近日，美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动。多国媒体指出，这是美国自1989年入侵巴拿马以来在拉美地区开 展的规模最大的军事行动。事后，美国总统特朗普召开记者会，宣称此举"远超'门罗主义'"，目的是确 保"美国在西半球的主导地位永远不再受到质疑"。美国去年底发布的国家安全战略报告加入了"门罗主 义的特朗普推论"。从19世纪"门罗主义"提出，到现在"新门罗主义"出现，拉美的自主发展举步维艰。 本报邀请中国国际问题研究院拉美和加勒比研究所所长宋均营与广东外语外贸大学拉丁美洲研究中心主 任袁东振予以析评。 立场分化，折射复杂政治生态 拉美国家在委内瑞拉事件上态度不同，表明各国在涉及本地区的重大问题上存在分歧，折射出拉美地区 极其复杂的政治生态 【观察】 在美国对委内瑞拉发动袭击并强行控制委总统及其夫人后，包括巴西总统卢拉、墨西哥总统辛鲍姆、智 利总统博里奇、古巴国家主席迪亚斯—卡内尔在内的多位拉美国家领导人都对美国的行为予以强烈谴 责。与此同时，拉美部分国家的中间派政府和相对"亲美"的拉美国家政府则态度谨慎。多名拉美专家学 者表示，拉美社会与政治精英已明显感受到"寒蝉效应"。" "委内瑞拉之后，美国的目标可能是哪些国家？"据 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation surrounding oil prices is complex, with short-term and long-term impacts from events like the Venezuela situation being minimal on oil prices due to low current production levels and high investment risks [1][2][5] - Trump's strategy regarding oil prices is not straightforward, as low oil prices could negatively impact Republican-aligned oil companies, suggesting that a balance is sought to maintain profitability while addressing inflation concerns [2][3] - The new Monroe Doctrine proposed by Trump aims to secure American interests in both the Americas and the Middle East, potentially increasing U.S. control over global oil production, which could reshape market dynamics and influence pricing [3][5] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The Venezuelan oil situation is unlikely to significantly alter global oil supply in the short term, as the country’s production is currently less than 1% of global output, despite its large reserves [1][10] - Trump's push for increased investment in Venezuelan oil is complicated by the need for substantial capital and the unstable political environment, which may deter companies from committing to such investments [2][5] - The U.S. aims to control approximately 63% of global oil production if it successfully manages resources in both the Americas and the Middle East, which would enhance its influence over global oil prices [3][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report predicts that the oil market may experience a supply-demand balance in 2026, driven by strategic reserves and potential increases in Chinese oil stockpiling, which could create a demand of up to 1.1 million barrels per day [5][32] - The EIA forecasts a daily supply surplus of 2.26 million barrels in 2026, contingent on various assumptions regarding stockpiling and OPEC production decisions [5][32] - The report suggests that oil prices are likely to rise due to geopolitical tensions and strategic reserve demands, with a strong support level at $56 for WTI crude oil [7][32] Group 3: Commodity Revaluation - The report highlights that oil is expected to undergo a revaluation similar to precious and industrial metals, driven by the expansion of the dollar's credit gap, although the pace may be slower due to the U.S.'s significant production and consumption of oil [6][34] - The historical ratios of gold to oil and copper to oil have reached extreme levels, indicating potential for upward movement in oil prices as market conditions evolve [6][34] - A potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2026 could further stimulate strategic stockpiling needs, leading to a notable increase in oil prices [6][34]

"经多年忽视，美国将重申并推行'门罗主义'，重塑西半球主导地位"，美国2025年12月发布的国家安全 战略报告如是写道。对同处西半球的拉美国家而言，他们从美国"新门罗主义"中感受到的不是和平和善 意，而是霸权和破坏。 1月3日，在长达4个多月的军事威胁之后，美国悍然对委内瑞拉使用武力，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜 罗夫妇，震惊国际社会。这一公然践踏《联合国宪章》的行径，是美国对外战略大调整背景下重拾"门 罗主义"的冒险尝试，严重违反国际法和国际关系基本准则，成为西半球地缘政治的"分水岭"。 单边制裁封锁经济命脉，干涉内政破坏和平稳定，霸权话术扭曲公平正义……近年来，美国对委内瑞拉 的极限施压从未停止。这一系列操作的背后，是"门罗主义"阴影在拉美的蔓延。强推"门罗主义"的美国 视西半球为其"势力范围"，对拉美地区的霸权逻辑不但从未改变，而且不断升级。 战略野心与野蛮行径 2025年1月美国新一届政府上台伊始，"门罗主义"便高调回归美国外交政策核心，一系列霸权扩张行径 在拉美接连上演。美国新版国家安全战略报告强调美国必须在西半球占据主导地位，"这种优势使我们 能在该地区需要的任何时间、任何地点自信地展现实力"。此次美 ...

