来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张欣然）12月12日，由上海证券报与交通银行上海市分行联合主办、基煜基金全程协办的"上证·大虹桥金融高质量发展大会"在 上海长宁举办。 农银理财副总裁刘湘成在会上表示，当下全球经济周期、地缘政治环境及宏观变量的不确定性显著上升，使得单一资产在风险抵御与收益表现方面愈发不 足。面对不确定性和低利率的环境，仅依赖单一资产难以为投资者带来稳定且可持续的回报，多资产配置已成为资管机构的必要选择。 农银理财副总裁刘湘成在会上表示，当下全球经济周期、地缘政治环境及宏观变量的不确定性显著上升，使得单一资产在风险抵御与收益表现方面愈发不 足。面对不确定性和低利率的环境，仅依赖单一资产难以为投资者带来稳定且可持续的回报，多资产配置已成为资管机构的必要选择。 农银理财副总裁刘湘成 刘湘成表示，从金融模型与风险管理的基本原理来看，只有借助多类资产之间的低相关性，才能有效降低组合波动，使投资体验更为平稳。当前的市场环境 也进一步强化了这一需求。过去数年，我国利率明显下行，当前整体维持在偏低水平，与五年前相比，基于固定收益资产所能获得的"安全垫"显著降低，这 使传统固收策略获取稳 ...

从全年表现看，FOF发行规模与数量实现双攀升。Wind数据显示，截至12月11日，年内成立的FOF数量已超75只，发行总 规模突破780亿元，创下近4年新高。其中，23只FOF发行规模超10亿元，最大单只规模超65亿元，另有3只募集规模超50亿 元，头部产品虹吸效应显著。 维度一，居民理财需求结构性转变，稳健配置需求激增 在存款利率持续下行、银行理财全面净值化背景下，投资者对"低波动、稳收益"资产的配置需求显著提升。FOF作为专业 资产配置工具，通过分散投资于多只公募基金，有效平滑单一资产波动，成为居民财富向权益市场迁移的重要承接载体。 据WIND数据，今年以来全市场FOF产品总规模已超2021年末水平，接近2022年初历史高位，反映出市场对FOF的接受度持 续提升。 维度二，产品结构优化，"少而精"趋势强化，爆款频出 公募FOF发行热潮持续升温，单周发行数据再创新高。本周（12月8日~12月14日）共有8只公募FOF启动募集，发行数量环 比飙升300%，创下2023年5月以来的单周新高，且这已是FOF连续第十周保持"周周有新品"的强劲节奏。 | | | 本周新发行的8只FOF基金信息一览 | | | | - ...

国泰基金曾辉，真称得上是一位"全能选手"。 他管理的这只权益类FOF，最近一年业绩能排到第一。 国泰优选领航一年持有FOF最近1年收益率为52.59%，大幅跑赢业绩基准和偏股混合型FOF指数，位居 同类第1/79。 数据来源：Wind，数据截至2025年9月30日，同类指银河证券混合型FOF（权益资产60%-95%）（A 类）。基金历史涨跌幅仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现，不构成对本基金业绩承诺。国泰优选领航业绩 比较基准为：沪深300指数收益率*60%+中证综合债指数收益率*30%+恒生中国企业指数收益率（估值 汇率调整）*10%。 他管理的这只稳健类FOF，最近一年也名列前茅。 国泰瑞悦3个月持有是一只固收仓位较高的FOF，这只产品最近1年收益率为4.98%，位居同类第2/16。 数据来源： Wind、银河证券，数据截至2025年9月30日，同类指银河证券债券型FOF（A类）。基金历 史涨跌幅仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现，不构成对本基金业绩承诺。国泰瑞悦业绩比较基准为：中债 综合全价（总值）指数收益率*95%+银行人民币一年期定期存款利率（税后）*5%。 不仅业绩好，风控也做得好。在管全部产品年化夏普比率都 ...

