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首席论势|连平:未来十年,民间投资年均增速将达5%~7%
Guang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-08-01 08:53
"《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》的实施,将对民营经济的持续高质量发展产生不可估量的动 力。"广开首席产业研究院院长连平表示,未来,民营经济将为我国经济高质量发展作出新的贡献,成 为推动中国经济行稳致远的关键力量之一。 连平关注到,近年来,在人工智能、机器人、低空经济、生物医药等前沿领域,民营企业的身影随处可 见,已经涌现出一批耀眼的明星企业。目前,部分民营企业已经具备高技术含量和高附加值的特征,国 家高新技术企业中民营企业占比扩大至92%以上。此外,在政策的大力扶持下,民营企业牵头承担国家 重大技术攻关任务的数量呈现出显著增加的趋势,所涉及的范围也在不断扩展。 "未来更多民营企业有望乘着新一轮科技革命浪潮,在关键核心技术领域开展攻关,在科技创新中发挥 更大作用。"连平预计,到2035年民营企业研发投入占全社会比重将突破60%,技术创新成果贡献率达 80%以上,为全球科技创新贡献"中国方案"。 连平提到,民间投资将成为拉动投资增长的重要新生力量。一系列政策"组合拳"的实施带动民间投资信 心稳步修复。今年上半年,扣除房地产开发投资后,民间投资增长达6.6%;分行业看,制造业民间投 资增长11.5%,增速比全部制 ...
国家发展改革委:加大力度稳投资促消费 拓展投资增量
● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 中国证券报记者获悉,7月31日,国家发展改革委召开2025年上半年发展改革形势通报会提出,扎扎实 实做好下半年发展改革工作,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。加大力度稳投资促消费,拓展投 资增量,强化政府投资项目全周期管理,着力激发民间投资活力。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,破 除"内卷式"竞争,深入推进招标投标制度改革,规范地方招商引资行为,推动要素顺畅流通,促进民营 经济健康发展、高质量发展。 此次会议深入学习领会习近平总书记重要讲话和重要指示批示精神,落实党中央、国务院关于"十五 五"时期经济社会发展形势的重大判断和做好经济社会发展工作的总体要求,对当前经济形势的研判和 做好下半年经济工作的决策部署,高质量完成全年发展改革任务。 会议指出,今年以来,我国经济运行稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成效,主要经济指标表现良好,新质 生产力积极发展,改革开放不断深化,重点领域风险有力有效防范化解,民生兜底保障进一步加强,我 国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 会议提出,发展改革系统要不折不扣贯彻落实党中央、国务院各项决策部署,扎扎实实做好下半年发展 改革工作,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,进一步 ...
“十五五”启幕,蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-07-31 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July Central Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic conditions. The meeting sets the stage for the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for high-quality economic development and structural reforms [2][3][4]. Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing the annual target. This performance was achieved despite external challenges, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][4]. - The meeting removed the phrase "external shocks are increasing" from its risk assessment but emphasized the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking regarding potential challenges ahead [2][3][4]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained and timely macro policy efforts, particularly focusing on major economic provinces to drive national growth. It stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and enhance their effectiveness [4][17]. - Fiscal policy will continue to prioritize the rapid issuance and utilization of government bonds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13, which is lower than the same period in previous years, indicating potential for further policy support [4][17]. - The monetary policy discussion did not mention interest rate cuts but introduced measures to lower overall financing costs, indicating a shift towards improving the transmission of monetary policy [4][17]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and the cultivation of industrial competitiveness, linking consumption policies with social welfare initiatives to enhance consumer demand [5][18]. - It reiterated the need to combat "involution" in the economy, focusing on orderly competition among enterprises and the governance of capacity in key industries, while promoting the development of internationally competitive emerging industries [5][18][19]. Investment Quality and Risk Management - There is a heightened focus on "high-quality" investments and a strict prohibition on the creation of new hidden debts, reflecting a commitment to risk prevention in key sectors [7][19]. - The meeting underscored the importance of high-quality urban renewal and the effective promotion of major construction projects while managing the risks associated with local financing platforms [7][19].
