1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, while demand increases, supply also increases simultaneously, and the futures price may mainly fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, production increases overall, which is the main factor suppressing the futures price. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and after the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, with the increase in tender volume indicating strong installation demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 with no change, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 with no change. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 [1][2] - Among futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,580 with a 0.33% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,340 with a 0.27% increase; lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,500 with a 0.38% increase; lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,440 with a 0.38% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 is 73,240 with a 0.6% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 843, down 15; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1110, down 15; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1835, down 20; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6080; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7190 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 152,350, up 2000; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,850, up 1500; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 129,850, up 2500 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 210, down 540; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160, down 100; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 100, up 60 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801, down 2024; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,747, up 1255; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,765, down 1128; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 40,290, down 2150; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 42,379, up 670 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 74,486, and the profit is - 2006; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,806, and the profit is - 7315 [3] Technological Breakthrough - A research team led by researcher Huang Xuejie from the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Physics, in collaboration with Huazhong University of Science and Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, developed an anion regulation technology, solving the problem of poor contact between the electrolyte and lithium electrode in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3] Market Demand and Supply - In the fourth quarter, it is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increase in tender volume indicates strong installation demand. The overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the increase in demand leads to a mismatch between supply and demand, supporting the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton with a change of 3,000 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton with a change of 2,500 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 858 yuan with no change; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1,125 yuan with a change of - 15 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1,855 yuan with a change of - 20 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) price is 6,080 yuan with a change of - 70 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) price is 7,190 yuan with a change of - 95 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 150,350 yuan with a change of 1,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,350 yuan with a change of 600 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 127,350 yuan with a change of 700 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 750 yuan with a change of 1,120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan with a change of 100 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 160 yuan with a change of 40 yuan [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 136,825 tons with a change of - 706 tons; the smelter weekly inventory is 33,492 tons; the downstream weekly inventory is 60,893 tons with a change of 1,398 tons; the other weekly inventory is 42,440 tons with a change of - 1,140 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipt is 41,709 tons with a change of 590 tons [2] Production Profit - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,407 yuan, and the profit is - 2,927 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,268 yuan, and the profit is - 7,776 yuan [2] Company News - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25th, most employees are on vacation, and it may resume production in November. The reason is that Ningde Times' Guanchun lithium mine stopped supplying raw materials [2] Market Situation - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and downstream enterprises have inventory - building needs. After the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economy of independent energy storage is emerging, and the installation demand is strong [2]

Summary of Haibo Shichuang's Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the energy storage system integration industry, with Haibo Shichuang being a leading player in this sector. The company is expected to benefit from significant growth in domestic energy storage installations, projected to reach 140-150 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% driven by policy support and market demand growth [2][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Composition**: In the first half of 2025, revenue from energy storage system integration accounted for 99.77% of total revenue, while other business segments are contracting [2][5]. - **Sales Guidance**: The company has consistently revised its shipment guidance upwards, with a target of 30 GWh for 2025, and plans to gradually increase this to 70, 100, and 120 GWh in subsequent years [2][3]. - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q2 2025, actual shipments were 6.57 GWh, generating a profit of 222 million yuan, slightly exceeding expectations [2][5]. - **International Market Focus**: 65% of the company's business is concentrated in Europe, 10% in the US, and the remainder in Australia and emerging Asia-Pacific markets. The higher pricing and profitability in these regions provide strong revenue and profit support [2][3][16]. - **Operational Capacity**: By the end of 2025, the company expects to participate in operational maintenance capacity exceeding 20 GWh, contributing approximately 120 million yuan in revenue and 60 million yuan in net profit [2][18]. Financial Performance - **Profitability Forecast**: For 2025, domestic shipments are expected to be around 25 GWh with a gross margin of 16%, leading to an estimated profit of 900 million yuan. The company anticipates profits of 1.7 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.5-3.2 billion yuan from 2027 to 2028 [4][21]. - **Cost Control**: The company has demonstrated excellent cost control and supply chain management, enhancing its competitive edge and maintaining high gross margins despite market pressures [4][29]. Competitive Advantages - **Market Position**: As a leading enterprise in energy storage system integration, Haibo Shichuang benefits from significant market presence and a strong brand reputation [3][33]. - **Technological Edge**: The company possesses comprehensive self-research capabilities for core components like PCS, EMS, and BMS, which enhances product competitiveness [2][3][32]. - **Supply Agreements**: The company has secured supply agreements with major manufacturers like CATL, ensuring stable supply and pricing for battery cells [18][20]. Industry Trends - **Policy Impact**: The domestic energy storage industry is significantly influenced by policy initiatives, such as the transition from mandatory energy storage for renewables to independent energy storage systems [7][11]. - **Market Growth**: The energy storage installation market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 30% from 2024 to 2027, with optimistic projections for new installations [10][13]. Additional Insights - **Order Book**: The company anticipates approximately 30 GWh in independent energy storage orders for 2025, with a reserve of 30 GWh to meet 2026 delivery targets [22]. - **Operational Experience**: Haibo Shichuang has accumulated significant operational experience with around 40 projects, charging between 15-20 million yuan per GWh, which enhances its hardware development capabilities [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from Haibo Shichuang's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, financial outlook, and competitive advantages within the energy storage industry.

