Market Data Summary - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract was 20,055 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -148,481 lots, an increase of 4,769 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -606 lots, an increase of 137 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton was 713,587 lots, an increase of 366,462 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 22,088 lots, an increase of 457 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 3,199, an increase of 33; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged [2]. - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex:3128B was 15,130 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM:1% tariff was 12,846 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons [2]. - The import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The import cotton profit was 1,187 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons [2]. - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, an increase of 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, an increase of 0.85 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, a decrease of 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, a decrease of 0.073 million tons [2]. - The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, a decrease of 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, a decrease of 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 2.09%, a decrease of 11.87%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.96%, an increase of 2.38% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.7%, an increase of 1.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.96%, an increase of 0.43% [2]. Industry News - As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton was 23,804,919 bales, totaling 5.373573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 5.273822 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89% [2]. - ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday, supported by a weak US dollar and speculative buying. The March cotton futures contract rose 0.11 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at 63.94 cents per pound [2]. Core View - On the supply side, the ginning mill's lint processing volume continues to increase, and the commercial inventory shows a seasonal growth trend. In terms of imports, the import cotton ports basically have more outflows than inflows, but the inventory in major import cotton ports has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, reaching 390,300 tons as of December 11, a 5 - month high [2]. - On the demand side, the peak - season procurement of downstream textile enterprises has ended, but the orders for medium - and high - count yarns are stable. They mostly choose to replenish inventory as needed, and with the support of potential long - term benefits, the short - term cotton price center may continue to rise [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the cotton (yarn) industry dated December 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the supply of cotton is sufficient with new cotton inspection volume exceeding 460 million tons and high port cotton stocks. The import quota is mostly used up, and the import cotton ports have more outflows than inflows. The inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week as of December 4, reaching 387,600 tons, a 5 - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, the demand shows marginal improvement, but the supply remains loose, limiting the rebound of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to new driving factors in the later stage [2] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 130,375 lots, up 100 lots; main contract cotton position: 478,567 lots, down 10,495 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 2,749 lots, down 4 lots; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,945 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 422 lots, down 104 lots; main contract cotton yarn position: 17,370 lots, up 1,307 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 12 lots, down 1 lot [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,999 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,843 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,882 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 21,059 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count): 22,234 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,801 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; monthly cotton import volume: 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; monthly cotton yarn import volume: 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; import cotton profit: 1,127 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey cloth inventory days: 31.97 days, up 0.85 days; monthly cloth output: 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; monthly yarn output: 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 110,034,804,300 US dollars, down 14,497,665,700 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 112,584,189,200 US dollars, down 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 7.48%, up 0.06%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 7.48%, up 0.06%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.78%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 6.64%, unchanged [2] Group 5: Industry News - According to the USDA report, in the week ending November 6, 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales increased by 292,100 bales, a 258% increase from the previous week and a 113% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 135,900 bales, a 7% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The ICE cotton futures fell on Monday as traders were cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.25 cents, or 0.39%, at 63.68 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of loose supply and demand in the cotton market continues. New cotton sales progress is significantly slow, market digestion rhythm is below expectations, and port inventories remain high. Downstream demand shows no obvious improvement, with fewer new orders for textile enterprises and a slowdown in cotton yarn shipment rhythm. The short - term rebound space of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the improvement of actual restocking willingness and macro - dynamics [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,095 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 132,985 lots, down 4,146 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 413 lots, up 34 lots - Cotton main contract positions are 513,147 lots, down 9,021 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 13,558 lots, up 8,642 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 2,639 sheets, up 50 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 12 sheets, down 1 sheet [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,770 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,936 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,978 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,932 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,234 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,772 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume is 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - Imported cotton profit is 1,073 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey cloth inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days - Cloth output is 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; yarn output is 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 110,034,804,300 US dollars, down 14,497,665,700 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 112,584,189,200 US dollars, down 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 10.99%, up 1.46%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 11%, up 1.47% - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.73%, down 0.24%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.67%, down 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, 20,147,916 bales of cotton have been inspected, totaling 4,548,335 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.88%. Xinjiang cotton cumulative inspection volume is 4,474,521 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.34% - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures fell slightly on Wednesday. