"新门罗主义"完全无视规则与道义，正在制造远超地区冲突的系统性风险，将世界推向更不稳定、更不 安全的境地。一是推高地缘政治风险。美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动令拉美各国陷入"今天是委内瑞拉， 明天就可能是任何一个国家"的恐慌，引发强烈反弹，加剧地区对抗，严重威胁区域和平稳定。将域外 大国视作防范对象的敌对政策，也极易导致冲突外溢，引发更大范围的博弈对抗，加剧全球地缘政治紧 张态势。二是冲击全球经济秩序。美国通过关税壁垒、制裁大棒和资源攫取等手段破坏拉美经济，而拉 美作为世界重要资源供应地和新兴市场，其动荡必然通过能源价格波动、贸易渠道传导等方式，引发全 球经济连锁反应，增加市场不确定性。胁迫拉美与域外伙伴脱钩，更会扰乱全球产业链供应链稳定，阻 碍世界经济健康可持续发展。三是解构全球治理体系。在"新门罗主义"视域下，国际规则不过是可以随 意操纵的工具，"美国优先"才是最高准则。这种"强权即公理"的做法，必然摧毁国际社会对规则的信 任，让多边贸易体制等全球治理成果面临解构风险，世界或将倒退至"丛林法则"的黑暗时代。 玩弄强权注定失道寡助。"新门罗主义"让世界更加看清美国唯我独尊的霸权本质，进一步透支其国际信 誉和影响力 ...

（来源：求是网） 领土扩张是"新门罗主义"最突出的特征之一。现任美国政府宣称美国国土安全和利益的边界不止于本土或北 美，将西半球视为美国肆意妄为的势力范围，体现出赤裸裸的殖民主义、扩张主义贪欲。从签署行政令将墨西哥 湾更名为"美国湾"，到扬言不排除通过"军事或经济胁迫"夺取格陵兰岛控制权，再到多次表示要将加拿大并入美 国，如此明目张胆索要他国领土，令世界哗然。美国从不避讳对西半球战略通道的垂涎，多次放话要重夺巴拿马 运河控制权，加强对麦哲伦海峡的军事监控以及对北极航线的觊觎索取，旨在全方位控制西半球关键航道，掐住 美洲国家与域外地区交流往来的"咽喉"。美国还整合成立美国陆军西半球司令部，积极在拉美多国寻求军事准 入，意在为其扩张计划提供军事震慑和武力介入支持。 "新门罗主义"试图通过政治操纵使拉美国家俯首帖耳。一方面，粗暴干涉左翼政权。针对委内瑞拉、古巴、 尼加拉瓜3个左翼政府，使用"污名化"手段，给马杜罗编造"毒品恐怖主义阴谋罪"等罪名，给委内瑞拉、古巴、尼 加拉瓜贴上"暴政三角"标签，为美国施加干涉创造条件；随后，采取非法军事行动，图谋颠覆委内瑞拉马杜罗政 府，切断委内瑞拉对其他两国的经济补给，以达到"一 ...

作者：严谨（中国现代国际关系研究院拉美研究所所长助理、副研究员，中国古巴友好协会理事） 如果无法让古巴成为"政治孤岛"，那就先让它成为"能源孤岛"——特朗普政府正在这么干。 2月8日晚，古巴政府通过航行通告系统通知各航空公司，该国自10日起无法提供航空燃油，通告有效期 长达一个月。美国近期不断升级对古石油封锁，让古巴再次面临严峻的石油供应危机，一些国际航空公 司正暂停飞往古巴的航班。 在美国封锁下，古巴自去年12月中旬起便再无委内瑞拉石油供应。今年1月29日，美国政府又以古巴构 成所谓"国家安全威胁"为由，威胁对所有向古巴供应原油的国家输美商品加征从价关税，彻底切断其石 油进口渠道。 美国政府的石油封锁措施，构成"新门罗主义"之下美国绞杀拉美左翼、全面管控西半球战略的关键一 环。一方面，美国意图以"次级关税"胁迫更多供油国加入对古巴制裁行列，将这个加勒比岛国变成"能 源孤岛"，精准打击古巴的能源软肋；另一方面，通过窒息经济、扰乱民生，美国政府图谋在古巴诱发 社会动荡，胁迫古巴屈从美国的要求。 新一轮石油封锁进一步扩展了制裁的对象和边界，不仅试图胁迫更多国家加入"禁运联盟"，更企图将古 巴完全隔绝在国际经济、金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing cooperation between Latin American countries and China, despite pressure from the United States for these nations to choose sides between the two powers [1][2][3] - Uruguay's recent state visit to China resulted in multiple agreements that emphasize the strategic significance of the Uruguay-China relationship, with officials describing the visit as epoch-making [1] - Uruguay plans to apply for membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest free trade agreement, indicating a shift towards deeper economic integration with China [1] Group 2 - Brazil is also showing a willingness to enhance cooperation with China, considering a significant policy shift to negotiate partial trade agreements between the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and China [2] - The Lula administration in Brazil is reassessing its foreign strategy in light of China's growing influence in international trade and the trade tensions caused by the United States [2] - Argentina's bilateral trade with China is projected to grow by 56% by 2025, making China its second-largest trading partner, while trade with the United States only increased by 18% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the Panama Supreme Court declaring the concession rights of CK Hutchison unconstitutional reflects significant geopolitical changes in the Western Hemisphere amid a shift in U.S. policy under Trump's administration, which has elevated the region's importance in U.S. global strategy, surpassing that of the EU and Asia-Pacific [1] Group 1: U.S. Policy and Strategy - The U.S. has adopted a "New Monroe Doctrine" to consolidate its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, explicitly targeting non-Western Hemisphere competitors and aiming to establish a strategic backyard and security fortress dominated by the U.S. [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense's new defense strategy emphasizes protecting U.S. interests in the Western Hemisphere, aligning with the national security strategy to enhance control over Latin America as a critical area for U.S. expansion [2] - The U.S. is expected to adopt a more aggressive, coercive, and unilateral approach in its Latin American policies, with a clear direction towards multi-faceted and pervasive suppression of regional powers [2] Group 2: Impact on Latin America - The geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China has increased uncertainty in China-Latin America cooperation, but the long-term impact is expected to be limited as Latin American countries