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The price of silicon materials has stabilized at a high level, supporting the differentiated performance of silicon wafers [1][2] - Battery cells are showing a steady upward trend with localized price increases, while module prices remain stable overall [1][2] - Domestic demand release is helping to maintain the resilience of the industry chain despite disturbances in the overseas market [1][2] Group 2: Wind Power - Major offshore wind power projects are being awarded, including a 1GW project by China Power Construction and a 1.2GW project by China Datang [3] - The industry chain is experiencing high prosperity driven by both domestic and international project advancements [3] Group 3: Energy Storage - Domestic policies are promoting growth in the independent energy storage market, with significant demand in Europe and emerging markets [4] - The hydrogen energy sector is developing positively, with reduced financing difficulties and national support for new technology research [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicles - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached 3 billion units from January to August 2025, marking an 18.66% year-on-year increase [6] - The extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo and remaining quotas are influencing the market dynamics [6] Group 5: Robotics and AI - Figure has completed over $1 billion in financing, indicating strong investor interest in AI applications [7] - Upcoming internal meetings at Tesla regarding robotics and autonomous driving may catalyze further developments in the sector [7] Group 6: Electric Grid Equipment - Alibaba plans to increase its capital expenditure beyond the initial 380 billion yuan, indicating a significant investment in infrastructure [5] - The energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold by 2032 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the increase in demand leads to a supply - demand mismatch, which supports the futures price. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles has led to downstream inventory - building demand, and the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference have made the economy of independent energy storage more prominent, with strong installation demand. Meanwhile, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,600, a decrease of 150; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350, a decrease of 150. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 72,680 with a decline of 0.57%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 72,880 with a decline of 0.95%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 72,940 with a decline of 0.98%; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 72,820 with a decline of 1.09%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 72,600 with a decline of 1.04% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 857, an increase of 44. Lithium mica with Li20: 1.5% - 2.0% has a price of 1140; with Li20: 2.0% - 2.5% has a price of 1875; phosphate - lithium - aluminum ore with Li20: 6% - 7% has a price of 6150; with Li20: 7% - 8% has a price of 7285 [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,650, a decrease of 40; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 148,800, an increase of 750; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,350, an increase of 600; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 126,200, an increase of 600 [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720, with a change of 1010; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 200, with a change of 100; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 260, with a change of 60 [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,825, a decrease of 706; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,492, a decrease of 964; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 60,893, an increase of 1398; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,440, a decrease of 1140; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 40,329, an increase of 20 [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,418, and the profit is - 2,888; the cash cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate and the profit are not clearly presented, but the profit is - 8,189 [3]. Company News - Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25th, and most employees are on holiday. It may resume production in November due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant rise in independent energy storage in China, with improved economic viability and a clear increase in demand, alongside sustained high demand for large-scale storage in Europe and emerging markets [1] - The transition from mandatory energy storage to independent energy storage in China is expected to enhance the revenue model for storage projects, with local governments introducing capacity price compensation policies [1] - The report anticipates that the domestic energy storage demand forecast will be revised upwards, with a projected installation of 149 GWh in 2025 and 194 GWh in 2026, driven by strong demand in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [2] Group 2 - The supply of energy storage cells is expected to remain tight until the second half of 2026, with a global demand forecast of 521 GWh in 2025 and 710 GWh in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60% and 36% respectively [2] - The report highlights that the independent energy storage model is replacing the traditional capacity storage model, leading to higher quality requirements for storage batteries and systems, which is likely to concentrate the competitive landscape [2] - The emergence of integrated system providers and the rise of construction and operation models are expected to benefit companies with technological and resource advantages in the energy storage sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - In the short term, factors such as the approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, downstream stocking demand, and the appearance of independent energy storage economy support the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,750 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,500 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 856 yuan, with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,140 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,875 yuan; petalite (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,150 yuan; petalite (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 7,285 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,690 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 148,050 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,750 yuan, an increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,600 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 290 yuan, a decrease of 1,260 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 300 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly) is 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly) is 33,492 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly) is 60,893 tons, an increase of 1,398 tons; the inventory of others (weekly) is 42,440 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily) is 