Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short term, with continuous reserve auctions and upcoming new - season corn, the market is in a state of slight decline but with limited downside space. In the long - term, potential import increases and new - season supply increments may impact prices [3]. - For starch, it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term and remains bearish in the long term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3]. - For sugar, the international market has potential for a rebound, while the domestic market faces pressure from upcoming large - scale imports [6]. - For cotton, it has entered a volatile phase, and its downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks, with focus on demand changes [7]. - For eggs, prices may rise again with upcoming festival demands, but high inventory may limit the upside [7]. - For apples, the new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, and the current consumption is in a slow season [10]. - For pigs, the short - term spot market is weakly volatile, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term policy expectations [10]. Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, corn prices in some regions showed minor changes, with a 6 - yuan decrease in the price in潍坊. Starch prices remained stable in some regions, and the base difference decreased by 3 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, reserve auctions and upcoming new - season corn led to a slight weakening of corn prices, but the downside is limited. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, potential import increases and lower new - season costs may impact prices [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, sugar prices in some regions decreased, and the base difference decreased by 35. The import profit from Thailand decreased by 125, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 387 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar market may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production. The domestic market faces pressure from upcoming imports with a price range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 85. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 6, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 52 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered a volatile phase, and its downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, egg prices in some regions remained stable, and the base difference decreased by 2 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand resonance in July, then回调. With upcoming festival demands, prices may rise again, but high inventory may limit the upside [7]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year, and the current consumption is in a slow season with low inventory and slow de - stocking [10]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, pig prices in some regions showed minor changes, and the base difference decreased by 90 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot market is weakly volatile, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term policy expectations [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market supply increases slightly and prices weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, potential import growth and new - season supply increase may pressure prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, it follows raw material price fluctuations, with high inventory and is expected to be weak. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure affects prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, large imports will put pressure on the market [6]. - Cotton: It is in a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risks, the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: After a price rebound and correction, demand may pick up in mid - August, but high inventory may limit the upside [9]. - Apples: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable [12]. - Pigs: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is not improved. There is medium - term supply pressure, and futures need spot verification [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a maximum decrease of 8 yuan/ton in Weifang. Starch processing profit increased by 22 yuan [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve auctions and new - season corn impact the corn market. Starch is affected by raw material prices and high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, sugar prices in major regions decreased, and import profit decreased significantly, with a maximum reduction of 77 yuan [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian supply and domestic imports influence the sugar market [6]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 40 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 128 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a waiting phase for demand verification, and the downside is limited under certain conditions [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, egg prices in major production areas increased, with a maximum increase of 0.22 yuan. The basis increased by 141 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand factors, then corrected, and may rise again with upcoming festivals, but high inventory is a constraint [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis for different contracts changed significantly [11][12]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season apples are in the growth stage, and consumption is in the off - season [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, pig prices in some regions were stable or changed slightly, and the basis increased by 40 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is weak. There is medium - term supply pressure and policy expectations [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market is slightly oversupplied and prices may weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, import orders may increase, and new - season supply growth may pressure prices [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, it will continue to oscillate weakly due to high inventories and raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, high inventories and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure weighs on prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, with a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [6]. - **Cotton**: It has entered an oscillating phase, and without major macro - risks, the price downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [9]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand resonance, then回调. From mid - August, demand may drive prices up again, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. - **Apples**: The new - season output may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low, with recent price stability [13]. - **Pigs**: The short - term spot price is weakly oscillating. There is still supply pressure in the medium - term, but there are policy expectations in the long - term. Futures prices need spot verification [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, corn prices in some regions decreased slightly, and starch prices had no significant change. The corn basis increased by 12, and the starch processing profit increased by 1 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve auctions eased the market atmosphere, and new - season corn is approaching. Starch inventories are high, and production is still loss - making [3]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, spot prices in some regions decreased, the basis increased by 74, and the import profit decreased by 89. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 70 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian supply pressure affects international prices, and a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in China, pressuring the futures price [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the cotton price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 95. The 32S spinning profit increased by 31 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered an oscillating phase, and the price downside is limited without major macro - risks [9]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the egg price in some regions was stable, the basis decreased by 39, and the price of some substitutes was stable [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded and then回调. From mid - August, demand may drive prices up, but high inventory may limit the increase [10]. Apples - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the apple spot price was stable, and the basis decreased significantly [12][13]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season output may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low, with recent price stability [13]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: From August 4 - 8, the pig price in some regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 180 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot price is weakly oscillating. There is still supply pressure in the medium - term, but there are policy expectations in the long - term. Futures prices need spot verification [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on August 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for August 4 with no data), and in Jinzhou it was stable at 2290; the price in Weifang was stable at 2458, and in Shekou it decreased by 10 to 2410 - The basis of corn increased by 13 to 6, the trade profit decreased by 10, and the import profit increased by 39 to 376 - The price of starch in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2900 and 2980 respectively; the basis increased by 4 to 191, and the processing profit remained at -71 [2] Market Analysis - For corn, the continuous auction of reserve imported corn this week had a transaction rate of 27% and 31%. The import auction aims to relieve supply tension, not to suppress domestic prices. With a low transaction rate, the increase in market supply is limited. Currently, supply mainly relies on old - crop inventory and wheat substitution. In the short term, with a tight balance sheet in the old - crop season, port corn inventory continued to decline, and the current price has strong support. In the long - term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders. Also, the planting cost of new - season corn has decreased compared to the old crop, and the increase in supply after the large - scale listing of new grain may put downward pressure on new - season corn prices - For starch, this week, starch quotes showed differentiation, with prices in the Northeast decreasing and those in Shandong increasing. The transaction situation improved slightly, and inventory remained at a high level. In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and deep - processing is still in a loss situation. After a round of correction, the downside support is relatively strong, and it is expected to have a weak rebound in the short term. In the long - term, high finished - product starch inventory restricts the enterprise's price - adjustment space, and with the expected decline in new - season raw material costs, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou increased by 50 to 6080, in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030, and in Kunming decreased by 15 to 5865 - The basis in Liuzhou increased by 65 to 362, the import profit from Thailand increased by 39 to 334, and from Brazil increased by 39 to 517. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 19373 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and supply pressure is weighing on international sugar prices. The market has already priced in the expected increase in production due to a high sugar - making ratio. As of now, due to continuously low yield per unit and sugar extraction rate year - on - year, the uncertainty of Brazil's later - stage production has increased, and there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar. It is necessary to continuously monitor the weather conditions in the producing areas and the bi - weekly report data - Domestically, the market generally follows raw sugar, but due to large - scale price fixing by processing sugar mills, the fluctuation range of Zhengzhou sugar is smaller than that of raw sugar. A large amount of imported sugar is about to arrive at ports, and the corresponding out - of - quota import cost is in the range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, putting significant pressure on the upper side of the futures market [6] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 60 to 14845, and the import profit of imported M - grade US cotton decreased - The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 123 to 9032 - The price of Vietnamese yarn remained at 2.49, the spot price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 50 to 20650, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 13 to 265, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 113 to -937 [7] Market Analysis - For cotton, as the commodity market sentiment weakened, the long - position liquidation