投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 B E W S B B B A 热 线 官 方 网 站 81 用版 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn ITCE 离期货 | | 国贸期货研究院 期货执业证号:F3074875; 2025/7/11 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | 4-6 | DR001 | 1.32 | 0.58 | DR007 | 1.49 | 1.78 | | E | GC001 | 1.16 | -27.50 | GC007 | 1.49 | -2.00 | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.56 | -0.30 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | D | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 1.25 | 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory reduction and the impact of a fertility subsidy program [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is estimated to be between 1.0-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36%-47% [1]. - The company plans to allocate no less than 1.0 billion for share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of at least 2.0 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts low single-digit growth for full-year revenue, with H2 2025 revenue expected to increase by 10%-15% [2]. - The anticipated completion of inventory adjustments in Q3 2025 is expected to positively impact revenue [2]. - The company plans to launch higher-end products in H2 2025, which may drive revenue improvement [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company has announced a share buyback plan and a commitment to dividend distribution, enhancing shareholder returns [2][3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, suggesting a potential industry improvement cycle of 2-3 years [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price set at 5.1 HKD and a recommendation downgrade to "recommended" [3].

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹/方云朋 预告1H25 盈利同比下降36-47% 启动不少于10 亿元股份回购，全年派息额不低于20 亿元。公司拟启动不低于10 亿元的股份回购用于潜 在员工激励计划，公告25 年派息不低于20亿人民币，相当于25 年我们利润预期的60%以上，彰显公司 对于提升股东回报的决心。考虑公司覆盖全生命周期营养产品的长期布局，未来公司有望在功能营养事 业及儿青事业获取更多增量。同时我们认为去库存利好公司渠道稳健稳定发展，短期虽有影响，但长期 利好公司竞争力进一步夯实。 盈利预测与估值 由于公司去库存调整及大包粉减值，我们下调25/26 年盈利预测26%/16%至28.7/36.6 亿元，当前交易在 13/10 倍25/26 年P/E；下调目标价27%至6 港币，对应18/14 倍25/26 年P/E和31%上行空间，维持跑赢行 业评级。 飞鹤发布盈利预警公告：预计1H25 收入91-93 亿元，同比下降7.9-9.9%，预计1H25 净利润10-12 亿元， 同比下滑36-47%，低于市场预期，主因去库存调整及大包粉减值。 关注要点 去库存及奶粉补贴多重影响致收入低于市场预期，利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net cash injection of 50.7 billion yuan on the day of the market operation, while achieving a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan for the week [1]. Group 1: Market Operations - On July 11, the PBOC carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 84.7 billion yuan, with 34 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 50.7 billion yuan [1]. - For the week, the PBOC executed a total of 425.7 billion yuan in reverse repos, while 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, leading to a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Reverse Repo Details - The reverse repos maturing on July 11 amounted to 34 billion yuan, while the reverse repos conducted on the same day totaled 84.7 billion yuan [4]. - The reverse repos maturing on July 10 were 57.2 billion yuan, with 90 billion yuan conducted on that day [4]. - The reverse repos maturing on July 9 were 98.5 billion yuan, with 75.5 billion yuan conducted [4].

央行公告，2025年7月11日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了847亿元逆回购操作，期限 为7天，操作利率为1.40%，投标量和中标量均为847亿元。(央行) ...

Group 1 - The first Western Low Altitude Economy Expo will be held in Chongqing from July 11 to 13, focusing on low-altitude industry trends and establishing a comprehensive communication platform for the entire industry chain with over 200 participating entities including government units, leading companies, industry associations, and universities [1] Group 2 - On July 11, a total of 13 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total of 405 million shares and a market value of 7.674 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] - Among the companies, seven will have over 10 million shares unlocked, with Andar Technology, Hanbang High-tech, and Zhuoran Co. leading in unlock volume at 140 million shares, 89.2214 million shares, and 61.088 million shares respectively [2] - In terms of market value, seven companies will have over 100 million yuan unlocked, with Weike Technology, Zhili Fang, and Andar Technology leading at 3.652 billion yuan, 996 million yuan, and 866 million yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - On July 11, 20 companies announced 22 stock repurchase progress updates, with three companies disclosing repurchase plans for the first time and two plans approved by shareholders [3] - The highest repurchase plan amounts from newly disclosed plans are from Shantui Co., China National Materials, and Demingli, with proposed repurchase amounts of up to 300 million yuan, 83.2557 million yuan, and 67,100 yuan respectively [3] - Among the approved repurchase plans, Shengjian Technology and Shennong Group have the highest proposed repurchase amounts at 11.8195 million yuan, 2.379 million yuan, and 1.3885 million yuan respectively [3] Group 4 - A total of 34 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation on July 4 with an operation rate of 1.4% [4]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ■ 亚宝药业集团股份有限公司董事会 2025年7月11日 一、回购股份的基本情况 亚宝药业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年5月16日召开了2024年年度股东大会，审议通 过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的议案》，同意公司以集中竞价方式回购公司股份，回购 股份的资金总额不低于人民币0.5亿元（含）且不超过人民币1亿元（含），回购股份价格不超过人民币 6.95元/股，回购用途为全部予以注销并减少公司注册资本，回购期限为自股东大会审议通过回购方案 之日起不超过6个月，本次回购资金来源为公司自有资金及自筹资金。具体内容详见公司于2025年5月17 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及《中国证券报》《上海证券报》上发布的《亚宝药业集 团股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的回购报告书》（公告编号：2025-020）。 二、回购股份的进展情况 2025年7月10日，公司以集中竞 ...