40,309 tons, an increase of 560 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 75,328 yuan, with a profit of - 2,650 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,729 yuan, with a profit of - 8,042 yuan [3] Industry News - On September 24, China announced new contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit, including increasing the proportion of non - fossil energy consumption to over 30% of the total energy consumption, and the total power generation capacity of electricity to reach more than 6 times that of 2020, aiming for 3.6 billion kilowatts [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the independent energy storage sector, highlighting the economic viability and significant demand growth in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - The transition from mandatory energy storage to independent energy storage is underway, with local governments implementing capacity price compensation policies to establish a market-oriented revenue mechanism [2][3]. - The domestic energy storage demand forecast has been revised upward, with expectations of continued strong growth, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [2][3]. - The supply of energy storage cells is expected to remain tight until the second half of 2026, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative business models and integrated system solutions, which are expected to enhance profitability for companies with technological and resource advantages [2][3]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Capacity Price Policies and Independent Storage Models - The shift from mandatory energy storage to independent storage is supported by new policies that provide stable cash flow through capacity price compensation [2][3]. - The report outlines the differences in revenue structures and economic viability between mandatory and independent storage models, with independent storage showing superior profitability potential [11][36]. PART 2: Revised Domestic Energy Storage Demand Forecast - The report projects that domestic energy storage installations will reach 149 GWh in 2025 and 194 GWh in 2026, with a long-term forecast of 340 GWh by 2030 [2][3]. - The demand for energy storage is significantly driven by the development of data centers, which are expected to account for one-third of total energy storage demand by 2030 [2][3]. PART 3: Supply Constraints and High-Quality Development - The report anticipates a continued shortage of energy storage cells until the second half of 2026, with global demand expected to reach 521 GWh in 2025 and 710 GWh in 2026 [2][3]. - The focus on high-quality development in the energy storage industry is expected to benefit leading companies, as well as improve the performance of second-tier players [2][3]. PART 4: Valuation Comparison and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow, and others, while also highlighting the potential of emerging players in the market [2][3]. - The overall sentiment is bullish on the large-scale energy storage sector, driven by strong demand in Europe and emerging markets, as well as favorable policies in the U.S. [2][3].

Core Insights - The recent auction results for renewable energy prices in Shandong Province have raised concerns among investors regarding the profitability of solar and wind projects, with solar prices dropping to 0.225 yuan/kWh and wind prices at 0.319 yuan/kWh, both significantly lower than expected [1][3][4] - The mechanism price is part of a new pricing system aimed at stabilizing revenue for renewable energy projects, but the low auction results indicate a potential shift in investment dynamics within the sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Auction Results and Market Reactions - The auction results revealed a mechanism price of 0.225 yuan/kWh for solar projects, with an 80% mechanism volume ratio, and 0.319 yuan/kWh for wind projects, with a 70% mechanism volume ratio, indicating a significant drop in expected returns [3][4] - Industry reactions to the low prices have been mixed, with some anticipating the price drop due to high competition among bidders, while others express disappointment as they had hoped for prices that would allow for profitability [3][4] - The mechanism price represents a 43% decrease for solar and a 19.2% decrease for wind compared to the benchmark coal price of 0.3949 yuan/kWh, highlighting the impact on new projects' profitability [4] Group 2: Policy Changes and Investment Dynamics - Recent policy changes from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to accelerate the construction of the electricity spot market and promote new energy consumption, indicating a shift in investment models for renewable energy [2][5] - The low mechanism prices signal that the market may not require as many solar investors in the short term, suggesting a strategic shift towards wind energy projects [5] - The competitive landscape is changing, with many investors submitting low bids to secure project approvals, reflecting a challenging environment for maintaining profitability in solar energy investments [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - The current low mechanism prices may not become the norm, as the tight timeline for project approvals and the potential for even lower market prices could lead to greater losses for investors [5][6] - Industry experts suggest that to improve the situation, policies may need to allow for more flexible timelines and encourage companies to withdraw from unprofitable projects, which could fundamentally alter supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - The focus for future market development is expected to shift towards high-quality projects, with cost control becoming increasingly important for profitability in regions with less competitive solar markets [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant increase in the scale of energy storage and EPC procurement, reaching 79.88 GW and 271.79 GWh from January to August, representing a year-on-year growth of 191% in GWh terms [1][2]. Domestic Demand - Policy support is expected to sustain the demand for independent energy storage, with a notable increase in project scale and duration. The average project size has grown to 2 GWh, and the storage duration has increased from 1-2 hours to 3-4 hours [2]. - In August alone, the energy storage and EPC scale reached 25.8 GW and 69.4 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 520% and a month-on-month increase of 169% [2]. Industry Chain Impact - The reliability requirements for energy storage are increasing, and the diversification of revenue streams may lead to a rise in energy storage system prices, benefiting related integrators. The price of 4-hour energy storage systems in August was 0.431 yuan/Wh, up 3% month-on-month [3]. - The anticipated increase in system prices in Q4 2023 may allow manufacturers with sufficient battery inventory to benefit from inventory premiums, leading to profit growth [3]. Recommended Stocks - CICC recommends several stocks in the energy storage sector, including: - Upwind Electric (300827.SZ) - Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH) - YN Technology (688348.SH) - Deyang Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) [4].