Core Viewpoint - The influx of tariff revenues and immigration is contributing to a decrease in the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Tariff revenues are currently flowing into the economy, which is exerting downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - Immigration is also identified as a factor that is lowering the neutral interest rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pimco bets on a decline in UK inflation, expecting the Bank of England to cut rates more aggressively than current market expectations suggest [2][3] Group 1: Pimco's Position - Pimco, managing $2 trillion in assets, is overweight on 5-year UK government bonds, which will benefit from more aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Andrew Balls, Pimco's Chief Investment Officer, believes that the UK economy will not be an extreme outlier in terms of inflation [2] Group 2: Current Economic Context - The UK's current inflation rate stands at 3.8%, projected to be the highest among G7 countries this year, driven by significant food price increases [2] - Market traders expect the Bank of England to lower the policy rate from the current 4% only 1 to 2 times by the end of next year, with each cut being 25 basis points [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Pimco forecasts that UK inflation will improve by the end of next year, approaching the Bank of England's target of 2% [3] - The anticipated improvement in inflation will allow the policy rate to align closer to Pimco's estimated neutral rate of 2.75% [3] Group 4: Government Actions and Implications - The UK Chancellor has indicated that the government may introduce new taxes to address a fiscal shortfall of over £20 billion, which could further increase inflation [3] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor the upcoming budget and its potential impact on inflation through measures like tariffs and VAT [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a cautious yet optimistic stance on the current economic and inflation situation, with notable internal disagreements on the pace of monetary policy normalization [1][4]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The BOJ unanimously approved the initiation of selling its holdings of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs), with the sale scale expected to be roughly equivalent to the amount of stocks purchased from financial institutions [1]. Inflation Dynamics - Inflation is primarily driven by rising food prices, with core inflation expected to remain weak; current core inflation is estimated to be between 1.5% and 2.5% [2]. - Despite a recent consumer price index increase of 2.5% to 3.0%, policymakers believe this rise lacks sustainability, and core inflation may revert to lower levels once food price shocks dissipate [2]. Interest Rate Hikes - There is a growing call for interest rate hikes, with two members advocating for an immediate increase to 0.75%, citing that the current policy rate is below neutral levels and that the output gap is closing [3][4]. - Some members emphasize the importance of timely rate hikes from a risk management perspective, suggesting that the technical preparations for a policy shift are in place [3]. External Economic Influences - The external environment, particularly U.S. tariff policies, is a significant concern for BOJ members, with worries about indirect impacts on export industries [5]. - While some members view the U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a stabilizing factor, there are warnings about the potential negative effects of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports and production [5]. Asset Management Strategies - The focus is shifting towards optimizing the asset structure on the balance sheet, with calls for a "market impact neutral" asset portfolio [6]. - There are concerns that reducing the balance sheet to pre-financial crisis levels could impair short-term interest rate control, indicating a cautious approach to exiting unconventional monetary policies [6]. Gradual Adjustment Path - The majority of members advocate for a cautious approach, emphasizing the need to monitor key variables such as U.S. monetary policy shifts and the impact of declining corporate profits on wage negotiations [7]. - The BOJ's baseline scenario remains unchanged, indicating a temporary stagnation in economic growth and core inflation improvement, while some members propose decisive adjustments if inflation continues to exceed targets [7].

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to weakening economic growth and a soft labor market [1][3] - The recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% was supported, but future adjustments will depend on economic data [1][3] - Goolsbee describes the current economic environment as shrouded in "stagflation fog," indicating that any rate cuts should be gradual to avoid new economic volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns exist regarding the potential for tariffs implemented since April to push prices higher, complicating policy decisions [4] - The neutral interest rate, defined as neither suppressing nor stimulating the economy, is estimated at around 3.1%, suggesting about a 1% room for further rate cuts [4] - The Fed may consider two more rate cuts this year, one in each of the remaining quarters [4] Group 3 - Labor market signals are critical indicators, with a current unemployment rate of 4.3% remaining historically low despite a slowdown in hiring [6] - The Chicago Fed has launched a new labor monitoring system to better capture employment market changes, integrating eleven types of high-frequency data [6] - If the economy continues to move towards inflation targets, further rate cuts may be possible, but each step will require solid economic progress [6]