接受邀请提呈出售其现有可换股债券的现有可换股债券的合资格债券持有人将合资格收取购回价，合共 相当于根据同步购回提呈以供购回的现有可换股债券本金总额的100%及现有可换股债券的应计但未付 利息。 于本公告日期，公司已透过独家交易经办人收到合资格债券持有人向公司出售本金总额约为5.66亿港元 的现有可换股债券的承诺，且现有可换股债券的余下未偿还本金总额约为7400万港元。 建议发行于2027年到期的8.50亿港元2.80%可换股债券。于2025年7月10日，公司与联席账簿管理人已订 立认购协议，据此，根据认购协议的条款及条件，联席账簿管理人已有条件及个别(而非共同或共同及 个别)同意认购或促使认购及支付公司将予发行本金总额8.50亿港元的债券。债券的发行价将为债券本 金总额的100%，而各债券的面值将为2,000,000港元及其完整倍数。 智通财经APP讯，周大福创建(00659)发布公告，建议同步购回于2025年到期的7.80亿港元4.00%可换股 债券。于2025年7月10日，独家交易经办人与公司订立交易经办人协议，据此，独家交易经办人已就建 议同步购回获委任以(其中包括)协助公司向现有可换股债券的持有人收集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in share buybacks and stock purchases by major shareholders, with a total of 1069 companies implementing buybacks amounting to 750 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong trend in corporate governance and investor confidence [2][3][9] Group 1: Share Buyback Trends - In the first half of 2025, over 1069 A-share companies executed share buybacks totaling 750 billion yuan, with more than 500 companies disclosing buyback plans for a total of over 1400 billion yuan [2][3] - Notable companies such as Kweichow Moutai, XCMG, Muyuan Foods, and CATL have implemented buybacks exceeding 10 billion yuan, showcasing the trend among industry leaders [3] - The buyback plans are being executed efficiently, with over 100 completed buyback plans in the first half of the year [3] Group 2: Specific Buyback Examples - Zijin Mining announced a buyback plan of 6 to 10 billion yuan and completed it within two days, spending nearly 10 billion yuan to repurchase 64.31 million shares [4] - Other companies like Xinyuan Material and Wens Foodstuff have also shown rapid execution of their buyback plans, enhancing investor confidence [5] Group 3: Major Shareholder Purchases - Major shareholders, including state-owned enterprises, are actively increasing their stakes, with the "Three Oil Companies" planning a combined purchase of up to 12.6 billion yuan [6] - Private companies are also participating, with shareholders like Dongfang Shenghong planning to invest between 500 million to 1 billion yuan in their shares [6] Group 4: Loan Support for Buybacks - The People's Bank of China has introduced a stock buyback and increase loan program, reducing the self-funding requirement from 30% to 10% and extending the loan term from 1 year to 3 years [8] - In the first half of 2025, 412 companies received support through this loan program, with a total loan amount of approximately 849.78 billion yuan [9] - Companies like Muyuan Foods and Haier Smart Home have secured significant loan amounts to facilitate their buyback plans, indicating strong institutional support for these initiatives [9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company has announced an adjustment to the maximum repurchase price of its shares following the implementation of the 2024 annual equity distribution, reducing the limit from 60 CNY to 59.1842 CNY per share [1][2][3]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Details - The company plans to repurchase its shares using its own and self-raised funds through the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total repurchase amount between 150 million CNY and 300 million CNY [1]. - The repurchase period will not exceed 12 months from the date of the board's approval of the repurchase plan [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Price Adjustment - The adjustment in the repurchase price limit is due to the cash dividend distribution of 0.82 CNY per share, which will not affect the total number of circulating shares [2][3]. - The formula used for the adjustment is based on the cash dividend and the change in circulating shares, which in this case remains zero due to the nature of the distribution [2]. Group 3: Calculation of Adjusted Price - The adjusted maximum repurchase price is calculated as follows: (60 CNY - 0.8158 CNY) / (1 + 0) = 59.1842 CNY per share [3]. - The estimated number of shares to be repurchased will depend on the actual repurchase situation, based on the lower limit of 150 million CNY [3]. Group 4: Other Matters - Other aspects of the share repurchase plan remain unchanged, and the company will continue to implement the plan based on market conditions while fulfilling disclosure obligations [3].