Core Insights - The recent significant decline in credit bond prices has disrupted the market, leading to substantial weekly losses for many pure bond private equity funds, with some experiencing declines of over 9% [1][2] - The fundamental risks associated with these credit bonds were anticipated by institutions and investors, raising questions about why many private equity funds heavily invested in such bonds [1][2] - The current environment has forced bond private equity managers to seek transformation, exploring macro strategies and multi-asset allocations to adapt to the changing market dynamics [1][5] Market Reaction - On November 25, investor concerns peaked as many private equity funds reported significant net value declines, with pure bond products experiencing a drop of over 3% from November 24 to 28 [2] - The adjustment in credit bonds was triggered by a company disclosing a meeting to discuss bond extension, leading to rapid price adjustments in related bonds [2] - Notably, several well-known bond private equity products saw net value declines exceeding 4% during this period, indicating a broader market impact [2] Industry Challenges - The average yield for medium to long-term pure bond funds has dropped to around 1%, with some funds achieving up to 4% by taking on more credit risk, but future yields are expected to be challenging [3] - The interest in traditional pure fixed-income products has decreased as investors shift towards equity and other asset classes, reflecting a clear trend of marginalization for fixed-income strategies [4] Transformation Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, many bond private equity firms are pivoting towards "fixed income plus" or macro strategies to enhance returns [5] - Some firms have begun to diversify their investment strategies by incorporating equity investments and exploring opportunities in convertible bonds and cross-border investments [5] - The trend indicates that equity assets are becoming a focal point for bond private equity firms as they seek to improve product yield characteristics [5] Market Outlook - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, making bond investments increasingly difficult, while the stock market may benefit from ongoing capital inflows and positive policy signals [6]

和国泰基金多资产配置部投资总监曾辉聊了整整一个下午后，我们首先感受到的，是他对多资产这个细分行业过 去和未来的思考与热情。 其次，亲身感受到了他对风险的态度。 访谈这天指数跌破 3900 点，访谈期间他出去了 2 次，去执行刚性风控来控制组合的最大回撤。他对回撤似乎 非常敏感。 我们还感受到了他对寻找多资产配置新出路的坚持。 过去几年，公募 FOF 给投资人的真实的体感并不算太好，看上去什么都配了一点，但市场调整时该跌的都没少 跌，反之该涨时弹性又不足。 多资产配置目前被很多人曲解为"拼盘生意"，但曾辉肯定地说这未来是一个集大成的技术活，尤其是一个团队协 作下的顶尖技术活。 据 Choice 数据统计，曾辉在管产品共 6 只。截至三季度末，其权益代表产品国泰优选领航一年，近一年收益 52.59% ， 业绩同类第 1 ；曾辉管理的国泰瑞悦 3 个月持有债券 FOF 近一年收益率 4.98% ，同类排名第 2 。 | 产品名称 | 投资类型 | | | 任职日期 近一年收益 银河排名 当前权益中枢 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰瑞悦3个月持有债券(FO ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 （来源：漫步红岭中路） ■ 11月理财规模再创历史新高 结合同业机构交流，全行业当月规模高点接近约34万亿元（高于普益口径数据披露），即使年底会有一定 规模回表，判断年底行业规模可以站稳33万亿元。同时，近期理财存量产品整改节奏有所缓释，考虑到纯 债类理财产品通过增加存款配置、加大委外基金交易等方式应对市场波动，判断产品净值受近期债券市场 波动的冲击整体可控，但也会存在年底赎回基金、落袋为安的动作。但从长期看，理财业内共识是债券回 报已窄，下一步要通过增加权益配置等方式发展"多资产"产品。 ■ 多资产配置是理财子公司利率中枢下行与寻求自身业绩增长的必然战略方向 当前，银行理财面临的核心矛盾在于传统以债券与非标资产为主的"固收+"策略收益中枢趋势性下行，这 与投资者对净值化产品仍抱有的"刚兑预期"或"稳健收益预期"形成落差。为破解这一困局，并开辟新的收 入增长曲线，向多资产、多策略拓展已成为头部理财子的共识性战略选择。2025年以来，部分领先机构如 招银理财、宁银理财等已在此领域进行了积极的产品布局与策略尝试，其方向不仅限于简单的权益资产增 配，更涵盖量化中性、 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The report highlights three key drivers for unlocking service sector growth in China: overseas "input demand," domestic "time-scarce" potential demand, and "innovation demand" arising from industrial upgrades [8][9] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a classic cycle dilemma in the service sector, where boosting service demand is seen as dependent on increasing resident income, creating a paradox [8][9] - The report discusses the evolution of anti-involution policies, emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and administrative guidance to address overcapacity issues in various sectors [9] Group 2: Banking Industry Outlook - The banking industry is projected to experience a decline in net interest margins, with the bottom line estimated at around 1.2% to 1.3% [22][23] - A potential decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points could lead to a year-on-year decline in net interest margins by approximately 5 to 8 basis points [23][24] - The report suggests that 2026 will likely mark the end of the current cycle of declining net interest margins, with a focus on quality stocks that are expected to see margin improvements [25] Group 3: Wealth Management and Asset Allocation - The report indicates that the scale of bank wealth management products reached a historical high of nearly 34 trillion yuan in November, with expectations to stabilize around 33 trillion yuan by year-end [26][27] - A shift towards multi-asset strategies is seen as essential for wealth management firms to adapt to declining returns from traditional fixed-income products [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of matching the risk-return profile of wealth management funds with investor preferences to successfully implement multi-asset strategies [28][30] Group 4: REITs Market Insights - The report notes a decline in the REITs index by 1.0% for the week ending December 5, 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [12][13] - The first city renewal REIT was successfully issued in Beijing, signaling new opportunities in the REITs market [14] - The report highlights the need for regulatory support to enhance the potential for REITs to attract more investment [14][30] Group 5: Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is showing a concentration in technology, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing slight increases [34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with notable gains in automotive and semiconductor industries, while utilities and consumer staples faced declines [34][35] - The earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components have been slightly revised upward, reflecting a stable outlook for most industries [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking wealth management industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [43]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector reached a historical high in scale, with approximately 34 trillion yuan in November, and is expected to stabilize around 33 trillion yuan by year-end [1]. - The industry consensus is shifting towards "multi-asset" products as traditional bond returns narrow, with leading institutions actively exploring diverse strategies beyond simple equity allocations [1][2]. - The successful implementation of multi-asset strategies relies on matching the risk-return characteristics of funds, emphasizing the need for long-term capital and investor education [2]. - Collaboration with public funds is essential for building investment capabilities, as banks cannot economically develop comprehensive research teams independently [3][6]. - Regulatory improvements are crucial for unlocking the potential of wealth management funds in the market, encouraging the development of innovative products that align with investor risk tolerance [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale and Performance - The wealth management sector's scale reached 31.7 trillion yuan in November, with a slight month-on-month increase [12][13]. - The average annualized yield for banking wealth management products in November was 1.23%, reflecting a decrease of 165 basis points from the previous month [12]. Product Development and Strategy - New product issuance in November totaled 271.7 billion yuan, primarily in fixed-income products, with the average performance benchmark for new products declining to 2.34% [20]. - The majority of maturing products met their performance benchmarks, indicating stability in product performance [31]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - By 2026, it is anticipated that wealth management funds will increasingly allocate to equity markets, with expected annual inflows ranging from 150 billion to 250 billion yuan [7]. - The unique requirements of wealth management funds for yield certainty and volatility control will drive public funds to innovate and develop matching products [7].

