Core Viewpoint - The NYMEX platinum futures prices have surged significantly, reaching a high of $1955 per ounce, marking a more than 110% increase year-to-date, driven by structural supply shortages, rising demand, and supportive macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Price Movement - Since December, NYMEX platinum futures have increased over 15%, with notable monthly gains of 30% in June and 18% in September [2][6]. - The domestic market has also seen significant price increases, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising from 405 yuan per gram to a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, a 30% increase since its listing [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, where supply is constrained due to underinvestment, power shortages, and aging infrastructure [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply shortfall of about 20 tons in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of supply deficits [3]. Emerging Demand Factors - The demand for platinum is diversifying, with significant growth expected in hydrogen energy applications, where platinum is essential for fuel cells [4][7]. - China's investment demand for platinum is projected to surge by 100% by 2025, positioning it as the largest retail investment market globally [4]. Macroeconomic Influences - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and expectations of continued monetary easing have bolstered platinum prices [5][10]. - The correlation between platinum and gold prices has been highlighted, with both metals benefiting from macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the price of platinum may continue to rise, there could be periods of high volatility and potential corrections due to profit-taking [10][11]. - The future price predictions for platinum in 2026 vary widely, reflecting market uncertainties and differing views on economic conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium have surged significantly, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints, with platinum prices increasing by 98.67% since the beginning of the year [3][11]. Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - On December 15, the domestic futures market saw platinum and palladium contracts leading the gains, with platinum 2606 contract hitting the limit up, rising by 7%, and palladium 2606 increasing by 4.73% [1][9]. - Platinum prices have experienced three waves of increases throughout the year, primarily driven by safe-haven buying amid concerns over U.S. tech stock bubbles and weakening dollar credit due to monetary easing [3][11]. - The first wave of price increases occurred from May to July, attributed to a 13% year-on-year decline in South African platinum group metal production due to extreme weather and other disruptions [4][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - South Africa, which produces 70% of the world's platinum, is facing significant supply challenges, with production expected to decline by 6% in 2025 due to ongoing power shortages and rising costs [5][11]. - Industrial demand for platinum is projected to grow, with light vehicle production recovery supporting platinum catalyst demand, expected to maintain at 95 tons, accounting for 38% of total demand in 2025 [5][11]. - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a third consecutive year of global platinum market shortages in 2025, with a projected deficit of 30 tons (approximately 964,000 ounces) [5][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that both platinum and palladium have potential for further price increases due to previously low valuations and ongoing supply shortages [5][13]. - The structural shortage of platinum is expected to support higher price levels, with the gold-to-platinum ratio currently at 2.4, significantly above the historical norm of below 1.5 [5][13]. - However, potential bearish factors include delays in Europe's fuel vehicle ban, which may benefit palladium, and a possible increase in platinum supply from the recycling market [6][13].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a volatile and upward trend in December. After the 12 - month FOMC meeting, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the amplitude is likely to be limited. The long - term upward trend of precious metals will be dominated by the contraction of the US dollar's credit, and silver may have greater elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Key News - US President Trump may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods and will use support for immediate and substantial interest - rate cuts as a criterion for selecting the new Fed chair [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report shows that private - sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four - week period ending November 22 [2]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November was 99, up from 98.2 in the previous period [2]. - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's financial system is generally stable, and the government is responsible for achieving medium - to long - term fiscal sustainability. The BOJ is closely monitoring the risk exposure of Japanese banks to non - bank financial institutions outside Japan. The exchange rate should follow the fundamentals, and if inflation accelerates rapidly, the policy will be adjusted. The economy is expected to resume positive growth in Q4 and continue to grow thereafter, and the BOJ has been gradually reducing the easing intensity [2]. 3.2. Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold and silver prices were relatively strong and volatile, with silver showing resilience at high levels. The market is waiting for the outcome of the interest - rate meeting. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has been fully traded, and there may be adjustment pressure after the meeting, but the amplitude may be limited [1][3]. - In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving factor for the quarter. The probability of a more dovish candidate, Hassett, being nominated as the Fed chair is increasing. After the nomination and before taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence [3]. - The leading role of silver provides support for gold prices. The squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper and may remain a hot topic for capital trading this month [3]. - In the long term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar's credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle to a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity [3]. 3.3. Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4,000, 4,400], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [53, 60] [3]. 3.4. Commodity Indexes - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index decreased by 1.08%, 1.08%, and 1.38% respectively, with values of 2,242.53, 2,560.81, and 2,185.44 [43]. 3.5. Precious Metals Index - On December 9, 2025, the precious metals index was 3495.55, with a daily decline of 0.74%, a decline of 0.32% in the past five days, an increase of 4.20% in the past month, and an increase of 58.00% since the beginning of the year [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On December 8, equity index futures rose while long - dated CGB futures declined; commodity futures had mixed performance, with coking coal and coke leading the declines [2][9][11] - Gold and silver are expected to maintain a range - bound upward trend in December. Copper prices will also maintain a range - bound and upward trend in the medium to long term [15][17][21] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 8, in China's financial futures, IC rose 1.0%, IM rose 0.9%, and TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Live Hog (up 2.3% with 4.0% month - on - month increase in open interest), LSFO (up 2.2% with 0.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Silver (up 2.1% with 3.7% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were Coking Coal (down 6.1% with 5.1% month - on - month rise in open interest), Coke (down 5.8% with 5.8% month - on - month increase in open interest), and Offset Paper (down 2.8% with 5.2% month - on - month growth in open interest) [9][10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold, Silver - On December 8, Gold rose 0.1% to 985.7 yuan/g, and Silver rose 2.1% to 13706 yuan/kg. In December, gold is expected to continue a range - bound upward trend. The December Fed meeting won't boost dovish expectations, but post - meeting pullback is likely to be limited. Liquidity easing remains key, and silver - led gains support gold prices. Silver is resilient short - term, with post - meeting pullback risks, but December is favorable for upward range - trading. Long - term, dollar credit contraction drives gains [15][16][17] 1.2.2 Copper - On December 8, Copper rose 1.5% to 92970 yuan/ton. Rising market expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a pullback in the U.S. dollar index underpinned copper prices. Ore supply disruptions and production cuts will likely push down ore treatment charges, and refined copper supply will contract. LME canceled warrants surged, and there are potential short - squeeze risks. Demand is lackluster, but strong supply - demand tightness expectations persist, so copper prices will maintain a range - bound and upward trend in the medium to long term [20][21][22] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On December 8, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study 2026 economic work and review the Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Law - Based Governance of the Country. Next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability, continue proactive fiscal and moderately accommodative monetary policies, and enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [25] 2.2 Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national futures market's cumulative trading volume was 8,116.71 million contracts, a 14.74% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative trading turnover reached 675.45 trillion yuan, up 20.19% from the same period last year [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, precious metals fluctuated steadily, and the market was calm ahead of the FOMC meeting. In the short term, the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. After the decision is announced, there may be some downward pressure, but the adjustment range is likely to be limited. The precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations within the month. In the long run, the narrative of the shrinking US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Price Logic**: The expectation of loose liquidity remains the core driver at the quarterly level. The probability of the relatively dovish candidate Hasset being nominated as the Fed Chair is increasing. The period from nomination to taking office may be the most favorable time for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence. Also, the leading effect of silver is supporting the gold price, and the squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper, which may remain a hot trading topic this month. In the long run, the US monetary expansion and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle towards a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60] this week [3] - **Index Performance**: On December 8, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily decline of 0.13%, a 5 - day increase of 0.66%, a 1 - month increase of 6.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 59.17% [45] 3.2 Key News - **Japan's Economy**: Japan's real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 was revised down to - 2.3% (expected - 2%, initial - 1.8%), and the quarterly growth rate was revised down to - 0.6% (expected - 0.5%, initial - 0.4%), indicating the first economic contraction in six quarters. The Japanese government submitted a supplementary budget for 2025 to the temporary parliament. Under the "responsible and active fiscal" policy, the general accounting expenditure reached 18.3034 trillion yen, a post - COVID high. More than 60% of the fiscal revenue will be filled by issuing additional national bonds [2] - **US Economy**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and the inflation rate is expected to drop significantly next year. The bond market will have its best performance since 2020 [2] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On December 8, 2025, the commodity index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [43]