破除“内卷式”竞争!国家发改委最新发声
证券时报· 2025-07-31 15:00
Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic stability and high-quality development in the face of external pressures and risks, highlighting the resilience and potential of China's economy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Analysis and Strategy - The NDRC reports that China's economy has shown steady progress in 2023, with major economic indicators performing well and new productive forces developing positively [1]. - The meeting underscores the need for a comprehensive analysis of significant changes, key indicators, and major issues, focusing on stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [2]. - The NDRC aims to enhance investment and consumption, stimulate private investment, and implement high-quality policies to boost market vitality [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Planning - The NDRC is committed to executing the decisions of the Central Government, ensuring the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and preparing for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - There is a focus on fostering new productive forces, promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and advancing the digital economy [2]. - The NDRC plans to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote healthy development of the private economy [2]. Group 3: Sustainable Development and Safety - The NDRC emphasizes the transition to a green and low-carbon economy, establishing a new mechanism for energy consumption and carbon emission control [2]. - The meeting highlights the importance of regional and urban-rural coordinated development, ensuring food, energy, and supply chain security [2]. - There is a commitment to enhancing safety measures and disaster prevention, prioritizing the safety of people's lives [2].
国家发展改革委:以稳就业扩内需为重点做好政策预研储备
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 12:45
Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a meeting to discuss the economic situation and strategies for the second half of 2025, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and the resilience of the Chinese economy [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's economy has shown steady progress in 2025, with major economic indicators performing well and new productive forces developing positively [1] - The economy has managed to withstand external pressures and accumulated risks, ranking among the top in growth among major economies [1] Group 2: Policy Focus - The NDRC aims to focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while enhancing both internal and external economic cycles [2] - There is a commitment to solidly implement the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council, ensuring the completion of annual targets and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - Efforts will be made to stabilize investment and promote consumption, with a focus on expanding investment increments and invigorating private investment [2] - The government will manage investment projects throughout their lifecycle to enhance market vitality and boost consumption [2] Group 4: Innovation and Development - The NDRC plans to cultivate new productive forces and promote the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, as well as advance the development of the low-altitude economy and digital economy [2][4] - There will be a push for high-quality development in various sectors, including green and low-carbon initiatives [3][4] Group 5: Regional Development and Coordination - The strategy includes promoting coordinated regional development and urban renewal, as well as facilitating the urbanization of agricultural migrants [4] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of maintaining the safety of key sectors such as food, energy, and supply chains [4]
“十五五”启幕,蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源研究· 2025-07-31 07:49
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July Central Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic conditions. The meeting sets the stage for the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for high-quality economic development and structural reforms [2][3][4]. Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target. This performance is noted despite external pressures, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][4]. - The meeting removed the phrase "external shocks are increasing" from its risk assessment, indicating a more optimistic outlook while still stressing the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking [2][3][4]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for macroeconomic policies to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, particularly focusing on supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4][17]. - It emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and improve the effectiveness of fiscal measures, including the issuance of government bonds, which had a progress rate of 50.6% as of July 13, lower than the same period in previous years [4][17]. - The monetary policy discussion did not mention interest rate cuts but introduced measures to lower the overall financing costs for society, indicating a shift towards enhancing the transmission of monetary policy [4][17]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting placed greater emphasis on cultivating service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, linking consumption policies with social welfare initiatives to stabilize consumer demand [5][18]. - It reiterated the importance of "high-quality" investments and the prohibition of new hidden debts, aiming to mitigate risks in key sectors while promoting urban renewal and infrastructure development [7][19]. - The concept of "anti-involution" was highlighted, focusing on regulating competition among enterprises and fostering industries with international competitiveness [5][18][19].