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况：上周A股市场整体呈现震荡上行态势，主要宽基指数多数收涨，其中创业板指和创业板50表 现亮眼，分别上涨1.86%和2.58%，带动成长板块回暖；上证50、沪深300亦稳步上行，分别上涨 1.09%、1.28%，显示蓝筹与大盘股支撑力较强。但微盘股指数逆势下跌1.23%，反映出市场结构性分化 持续。科创50微跌0.08%，成长风格内部出现一定分化。中证红利指数小幅上涨0.22%，价值风格保持 相对稳健，市场整体呈现"大强小弱、成长分化"的特征。 行业板块：上周万得一级行业指数多数上扬，受益于冬季用电高峰临近与煤价企稳回升，能源以2.1% 的升幅领涨；6G、卫星通信等主题炒作热度降温，通讯服务下跌3.02%，表现垫底。 基金发行：上周合计发行35只，其中股票型基金发行15只，混合型基金发行9只，债券型基金发行6只， FOF型基金发行5只，总发行份额365.89亿份。 基金表现：上周万得全基指数上涨0.46%。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数上涨0.69%，万得偏股混合 型基金指数上涨0.92%，万得债券型基金指数下跌0.05%。 图 一周市场 图 01 全球大类资产回顾 上周全球权益市场整体 ...

以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注于私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年，专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置，希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那 些事。 最近头部量化明汯跨界宏观，又一次引爆了市场。 热闹之余，不少投资人也发现，私募走向复合的特征，愈发明显。 何为复合？ 简单讲，单一策略走向多策略，单一资产走向多资产。 早期，高净值投资者可投资的渠道比较少，一般就是银行理财、房地产、信托。 银行理财也是当时唯一可信任的渠道，几乎无风险，而且门槛低、听得懂、不需要专业能力，但 收益空间极为有限。 房地产在2000-2010年投资回报还是相当大的，很多人也吃到了这波红利。 信托其实是对房地产行业的间接投资，比较依赖地产的发展，虽然8%-10%的固定收益非常诱 人，但风险也被严重低估。 后来随着地产泡沫破裂、"刚兑"的信托产品开始违约，私募逐步走进他们的视野，之后便成为其 投资的最佳选择。 为什么都会不约而同选择私募？ 为什么资产端会发生这样的变化呢？ 如果是从机构角度看，风云君认为主要是由于行业内卷日益严重，同质化速度比其他传统市场更 快，单一策略、资产的有效周期也更短。 要知道私募行业是 ...