分析认为，沪铜期货价格连续创历史新高，主要源于供应端收缩+宏观面宽松+需求端结构性增长。 智通财经获悉，2025年末，铜市迎来狂飙行情。过去一周内，伦敦金属交易所(LME)与上海期货交易所 的铜期货价格连续三次刷新历史纪录，国内沪铜主力合约价格更是强势突破9.3万元/吨大关，单周涨幅 高达6.12%，领涨全球市场。 国际方面，全球铜矿供应的"长期缺口"已从预期转为现实，智利Codelco2025年产量预计同比下降3%， 老旧矿山品位下滑、投资不足导致产能增长停滞；印尼出台精矿出口限制政策，非洲铜矿项目因政局动 荡开发滞后，全球铜矿新增产能增速不足2%，远低于需求增速。而Codelco对欧美买家的长单升水飙 升，进一步凸显全球铜矿"卖方市场"格局。 此外，美联储12月降息预期升温，且特朗普阵营的哈塞特大概率当选新一任美联储主席，这也将提升特 朗普政府对白宫的控制力，增强市场对2026年美联储流动性宽松的预期，也有利于铜价的上涨。 国内方面，中国有色金属工业协会明确表示，已叫停约200万吨铜冶炼违规产能，CSPT成员企业达 成"2026年减产10%"共识。更关键的是，铜精矿加工费已跌至低于冶炼成本线，导致国内冶炼 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound (short - term), rebound and sell on rallies (long - term) [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Sell on rallies [1] - Lithium carbonate: Correction, then go long after stabilizing [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as US inflation, consumer confidence, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical situations, and major meetings like the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Core view: Long - term hold. The US inflation and consumer confidence data support interest - rate cuts. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months. Geopolitical trading has decreased, and gold prices remain high. In the long - term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, uncertainties persist, and central banks continue to buy gold, so its long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Core view: Long - term hold. In the short - term, there are issues like delivery squeezes and low inventories. Global large - scale fiscal policies are beneficial for silver in the long - run. However, the high spot premium and soaring volatility of silver futures mean it's not advisable to chase the high in the short - term. In the long - term, there is a supply gap, and with global economic stimulus and loose liquidity, the logic for going long remains [1]. - Basic logic: The core of the recent silver rally is the severe supply - demand imbalance. Its strong industrial attributes (such as in photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles, and computing power) and restricted supply have led to a five - year consecutive supply shortage with a cumulative gap of 23,000 tons, and inventories have dropped to a historically tight level, pushing up prices and leasing costs. The recent short - squeeze is a more direct driver. Trump's tariff policy has caused a large - scale transfer of silver from London inventories to the US, resulting in an extreme shortage of London spot silver, a soaring spot premium, and arbitrage trading, further driving up global silver prices. The US including silver in the critical minerals list has intensified tariff concerns, and similar inventory transfers in Asia have exacerbated regional price differences and the upward trend [2]. - Macro - fundamental: US inflation has been continuously cooling (core PCE in September was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month), and consumer confidence has recovered (Michigan confidence index in December was 53.3, ending a four - month decline), strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. The White House has called for "prudent rate cuts," and the focus of the December meeting has shifted to potential policy combinations. Besides rate cuts, the Fed may announce a monthly bond - buying program of $45 billion (expected to start in 2026) to ease liquidity pressure, which may mark the restart of balance - sheet expansion [3]. Copper - Core view: Long - term hold. A super - macro week is approaching, with the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting imminent. Fundamentally, the cancelled LME copper warehouse receipts have increased sharply, heightening concerns about overseas squeezes. In China, inventories are decreasing during the off - season, and non - US copper inventories may gradually run out. Both LME copper and SHFE copper have continuously reached new highs, with increased volatility at high levels. It's recommended to set a trailing stop for long positions. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [1]. - Industry logic: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing the production capacity of copper smelting, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition. The latest copper concentrate TC is - $42.83 per ton. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month to 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The increase in copper prices has widened the spread between refined and scrap copper to 5,510 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since May 2024. The arbitrage space of the COMEX - LME price difference has attracted trading giants such as Trafigura and Glencore to actively participate in the large - scale transfer of copper inventories. The US has become a "siphon" for global copper, and non - US copper inventories may gradually dry up, triggering a global copper - buying war [5]. Zinc - Core view: Rebound (short - term), rebound and sell on rallies (long - term). A super - macro week is approaching, the dollar index is weakening, and the macro and sector sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the processing fees for zinc concentrates continue to decline, and the downstream has entered the consumption off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation overall. In China, inventories are decreasing during the off - season. In the short - term, zinc prices have risen and then fallen. It's recommended to gradually take profits on long positions. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, so the view of selling on rallies remains [1]. - Industry logic: The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates have continued to decline due to smelters' winter stockpiling, currently at 1,850 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan per ton. Northern mines have reduced production, and there is still room for further decline in zinc concentrate processing fees. In November, China's zinc ingot production decreased by 22,000 tons month - on - month to 595,200 tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 55,375 tons, further alleviating the risk of a soft squeeze. China's social inventory of zinc ingots has slightly decreased to 1.403 million tons on a month - on - month basis. Zinc's short - term supply - demand is weak, and inventories continue to decline during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the impact of northern winter environmental inspections on the smelting end [8]. Aluminum - Core view: Rebound. It's recommended to take short - term profits on SHFE aluminum and then wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventories. The main operating range is [21,500 - 22,500] yuan per ton [1]. - Industry logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has been further strengthened. Industrially, as the dry season approaches in southwestern China, the costs of aluminum enterprises with a high proportion of hydropower are expected to increase. In December, the latest domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared to last week; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas is 128,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last week. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%, and the consumption in the automotive terminal field is fair. For alumina, the shipment of bauxite from Guinea overseas has returned to normal and is expected to continue to increase. Bauxite mines in northern China have gradually resumed production, and the absolute inventory of bauxite remains at a high level. Currently, there are frequent news of maintenance of alumina enterprises in the north, but no large - scale alumina production cuts have been heard. In the short - term, the oversupply pattern in the alumina market continues, and attention should be paid to changes in the overseas bauxite end [12]. Nickel - Core view: Rebound. It's recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel at low prices and then wait and see, paying attention to the changes in downstream stainless - steel inventories. The main operating range of nickel is [117,000 - 119,000] yuan per ton [1]. - Industry logic: For nickel, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has been further strengthened. Industrially, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to lower the nickel production target for 2026, and it is reported that some Indonesian smelters have plans to cut production. In December, the latest LME nickel inventory has climbed to 252,000 tons, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory is about 52,000 tons. With the expectation of reduced refined - nickel production, the inventory - building speed may slow down. For stainless steel, the terminal consumption field has gradually entered the off - season. According to statistics, the total inventory of the two major stainless - steel markets in Wuxi and Foshan has slightly decreased to 940,000 tons in December, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28%. As stainless - steel prices have weakened significantly, the social inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing again, but there is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Currently, the stainless - steel market has entered the year - end consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains sluggish. Close attention should be paid to the impact of downstream terminal consumption on inventory changes [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Correction, then go long after stabilizing. The total inventory has been decreasing for 16 consecutive weeks. Recently, affected by the increase in the arrival of overseas spodumene and the expectation of domestic production resumption, the price will correct. Wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilization [1]. - Industry logic: The total inventory has been declining for 16 consecutive weeks. Upstream inventories have further decreased, downstream has actively reduced inventories to a reasonable range, and there has been obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. As prices have risen rapidly, the production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and there is still room for an increase in the operating rate. Terminal demand remains strong, and the optimistic expectation for energy storage still exists. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate has reached a new high. Overall, lithium carbonate inventories continue to decline, and there is no significant room for price drops. Recently, affected by the increase in the arrival of overseas spodumene and the expectation of domestic production resumption, the price will correct, and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilization [20].