still view China as a respected and reliable trade partner [3] - The core tenets of the Monroe Doctrine have shifted from "America for Americans" to "America for Americans," guiding U.S. policy in Latin America and justifying interventionist and exclusionary policies that have historically caused significant suffering in the region [3] - The U.S. has conducted over 400 military interventions in its 250-year history, with 34% occurring in Latin America and the Caribbean, indicating a long-standing pattern of military involvement in the region [3] Group 3: Reactions and Alternatives - The U.S. intervention in Venezuela highlights the fundamental flaws of the "New Monroe Doctrine," revealing a regression from modern political civilization to primitive law, making it more challenging for Latin American countries to pursue peace and development [4] - Latin American countries are showing a divided attitude towards the U.S., with some factions compromising while others resist, yet many still prioritize their national interests in core matters [4] - The U.S. has failed to provide substantial economic support to meet the development needs of Latin American countries, instead using economic coercion and political manipulation, leading to a structural contradiction between U.S. security demands and Latin American development aspirations [5]

来源：环球时报 近日，巴拿马最高法院裁定长江和记特许经营权"违宪"一事引发广泛关注，该裁决表面是司法行为，实 则折射出美国政策转向背景下西半球地缘政治的深刻变化。自特朗普重新执政以来，西半球在美国全球 战略中的优先级别显著提升，据称其重要性已超过欧盟和亚太地区。只是，华盛顿的立场看似"退守"西 半球，但实际上仍企图在全球维护其绝对力量优势。"美国回撤西半球"不是战略收缩，而是霸权变种。 去年12月，白宫发布的新版国家安全战略报告公开推行"新门罗主义"，欲借此巩固美在西半球的霸权， 同时将矛头明确指向所有"非西半球竞争者"，要在西半球构建美占绝对主导地位的"战略后院"和"安全 堡垒"。1月23日，美国国防部发布新版国防战略报告，强调确保美国在西半球的利益，与美国新版国家 安全战略报告一脉相承。美国这份国防战略报告还强调特朗普对"门罗主义"的新推论，其目的就是要加 强对拉美地区的有效控制，把美洲打造成美国进一步向外扩张的重要"后院"和"跳板"。这两份报告预示 着未来美对拉美政策将更具进攻性、胁迫性和单边性，多领域、全方位、渗透式的打压政策将成为未来 美国对外战略的清晰导向。在美国实力相对衰落的情况下，拉美将成为美 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's recent actions of withdrawing from 66 international organizations and significantly increasing military spending, raising concerns about a shift towards unilateralism and military dominance [1][2] - The withdrawal from these organizations is framed as a move against multilateralism, aligning with Trump's "America First" policy and appealing to conservative voters who are skeptical of globalization [1][2] - The U.S. has a significant backlog of unpaid dues to the United Nations, exceeding $3 billion, which raises questions about the implications of losing voting rights in the UN due to non-payment [2] Group 2 - Trump's military budget proposal aims to increase defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion by 2027, which would be the largest budget in Pentagon history if approved [4] - The U.S. national debt exceeds 120% of GDP, and the proposed increase in military spending could add $5.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [5] - The funding for this military expansion is expected to come from significant cuts to social programs, indicating a prioritization of military spending over domestic welfare [6] Group 3 - The military expansion plan includes investments in advanced defense systems, such as the "Iron Dome" missile defense system and next-generation fighter jets, although there are doubts about the feasibility and technological readiness of these projects [7][8] - The U.S. Navy's shipbuilding capacity is limited, with only four shipyards capable of constructing large warships and a significant shortage of skilled labor, which could hinder the expansion goals [10] - The military strategy emphasizes remote strike capabilities and a shift towards a more aggressive posture in regions like the Middle East, with increased military presence and potential for conflict [6][11] Group 4 - The U.S. is pressuring allies to increase their defense spending, which has led to tensions within NATO and among allies in the Indo-Pacific region, raising concerns about the sustainability of these alliances [11][12] - The imposition of tariffs on goods from NATO allies further complicates the relationship, as countries express frustration over being asked to increase military spending while facing trade conflicts [12] - The global impact of U.S. military spending and pressure on allies is expected to divert resources from development aid to military needs, potentially igniting a new arms race [13]

