Market Performance - The main BU contract closed at 2916, down 2.47% from the opening price of 2983, with a total decline of 2.2% over the past week [2][31] - Trading volume reached 222,500 contracts, with a turnover of 6.641 billion, indicating a significant drop [2][31] - The next month contract (2602) fell by 2.54%, maintaining a contango structure [2][31] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 2960 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative decline of 2.3% over the past week [2][31] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3190 CNY/ton, with a basis of +274 CNY/ton, up 43 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -365 CNY/ton, with a cumulative decline of 60 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] - The main BU contract fell by 0.1%, while Brent increased by 2.5% [2][31] Fundamental Changes - The asphalt market is currently in the winter off-season, with a production increase of 12% to 492,000 tons as of November 28 [3][32] - The diluted asphalt discount remains high at -11.3 USD/barrel, indicating a loose supply situation [3][32] - Road construction rates have dropped to 29%, the lowest in six weeks, reflecting weak demand [3][32] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak due to reduced demand and inventory pressure, with a focus on winter storage trends [4][32] - OPEC+ production increases may further impact oil prices, likely leading to a downward adjustment in asphalt prices [4][32] - The technical outlook suggests continued low-level fluctuations, with previous reference closing prices of 3010-3100 CNY/ton now breached [4][32] Strategy - The current strategy is to maintain a bearish stance with weak fluctuations anticipated in the asphalt market [6][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Views - The steel market is influenced by macro - expectations, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The consumption stability of finished products needs further observation, and attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - The iron ore market has a growing supply - demand contradiction with rising inventory. Some inventory is locked, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market is running in a volatile manner. The market sentiment is cautious. For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak prices. Downstream consumption is lower than expected, and inventory is relatively high. Long - term supply pattern changes and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be monitored [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally good, mainly for speculation and futures - spot trading, while rigid demand was average. Rebar prices in some regions were supported by mills. The national building materials trading volume was 124,959 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Finished product output increased slightly, inventory decline slowed, and consumption stability needs further observation. Plate inventory still exists, and its industrial - property consumption is expected to be better than that of finished products. With futures contract roll - over and positive macro - policies, market expectations remain. Attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were generally weak and stable with mediocre transactions. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports was 964,000 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with rising total inventory. Some inventory is locked due to non - market factors, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: Driven by improved market sentiment, double - coking futures prices rebounded and showed a volatile trend. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, traders were cautious, and the market was quiet with falling port prices [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, market divergence on future prices has increased, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for both coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening, and the market is pessimistic. Downstream buyers mainly rely on long - term contracts. Some mines have inventory backlogs and fewer trucks for coal transportation. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, downstream demand is cold, and inventory is rising. Import coal tender prices are falling, and traders are cautious [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. In the long term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7].

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年12月沥青月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月01日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 沥青/原油 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 数据来源：Wind 冠通研究 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升3.0个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了4.7个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水平。据隆众资 讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下 游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至29%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇生 产，船发良好，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.74%至26.21万吨，处于中性水 ...

11月11日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1230.0元。截止发稿，焦煤主力合约 报1234.5元，跌幅2.10%。 焦煤期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 兴业期货 焦煤等待逢低做多 冠通期货 焦煤偏弱运行 焦煤现货价格偏强运行，供应端受山西煤矿减产、环保限产等因素影响，产量持续收缩，下游采购需求 稳定，叠加煤矿库存处于低位，供需关系良好。上周焦炭第四轮提涨开启，但暂未落地，由于钢厂利润 收缩、铁水产量回落，需求端支撑有限，焦化企业仍处于亏损状态，生产积极性一般。整体来看，双焦 受供应端收缩主导，下游钢材端疲软制约价格上行空间，短线小幅调整，中线预计震荡偏强。 铜冠金源期货 焦煤短线小幅调整，中线预计震荡偏强 兴业期货：焦煤等待逢低做多 乌海地区环保制约依然严格，煤矿提产节奏偏缓，供给约束持续存在，但山西焦煤（000983）矿山超产 治理尚处预期阶段，实际生产管控措施并未显著增强，关注本月中下旬冬储行情，策略上等待逢低做 多。 冠通期货：焦煤偏弱运行 供应端，原煤及炼焦煤产量均有不同程度的减少，据Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率 ...