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced an impressive 80% increase in the Shenwan first-level industry index this year, leading all sectors in the A-share market, with a notable 5.35% rise in the first week of December [1][6]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Eight thematic ETFs, including the Southern Nonferrous Metals ETF, have attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in investments this year, indicating strong market interest [1][6]. - The copper index has surged over 103%, reflecting a significant value reassessment driven by multiple certainties [6]. - Recent data shows a net inflow of 3.94 million yuan into the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable interest in rare earths, tungsten, and copper [7]. Sector Differentiation - The non-ferrous metals market is witnessing a divergence, with copper being the primary focus due to its essential role in new energy and AI data center construction [7][8]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are benefiting from global central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts, maintaining strong independent performance [7]. - Aluminum is also gaining recognition due to supply-side constraints and demand trends towards lightweight materials [7]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the combination of emerging demands from AI, electricity, and new energy sectors, along with long-term supply constraints, will lead to better performance for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin by 2026 [8][10]. - The anticipated global shortage of refined copper is projected to be 270,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 580,000 tons by 2027, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [10]. Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors remain bullish on non-ferrous metals, with predictions for copper prices to range between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton by 2026 [11]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish market atmosphere, suggesting potential for cross-year trends [11]. - Caution is advised regarding investment timing, as the current high market interest may lead to overvaluation risks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal index has surged by 80% this year, driven by global liquidity expectations, supportive policies, and new demands from AI and renewable energy [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index has increased by 80.45% year-to-date, with the copper index soaring over 103% [3] - In the first week of December alone, the non-ferrous metal index rose by 5.35%, outperforming all other sectors [1] - Eight themed ETFs in the non-ferrous metal sector attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in investments this year, indicating strong market interest [1][3] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Institutional consensus is reflected in the significant net inflow of 18.5 billion yuan into non-ferrous metal ETFs, with the Southern Non-Ferrous Metal ETF alone attracting approximately 7.5 billion yuan [3] - Recent data shows a net inflow of 394 million yuan into the non-ferrous metal sector over the past five days, including rare earths and copper [4] - There are signs of potential overheating in market sentiment, with some short-term speculative funds showing signs of outflow [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply constraints in the copper market are expected to persist, with major copper companies facing challenges such as declining ore grades and rising extraction costs [7] - The demand for metals like copper and aluminum is anticipated to experience explosive growth due to emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers [6][7] - Analysts predict that the global refined copper market will face shortages of 270,000 tons, 460,000 tons, and 580,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the strong performance of metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will continue into 2026, driven by new demand and supply constraints [5][8] - The market is optimistic about the potential for a cross-year rally in non-ferrous metals, supported by favorable fundamentals and a bullish market atmosphere [8][9] - Key drivers for the non-ferrous metal sector remain unchanged, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming year [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold oscillates, and silver adjusts at a high level. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are mainly affected by the silver capital side. In the long - term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [3][5]. - The logical environment is generally favorable for the rise of precious metals this month. The expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The squeeze trading in silver may still be repeated this month [5]. - Looking ahead, the range of spot gold in London this week is expected to be between $4000 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US initial jobless claims last week were 191,000, with an expected 220,000. The four - week average was 214,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, with an expected 1.961 million. The current application level is consistent with historically low lay - offs, which may ease market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US in November was 71,321, a 53.4% decrease from the previous value. Year - on - year, it increased by 23.5% [4]. - The Chicago Fed expects the US unemployment rate in November to remain stable at around 4.4% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, gold oscillated, and silver adjusted at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support at the previously broken level of $53 - $54. The US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims announced on the day conformed to seasonal patterns and had a low impact on the market [3][5]. - This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The relatively dovish candidate Hassett has the highest popularity. The period from nomination to taking office may be the smoothest time for trading on the expectation of loose liquidity and the independence of the Fed [5]. - The spot lease rate of London silver remains at a relatively high level, and the squeeze trading is spreading from London to Asia and the US, which may still be repeated this month [5]. 3.3 Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index shows that the commodity index is 2272.72 (+0.11%), the commodity 20 index is 2593.02 (+0.20%), and the industrial products index is 2228.63 (+0.41%) [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 4, 2025, the precious metals index was 3485.92, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 1.61%, a 1 - month increase of 7.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 57.56% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1371.00 (+0.78%) [46].