【环球时报报道 记者 唐亚】乌拉圭东岸共和国总统奥尔西2月1日抵达北京，开启对中国的首次国事访问，为期7天。据乌拉圭《国家报》2月1日 报道，此访恰逢乌中两国建交38周年，意义重大，引发多方关注。奥尔西在出发前对媒体表示，自己在担任乌拉圭卡内洛内斯省省长期间曾多次 访华，中国在科技创新等方面的"经验非常值得借鉴"。他还表示，乌拉圭和中国尽管国情不同，但在国际关系方面都坚持互相尊重、求同存异和 多边主义，在这样的基础上，乌中关系必能行稳致远。相关专家告诉《环球时报》记者，当前美国推行"新门罗主义"，冲击拉美国家主权与领土 完整，乌总统访华之行并非只是代表本国寻求合作，也体现着整个拉美地区对未来发展方向的考量。 "乌拉圭看好中国，派出创纪录规模的代表团。"乌拉圭《辩论报》1月31日报道称，为巩固乌拉圭在亚洲市场的地位，总统奥尔西率领该国历史上 最大规模的代表团访华。《辩论报》称，此次超150人的官方代表团前所未有地大规模引入商界人士，不仅旨在推广本国产品，更致力于为国家奠 定新的投资机遇和技术合作基础。乌拉圭外长卢贝特金此前表示，此次公私协作向本国生产部门释放出"强烈信号"，彰显其扩大国际影响力的决 心。 据《国 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 30 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退，就业风险可能正趋 | | | | | 于稳定，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。关税的大部分影响已经传导至 | | | | | 经济，预计关税通胀将在 2026 年年中消退。他还说，不会置评美元走势。 | | | | | 2、美国财长贝森特认为，美国贸易逆差缩小应该会自动让美元随着时间的推移走 | | | | | 强，称"强美元政策意味着设定正确的基本面，如果我们有健全的政策，资金就会 | | | | | 流入"；美联储主席人选仍有四位。 | | | | | 3、特斯拉 Q4 财报电话会上 CE ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the commodity market driven by a new Monroe Doctrine centered around the "Trump Doctrine," which emphasizes the U.S. prioritizing the Western Hemisphere for geopolitical and resource security [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Strategy - The U.S. is expected to shift its foreign and security policy direction by early 2026, formally incorporating the "Trump Doctrine" into its National Security Strategy [1]. - This new approach aims to establish a controllable pricing base for resources, shipping routes, and supply chains, integrating them into national security and military deterrence frameworks [1][4]. - The U.S. is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance in securing resources, as evidenced by recent actions regarding Venezuela's oil assets and Greenland's mineral rights [4]. Group 2: Commodity Pricing Changes - Commodity pricing, particularly for copper, lithium, rare earths, energy, and precious metals, is undergoing a fundamental shift, now reflecting "availability, controllability, and political reliability" rather than just marginal supply and demand [2]. - A new commodity cycle characterized by a "security premium" is emerging, indicating that resources are increasingly viewed as geopolitical assets rather than mere commodities [3][25]. Group 3: Regional Political Dynamics - The U.S. strategic focus on the Western Hemisphere coincides with a significant political shift in Latin America, where there is a noticeable rightward movement in the political spectrum [5]. - The political transitions in countries like Argentina and Chile are expected to reduce resistance to U.S. initiatives aimed at enhancing security, trade, and supply chain cooperation [5][6]. Group 4: Resource and Economic Dimensions - The U.S. is highly dependent on imports for critical minerals, with over half of its consumption of 46 minerals reliant on foreign sources, including complete dependence on imports for 15 of them [10]. - The U.S. is attempting to reverse the structural changes in trade and investment in Latin America, where China has become a dominant trade partner in key sectors [6][9]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Management - The U.S. is reclassifying key minerals and energy assets as strategic facilities, integrating them into national security considerations [7]. - Recent trade agreements with countries like Argentina and Ecuador reflect a shift towards a political and security-driven market allocation of Latin American resources [8][9]. Group 6: Pricing Logic and Market Dynamics - The pricing logic for strategic resources is expected to undergo structural changes as they are formally integrated into national security frameworks [16]. - Key minerals are entering a phase dominated by "geopolitical pricing," characterized by heightened sensitivity to geopolitical news and limited price correction space [17][21]. - Precious metals are becoming not only safe-haven assets but also tools for pricing policy uncertainty, with expectations of a bullish trend in the first half of 2026 [18][25].