Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit of Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton textile exports, also providing some support. With the current situation of long - short factors intertwined, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 116,286 lots, down 1,085 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 17 lots, up 3 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest is 573,905 lots, up 3,733 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 24,626 lots, down 341 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,619 pieces, up 325 pieces; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 19 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,972 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,958 yuan/ton; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,644 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,678 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 86.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 10 tons, up 3 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 886 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 102.17 tons, down 46 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 207.4 tons, up 4.6 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247 million US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516 million US dollars, down 426,685.77 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 6.8%, down 5.43%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 6.8%, down 5.43% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.46%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.85%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton has increased significantly with the concentrated listing of new cotton. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8478 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5217 million tons (a 22.43% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2.3115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4725 million tons (a 25.69% increase), and the commercial cotton in the inland area is 0.01883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00231 million tons (a 13.98% increase) [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The sign of the end of the US government shutdown boosted the market sentiment. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed up 0.69 cents, or 1.08%, at 64.31 cents per pound [2] Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is about 96.1%, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The current commercial inventory is gradually recovering, and the inventory of imported cotton has increased significantly, reaching a new high in 3.5 months. Due to less outbound of imported cotton, the market trading volume is limited, and the arrival volume is stable [2] - Demand side: The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, and enterprises' confidence in future demand shows signs of improvement, but the increase in new orders is still limited. Attention should be paid to the export situation [2]

支撑。当前多空交织，短期暂且观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13580 | 0 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19865 | 15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -115201 | -1940 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -20 | 71 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 570172 | -6107 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 24967 | -75 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3294 | 281 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 19 | 13 | | 现货市场 | | 14844 | -15 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20520 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) -109 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The new cotton cost is fixed, which supports the cotton price, but the upside is pressured by supply. It is expected that the cotton price will mainly fluctuate. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 113,512 lots, a decrease of 4,096 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 155 lots, an increase of 5 lots. - The main contract positions of cotton are 579,138 lots, a decrease of 1,553 lots; the main contract positions of cotton yarn are 25,040 lots, an increase of 19 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 2,769 sheets, an increase of 17 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 6 sheets, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged. - The daily import cotton profit is 729 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days; the坯布 inventory days are 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly cloth output is 2.811 billion meters, an increase of 110 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0738 million tons, an increase of 45,900 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1245.3247 million US dollars, a decrease of 169.2657 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1196.6516 million US dollars, a decrease of 42.6686 million US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.61%, an increase of 3.05%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.62%, an increase of 3.12%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.68%, a decrease of 1.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.87%, an increase of 0.1%. [2] Industry News - As of 24:00 on November 3, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season is 8,812,496 bales, totaling 1.990242 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.83%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 1.955048 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.01%. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures were stable on Wednesday. Investors focused on the supply - demand report to be released next week. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.03 cents, or 0.10%, to settle at 65.23 cents per pound. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday, with the support from optimistic demand expectations outweighing the stronger dollar. The December ICE cotton futures contract rose 0.14 cents, or 0.20%, to settle at 65.68 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang is accelerating. In the northern region, cotton picking is in the later stage, while in the southern region, it is still in the large - scale picking period. Due to drought and high - temperature in some southern areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected. As the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton is solid, which supports the cotton price, but the price is pressured by supply. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate weakly [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13535, down 65; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19795, down 125 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 109127, up 11097; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 89, down 219 [2]. - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 567827, down 6089; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 24848, up 677 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2570, up 76; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 6, up 2 [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 14841, down 18; China Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 20520, up 0.24 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13263; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21217 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14142; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 22568, up 26 [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5679, up 18; industrial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 86.1, down 0.9 [2]. - Cotton: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 10, up 3; cotton yarn: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130000, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 739, down 1; commercial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 102.17, down 46 [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 25.24, up 0.39; inventory days: grey cloth (monthly, days): 31.43, up 0.31 [2]. - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 28.11, up 1.1; output: yarn: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 207.38, up 4.59 [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 1245324.7, down 169265.7; monthly textile yarn, fabric and products export value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 1196651.6, down 42668.6 [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 7.79, up 1.52; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 8.07, up 1.8 [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 6.72, down 0.88; cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 7.72, down 0.04 [2]. Industry News - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released the latest data showing that the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.3996 million tons (last month's forecast was 25.4386 million tons), and the production forecast for the 2024/26 season is 25.3912 million tons. The global cotton consumption forecast is 25.0077 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The ending inventory forecast is 16.2279 million tons (last month's forecast was 15.3787 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The ending inventory forecast for the 2024/25 season is 15.8358 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton listing stage. The upside of cotton prices is restricted by hedging. In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited. The supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton harvesting is over 50%, faster than last year, with a slight increase in ginning factory processing costs, while inland cotton acquisition is slow due to rain. The demand side indicates that the downstream textile enterprises' demand is weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade situations on the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are -110,691 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are -141 lots, a decrease of 8 lots. - Cotton main contract positions are 579,084 lots, a decrease of 6,203 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 24,095 lots, a decrease of 94 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,471 sheets, a decrease of 17 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 6 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,475 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,116 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,050 yuan/ton. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,145 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,645 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons. - Cotton import volume is 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 130,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 823 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days; grey fabric inventory days are 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.811 billion meters, an increase of 0.11 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 2.0738 million tons, an increase of 45,900 tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 12,453,247,000 US dollars, a decrease of 1,692,657,000 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 11,966,516,000 US dollars, a decrease of 426,686,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 6.5%, down 0.08%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 6.5%, down 0.08%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.2%, unchanged; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.97%, down 0.03% [2] Industry News - As of October 27, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season is 6,378,658 bales, totaling 1,440,701 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.28%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 1,414,998 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday, driven by a weak US dollar and optimism about the alleviation of trade tensions supporting global cotton demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract closed up 0.36 cents, or 0.40%, at 64.56 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current new cotton is in the listing stage, with upside pressure from corresponding hedging. It is expected that the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited. The downstream textile enterprises' demand is relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment has not improved significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the trade situation on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 112,802 lots, down 5,250 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 585,287 lots, down 5,622 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 2,488 lots, down 15 lots. Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 133 lots, down 117 lots; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 24,189 lots, up 139 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 6 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,056 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty): 14,010 yuan/ton; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,186 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,535 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,667 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons; cotton import volume: 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130,000 tons, unchanged; imported cotton profit: 793 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton: 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 25.24 days, up 0.39 days; grey fabric inventory days: 31.43 days, up 0.31 days; cloth output: 2.811 billion meters, up 0.11 billion meters; yarn output: 2.0738 million tons, up 45,900 tons; monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 12453247 thousand US dollars, down 1692657 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 11966516 thousand US dollars, down 426686 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of cotton: 6.58%, down 1.15%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of cotton: 6.58%, down 1.16%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.2%, down 0.49%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - About 62% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought as of the week ending October 21, unchanged from 61% in the previous week. In the domestic market, Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress exceeding 50%, faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning factories increased slightly. Due to continuous rainfall, the purchase progress of inland cotton was slow [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Newly harvested cotton in Xinjiang has faster picking and selling progress than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather in the production area will slow down the picking progress. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost still has overall support. The spinning mills' operating rate remains low, and the peak season continues to be weak. It is expected that the enthusiasm for restocking by spinning mills will be low in the later period. Overall, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton in the new season bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that cotton prices will fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 107,544 lots, down 10,544 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 262 lots, down 60 lots. The main - contract position of cotton is 593,229 lots, up 231 lots; the main - contract position of cotton yarn is 23,282 lots, up 1,127 lots. The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 2,579, down 19; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,052 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,007 yuan/ton. The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,466 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,742 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged. The daily profit of imported cotton is 672 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 8.28%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 8.33%, up 0.11%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.29%, up 0.99%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.93%, up 0.29% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 177,200 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average export volume of 13,600 tons, a 7% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 12,770 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 280,900 tons. The ICE cotton futures fell slightly on Monday. The December cotton futures contract on ICE closed down 0.12 cents, or 0.19%, at 64.16 cents per pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market's commercial inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price has slightly increased, with machine - picked cotton around 3.0 yuan per catty and hand - picked cotton around 3.50 yuan per catty. New cotton is gradually coming to the market, and the new year's harvest is obvious, leading to increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, textile mill orders have not improved significantly, the operating rate is still lower than last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream has not emerged. It is recommended to keep a wait - and - see attitude for now and pay attention to the new cotton purchase price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 74,836 hands, down 8,212 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 580,856 hands, up 12,867 hands; cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 2,773 sheets, down 50 sheets. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 506 hands, up 54 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 18,204 hands, up 1,792 hands; cotton yarn's warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 12,808 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 14,674 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,856 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,224 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,766 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 889 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns and fabrics is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.65%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.98%, down 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.77%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of October 9, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises decreased, mainly due to accelerated pre - holiday shipments and a reduction in the operating rate of textile enterprises. The inventory of large factories in Xinjiang is about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises is 10 - 15 days. ICE cotton futures declined slightly on Tuesday due to weakening global cotton demand expectations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has low commercial inventory, but the new - year harvest is significant, increasing supply pressure. The demand side shows no obvious improvement in textile factory orders, with the operating rate lower than the same period last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 66,624 lots, up 551 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 560 lots, down 214 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 567,989 lots, up 4,581 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 16,412 lots, up 2,780 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 2,823, down 44; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (sliding - scale duty) was 13,866 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 22,524 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 903 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 9.72%, up 0.95%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 9.71%, up 0.98%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.29%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 221.6863 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. - The ICE cotton futures closed down on Monday due to lingering demand concerns caused by trade tensions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the domestic cotton market is gradually increasing as new cotton is being listed and the new season shows a significant bumper harvest. Meanwhile, the demand side has not improved significantly, with textile mills' orders not showing obvious improvement and the operating rate lower than the same period last year. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not emerged. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weak after the holiday [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,545 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 37,086 lots, down 4,866 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 106 lots, down 41 lots [2] - The main contract holding volume of cotton is 550,497 lots, up 15,043 lots; the main contract holding volume of cotton yarn is 3,221 lots, down 687 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 3,030, down 51; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,739 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,146 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,311 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 14,068 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count combed cotton yarn is 22,497 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,791 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.17%, up 0.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.17%, up 0.5% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.51%, up 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.65%, up 0.26% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In October, the temperature in southern Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton - growing areas is expected to be higher and precipitation lower, which is conducive to cotton boll opening and harvesting; the northern Xinjiang cotton - growing area may experience low - temperature and frost due to cold air, which is not conducive to cotton harvesting and drying; most of the Yellow River Basin cotton - growing areas will have normal temperature but more precipitation, which may cause continuous rainy weather, affecting cotton boll opening and picking and reducing cotton quality [2]