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.11 cents, or 0.17%, at 64.46 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, new cotton sales progress is slow, and port inventory remains high. As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons - On the demand side, downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for textile enterprises and a slowdown in cotton yarn shipment rhythm. The current situation of loose supply and demand continues, and the short - term rebound space of cotton prices is limited [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of loose supply and demand in the cotton market continues. New cotton sales progress is significantly slow, market digestion rhythm is lower than expected, and port inventory remains high. Downstream demand has no obvious improvement, new orders of textile enterprises have decreased, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term rebound space of cotton prices is limited. Later, attention should be paid to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price was 19,925 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 128,839 hands, down 3,568 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 447 hands, up 249 hands. - Cotton main contract positions were 522,168 hands, down 21,990 hands; cotton yarn main contract positions were 4,916 hands, down 1,081 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 2,589 sheets, up 90 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 13 sheets, down 1 sheet. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,941 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,959 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) was 13,937 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 22,214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,765 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,043 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, up 0.85 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, down 0.073 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, down 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, down 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 9.53%, up 1.51%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 9.53%, up 1.62%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.96%, down 0.3%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.67%, down 0.64% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton decreased by 1,181 hands to 72,047 hands; the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4,202 hands to 134,658 hands; the net short positions decreased by 3,021 hands to 62,611 hands. - ICE cotton futures stabilized on Tuesday, rebounding after the previous day's decline, supported by bargain - hunting. The ICE March cotton futures contract fell 0.06 cents, or 0.10%, to settle at 64.57 cents per pound [2] 3.8 View Summary - The new cotton delivery is coming to an end, the cost is fixed with the price of seed cotton, but the sales progress of new cotton is significantly slow, the market digestion rhythm is lower than expected, and the port inventory remains high. The downstream demand has no obvious improvement, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, the shipment rhythm of cotton yarn has slowed down, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak. The current situation of loose supply and demand continues, and the short - term rebound space of cotton prices is limited [2] 3.9 Prompt Attention - Today there is no news. Later, attention should be paid to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply - demand situation in the domestic cotton (yarn) market remains loose. The new cotton delivery is almost finished, but the sales progress is slow, and the port inventory is high. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for spinning mills and slower yarn sales. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of actual restocking willingness and macro - dynamics [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,800 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 125,271 lots, down 682 lots; main contract cotton positions were 544,158 lots, down 2785 lots; cotton warehouse receipts were 2499, up 96. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 20,005 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 696 lots, up 215 lots; main contract cotton yarn positions were 5997 lots, down 546 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 14, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 14,980 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 1% tariff - based FCIndexM was 12,956 yuan/ton; the sliding - duty FCIndexM was 13,941 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,984 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5790 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the daily profit of imported cotton was 995 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, up 0.85 days; the monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11003480.43 million US dollars, down 1449766.57 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 11258418.92 million US dollars, down 708097.08 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 8.02%, up 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 7.91%, up 0.51%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.27%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.32%, down 0.41% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton by national cotton processing enterprises was 19045387 bales, totaling 4.299376 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.72%. The cumulative notarized inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 4.229727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.93%. ICE cotton futures fell on Monday, with the March contract down 0.08 cents, or 0.12%, to settle at 64.63 cents per pound [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided in the given content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals remain bearish, but the high cost of imported soybeans, weak performance of soybean meal, and reluctance of oil mills to lower basis quotes will keep basis quotes stable. The final decision of the US EPA on the biofuel obligation in 2026 will be a key factor affecting the long - term demand for soybean oil. Palm oil prices are under pressure from potential inventory growth due to increased production and slow exports. The Dalian palm oil futures will choose a new breakthrough direction, and the trend of Malaysian palm oil will have an impact on it [1]. Meals - The domestic soybean meal supply remains loose. Although downstream feed enterprises are replenishing their inventories from January to March and there is continuous procurement of US soybeans, it is difficult to see an upward trend in the market. The impact of domestic policy - based procurement on US soybeans is uncertain, and the soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile with dull short - term trading [2]. Pigs - At the beginning of the month, the supply from the breeding side decreased, and there was reluctance to sell, but the downstream slaughter volume was limited, resulting in a basically balanced market supply and demand. In December, the supply is expected to increase, and the pig price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile structure. The market should pay attention to the rhythm of pressure release at the end of the year. The price of large pigs is not promising, and second - round fattening should enter the market cautiously. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [4]. Corn - In the short term, due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the futures price remains firm, but the supply pressure has not been released, so the price increase is limited, and the overall performance is a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rhythm of corn supply [7]. Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical aspects, the ICE raw sugar futures fell sharply. The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are impacted to some extent, their prices are relatively firm, providing support for the price of new sugar in Guangxi. After the pre - sold sugar sources are sold out, the market is expected to rise, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures fell. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton is dull, but the pre - sold cotton is being delivered successively, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and the Zhengzhou cotton has strong support below. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a slightly stronger range [12]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens has entered a downward channel, and the production capacity is shrinking. The market supply pressure has been improved. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. The spot price of eggs may rebound slightly, but considering the overall pressure, the futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8560 yuan, up 50 yuan or 0.58% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2601 is 8288 yuan, up 44 yuan or 0.53%; the basis of Y2601 is 322 yuan, up 6 yuan or 1.90%. The US used 1053 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production in September [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of P2601 is 8652 yuan, up 26 yuan or 0.30%; the basis of P2601 is - 82 yuan, down 26 yuan or 46.43%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in January is 9077 yuan, up 82 yuan or 0.91% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10080 yuan, down 30 yuan or 0.30%; the futures price of OI601 is 9770 yuan, up 13 yuan or 0.13%; the basis of OI601 is 310 yuan, down 43 yuan or 12.18% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 202 yuan, down 2 yuan or 0.98%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) is - 52 yuan, up 6 yuan or 11.54%; the soybean - palm oil spread of 2601 is - 612 yuan, up 26 yuan or 4.08%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market is 1470 yuan, down 80 yuan or 5.16%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2601 is 1482 yuan, down 31 yuan or 2.05% [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.99%; the futures price of M2601 is 3039 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%; the basis of M2601 is 21 yuan, up 35 yuan or 250.00%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's盘面 import profit is 22 yuan, up 8 yuan or 57.1% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 40 yuan or - 1.63%; the futures price of RM2601 is 2423 yuan, down 29 yuan or - 1.18%; the basis of RM2601 is - 3 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 137.50%. The盘面 import profit of Canadian rapeseed with a 1 - month shipping schedule is 664 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 3.77% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of soybeans in Harbin is 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4126 yuan, up 18 yuan or 0.44%; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 186 yuan, down 18 yuan or - 10.71%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3766 yuan, up 6 yuan or 0.16%; the basis of the main soybean - two contract is 184 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 3.16% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 204 yuan, up 5 yuan or 2.51%; the rapeseed meal inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 20 yuan, down 17 yuan or - 45.95%; the oil - meal ratio in the spot market is 2.81, down 0.011 or - 0.40%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.73, up 0.019 or 0.70%; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market is 640 yuan, up 70 yuan or 12.28%; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 is 616 yuan, up 24 yuan or 4.05% [2]. Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 11925 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.08%; the basis of live pigs 2601 is 11495 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.26%; the spread between live pigs 1 - 5 is - 430 yuan, up 40 yuan or 8.51%. The position of the main contract is 101740, down 5802 or - 5.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11400 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 11550 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning is 11300 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong is 12310 yuan, up 900 yuan; in Hunan is 11210 yuan, up 300 yuan; in Hebei is 11450 yuan, up 50 yuan [4]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 208687, down 1528 or - 0.73%; the weekly white - strip price is 18.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 17.00 yuan, down 0.5 yuan or - 2.86%; the weekly sow price is 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight is 129.22 kg, up 0.4 kg or 0.32%; the weekly self - breeding profit is - 148 yuan/head, down 12.1 yuan or - 8.90%; the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 249 yuan/head, down 14.2 yuan or - 6.05%; the monthly inventory of fertile sows is 39900000 heads, down 450000 heads or - 1.12% [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 is 2236 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 0.36%; the basis of the Jinzhou Port flat - warehouse price is 2290 yuan, unchanged; the spread between corn 1 - 5 is - 37 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 15.63%. The Shekou bulk grain price is 2440 yuan, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 54 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 2022 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 0.03%; the import profit is 418 yuan, up 1 yuan or 0.15%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 819, up 145 or 17.70%; the inventory is 2235598, up 27399 or 1.24%; the number of warehouse receipts is 60215, unchanged [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 is 2542 yuan, down 