in the 09 contract led to a strong backwardation market. However, with the 9 - 1 spread reaching -200 and still far from delivery, it is advisable to reduce positions and take profits. In the future, the market will test the recovery of downstream demand, and if it performs well, it is expected to be reflected in mid - to late August [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the egg prices in Hebei decreased by 0.17 to 2.87, in Liaoning decreased by 0.18 to 2.80, in Shandong decreased by 0.15 to 2.80, in Henan decreased by 0.10 to 2.85, and in Hubei decreased by 0.27 to 3.33 - The basis decreased by 54 to 175 - The price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05 to 3.45, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05 to 3.95, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.27 to 20.33 [9] Market Analysis - In mid - July, high temperatures led to a decline in the egg - laying rate of laying hens, and after the plum - rain season, the concentrated replenishment demand at all levels drove the egg price to rebound rapidly from a low level. Later, due to the release of some cold - storage eggs and unfavorable weather for storage and transportation, the market sales slowed down, and the egg price corrected. It is expected that starting from mid - August, the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and school openings will gradually start, and the recovery in demand may drive the spot price up again. However, the early rebound in the spot price in mid - June delayed the process of capacity reduction, and high inventory and cold - storage egg inventory may limit the height of the subsequent seasonal rebound. In addition, attention should be paid to potential factors such as disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations that may affect the egg price [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 - The national apple inventory decreased by 59, Shandong inventory decreased by 38, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 68 - The 1 - month basis decreased to 56, the 5 - month basis decreased to -38, and the 10 - month basis decreased to -26 [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new - crop season, apple bagging in various producing areas has ended, and the apples are in the growth stage, waiting for bag removal. In the western region, the previous gale weather led to uneven fruit setting. Although the yield per unit is expected to increase compared to last year, the phenomenon of tree felling in recent years is relatively serious. In the Shandong producing area, the output in this season is expected to decrease by about 20%. Nationally, the output in the new - crop season will not differ much from last year, and subsequent situations need to be continuously monitored. On the consumption side, the apple consumption in the 2024/25 season has entered the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The inventory reduction in the main producing areas has slowed down recently. In terms of spot prices, the price has been stable recently, and seasonal fruits have occupied the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [13] Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of live pigs in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.30 to 14.08, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.30 to 14.05, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.35 to 14.02, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.45 to 14.25, and in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.50 to 14.30 - The basis decreased by 185 to 140 [13] Market Analysis - The reduction of live - pig production capacity is insufficient, and long - term supply pressure still exists. The futures market has frequently seen emotional rallies, trading on the expected seasonal rebound of the spot market and macro - and micro - policy expectations, which still need to be verified by the spot market. After the recent cooling of macro - sentiment, the market is trading on weak reality. In the short term, the spot market is in a weak and volatile game. There is pressure on live - pig slaughter in August, but there are also supporting factors in the later seasonal period. Continuous attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [13]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the Research Center's Agricultural Products Team on August 4, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - For corn, from July 28 to August 1, prices in Changchun remained stable at 2230, in Jinzhou remained at 2290, in Weifang decreased by 6 to 2458, and in Shekou increased by 10 to 2420. The basis changed by -9, trade profit increased by 10, and import profit decreased by 5 [2] - For starch, from July 28 to August 1, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2900, in Weifang remained at 2980, the basis increased by 62, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Reserve imported corn is being continuously auctioned, with this week's成交 rates at 27% and 31%. The import auction aims to ease supply shortages without suppressing domestic prices. With low成交 rates, the supply increase is limited. Currently, supply relies on old - crop stocks and wheat substitution. In the short - term, with a tight balance sheet, port corn inventories are decreasing, supporting current prices. In the long - term, if import profitability persists, it may increase future import orders, and new - crop supply may pressure prices [3] - Starch: This week, starch prices diverged, with a decrease in Northeast China and an increase in Shandong. Inventory remains high. In the short - term, prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and after a correction, there is support for a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs are bearish for starch prices [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price in Liuzhou decreased by 70 to 6030, in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030, and in Kunming decreased by 20 to 5880. The basis in Liuzhou decreased by 10, import profit from Thailand decreased by 15, from Brazil decreased by 15, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring sugar prices. Due to lower - than - expected yields and sugar extraction rates, there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, prices follow international trends, but the amplitude is smaller. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, there is pressure on the futures price [6] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 15 to 14785, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 133, the price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 100 to 20700, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 211, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 84 [7] Market Analysis - With a weakening commodity atmosphere, there was a strong backwardation in cotton futures. Now that the 9 - 1 spread has reached - 200, it's advisable to reduce positions. Future prices depend on downstream demand recovery, which may be reflected in mid - to late August [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, while in Hubei it decreased by 0.11 to 3.60. The basis increased by 58 to 229, and the price of substitute products such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, while the price of live pigs increased by 0.15 to 20.60 [9] Market Analysis - In mid - July, high temperatures and post - plum - rain restocking drove up egg prices, but later, cold - storage egg release and unfavorable weather led to a price correction. Starting from mid - August, holiday and school - opening demand may drive prices up again, but high inventory may limit the increase [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800. The national inventory increased by 62 to 57.61, Shandong inventory increased by 7 to 35.27, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 56 to 15.34. The 1 - month basis increased by 115 to 115, the 5 - month basis increased by 107 to 0, and the 10 - month basis increased by 294 to 42 [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new crop season, apples are in the growth stage. Western regions may have increased yields but face tree - felling issues, and Shandong may have a 20% yield reduction. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking [13] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, prices in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10 to 14.38, in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.10 to 14.35, in Shandong Linyi increased by 0.15 to 14.37, in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.25 to 14.70, in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.20 to 14.80, and the basis increased by 120 to 325 [13] Market Analysis - There is insufficient capacity reduction, and long - term supply pressure persists. Futures prices are affected by seasonal expectations and policy hopes, but now they are trading based on weak reality. Short - term spot prices are in a weak oscillation, with pressure in August but also seasonal support later [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, in Changchun, the price remained 2230; in Jinzhou, it stayed at 2300 - 2310; in Weifang, it increased by 10 to 2454; in Shekou, it remained 2430. The corn basis increased by 17, and the import profit increased by 23. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 17, and the processing profit remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - For corn, reserve - imported corn auctions continued this week with成交 rates of 27% and 28%, easing supply tightness. In the short - term, the supply pressure increase from auctions is limited. There may be a supply - demand gap before new crops are launched. In the long - term, if import profit persists, it may increase forward import orders, and new - season supply may pressure prices. For starch, the price was stable this week with slightly better transactions but still in inventory accumulation. In the short - term, it may have a weak rebound; in the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs are bearish [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 22, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 45, from Brazil decreased by 46, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [7] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring sugar prices. Due to lower - than - expected yields and sugar extraction rates, there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, it follows international prices with smaller fluctuations. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [7] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 55 to 15165, the import profit decreased, the warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 72, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 26, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 58 [9] Market Analysis - Cotton prices rose due to inventory reduction at the end of the season, but downstream demand is weak, and textile profits are at a low level. Whether the upward trend can continue needs verification in the September peak season. Uncertainty exists in single - sided trading, and 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, while in Hubei, it remained 3.73. The basis decreased by 442 [14] Market Analysis - Egg spot prices rebounded seasonally, with large - sized eggs rising more. However, high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may affect the price increase rhythm and limit the rebound height [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7800. The 1 - month basis changed from 283 to 8, the 5 - month basis changed from 319 to - 46, and the 10 - month basis changed from 144 to - 108 [16][17] Market Analysis - In the new apple season, the yield in western regions may increase but with serious tree - felling, and Shandong may have a 20% reduction. The consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. Spot prices have risen significantly this year, and the impact of post - bag - removal conditions needs attention [17] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased, and the basis decreased by 225 [17] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need spot verification. Short - term supply is sufficient, demand is average, and seasonal support exists. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [17]

| | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/29 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/22 | 2230 | 2310 | 2460 | 2440 | -12 | -10 | 358 | 2850 | 2950 | 137 | -49 | | 2025/07/23 | 2230 | 2310 | 2460 | 2430 | -11 | -20 | 357 | 2850 | 2950 | 130 | -62 | | 2025/07/24 | 2230 | 2310 | 2446 | 2430 | -8 | -20 | 357 | 2850 | 2950 | 136 | -62 | | 2025/07/25 | - | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: In the short term, the supply - demand gap exists before the new crop is launched, and the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support. In the long - term, the import profit may increase future imports, and the new - season supply increase may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - Starch: In the short term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material cost expectations are bearish for starch prices [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainty, and there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar puts pressure on the upper limit of the futures price [6]. - Cotton: The end - of - season inventory reduction drives up prices, but downstream demand is weak. The upward trend needs verification in the peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for the month - spread [8]. - Eggs: The spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [15]. - Apples: The new - season output may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Keep an eye on the situation after bag - removal [18]. - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need spot price verification. Short - term supply is sufficient, and seasonal support exists [18]. 3. Summary by Product Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions changed. The basis of corn changed from - 10 to - 1, and the processing profit of starch remained at - 62 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve corn auctions ease supply tension in the short term. In the long - term, import and new - season supply may affect prices. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory limiting price adjustment [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou remained at 6120 yuan/ton. The basis and import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 298 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Imported sugar arrival in China puts pressure on the futures price [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70 yuan/ton. The import profit decreased by 182 yuan/ton, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 73 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: End - of - season inventory reduction drives up cotton prices, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, egg prices in some regions increased, and the basis increased. The prices of substitutes such as chickens and pigs also changed [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Seasonal factors drive up egg prices, but high cold - storage inventory and high hen存栏 may limit the rebound [15]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The basis for different contracts decreased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season output may not vary much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [18]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, pig prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis decreased by 70 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure exists. Futures prices need spot price verification, and short - term supply is sufficient [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on July 23, 2025, by the agricultural products team of the research center [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2230 from July 16 - 22, while prices in other regions had minor changes. The overall change in the base price was -2, and the import profit increased by 18. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable at 2850 and 2950 respectively, with the base price decreasing by 4 and the processing profit decreasing by 3 [3] Market Analysis - Corn: Reserve imported corn auctions had成交 rates of 25% and 17% this week. Short - term supply increased slightly, but there is still a supply - demand gap before the new crop is on the market. In the long - term, if the import profit persists, it may increase future import orders, and the new crop supply may put downward pressure on prices. Starch: This week, starch quotes were relatively stable, and the transaction situation improved slightly, but the industry continued to accumulate inventory. Short - term prices may have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou remained stable at 6120, and the base price increased by 16. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 78 [7] Market Analysis - Internationally, the Brazilian sugar market is under supply pressure during the peak crushing season, but there is a potential for a corrective rebound. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, but its volatility is smaller. With a large amount of imported sugar about to arrive, the upper limit of the futures price is under pressure [7] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20. The import profit and other indicators also had corresponding changes, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 5 [8] Market Analysis - Cotton prices rose rapidly due to low inventory and a hot commodity market, but downstream profits are at a historical low. With an expected increase in new crop production, prices may回调, and it is advisable to wait and see [8] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 16 - 22, egg spot prices rebounded from the low level. The prices in various production areas increased, with the base price increasing by 10. The prices of substitutes such as white - feather broilers increased by 0.05, while the price of live pigs decreased by 0.06 [9] Market Analysis - Egg spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, mainly driven by seasonal factors. However, high cold - storage egg inventory and a high egg - laying hen inventory base may limit the height of the rebound [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable at 8100. The national inventory decreased by 6, and the base prices for different months also decreased [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new crop season, apple production in different regions has different trends. The consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The spot price has risen significantly this year, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [13] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the spot prices in various production areas decreased slightly, and the base price decreased by 65 [13] Market Analysis - Pig prices rebounded after a high - level decline, but demand support is limited. Long - term over - supply pressure remains, and short - term inventory accumulation is expected. Futures prices are affected by emotions and need further verification from the spot market [13]

| | | | 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/22 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2025/07/15 2230 2300 2400 2430 5 -10 409 2850 2950 184 -39 2025/07/16 2230 2300 2420 2430 7 -10 401 2850 2950 166 -46 2025/07/17 2230 2290 2440 2430 -6 0 395 2850 2950 159 -46 2025/07/18 2230 2300 2450 2430 -14 -10 402 2850 2950 147 -46 2025/07/21 2230 2310 2450 2440 -10 -10 411 2850 2950 141 -46 变化 0 10 0 10 4 0 9 0 0 -6 0 【行情分析】： 玉米：储备进口玉米持续拍卖，本周成交率分别为 25% 和 17%。贸易商同步兑现部分库存，市场供应紧张氛围得到一定缓和。从短期看，抛储 主要旨在缓解供需紧张 ...