Core Viewpoint - The total inventory value of 50 typical listed companies reached 7.98 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 15% compared to the end of last year [1]. Group 1: Inventory and Land Reserve Data - As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve value of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 25.23 trillion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [15]. - The total land reserve area of the top 100 companies was 1.582 billion square meters, a decrease of 12% compared to the previous year [15]. - The threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of total land reserve value was 20.58 billion yuan, a decline of 16% [16]. Group 2: Company Performance and Trends - 96% of the top 100 real estate companies experienced a decline in land reserve value, with 15% of companies seeing a drop of over 20% [19]. - Vanke's total land reserve value decreased by over 340 billion yuan, a drop of approximately 25% [20]. - The inventory turnover cycle for the top 100 companies reached a historical high of 6.93 years, indicating increased pressure on inventory liquidation [25]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - The sales of new commercial housing in 2024 totaled 96,750 billion yuan, a decline of 17.1%, reflecting weak market demand [25]. - 94% of the 50 typical listed companies recognized inventory impairment losses totaling 167.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 26% increase from previous years [32]. - The proportion of completed inventory reached a record high, accounting for 27% of the total inventory value, indicating a shift towards liquidating completed projects [30]. Group 4: Strategic Focus and Policy Directions - The industry is transitioning from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "product-oriented" strategy, with companies focusing on core first and second-tier cities for new investments [35]. - Companies like Poly Development and China Resources Land are emphasizing inventory liquidation and optimizing land use to reduce capital occupation [36]. - The 2025 policy focus is expected to revolve around ensuring housing delivery, land reserve optimization, and urban renewal initiatives [37].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the first 111 days of 2025, the planned utilization of special bonds for land reserve has reached 209 billion yuan, showing a rapid month-on-month increase from January to April [1] - The land reserve initiative is no longer limited to specific regions but is being broadly implemented across the country [1] - The average reserve price for land that was sold after 2018 shows a discount of 12% compared to the transaction price, which strengthens the net assets of real estate companies [1] - The reserve policy is considered a core component of supply contraction policies, which, along with financial and demand support policies, forms the critical policy combination for stabilizing the Chinese real estate market [1]

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry, specifically the land market in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting trends in land supply, transaction volumes, and pricing dynamics across different city tiers [1][2][3]. Key Points Land Supply and Demand - In Q1 2025, land supply in first-tier cities increased by nearly 14% year-on-year, while national land supply decreased by 19%, indicating a faster supply pace in first-tier cities despite overall insufficiency [1][2]. - The total land transaction area nationwide fell by 11% year-on-year, but transaction value rose significantly by 19%, suggesting a shift in transaction structure with a notable increase in floor prices, particularly in first-tier cities where prices rose by 41% [1][2]. Pricing Trends - The average premium rate for land transactions in sample cities rose by 3.1 percentage points to 7.2% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities exceeding 15%, reflecting optimism among developers regarding the new housing market in core cities [1][4]. - The floor price of land transactions nationwide increased by 34% year-on-year, reaching 3,731 RMB/sqm, with first-tier cities seeing a 41% increase to 36,000 RMB/sqm [2]. Developer Activity - Leading real estate companies showed a significant increase in land acquisition activity, particularly state-owned enterprises, with some companies exceeding 100% in land acquisition intensity compared to sales [1][6]. - Approximately 75% of new land value in Q1 2025 was attributed to the top ten companies, indicating a clear divide between leading and trailing firms in the market [6][7]. Future Market Outlook - The demand-supply structure is expected to favor demand over supply in first-tier cities by 2025, supporting price increases, while lower-tier cities will need time to balance supply and demand [1][5]. - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to extend from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities, with varying recovery speeds and cycles [5][11]. Government Policies and Market Support - The government is expected to enhance market conditions through policies such as increasing local government special bonds for land acquisition, which has already seen a proposed area of over 4.3 million sqm and a funding amount exceeding 1.3 billion RMB [3][8]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, with government interventions expected to further stabilize and boost market confidence [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on property companies with stable liquidity and high dividend yields, such as China Resources, Vanke, and Poly, while also considering trend-driven investments in companies like Beike, which are closely tied to the second-hand housing market [14]. - Companies that are reversing trends, such as JinDi and Longfor, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities as their credit issues are being resolved [14]. Additional Insights - The land transaction structure is crucial for influencing housing supply and pricing trends, with a strong land market in first and second-tier cities indicating a more robust new housing supply and greater market confidence [9][10]. - The real estate sector's future direction is expected to focus on virtual assets alongside physical assets, with a shift in housing demand towards residential needs rather than speculative investments [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate industry, with a year-on-year increase in land acquisition by major companies [10][11]. Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 199.86 billion yuan in January-February 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.7% [11]. - The Yangtze River Delta has emerged as the leading city cluster for land acquisition, with the top 10 companies in this region acquiring 51.98 billion yuan worth of land [24]. - Major companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Jinmao topped the list in terms of new value added from land acquisitions, with 46.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.3 billion yuan respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition Rankings - China Resources Land ranked first in land acquisition amount with 23.2 billion yuan, followed by China Jinmao with 12.9 billion yuan and Greentown China with 12.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - The top companies in terms of land area acquired include Hengnan Development Group and Haixing County Xinggang Construction Development, with 1.22 million square meters and 860,000 square meters respectively [3]. Year-on-Year Growth - The report highlights that the total land acquisition amount for key real estate companies has shown a positive year-on-year trend, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [10][11]. - The increase in land acquisition is attributed to local governments actively releasing quality land in core areas, which has boosted companies' willingness to acquire land [11][12]. Special Debt and Land Recovery - The issuance of special bonds for land recovery has accelerated, with Guangdong Province being the first to issue such bonds, amounting to approximately 30.7 billion yuan, primarily aimed at acquiring idle land [14]. - The report emphasizes the expectation that various types of real estate companies will benefit from these initiatives, which are crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [14][20]. Regional Insights - In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China Resources Land and other major companies have been active in land acquisition, with significant amounts reported [22]. - The report notes that state-owned enterprises and local government-backed companies remain dominant in land acquisition, while private enterprises are selectively increasing their land reserves in key areas [28].

证券研究报告 房地产 土地收储指引更加明晰，落地进程有 望提速 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 3 月 11 日，自然资源部、财政部发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支 持土地储备有关工作的通知》。相较于 24 年 11 月的自然资源部文件（明确 了收地范围、价格和用途，具体可参考我们的报告《收地指引出炉，关注三 大要点》（24.11.11）），本次文件增量信息在于：1、进一步规范收地范围； 2、明确申报审核流程；3、强调资金和收益的综合平衡。根据中指院的数据， 截至 3 月 10 日，广东、四川、吉林、江西等已公示拟使用专项债券收地的 金额约 500 亿元；同时，北京、广东已率先发行用于土地储备的专项债券共 424 亿元，其中广东的 307 亿元全部用于回收闲置土地。我们预计规范文件 的持续出台有望给予地方政府更加明晰的操作指引，加速专项债券收地的落 地，从而平衡土地供需、改善房企流动性，进一步筑牢"止跌回稳"的趋势。 增量信息 1：进一步规范收地范围 本次文件指出，各地要优先将处置存量闲置土地清单中的地块纳入土地储备 计划，24 年 11 月 7 日之后供应的土地不列入存量闲 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing scale of unsold residential properties and idle land, prompting the central government to promote the acquisition of these assets to adjust market supply and demand [7][10] - The report indicates that various local governments are responding to land acquisition policies, but comprehensive implementation will take time [16][19] - Several real estate companies have successfully acquired land, with considerations on whether to use price increases for repurchase or cash compensation [21][25] - The report concludes that while the intention behind land acquisition is positive, it faces multiple challenges that need to be validated by the market [26][28] Summary by Sections Section 1: Government Initiatives for Land Acquisition - The report states that the scale of unsold residential properties reached approximately 67.3 million square meters by the end of 2023, with a projected increase to 75.3 million square meters by the end of 2024, marking an 11.9% year-on-year growth [7][10] - Following a liquidity crisis in 2021, land acquisition by real estate companies plummeted, with a 15.4% decrease in 2021 and a further drop to 10.0 million square meters in 2022 [8][10] - The central government has introduced policies to support local governments in acquiring unsold properties and idle land, including a 300 billion yuan special loan for affordable housing [10][11] Section 2: Local Government Responses - Local governments have begun to issue guidelines for land acquisition, primarily at the city or district level, with major cities having fewer announcements due to existing land recovery processes [16][17] - The report notes that land acquisition by real estate companies in 2024 is expected to be limited, with Guangdong province leading the way in 2025 [19] Section 3: Successful Land Acquisitions by Companies - Vanke successfully acquired three residential plots in Guangzhou, adjusting the land use from commercial to residential without additional cash outlay, thereby enhancing the potential value of the land [21][24] - The report discusses the strategic decisions made by companies regarding land acquisition, including price adjustments and the use of special bonds for funding [25] Section 4: Challenges in Land Acquisition - The report identifies several challenges in the land acquisition process, including financial constraints on local governments, the complexity of coordinating multiple departments, and the difficulty in determining acquisition prices [26][28] - It emphasizes the need for companies to release land from mortgage obligations to facilitate the acquisition process, which can be financially burdensome [28][29]