24 yuan or - 0.94%; the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 48 yuan, up 24 yuan or 100.00%. The spread between corn starch 1 - 5 is - 74 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 17.46%; the spread between the starch - corn 01 contract on the disk is 306 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 4.97%; the profit of Shandong's starch enterprises is - 6 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 700.00%. The position is 326685, down 3818 or - 1.16%; the number of warehouse receipts is N/A [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5405 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.09%; the futures price of sugar 2605 is 5333 yuan, up 6 yuan or 0.11%; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.74 cents/pound, down 0.47 cents or - 3.09%. The spread between sugar 1 - 5 is 72 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 1.37%. The position of the main contract is 350573, down 10944 or - 3.03%; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the number of valid forecasts is 183, unchanged [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5440 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming is 5430 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.18%. The basis in Nanning is 107 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 13.01%; the basis in Kunming is 97 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 14.16%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) is 4172 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.36%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) is 5289 yuan, up 18 yuan or 0.34%. The spread between imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) and Nanning is - 1268 yuan, up 25 yuan or 1.93%; the spread between imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) and Nanning is - 151 yuan, up 28 yuan or 15.64% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1048.00 million tons, up 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons or 4.59%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate is 93.90%, down 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 93.90%, up 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The industrial sugar inventory in the US is 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%; the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi is 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons or 62.90%; the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. The sugar import volume is 55.00 million tons, up 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2601 is 13765 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.29%; the futures price of cotton 2605 is 13725 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.29%; the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.64 cents/pound, down 0.09 cents or - 0.14%. The spread between cotton 5 - 1 is - 40 yuan, unchanged. The position of the main contract is 546943, down 1275 or - 0.21%; the number of warehouse receipts is 2403, down 5; the number of valid forecasts is 1884, up 1621 [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14763 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.27%; the CC Index: 3128B is 14896 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.27%. The FC Index:M: 1% is 12956 yuan, up 21 yuan or 0.16%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1038 yuan, unchanged; the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract is 998 yuan, unchanged; the spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% is 1930 yuan, up 19 yuan or 0.97% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 363.97 million tons, up 70.91 million tons or 24.2%; the industrial

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply - demand situation in the cotton (yarn) market remains loose. The new cotton delivery is nearly finished, but the new flower sales progress is slow, and the market digestion is below expectations. The port inventory is high, and the downstream demand has no obvious improvement. The new orders of textile enterprises have decreased, and the overall market trading is light. The report suggests paying attention to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,045 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 124,589 lots, down 960 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 911 lots, down 147 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract position is 546,943 lots, up 1,675 lots; cotton yarn main contract position is 6,543 lots, down 1,364 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 2,403 sheets, down 5 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 14 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,936 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,935 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 20,988 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,932 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,834 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 785 thousand tons, down 76 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import quantity is 90 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons; cotton yarn import quantity is 140 thousand tons, up 10 thousand tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit is 964 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2,930.6 thousand tons, up 1,908.9 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2]. - Cloth output is 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; yarn output is 2001 thousand tons, down 73 thousand tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount is 11003480.43 thousand US dollars, down 1449766.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount is 11258418.92 thousand US dollars, down 708097.08 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 7.4%, up 2.24%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 7.4%, up 2.25% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.21%, up 0.38%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.73%, up 0.12% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 4.1794 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 379.3 thousand tons (9.98% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 3.6164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 373.9 thousand tons (11.53% increase); the commercial cotton in the inland is 182.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 thousand tons (0.33% increase) [2]. - As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380.3 thousand tons. The inventory of imported cotton in Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu is about 34.2 thousand tons, and the inventory in other ports is about 29.1 thousand tons [2]. 3.8 View Summary - The supply side: New cotton delivery is nearly finished, but the sales progress is slow, and the market digestion is below expectations. The port inventory remains high, and the RMB shipment volume is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading [2]. - The demand side: The downstream demand has no obvious improvement. New orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, the yarn shipment rhythm has slowed down, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light [2]. - The current supply - demand situation remains loose. In the future, pay attention to whether the actual replenishment willingness improves and macro - dynamics [2].