近期，美方针对委内瑞拉的一系列动作——从实施军事打击，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇，到公 然宣称将"管理"委内瑞拉、控制委内瑞拉石油资源走向——向世界赤裸裸地展示了所谓"新门罗主义"的 霸道逻辑和强权底色。这一系列行径，不仅是对一个主权国家的粗暴侵犯，更是对以《联合国宪章》宗 旨和原则为核心的国际法和国际关系基本准则的肆意践踏和公然挑战。 （一） "新门罗主义"并非新概念，而是美国传统霸权政策在当代的延续和危险升级。"通过干预委内瑞拉，华 盛顿正在重拾19世纪的门罗主义"，西班牙《国家报》网站刊文指出，近几个月来美国对委内瑞拉的种 种举动表明，这实际上是"炮舰外交2.0版本"。 2025年末，美国对外公布新版国家安全战略报告，其中赫然写道："经过多年忽视，美国将重申并执行 门罗主义，以恢复美国在西半球的主导地位，维护本土安全并保障美国在该地区通达关键地理位置的能 力。"对委内瑞拉的军事行动，以及连日来美方对古巴等拉美国家的威胁，对丹麦格陵兰岛越来越不加 遮掩的领土野心，让国际社会对美方政策的走向有了更具象认知，对"新门罗主义"将给地区与世界带来 的影响产生了更为深切的忧虑。 "新门罗主义"将给地区带来什么？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to structural imbalances in global inventories and concerns about metal supply from the Venezuela event. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. In the short term, prices may remain strong if the CL premium does not reverse, and attention should be paid to changes in the CL premium and LME inventories [2]. - Zinc: Geopolitical tensions drive the zinc price up. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the import window opening may relieve short - term supply pressure. The smelting profit is under pressure, and demand is suppressed at high prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support at around 23,800 yuan/ton [5]. - Aluminum: The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by strong macro and policy expectations, but the supply is growing rigidly while demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term prices are expected to remain in a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract operating between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Tin: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect production. Demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more suppressed. Short - term prices are volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and continue to hold previously bought call options [8]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease, and demand is likely to decline slightly. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon spot is stable, and the futures price continues to fall. In January, the downstream开工率 is expected to decline, and inventories will accumulate. The price decline will relieve the cost pressure of downstream sectors. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to short - term export rush and long - term industry clearance. The price may be supported at 48,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton [13]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy market is in a high - level wide - range shock. The cost is the main driving factor, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures rose significantly. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities should be noted [16]. - Nickel: The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The Indonesian government's attitude towards nickel ore quotas is uncertain, and geopolitical tensions affect the supply. The spot market is tight, and the inventory pressure increases. Short - term prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock, with the main contract between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton [18]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, but demand is weak in the off - season. The cost support is strong, but the demand boost is insufficient. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a shock, with the main contract between 13,400 - 14,200 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 102,510 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.98% to 102,155 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 increased by 22.37 to 64.31 dollars/ton, and the import loss increased by 420.49 to 1,742 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import volume in November decreased by 3.90% to 27.11 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.82% to 64.04 million tons, and the electrolytic copper rod production start - up rate decreased to 47.82% [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.79% to 24,330 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 105.34 to 2,040 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 40 to - 35 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import volume in November decreased by 3.22% to 1.82 million tons. The galvanizing start - up rate increased to 54.39%, and the zinc alloy casting start - up rate decreased to 49.90% [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.16% to 24,300 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum import loss increased by 2,064 to 2,839 yuan/ton. The AL 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 70 to - 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production increased by 1.08% to 743.94 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% to 