Group 1 - The core issue behind the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][5] - The market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term, influenced by Trump's potential nominations for a "dovish" shadow chairman [2][20] - The Federal Reserve can "set" but not "manipulate" policy interest rates, as interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][45] Group 2 - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [7] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs [7] - A decrease in the basic fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by 12-35 basis points [5][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to manipulate the yield curve is limited, and the trend of rising yield premiums on U.S. Treasuries is likely to continue [4] - The market tends to price in overly "dovish" expectations during rate hike cycles and overly "hawkish" expectations during rate cut cycles [4] - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" policies is crucial for the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space [5][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee regarding the future of U.S. monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy, emphasizing the complexities and uncertainties facing the economy as 2025 approaches [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Goolsbee believes that the slowdown in the U.S. labor market does not indicate an imminent recession, asserting that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong despite concerns [3]. - He highlights that inflation continues to be a significant challenge for U.S. economic policy, cautioning against an over-reliance on interest rate cuts, especially given the prolonged period of inflation above the Fed's target [3]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Inflation - Goolsbee points out that while tariffs from the Trump administration may have caused short-term price increases, their impact is not as severe as some economists fear regarding sustained inflation [3]. - He suggests that the negative effects of tariff policies may be underestimated, partly due to the lack of interest from major trading partners in retaliatory measures [3]. Group 3: Immigration Policy and Economic Growth - Concerns are raised about the Trump administration's adjustments to policies affecting high-skilled foreign labor, which could have long-term implications for U.S. economic growth and innovation [4]. - Goolsbee emphasizes that attracting scientific and technical talent is crucial for productivity growth, and overly strict immigration policies could undermine U.S. competitiveness in global technology innovation [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Stance - Goolsbee supports the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed but remains cautious about further aggressive cuts, advocating for a gradual approach towards a neutral interest rate level [4]. - He argues that maintaining a relatively neutral monetary policy is essential for ensuring long-term economic health rather than merely stimulating growth [4]. Group 5: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Goolsbee expresses the importance of the Fed's independence in controlling inflation, indicating that it should not be influenced by external political pressures [5]. - This stance is crucial for maintaining economic stability and avoiding excessive intervention in monetary policy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rates have been too high for too long and anticipates a shift towards a loosening cycle [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Treasury Secretary expresses surprise that Fed Chair Powell has not indicated a target for interest rates [1] - There is an expectation for a signal of a 100 to 150 basis point rate cut from Powell [1] - The need to lower rates to at least a neutral level is emphasized, with a belief that inflation will significantly decrease [1] Group 2: Economic Developments in Argentina - The U.S. is collaborating with Argentina to end tax incentives for commodity producers exchanging foreign currency [1] - The U.S. is prepared to purchase Argentine dollar bonds and provide substantial standby credit through a foreign exchange stabilization fund [1] - Negotiations are ongoing with Argentine officials regarding a $20 billion swap line with the Argentine central bank [1]

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）于本周二发表讲话，在经济增长放缓与就业市场疲软的双重挑战下，强调美联储需在降息路径上保持战略耐 心。尽管他上周与FOMC多数委员共同投票支持降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4%–4.25%，但他也指出，未来的利率决策仍将高度依赖经济数据的 演变。 视 157 i 古尔斯比认为，当前政策的关键在于将利率调整至"中性水平"，即既不抑制经济增长也不引发通胀压力的平衡点。 根据FOMC最新发布的点阵图，委员们对中性利率的预估中值约为3.1%，古尔斯比对此表示认同。这意味着当前利率水平仍高于中性区间约1个百分点，为 后续降息提供了政策空间。 他特别指出，尽管近期通胀有小幅回落，但过去四年半以来物价持续高于美联储2%的目标，且近期受关税政策影响仍存在不确定性。在启动降息周期的初 期阶段，步伐不宜过快，而应采取渐进策略，以避免政策过度宽松带来的风险。 除了通胀，劳动力市场表现亦是政策调整的重要参考。尽管当前失业率维持在4.3%的低位，但招聘节奏已呈现放缓迹象。为更精准地评估就业形势，芝加 哥联储于同日推出了新型劳动力市场监测系统，整合11类高频数据，实时追踪失业率预 ...

市场震荡，黄金价"过山车"：降息预期与央行措辞的拉锯战 2025年9月20日，黄金市场上演了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"。交易大厅里，买卖双方的心情如同被释放的野猫，既充满期待又焦躁不安。 一边是市场对降息的殷切期盼，另一边则是对美联储措辞的谨慎戒备，这种复杂情绪交织，将整个市场搅得天翻地覆。 当日纽约尾盘，现货黄金价格触及3684.93美元/盎司，劲扬1.12%；期货黄金亦跟随攀升至3719.42美元/盎司，涨幅同样为1.12%。这一波 上涨，让本周黄金累计涨幅逼近1%。表面上看，这似乎是一次漂亮的"失地收复"，然而，深入剖析，却能发现其中暗流涌动，支撑并不 稳固。正如一位在场内进行日内交易的操盘手私下透露："涨幅数据很好看，但筹码并不干净。"他话语中流露出的不安与庆幸，正是市 场真实写照的缩影。 回溯至9月17日，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%—4.25%区间。本应成为黄金的重大利好，因为降低名义 利率通常会压低持有美元的机会成本，从而提振金价。事实也如预期般，黄金盘中一度飙升至3707美元，创下历史新高。然而，好景不 不长，随后的两个交易日，金价出现连续回吐，短线大幅下挫。这是 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交易员们正在降低对美联储未来数月降息幅度的预期，这一转变表明，美联储官员 们发出的混乱信息已经影响了人们对货币政策的预期。 与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期权显示，市场参与者押注美联储在2025年仅再降息25个基点，且所谓的中 性利率(即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平)高于当前市场预期。这与上周形成了鲜明对比，当时 市场对年底前降息50个基点的预期升温。 中性利率预期在美联储9月会议后小幅上升 美联储上周将政策利率下调至4%至4.25%的区间，这是该机构今年的首次降息。 此次会议之后的几天里，大量交易瞄准的利率变动幅度低于目前掉期市场所定价的约两次25个基点的变 动幅度。从更长远的时间来看，期权市场还出现了暗示中性利率接近3%的交易。 利率互换市场目前预计中性利率约为2.95%，并预计今年剩余两次会议总共降息约40个基点。 美联储官员最近几周发表的更广泛的货币政策观点推动了这种转变，交易员纷纷对冲美联储大幅降息和 降息幅度较小的情景。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰本周表示，政策目前仍过于紧缩，并主张在2025年剩余的两次联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)会议上将利率下调125个基点。而亚特兰大联 ...