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250731
| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | (点) | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3616 | 0.17 | 5.59 | 0.93 | | 深证综指 | 2206 | -0.74 | 7.47 | 1.31 | | 风格指数 (%) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.04 | 5.75 | 8.87 | | 中盘指数 | -0.56 | 7.47 | 9.47 | | 小盘指数 | -0.76 | 7.79 | 15.43 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 渔业 | 4.06 | 12.31 | 20.08 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 3.3 | 29.05 | 31.01 | | 影视院线 | 2.76 | 9.54 | 23.1 | | 旅游及景区 | 2.31 | 8.27 | 14.8 | | 饲料Ⅱ | 2 ...
西咸新区打造全省首个跨境电商综合服务平台
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 00:25
Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic development of the Xi'an Xian New Area in leveraging cross-border e-commerce as a key driver for stabilizing foreign trade and promoting openness, supported by the Qin Chuang Yuan talent market to create a comprehensive service platform for product selection, talent cultivation, and international expansion [1] Group 1: Cross-Border E-Commerce Development - The Xi'an Xian New Area has established Shaanxi's first "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt" product selection center, addressing the "selection difficulty" faced by companies entering international markets [2] - The product selection center operates in an 800 square meter space with a "7+2" functional zoning, creating an integrated ecosystem for production, supply, sales, and services, facilitating global resource circulation [2] - The center has facilitated 25 cross-border collaborations in its first six months of operation, with plans to add a "Belt and Road" country demand database for precise product selection [2] Group 2: Talent Development - The Qin Chuang Yuan talent market has established a Silk Road e-commerce talent training base in collaboration with 11 universities, creating a tripartite model involving universities, enterprises, and government [3] - The training base features a live streaming training center where students engage in real projects, resulting in significant increases in store optimization and overseas sales [5] - Over 30 international live streamers have been trained, providing essential talent for companies looking to expand internationally [5] Group 3: Ecosystem Enhancement - The cross-border e-commerce ecosystem in the Xi'an Xian New Area is evolving from isolated initiatives to a systematic reconstruction, supported by a dynamic feedback mechanism for talent cultivation [6] - The selection center and talent base are designed to adapt to industry needs, with plans to expand the selection center's influence and enhance talent base construction to attract global talent [6]
“十五五”启幕,蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-30 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July 30 meeting of the Central Political Bureau, emphasizing the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic challenges [2][3]. Economic Performance - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining awareness of potential risks and challenges, despite the positive economic indicators [2]. Policy Direction - The meeting stressed the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that new policies may be quickly implemented in response to economic fluctuations [3][4]. - There is a focus on promoting domestic demand and the dual circulation strategy, with an emphasis on stabilizing internal demand after a period of "grabbing exports" [3]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments, particularly supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4]. - Fiscal policies will continue to prioritize the acceleration of government bond issuance and the effective use of funds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13 [4]. - The monetary policy will focus on reducing the overall financing costs for society, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy tools [4][6]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, with a strong emphasis on "high-quality" investments [5][7]. - There is a commitment to improving consumer demand through policies that enhance living standards and expand consumption, particularly in the service sector [6]. - The meeting reiterated the need to prevent the emergence of hidden debts while promoting high-quality urban renewal and infrastructure projects [7]. Conclusion - The overall message from the meeting indicates a proactive approach to economic management, with a focus on sustaining growth through strategic policy implementation and addressing potential risks in the economic landscape [2][4][5].
7月中央政治局会议学习理解:“十五五”启幕,蓝图绘新篇
Economic Performance - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, demonstrating strong economic resilience despite external challenges[2] - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a bottom-line thinking approach and enhance awareness of potential risks, while removing references to increased external shocks[2] Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability, while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic policies[3] - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, with a focus on supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth[4] Investment and Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of high-quality investment and the prohibition of new hidden debts, while promoting high-quality urban renewal and infrastructure projects[6] - There is a renewed focus on expanding service consumption and improving living standards, linking consumption policies with social welfare initiatives[5] Structural Adjustments - The meeting reiterated the significance of promoting domestic and international dual circulation, with an emphasis on stabilizing domestic demand following export boosts[3] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to lower overall financing costs and support sectors like technology innovation and consumer services[4] Risk Management - The report warns of potential risks from unexpected economic changes and policy shifts that could impact domestic demand recovery[15]