363.66 million tons. The aluminum profile start - up rate decreased to 50.70%, and the aluminum cable start - up rate increased to 59.60% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 3.16% to 380,200 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 16.67% to 700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 190.03% to - 87.01 dollars/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume increased by 29.81% to 15,099 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in December decreased by 0.06% to 15,950 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 12.61% to 6,935 tons [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the main contract price decreased by 1.37% to 8,635 yuan/ton. The 当月 - 连一 spread increased by 100.86% to 75 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 6.46% to 25.29 million tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.90% to 55.20 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.45% to 54,750 yuan/kg, and the main contract price decreased by 1.98% to 49,005 yuan/ton. The 当月 - 连一 spread increased by 326.09% to 1,300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production decreased by 0.83% to 2.38 million tons, and the silicon wafer production increased by 3.34% to 10.52 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 1.31% to 30.20 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 23,950 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 215 to 0 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November increased by 0.46% to 30.41 million tons. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate decreased to 56.19% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.93% to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 280 to - 740 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased by 2.50% to 130,118 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56,664 tons [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.12% to 145,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.08% to - 200 dollars/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged at - 190 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel product decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons, and the refined nickel import volume increased by 30.08% to 12,671 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% to 46,650 tons [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 13,900 yuan/ton, and the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 25 to - 70 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and the Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.22% to 45.74 million tons [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the "New Monroe Doctrine" represents a dangerous escalation of traditional U.S. hegemonic policies, showcasing a blatant disregard for international law and the principles of sovereign equality among nations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Implications - The "New Monroe Doctrine" is not a new concept but a continuation of U.S. interventionist policies that have historically caused suffering in Latin America, as evidenced by past military interventions and territorial acquisitions [4][5]. - The U.S. aims to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains under its influence, using military force and economic coercion to control the internal and external affairs of regional countries [3][5]. Group 2: Regional and Global Impact - The U.S. military actions against Venezuela and threats to other Latin American countries are seen as a significant threat to regional stability and the autonomy of these nations, potentially leading to increased political fragmentation and economic hardship [5][6]. - The "New Monroe Doctrine" poses risks not only to Latin America but also to global stability, as it undermines established international laws and norms, leading to a potential normalization of aggressive hegemonic behavior [6][7]. Group 3: International Response and Future Outlook - There is a growing consensus in the international community to defend the principles of international law and the UN Charter against U.S. actions, emphasizing the need for respect for sovereign equality and non-interference [7][8]. - The article concludes that history will ultimately reject the "New Monroe Doctrine," as the principles of justice and fairness will prevail over hegemonic power [7].

针对这一问题，商务部新闻发言人何亚东1月8日在商务部举行的新闻发布会上表示，美方的霸权行径， 严重违反国际法，侵犯委内瑞拉主权，威胁拉美地区和平与安全，中方对此坚决反对。中委经贸合作是 主权国家之间的合作，受到国际法和两国法律的保护，其他国家无权干涉。无论委政局如何变化，中方 持续深化两国经贸关系的意愿不会改变。 何亚东表示，中国同拉美国家开展经贸合作始终秉持平等相待、互利共赢原则，从不寻求势力范围，也 不针对任何一方。经济互补性是中拉经贸合作的坚实基础，开放包容、合作共赢是鲜明特色。中方将继 续同拉美国家一道，以团结协作应对国际风云变幻，以平等互利为基础开展经贸合作，实现共同发展。 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗日前被美方强行控制，目前这对中委经贸造成了什么影响？在美国奉行新门罗主 义、寻求西半球主导权的背景下，中国如何维护在拉美地区的经贸利益？ ...