Report Date - The report is dated November 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is nearly finished, commercial cotton inventory is seasonally rising, and the pressure of new cotton listing is emerging. The import cotton ports maintain a pattern of more out than in and are at the highest level in four months. On the demand side, spinning mills' orders increase limitedly, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for domestic cotton textile exports, supporting cotton prices. Overall, domestic demand improves marginally, with support at the bottom and suppression from increased supply at the top. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 89,472 hands, down 10,304 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 504 hands, down 181 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 551,915 hands, up 5,004 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 21,700 hands, up 752 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,240 sheets, down 4 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 14 sheets, down 3 sheets [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,792 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 21,105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 13,852 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,369 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,794 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory is 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons [2] Industrial Situation - Cotton import volume is 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - Imported cotton profit is 941 yuan/ton, up 413 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory is 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; fabric output is 2.62 billion meters, down 1.8 million meters; yarn output is 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; grey - fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2] - For clothing and clothing accessories, the monthly export amount is 110,034.8043 million US dollars, down 14,497.6657 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, the monthly export amount is 112,584.1892 million US dollars, down 7,080.9708 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 4.73%, down 0.07 percentage points; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.39%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, US non - commercial long positions in cotton were 70,902 hands, down 1,689 hands from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 129,324 hands, up 6,748 hands from the previous week; net short positions were 58,422 hands, up 8,437 hands from the previous week. - As of the week ending November 18, about 51% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 47% the previous week. - For the week ending October 2, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 199,000 bales, up 28% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous 4 weeks; US cotton export shipments were 157,700 bales, up 34% from the previous week and 25% from the average of the previous 4 weeks [2]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-20 施压，但下方国内需求边际好转，盘面上，近期棉价存在止跌迹象，短期暂且观望。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13465 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19745 | -50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -83369 | -3799 棉纱期货前20名净持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to have a volatile trend. The supply side continues to exert pressure, while the domestic demand shows marginal improvement [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,680 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 80,695 hands, up 3,624 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 32 hands, down 134 hands [2]. - Cotton main - contract open interest is 564,995 hands, down 6,347 hands; cotton yarn main - contract open interest is 21,554 hands, down 657 hands [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,386 sheets, down 10 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 28 sheets, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,844 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,883 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,099 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 22,362 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,751 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The import cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, down 46,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 100 million meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.074 million tons, up 46,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247,000 US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516,000 US dollars, down 426,685.77 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 5.09%, down 10.09%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 5.16%, down 10.01% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 4.54%, down 1.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.23%, down 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of the week of November 14, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days is 27 days [2]. - ICE cotton futures hit an eight - month low on Monday. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.28 cents, or 0.43%, at 64.53 cents per pound [2]. Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: New cotton acquisition and processing progress is fast, and the acquisition is nearly over. The cotton acquisition price has risen, providing cost support. With the release of import quotas, the shipment of high - grade new cotton from Brazil has accelerated, and the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. The port inventory has reached a four - month high, with more arrivals and limited shipments [2]. - Demand side: In October, China's textile and clothing exports showed a double - decline trend in year - on - year and month - on - month terms, with a more significant decline in clothing exports. However, there are signs of marginal improvement in domestic retail demand [2].