公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 55.45 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）9.78 | / 9.78 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）542 | / 542 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 62.18 / 48.22 | | 资产负债率(%) | 60.3% | | 市盈率 | 23.80 | | 第一大股东 | 上海春秋国际旅行社 | | | (集团)有限公司 | 研究所 证券研究报告：交通运输 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-08 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 春秋航空(601021) 低成本航空韧性凸显，扣税盾业绩保持坚挺 l 春秋航空披露 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报 春秋航空披露 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司营业 收入 200.0 亿元，同比增长 11.5%，实现归母净利润 22.7 亿元，同比 增长 0.7%，其中第四季度营业收入 40.2 亿元，同比增长 4.9%，归母 ...

2024年，春秋航空又一次交出了一份亮眼成绩单：春秋航空营业收入同比增长11.5%至200亿元，净利润同比增长0.69%至22.73亿元。另外，在最新披露的 2025年一季度业绩成绩单里，春秋航空以6.77亿元的净利润依然稳住了国内"最赚钱"航司的地位。 在当前的市场环境下，对成本的控制能力影响着公司盈利能力。2024年，春秋航空的单位成本为0.316元，较上年同期下降 3.3%；单位非油成本为0.205元， 较上年同期下降1.7%，较2019年同期下降0.1%。2024年第二大盈利上市航司吉祥航空的单位成本同比下降5.56%至0.34元，单位非油成本则同比下降8.7%至 0.21元。 中国航协此前发布的通报曾指出，2024年航空客运市场"旺丁不旺财"现象较为突出，经济舱平均票价同比2023年下降超过10%，全年客公里平均收益水平同 比下降12.5%。在行业普遍的票价水平同比下降的情况下，票价水平原本就更低的低成本航空，受到的影响也更小。 2024年，因供需变化和票价波动，大部分航空公司客公里收益出现大幅下跌。相较于三大航司客公里收益两位数的下跌幅度，春秋航空的下跌幅度仅为 6.5%，且相较于2019年同比仍 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in ticket pricing and is expected to optimize costs, which will aid in profit improvement [2][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.273 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year [3][8] - The company is positioned as a leading low-cost airline in China, with strong growth potential and improving operational performance [9] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 20 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 11.5% and 0.7% respectively [3][8] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, but the net profit decreased by 16.4% to 677 million yuan [2][3] Capacity and Utilization - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for 2024 increased by 16.1%, with domestic and international routes showing growth of 7.7% and 70.9% respectively [4] - The overall passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 18.8% in 2024, with domestic and international routes growing by 9.8% and 82.3% respectively [4] - The fleet size reached 129 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 8 aircraft, and the fleet utilization improved to 9.3 hours, up 0.8 hours year-on-year [5] Cost Management - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% in 2024, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by only 6.5%, indicating better price resilience compared to the industry [6] - The average fuel price decreased by 7% in 2024, contributing to a reduction in unit costs for the company [6] - The company expects further cost reductions, with both unit fuel and non-fuel costs declining, which will help offset the impact of falling ticket prices [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.712 billion yuan, 3.027 billion yuan, and 3.330 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 11.6%, and 10.0% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Views - The report highlights the performance of Spring Airlines, noting a Q1 2025 profit of 680 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. However, excluding tax shield effects, total profit increased by 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting confidence in the low-cost airline leader's ability to deliver results [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue is projected at 20 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.273 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.7% [2][6]. - **2025 Q1 Financials**: Revenue reached 5.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while net profit was 680 million, down 16.4% year-on-year. Excluding tax shield effects, net profit decreased by 16.8% [6][7]. - **Profit Distribution**: The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 per share, totaling 798 million, with a payout ratio of 35.09% [6]. Operational Metrics - **Capacity and Load Factor**: In 2024, Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 16.1% and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 18.8%, with a load factor of 91.5%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, ASK grew by 6.9% and RPK by 6.2%, with a load factor of 90.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [6][7]. - **Cost Structure**: In 2024, operating costs were 17.412 billion, up 12.2% year-on-year. Fuel costs were 6.14 billion, reflecting an 8.8% increase. For Q1 2025, operating costs were 4.45 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, with estimated fuel costs of 1.5 billion, down 5.4% [6][7]. Valuation and Price Target - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, estimating net profits of 2.79 billion and 3.37 billion, respectively. The target price is set at 65.6, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 53.68 [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 69.10 [6][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 5.317 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 677 million, a decrease of 16.4%. The revenue exceeded expectations due to a smaller decline in earnings than anticipated [1][2]. - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 20 billion, an increase of 11.5%, and a net profit of RMB 2.273 billion, a slight increase of 0.7%. Although ticket prices have not shown significant recovery, improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected to enhance revenue during peak seasons [1][3]. - The low-cost airline model has significant growth potential in China, and the company is positioned for growth with high operational efficiency and leading profitability metrics in the industry [1][4]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 5.317 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 677 million, down 16.4%. The performance was better than the expected RMB 600 million due to a smaller-than-expected decline in earnings [1][2]. - The unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by approximately 3.5% year-on-year, with overall capacity (ASK) increasing by 6.9% [2]. 2024 Outlook - The company is projected to have a rapid recovery in capacity, with ASK and RPK increasing by 16.1% and 18.8% respectively, while the load factor is expected to be 91.5%, up 2.1 percentage points. However, unit revenue per passenger kilometer is forecasted to decline by 6.5% [3]. - The operating cost for 2024 is expected to be RMB 17.412 billion, an increase of 12.2%, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 12.9% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 18% to RMB 2.726 billion, with a target price based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.5x, maintaining the target price at RMB 69.10 [4][6]. - The company’s growth potential remains strong due to the low penetration of low-cost airlines in China, and the operational efficiency is expected to improve as aircraft utilization rates recover [4][6].