【环球时报驻巴西特派记者 陈一鸣 时元皓 环球时报驻墨西哥特派记者 谢佳宁 环球时报记者 李迅典】 编者的话： 当地时间1 月7日，委内瑞拉方面表示，美国袭击已致包括平民在内的100人死亡。"今天是委内瑞拉，明天就可能是任何一个国家"，智 利总统博里奇此言道出了国际社会的普遍忧虑。自对委发动袭击并强行控制委总统马杜罗及其夫人后，美国还频繁对其他国 家发出威胁。对此，多位接受《环球时报》记者采访的拉美学者表示，拉美国家已明显感受到"寒蝉效应"。在本系列的前两 期文章中，我们为读者分析了美国"新门罗主义"呈现出的新特征，并讲述了美国两百年来如何借"门罗主义"锁住拉美的自主 发展权。本期文章将进一步揭示，"新门罗主义"背后是美帝国主义逻辑在当代的显化和扩张，这种不受国际法边界约束的权 力展示将给地区和平稳定、战后国际秩序以及美国自身带来巨大危害，值得国际社会高度警惕。 " 我们将面临一场噩梦，就像曾经的越南一样 " 在美国对委内瑞拉发动袭击并强行控制委总统及其夫人后，包括巴西总统卢拉、墨西哥总统辛鲍姆、智利总统博里奇、古巴 国家主席迪亚斯-卡内尔在内的多位拉美国家领导人都对美国的行为予以强烈谴责。上述国家的媒体密切 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of U.S. interventionism in Latin America, particularly through military actions against Venezuela, which reflects a broader strategy of "New Monroe Doctrine" under the Trump administration [1][7][8] - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is seen as a precursor to potential interventions in other Latin American countries, increasing the urgency for regional cooperation among nations like Cuba and Colombia [4][12] - The strategic logic behind U.S. actions combines both a retreat from global leadership and an expansion of influence in its "home region," indicating a shift in focus towards energy politics and traditional industries [9][10][11] Group 2 - The immediate effects of U.S. intervention are expected to lead to chaos in Venezuela, with implications for energy markets and potential benefits for U.S. domestic industries focused on traditional energy sources [12][13] - The long-term strategy aims to control Venezuela's oil resources, which could significantly benefit U.S. re-industrialization efforts, as the country seeks to leverage its energy assets for economic and political gains [12][14] - The timing of the U.S. actions is closely linked to domestic political pressures and economic challenges, suggesting that the intervention is not only about foreign policy but also about addressing internal issues [14]

古巴国际政策研究中心专家 克劳迪亚：美国的行为不仅对委内瑞拉，而且对该地区乃至全世界来说，都是一个极其危险的先例。所有抵制美国霸权与支配 政策的国家以及寻求维护领土与自然资源主权的国家，都可能因此受到波及。 拉美专家：拉美国家应加强团结 针对美国近期对委内瑞拉采取的一系列行动，来自秘鲁和古巴的国际问题专家表示，美国此举公然违反国际法和《联合国宪章》，是对弱势国家滥用强权。 秘鲁国际问题专家 卡哈特：美国的行为无疑是非法的，既没有联合国安理会的授权，也不存在事先发生的武装攻击。这是一种强权对弱势国家的滥用，实 力逻辑凌驾于规则之上。 这种行为不仅威胁委内瑞拉，也威胁着拉美乃至全球安全和稳定，地区国家应该团结起来，共同应对美国的霸权行为。 古巴国际政策研究中心专家 克劳迪亚：美国近期发布的《国家安全战略》以及对门罗主义的重申，即所谓"新门罗主义"，表明美国不仅视该地区为传统势 力范围，甚至是视其为"后院"，并试图确立霸权地位。面对这一形势，该地区的所有国家，尤其是小国，应通过协商共识，采取集体立场，反对美国的侵略 行为与干涉主义言论，反击美国对该地区进行掌控的意图。 专家表示，美国此次针对的是委内瑞拉，下一次则可 ...