Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee was held. Fut ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-9 贵⾦属震荡运⾏，关注周内FOMC会议 周⼀贵⾦属震荡运⾏，市场在议息会议前表现平静。短期来看，12⽉议息 会议降息25BP的预期交易相对充分，靴⼦落地后或有调整压⼒，但幅度 可能有限，⽉内贵⾦属⽅向预计延续震荡向上。 重点资讯： 1）日本第三季度实际GDP年化季环比终值降2.3%，预期降2%，初值降 1.8%；季环比终值降0.6%，预期降0.5%，初值降0.4%。修正后的数据 显示，日本经济在7-9月当季的萎缩幅度大于初步估计，证实了这是 六个季度以来的首次萎缩。 2）日本政府向临时国会提交了2025年度补充预算案。这将成为执行 经济对策的财源，用于应对物价高涨和强化经济增长战略。在首相高 市早苗"负责任的积极财政"方针下，一般会计支出达到18.3034万 亿日元，创下新冠疫情后新高。由于税收增加部分无法覆盖支出，逾 6成财政收入将通过追加发行作为借款的国债来填补。 3）美国财长贝森特：美国今年GDP增长率将达3%；预计明年通胀率将 大幅下降，债券市场迎来2020年以来表现最佳的一年。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属震荡 ...

分析认为，沪铜期货价格连续创历史新高，主要源于供应端收缩+宏观面宽松+需求端结构性增长。 智通财经获悉，2025年末，铜市迎来狂飙行情。过去一周内，伦敦金属交易所(LME)与上海期货交易所 的铜期货价格连续三次刷新历史纪录，国内沪铜主力合约价格更是强势突破9.3万元/吨大关，单周涨幅 高达6.12%，领涨全球市场。 国际方面，全球铜矿供应的"长期缺口"已从预期转为现实，智利Codelco2025年产量预计同比下降3%， 老旧矿山品位下滑、投资不足导致产能增长停滞；印尼出台精矿出口限制政策，非洲铜矿项目因政局动 荡开发滞后，全球铜矿新增产能增速不足2%，远低于需求增速。而Codelco对欧美买家的长单升水飙 升，进一步凸显全球铜矿"卖方市场"格局。 此外，美联储12月降息预期升温，且特朗普阵营的哈塞特大概率当选新一任美联储主席，这也将提升特 朗普政府对白宫的控制力，增强市场对2026年美联储流动性宽松的预期，也有利于铜价的上涨。 国内方面，中国有色金属工业协会明确表示，已叫停约200万吨铜冶炼违规产能，CSPT成员企业达 成"2026年减产10%"共识。更关键的是，铜精矿加工费已跌至低于冶炼成本线，导致国内冶炼 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国通胀和消费者信心数据支持降息，中国央行连续 13 个月增持黄金，地缘交易编 | | | 长线持有 | 辑减少，黄金价格维持高位，市场等待的美联储议息会议。黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | | | 超级宏观周来临，美联储议息会议和国内政治局会议在即，基本面上 LME 铜注销仓 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜 | | ★ | | 续创新高，高位波动放大，多单移动止盈，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 超级宏观周来临，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国 | | ★ | ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced an impressive 80% increase in the Shenwan first-level industry index this year, leading all sectors in the A-share market, with a notable 5.35% rise in the first week of December [1][6]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Eight thematic ETFs, including the Southern Nonferrous Metals ETF, have attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in investments this year, indicating strong market interest [1][6]. - The copper index has surged over 103%, reflecting a significant value reassessment driven by multiple certainties [6]. - Recent data shows a net inflow of 3.94 million yuan into the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable interest in rare earths, tungsten, and copper [7]. Sector Differentiation - The non-ferrous metals market is witnessing a divergence, with copper being the primary focus due to its essential role in new energy and AI data center construction [7][8]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are benefiting from global central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts, maintaining strong independent performance [7]. - Aluminum is also gaining recognition due to supply-side constraints and demand trends towards lightweight materials [7]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the combination of emerging demands from AI, electricity, and new energy sectors, along with long-term supply constraints, will lead to better performance for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin by 2026 [8][10]. - The anticipated global shortage of refined copper is projected to be 270,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 580,000 tons by 2027, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [10]. Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors remain bullish on non-ferrous metals, with predictions for copper prices to range between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton by 2026 [11]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish market atmosphere, suggesting potential for cross-year trends [11]. - Caution is advised regarding investment timing, as the current high market interest may lead to overvaluation risks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal index has surged by 80% this year, driven by global liquidity expectations, supportive policies, and new demands from AI and renewable energy [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index has increased by 80.45% year-to-date, with the copper index soaring over 103% [3] - In the first week of December alone, the non-ferrous metal index rose by 5.35%, outperforming all other sectors [1] - Eight themed ETFs in the non-ferrous metal sector attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in investments this year, indicating strong market interest [1][3] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Institutional consensus is reflected in the significant net inflow of 18.5 billion yuan into non-ferrous metal ETFs, with the Southern Non-Ferrous Metal ETF alone attracting approximately 7.5 billion yuan [3] - Recent data shows a net inflow of 394 million yuan into the non-ferrous metal sector over the past five days, including rare earths and copper [4] - There are signs of potential overheating in market sentiment, with some short-term speculative funds showing signs of outflow [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply constraints in the copper market are expected to persist, with major copper companies facing challenges such as declining ore grades and rising extraction costs [7] - The demand for metals like copper and aluminum is anticipated to experience explosive growth due to emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers [6][7] - Analysts predict that the global refined copper market will face shortages of 270,000 tons, 460,000 tons, and 580,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the strong performance of metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will continue into 2026, driven by new demand and supply constraints [5][8] - The market is optimistic about the potential for a cross-year rally in non-ferrous metals, supported by favorable fundamentals and a bullish market atmosphere [8][9] - Key drivers for the non-ferrous metal sector remain unchanged, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming year [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold oscillates, and silver adjusts at a high level. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are mainly affected by the silver capital side. In the long - term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [3][5]. - The logical environment is generally favorable for the rise of precious metals this month. The expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The squeeze trading in silver may still be repeated this month [5]. - Looking ahead, the range of spot gold in London this week is expected to be between $4000 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US initial jobless claims last week were 191,000, with an expected 220,000. The four - week average was 214,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, with an expected 1.961 million. The current application level is consistent with historically low lay - offs, which may ease market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US in November was 71,321, a 53.4% decrease from the previous value. Year - on - year, it increased by 23.5% [4]. - The Chicago Fed expects the US unemployment rate in November to remain stable at around 4.4% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, gold oscillated, and silver adjusted at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support at the previously broken level of $53 - $54. The US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims announced on the day conformed to seasonal patterns and had a low impact on the market [3][5]. - This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The relatively dovish candidate Hassett has the highest popularity. The period from nomination to taking office may be the smoothest time for trading on the expectation of loose liquidity and the independence of the Fed [5]. - The spot lease rate of London silver remains at a relatively high level, and the squeeze trading is spreading from London to Asia and the US, which may still be repeated this month [5]. 3.3 Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index shows that the commodity index is 2272.72 (+0.11%), the commodity 20 index is 2593.02 (+0.20%), and the industrial products index is 2228.63 (+0.41%) [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 4, 2025, the precious metals index was 3485.92, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 1.61%, a 1 - month increase of 7.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 57.56% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1371.00 (+0.78%) [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, precious metals maintained a volatile and upward trend, with significant high - level fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment in the US increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the expectation of loose liquidity still dominated the market. The overall logical environment is conducive to the rise of precious metals this month, and in the long - term, the decline of the US dollar credit will drive the upward trend of precious metals. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - The cooling of the US labor market exceeded expectations. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90%. [2] - The US import and export price indices in September were flat month - on - month, with the import price index rising 0.3% year - on - year and the export price index rising 3.8% year - on - year. [2] - US President Trump mentioned that Kevin Hassett is a potential Fed chairman. [2] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the US economy will achieve "real wage growth" and "low - inflation growth" and return to 4% growth in 2026. [2] Price Logic - Short - term: Precious metals were volatile and upward on Wednesday, with large fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the loose liquidity expectation dominated the market. [1][3] - Medium - term: This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving force. With the approaching Fed chairman nomination, the relatively dovish Hassett has the highest popularity, and the period from nomination to taking office may see the smoothest trading of loose liquidity expectations and Fed independence. The spot - end driving force for silver remains, and the squeeze - out trading is spreading. [3] - Long - term: The long - term upward trend of precious metals is driven by the contraction of the US dollar credit. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion may lead to a mild economic recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. [3] Outlook - This week, the range of the London gold spot is expected to be between $4,000 and $4,400 per ounce, and the range of the London silver spot is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce. [3] Commodity Index - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41%. [43] - The precious metal index on December 3, 2025, was 3506.69, with a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day increase of 4.03%, a 1 - month increase of 9.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 58.50%. [45]

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-3 宽松预期持续利好，⽩银⾼位波动加⼤ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 1）据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timira os报道，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普总统似乎 已倾向于选择长期顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任这一职位。此 次任命可能成为特朗普第二任期最重要的人事决策。 据知情人士透 露，哈塞特已向白宫和其他政府官员表示希望获得这一职位，并认为 自己是最佳候选人。 2）美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数下降0.5点至48.2，连续九个月低于 50的荣枯线，创下四个月来的最大萎缩。新订单指数降至自7月以来 最快的收缩速度，积压订单则创七个月最大降幅。 3）欧元区11月CPI初值同比升2.2%，预期升2.1%，10月终值升2.1%； 环比降0.3%，预期降0.3%，10月终值升0.2%。欧元区11月核心CPI初 值同比升2.4%，预期升2.5%，10月终值升2.4%；环比降0.4%，10月终 值升0.2%。欧元区10月失业率为6.4%，预期6.3%，前值从6.3%修正为 6.4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the documents Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Aluminum - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. Nickel - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17].