Group 1: Railway Freight Transport - In the first four months, national railway freight volume reached 1.681 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.00%, with April's volume at 428 million tons, up 4.91% [1] - The China National Railway Group reported a freight volume of 1.298 billion tons in the same period, growing by 3.51%, with April's volume at 328 million tons, increasing by 5.12% [1] - Daily loading of national railways averaged 180,000 cars, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with coal transport reaching 672 million tons, including 464 million tons of electricity coal [1] Group 2: Logistics and Intermodal Transport - The railway sector is focusing on logistics total package services, promoting the shift of bulk cargo transport from road to rail, with 114 new logistics contracts signed in April, representing a 159% increase [1] - The "95306" platform allows for the acceptance of full logistics services for intermodal transport, facilitating a single settlement for rail and water transport fees [2] - The Daqin Railway's cargo transport volume showed signs of recovery, with a total of 123 million tons transported in the first four months, a decrease of 4.05%, but April saw a 0.99% increase [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Transport - In the first four months, the China-Europe Railway Express operated 6,042 trains, a decrease of 2.3%, but the decline rate is narrowing compared to the previous quarter [2] - The Central Asia Railway Express operated 4,725 trains, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, while the China-Laos Railway sent 197,600 tons of cross-border goods, up 7.6% [3] Group 4: Passenger Transport - National railway passenger volume reached 1.456 billion people in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 5.90%, with April's volume at 382 million, up 6.01% [3] - Daily passenger train operations averaged 11,200 trains in April, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3] - Cross-border passenger transport saw significant growth, with the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail sending 10.172 million cross-border passengers, up 14.7% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Daqin Railway (601006) [1] Core Views - The coal transportation volume is under pressure, leading to a decline in performance, but the company’s core asset value remains promising [1] - In April, the Daqin line's transportation volume turned positive, indicating potential recovery [1] - The company is viewed as a high-dividend stock with significant allocation value, especially given its core asset's strategic importance in China's energy transportation system [6] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 74,627 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, with net profit at 9,039 million, down 24.2% [2][6] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 17,801 million, a decline of 2.56%, and a net profit of 2,571 million, down 15.61% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.49, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2][6] Operational Performance - The freight business, which is the main revenue source, generated 53,441 million in 2024, a decrease of 12.73%, accounting for 72.88% of total revenue [6] - The company transported 70,622 million tons of goods in 2024, down 2.7% year-on-year [6] - Passenger transport revenue increased by 12.23% in 2024, reaching 10,010 million, with 46.41 million passengers transported [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 99,520 million and 103,360 million respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 104,260 million [6] - The target price is set at 7.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 6.66 yuan [2][6] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% based on 2025 earnings [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Daqin Railway, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][19]. Core Insights - The company's coal transportation volume has been under pressure, leading to a decline in performance. However, the Daqin line's transportation volume turned positive in April, and the core asset value of the company remains promising [1][6]. - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 746.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90.39 billion yuan, down 24.23% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the freight business, which is the main source of revenue, with a revenue of 534.41 billion yuan in 2024, down 12.73% year-on-year [6]. - The passenger transport business showed good growth, with revenue of 100.1 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.23% year-on-year [6]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 787.43 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 99.52 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery from previous declines [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 57.31% for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.1% based on the closing price on May 9, 2025 [6]. Operational Performance - The Daqin line completed a freight volume of 39.215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery with a 0.99% increase in April 2025 [6]. - The average daily loading and unloading operations were reported at 29,350 and 23,703 cars, respectively, with a freight car turnaround time of 2.3 days [6]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Daqin Railway is a high-dividend stock with significant allocation value, emphasizing its strategic position in China's energy transportation system [6]. - The target price is set at 7.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 6.66 yuan [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region's logistics network through rail freight services is enhancing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of goods transportation, facilitating both exports and imports across Eurasia [1][2][5]. Group 1: Rail Freight Network Development - The Jing-Jin-Ji region has established a comprehensive rail freight network that connects with road and water transport, providing flexible logistics options for customers [1]. - In 2024, the Beijing Railway Bureau's rail freight network is expected to serve 18,833 customers, transporting 36,187.7 million tons of goods, marking a 3.4% year-on-year increase [1]. Group 2: Export Trends - The regular operation of China-Europe and China-Central Asia freight trains has shifted the export focus from traditional goods to strategic emerging industries, with over 50% of exports now comprising new energy vehicles, photovoltaic components, and precision instruments [2]. - Popular products exported via these freight trains include automotive parts and high-value solar components, indicating a diversification in the export structure [2]. Group 3: Sea-Rail Intermodal Transport - The sea-rail intermodal transport system is effectively connecting Tianjin Port with inland cities, facilitating the import of various consumer goods such as flour, cooking oil, and beverages [5][7]. - The return cargo from Central Asia and Russia has significantly increased, providing a stable supply of raw materials for local processing companies [7]. Group 4: Efficiency Improvements - The introduction of the Port City Train has reduced transportation time significantly, allowing for "point-to-point" delivery between Tianjin Port and inland cities, thus enhancing logistics efficiency [8]. - The transition from road to rail transport for heavy goods, such as steel products, has improved delivery times and reduced costs for companies [8][9]. Group 5: Integrated Logistics Solutions - The "one order" system for intermodal transport has streamlined logistics operations, allowing customers to submit a single request for comprehensive logistics services, which reduces transportation time by 5 days and lowers costs by 4% [11]. - The coordination among various departments has improved the handling of large shipments, ensuring timely delivery and minimizing potential losses [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report on the specific company is "Outperform the Market" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The specific company is a global leader in rail transit equipment, benefiting from significant state-owned enterprise reforms and emphasizing dividends and market value management. It has maintained stable revenue and profit growth since the merger of "South North Car" in 2015, with a focus on optimizing its business structure to support profitability [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Rail Transit Equipment Leader - The specific company is the largest and most comprehensive rail transit equipment supplier globally, with products that meet world-class standards and are exported to nearly 100 countries [17][18]. - The company is backed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a significant shareholding by the parent group, reflecting confidence in its long-term development [18]. 2. Railway Equipment: Clear Construction Planning - The railway construction sector has a strong planning characteristic, with expected fixed asset investments increasing by 8% year-on-year in 2025, supporting vehicle procurement and maintenance needs [6]. - The demand for new high-speed trains is expected to remain robust, with an estimated procurement of 258 new trains in 2025, and maintenance needs projected to exceed 500 units annually from 2025 to 2030 [6][7]. 3. Financial Data and Forecasts - The specific company achieved revenues of 234,262 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. The net profit for the same year was 11,712 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% [8]. - Forecasts indicate revenues of 256,330 million yuan in 2024, with a projected growth of 9.4%, and net profits expected to reach 13,474 million yuan, a 15% increase [8][10]. 4. New Industries: High-Speed Rail Technology Synergy - The company views clean energy equipment as a significant growth area, with strong growth in wind power orders and a focus on new energy vehicles and materials [10][21]. - The new materials sector is expected to contribute more to the company's performance as new production facilities come online [10]. 5. Profitability and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 14,748 million yuan in 2025, with a reasonable valuation range of 8.22 to 9.76 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 16-19 times [10][11].