Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The corn spot market shows a differentiated trend this week, with port prices falling and production area prices rising. In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong, while in the long - term, there is a possibility of a phased decline [3] - The starch price is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing, and the weak spot market is driving the futures price down. In the short - term, the futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price; in the long - term, it may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - For cotton, the low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm. If the elimination accelerates, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [11] - For apples, the national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, less than last year. The spot market has a shortage of high - quality goods, and the futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] - For pigs, the spot price fell over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The improvement of long - term sentiment depends on further de - stocking in the short - term [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while some port prices declined. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [2] - **Analysis**: The short - term spot is strong, and the long - term price may decline due to potential supply pressure [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased. The import profit decreased by 107, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3000 [4] - **Analysis**: The short - term futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, and the long - term may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 35, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 154 [6] - **Analysis**: The demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price in Hubei increased by 0.06, and the basis increased by 51.00 [10] - **Analysis**: The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm, and accelerated elimination is beneficial to the second - quarter egg price [11] Apples - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained unchanged, and the national inventory decreased by 102.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 131.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 41.00 [14][15] - **Analysis**: The futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 100.00 [15] - **Analysis**: There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, and the long - term improvement depends on short - term de - stocking [15]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Agricultural Products Morning Report [17] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2160, while prices in Jinzhou increased by 10, and prices in Weifang and Shekou remained unchanged. Corn basis increased by 26, and trade profit decreased by 10 and import profit decreased by 8. [2] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, basis increased by 13, and processing profit remained unchanged. [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend, with port prices falling and production area prices rising. Starch prices are expected to remain stable due to seasonal consumption support and supply constraints. [3] - Medium - long term: For corn, if downstream consumption weakens seasonally and intermediaries release hoarded grains, prices may decline. For starch, the key factor for pricing is whether enterprise inventories continue to decline after the seasonal peak. [3] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - Sugar prices in Liuzhou decreased by 20, Nanning by 50, and Kunming by 25. Liuzhou basis increased by 17, Thai import profit increased by 62, and Brazilian import profit increased by 62. [5] Market Analysis - Short - term: The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing, and sugar mill quotes are falling rapidly, driving the futures price down. The futures price can still refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. [5] - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will seek the cost of out - of - quota imports. [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - The price of 3128 cotton increased by 35, and the spot price of cotton yarn increased by 5. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 1, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 32. [8] Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, cotton demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions. [8] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - Egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and Shandong remained stable, Henan remained stable, and Hubei increased by 0.05. The basis decreased by 52, the price of white - feather broilers remained stable, yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.08. [12] Market Analysis - The egg inventory inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. If the culling of laying hens accelerates, it will speed up the capacity reduction process. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, a concentrated culling is expected, which is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter. [12] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - The price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable at 8900. [15][16] Market Analysis - The national apple storage is basically completed. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, a decrease of more than 10% compared to last year. The spot market lacks high - quality goods, and the price difference between good and bad apples is widening. The futures price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. [16] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - Pig prices in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, Hubei Xiangyang by 0.05, Shandong Linyi by 0.10, Anhui Hefei by 0.30, and Jiangsu Nantong by 0.20. The basis increased by 210. [16] Market Analysis - Pig spot prices were strong on weekends. With the approaching of the Winter Solstice, the sustainability of the spot price rebound should be monitored. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival, but the near - term supply pressure is still large. The improvement of long - term sentiment depends on near - term capacity and inventory reduction. [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report author: Agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit and Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | 2025/12/12 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 8 | 30 | 238 | 2750 | 2820 | 179 | -23 | | 2025/12/15 | 2160 | 2270 | 2230 | 2430 | 42 | 10 | 253 | 2750 | 2820 | 192 | -21 | | 2025/12/16 | 2160 | 2240 | 2230 | 2420 | 20 | 30 | 252 | 2750 | 2800 | 203 | -21 | | 2025/12/17 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | - | 24 | - | - | 2750 | 2800 | 193 | - | | Change | 0 | -10 | 20 | - | 4 | - | - | 0 | 0 | -10 | - | [2] Market Analysis - **Corn**: This week, corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend, with port prices falling and production area prices fluctuating strongly. In the short term, the grain sales progress in the production area increased year-on-year, but the channel inventory was still at a moderately low level. Before the channel inventory officially accumulates, the spot is expected to remain strong. In the medium and long term, structural changes need to be focused on. Since the new grain was listed, there has been no expected concentrated selling pressure in the market. It is judged from the current market dynamics that more grain sources may be hoarded by middlemen, resulting in the postponement of short-term supply pressure. If the downstream consumption demand enters a seasonal decline channel in the future, and the grain sources hoarded by middlemen are released intensively, the market selling pressure may increase significantly, and the corn price may weaken periodically [3]. - **Starch**: In the short term, supported by seasonal consumption, the downstream replenishment demand drives enterprises to destock stably. At the same time, in an environment where raw material supply is limited, the industry's willingness to support prices intensifies, and the starch price is expected to remain stable. In the medium and long term, changes in the downstream consumption rhythm need to be focused on, which will be the key supporting factor for the price trend. After the seasonal peak season, whether the enterprise inventory will continue to destock will be the key factor for future starch pricing [3]. Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | 2025/12/12 | 5460 | 5370 | 5295 | 246 | 139 | 318 | 2101 | | 2025/12/15 | 5450 | 5360 | 5295 | 243 | 177 | 356 | 2101 | | 2025/12/16 | 5420 | 5340 | 5260 | 287 | 188 | 367 | 2101 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [5] Market Analysis - **Sugar**: The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing successively. This week, the sugar factory quotations dropped rapidly, and the weak spot market drove the futures market down. In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the futures pricing can still refer to the cost of domestic sugar and the spot price. In the medium and long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will seek the cost of out-of-quota imports downward. Pay attention to weather risks and policy changes [6]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M-grade US Cotton | Cotlook A (FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot Price | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | 73.7 | 74.2 | 1719 | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | 2025/12/12 | 14630 | 73.5 | 74.0 | 1767 | 6817 | 2.53 | 20990 | 503 | -371 | | 2025/12/15 | 14690 | 73.4 | 73.9 | 1853 | 6956 | 2.53 | 20990 | 510 | -434 | | 2025/12/16 | 14715 | 73.5 | 73.9 | 1884 | 7221 | 2.53 | 20990 | 537 | -460 | | 2025/12/17 | 14715 | 72.6 | - | - | - | 2.53 | 20990 | 543 | -460 | | Change | 0 | -1 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [9] Market Analysis - **Cotton**: The initial inventory is relatively low year-on-year, offsetting most of the increase in production. The focus is on subsequent consumption. Since the domestic textile production is still expanding and the recent profits are good, coupled with the good results of the China-US Busan talks and the mutual reduction of tariffs again, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, the demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long-term long positions [9]. Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White-Feathered Broiler | Yellow-Feathered Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | 2025/12/12 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.11 | 510 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.50 | | 2025/12/15 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.11 | 490 | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/16 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/17 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.43 | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | [12] Market Analysis - **Eggs**: The inflection point of inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key driver for the future decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If the culling of laying hens accelerates, it will directly increase the downward slope of the inventory curve, which means that the process of capacity reduction will speed up. According to a survey in Hebei, the proportion of laying hens over 400 days old is currently about 10%-20%. Farmers still have expectations for the Spring Festival stocking market. If the spot price remains low before the Laba Festival, it is expected that this batch of chickens will be culled intensively, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second Grade | Shaanxi 70 General Goods | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | 2025/12/12 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -841.00 | -619.00 | 432.00 | | 2025/12/15 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -611.00 | -332.00 | 709.00 | | 2025/12/16 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -606.00 | -229.00 | 749.00 | | 2025/12/17 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [15][16] Market Analysis - **Apples**: The national apple storage is basically over. According to data from the Shaanxi Fruit Service Center, the estimated national cold storage storage this year is about 55%, a decrease of more than 10% compared with last year, with an estimated storage volume of 7-7.8 million tons. Among them, the storage in Shaanxi is 50%-55%, a decrease of 10%-15% compared with last year; the storage in Gansu is 70%, a decrease of 20%-30% compared with last year; and the storage in Shandong is 50%, a decrease of 10% compared with last year. Currently, high-quality apples are scarce in the spot market, and the price difference between high-quality and low-quality apples is widening. Recently, the futures market follows the delivery logic and maintains a high-level shock. In the medium term, due to the large number of competing products on the consumption side, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [16]. Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | 2025/12/12 | 11.38 | 11.40 | 11.52 | 11.90 | 12.00 | 55 | | 2025/12/15 | 11.43 | 11.60 | 11.62 | 12.05 | 12.10 | 125 | | 2025/12/16 | 11.43 | 11.55 | 11.52 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 80 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | [16] Market Analysis - **Pigs**: The spot price was strong over the weekend. Snowfall and cooling in the north, combined with the weekend effect, and the continuous increase in consumption in the south. As the Winter Solstice approaches, pay attention to the sustainability of the spot price rebound. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increasing before the Spring Festival, and there may still be a short-term supply-demand mismatch, but the near-term supply pressure is still large, waiting for the peak season to be tested. The improvement of capacity reduction has improved the long-term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. The improvement of the long-term expectation depends on the near-term capacity and inventory reduction. Continuously pay attention to whether there will be significant expected differences in the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, the spot price is expected to remain strong as the channel inventory is at a neutral - low level despite the decline in spot quotes. Long - term, if downstream consumption weakens seasonally and middlemen release hoarded grains, the price may decline [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends [2]. - **Sugar**: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. - **Cotton**: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. - **Eggs**: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. - **Apples**: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. - **Pigs**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while the price in Jinzhou decreased by 30, and the price in Shekou decreased by 10. The basis changed by - 22, and the trade profit increased by 20 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the spot price is expected to be strong as the channel inventory is not over - stocked. Long - term, the price may decline if downstream demand weakens and middlemen release hoarded grains [1]. Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, and the price in Weifang decreased by 20. The basis increased by 11, and the processing profit remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm is the key [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, and the basis increased by 44. The import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 11, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2101 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 265. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 27, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 26 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02. The basis increased, and the prices of substitutes such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained relatively stable [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national cold - storage inventory data shows a decrease compared to last year [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Henan Kaifeng remained at 11.43. The basis decreased by 45 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong before the channel inventory accumulates. In the long - term, if downstream demand weakens seasonally and middlemen release stocks, prices may decline [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets yield increases. With expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, long - term demand is expected to improve, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8]. - Eggs: The inflection point of inventory has emerged. If older hens are culled before Laba, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [12]. - Apples: National cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality goods. The futures market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [16]. - Pigs: Spot prices are strong on weekends. There is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the sustainability of the price rebound and factors that may cause expectation differences [16]. - Sugar: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, and spot weakness drives the futures down. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, prices may decline [5]. 3. Content Summaries by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while that in Jinzhou increased by 20 to 2270. The starch processing profit increased by 2 to - 21 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn spot shows a differentiated trend. In the short - term, the supply is expected to be strong; in the long - term, prices may decline if demand weakens and stocks are released. Starch prices are expected to be stable in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 10 to 5450, and the import profit from Thailand increased by 38 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, causing spot and futures prices to decline. In the long - term, global market conditions will affect prices [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 60 to 14690, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 63 to - 434 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Low initial inventory and positive factors such as production expansion and tariff reduction are expected to improve demand next year [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02, and the base difference decreased by 20 to 490 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The inflection point of inventory has appeared. Culling older hens before Laba may benefit second - quarter prices [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900 [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: National cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The futures market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.05 to 11.43, and the base difference increased by 70 to 125 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices are strong on weekends. Pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound and factors that may cause expectation differences [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 15, 2025 [2] - Report type: Agricultural products morning report [19] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: Changchun remained at 2160, while the import profit decreased by 6 to 238, and the starch processing profit remained at -23 [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend with port prices falling and产区 prices rising. Starch prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and supply constraints [4] - Medium - long term: Corn prices may weaken if downstream demand drops seasonally and middlemen release stocks. Starch price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythm [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: Liuzhou decreased by 20 to 5460, and the Thai import profit decreased by 90 to 139 [6] Market Analysis - Short - term: Domestic new sugar supply increased, and the weak spot market drove the futures down. Futures pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price [6] - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus worsens, the futures price will seek the out - of - quota import cost [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The 3128 cotton price remained at 14630, and the cotton yarn import profit increased by 12 to 503 [9] Market Analysis - Long - term: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, cotton demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The Hubei egg price decreased by 0.05 to 3.11, and the basis increased by 50 to 510 [13] Market Analysis - The decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens before Laba due to low prices, it will benefit second - quarter egg prices [13] Group 6: Apples Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The national inventory decreased by 82, and Shandong inventory decreased by 14 [18] Market Analysis - The national apple cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The spot market lacks high - quality goods, and the futures market is expected to show a near - strong, far - weak pattern [18] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - Price changes from December 8 - 12, 2025: The Henan Kaifeng price remained at 11.38, and the basis decreased by 105 to 55 [18] Market Analysis - Short - term: Spot prices are strong over the weekend. Pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound before the Winter Solstice [18] - Medium - long term: There is a supply - demand mismatch, and the far - month outlook depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [18]

农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/08 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/01 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | 4 | 45 | 252 | 2700 | 2850 | 163 | -47 | | 2025/12/02 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2430 | -3 | 35 | 249 | 2700 | 2850 | 159 | -47 | | 2025/12/03 | 2120 | 2250 | 2210 | 2450 | -9 | 50 | 247 | 2700 | 2820 | 143 | -67 | | 2025/12/04 | 2120 | 22 ...

淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，届时会刺激下游补货积极性提升，带动价格走强。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/11/20 | - | 5760 | 5555 | - | - | - | 8165 | | 2025/11/21 | 5675 | 5760 | 5560 | 322 | 410 | 591 | 8154 | | 2025/11/24 | 5615 | 5450 | 5500 | 245 | 340 | 521 | 7876 | | 2025/11/25 | 5615 | 5480 | 55 ...

Report Date - The report was released on November 26, 2025 [1] Corn/Starch Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2070, while prices in Jinzhou increased by 20 to 2220, and prices in Shekou rose by 30 to 2410 from November 19 to 25, 2025. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged at 2700 and 2850 respectively, with the basis dropping by 21 to 149 [2] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Corn prices are expected to remain strong due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory as downstream replenishment is slow [2][3] - **Long - term**: The corn market will remain tight, and prices are supported by planting costs. Starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm, and a significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment [2][3] Sugar Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, the spot price in Nanning increased by 30 to 5480, the basis decreased by 17 to 228, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 13 each. The number of warehouse receipts remained at 7876 [6] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Zhengzhou sugar prices are more affected by import quota management and syrup premix import control than the international market, and domestic sugar production cost is the key support [6] - **Long - term**: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar prices may be impacted. Overall, the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, but short - term downward space is limited [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 45 to 14475, the import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 265 to 3799. The price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 5 to 20935, and the import profit increased by 14 to 515 [9] Market Analysis - New cotton acquisition is almost complete, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial for textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9] Eggs Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan increased, with the largest increase of 0.10 in Henan. The basis increased by 74 to 354 [12] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is relieved by orderly chicken culling and a decrease in new laying hens. Demand increases as cooler weather allows for longer egg storage. The price center in the production area moves up slightly, and future price trends depend on the chicken culling rhythm [12] Apples Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000. The national inventory decreased by 112, Shandong inventory decreased by 145, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 49 [14][15] Market Analysis - National apple storage is almost complete, with an estimated storage volume of about 5.5%, 10% lower than last year. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty, and prices are expected to remain high in the short term [15] Pigs Price Data - From November 19 to 25, 2025, pig prices in all monitored regions decreased, with the largest decrease of 0.20 in Anhui. The basis decreased by 115 to 15 [16] Market Analysis - **Short - term**: Weekend spot prices fluctuated slightly, with moderate slaughter and limited terminal demand improvement. Some local curing in the south has started [17] - **Long - term**: There are expectations of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but supply and inventory pressure is still large. The improvement of far - month expectations depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [17]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Report Name: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2070 | 2150 | 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 | 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2070 | 2160 | 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 | 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 | 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | Change | 0 | -10 | 0 | 0 | -17 | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 37 | 9 | [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices have started an upward trend driven by tightened supply in production areas and downstream enterprises' restocking demand. Farmers' reluctance to sell has delayed the concentrated release of selling pressure. - Medium - long term: The supply - demand pattern of the corn market remains tight this year, and planting costs will strongly support prices. After the selling pressure eases, prices may start a new upward cycle [3] - Short - term: Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. After the new - season corn is on the market, deep - processing procurement and开机率 increase, but slow downstream replenishment and high inventory suppress starch prices. - Medium - long term: The key factor for starch price trends is downstream consumption rhythm. A significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment and drive prices up [4] Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8904 | | 2025/11/14 | - | 5760 | 5635 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/17 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/18 | - | 5760 | 5600 | - | - | - | 8794 | | 2025/11/19 | - | - | 5600 | - | - | - | 8611 | | Change | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | -183 | [5] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup premix import control than the overseas market. Before new quota licenses are issued, domestic sugar production costs are a key support. - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, imported sugar may impact domestic sugar costs. Overall, the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, maintaining a short - selling strategy, but short - term low valuation limits the downward space [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(F E) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 14380 | 73.8 | 75.0 | 1272 | 5058 | 2.52 | 20970 | 438 | -129 | | 2025/11/14 | 14355 | - | 74.7 | 1281 | 5044 | 2.52 | 20970 | 493 | -102 | | 2025/11/17 | 14315 | - | 74.4 | 1286 | 5218 | 2.52 | 20960 | 451 | -70 | | 2025/11/18 | 14280 | - | - | - | 5314 | 2.52 | 20955 | 429 | -39 | | 2025/11/19 | 14320 | - | - | - | 4636 | 2.52 | 20950 | - | -86 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | -678 | 0 | -5 | - | -47 | [7] Market Analysis - New cotton procurement is basically completed, with the total output estimate revised down. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan and tariff cuts are beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. The external environment has improved compared to April, so the valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7] Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 420 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 503 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.06 | | 2025/11/17 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.11 | 380 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.98 | | 2025/11/18 | 2.78 | 2.71 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 3.02 | 301 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.89 | | 2025/11/19 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.96 | 281 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.92 | | Change | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | [13] Market Analysis - Supply side: Ordered chicken culling and a decrease in new - layer chickens have alleviated some supply pressure. - Demand side: Cooler weather allows for longer egg storage, and some traders are building rolling inventories. The interaction of supply and demand has slightly pushed up the price center in production areas. Currently, the culling process has not accelerated significantly, and there are no signs of over - culling in the short term. Future price trends depend on the culling rhythm, and faster culling may drive prices up [13] Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First - and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | 735.77 | 270.88 | 207.60 | -1504.00 | -1442.00 | -408.00 | | 2025/11/14 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1570.00 | -1495.00 | -450.00 | | 2025/11/17 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1438.00 | -1318.00 | -355.00 | | 2025/11/18 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1433.00 | -1356.00 | -382.00 | | 2025/11/19 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1375.00 | -1296.00 | -347.00 | | Change | 0.00 | - | 58.00 | 60.00 | 35.00 | | | | [16][17] Market Analysis - National apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year, with an estimated volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Shaanxi's storage is 5 - 5.5%, 10 - 15% less than last year; Gansu's is 70%, 20 - 30% less; Shandong's is 50%, 10% less. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, good - quality apples are scarce, and the price difference between good and bad apples is widening. The futures price has risen significantly recently and is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [17] Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 11.88 | 11.50 | 12.02 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 20 | | 2025/11/14 | 11.93 | 11.55 | 11.97 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 155 | | 2025/11/17 | 11.63 | 11.35 | 11.77 | 11.85 | 11.85 | -65 | | 2025/11/18 | 11.68 | 11.45 | 11.72 | 11.90 | 11.85 | 145 | | 2025/11/19 | 11.78 | 11.50 | 11.77 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 220 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 75.00 | [17] Market Analysis - Over the weekend, the northern pig spot market was weak while the southern market was stable. Northern farmers were more willing to sell, and there was limited second - fattening support and downstream follow - up. Some southern farmers were holding out for higher prices, but price increases faced limited demand. The market is in a weak, volatile game in the short term. Mid - term supply pressure remains due to unchanged production capacity, and there is still pressure from fourth - quarter base supply and weight reduction. Near - term inventory accumulation shifts pressure to later periods. Attention should be paid to selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment in the high - position futures market [17]