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电气设备行业点评:光伏反内卷如何演绎?
Minmetals Securities· 2025-07-10 08:45
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The necessity for supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is highlighted due to ongoing profitability pressures, with over 150 companies expected to face bankruptcy or liquidation by mid-2025 [2] - The industry has experienced significant price declines since Q4 2023, leading to widespread losses among major companies, with a notable shift towards a cash-negative state by Q1 2025 [2][11] - The demand for photovoltaic products is expected to rebound in the medium to long term as energy storage economics improve, particularly after the implementation of the "136 Document" [3][20] Summary by Sections Event Description - Major polysilicon manufacturers raised prices to 37 CNY/kg as of July 7, 2025, with full costs estimated above 39-40 CNY/kg [1][11] Event Commentary - The photovoltaic sector has seen leading companies enter a phase of substantial losses since Q4 2023, necessitating coordinated supply-side reforms among key industry players [2] - Historical supply-side reforms in related industries have led to significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating potential for recovery in the photovoltaic sector [2][14] Industry Performance - In May 2025, photovoltaic grid connections reached 9.3 GW, a 388% year-on-year increase, but demand is expected to face short-term pressure due to earlier overcapacity [3][20] - The future of photovoltaic demand is contingent on achieving price parity in energy storage solutions, which is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities [3][20]
把握银行股下半场,关注三方面机会;中高端特钢需求有望迎来较快增长
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-24 01:17
|2025年6月24日星期二| NO.2中信建投:我国中高端特钢需求有望迎来较快增长 中信建投(601066)表示,特钢属政策大力支持行业,我国中高端特钢新材料内有"进口替代",外 有"全球份额提升",目前我国中高端特钢比例约4%左右,我国中高端制造业快速发展,中高端特钢需 求有望迎来较快增长,中高端特钢企业估值有望提高,从发达国家的特钢公司估值来看,多处于15-25 倍的水平,日本、欧美等特钢快速发展阶段已经过去,而我国中高端特钢还处于成长期,应用的新能 源、造船、航空航天行业处在蓬勃发展期,应当享有一定的估值溢价。 NO.3华泰证券:逆变器长期需求确定性较强,光储平价有望进一步打开需求天花板 华泰证券指出,2025年5月我国逆变器出口额59.7亿元,环比+2.7%;出口数量589.9万台,环比 +30.3%,出口至欧洲金额受发货节奏影响环比略减,东南亚地区需求持续强劲。长期来看,各地区停 电+电价上涨+风光装机高增仍为需求的核心驱动,华泰证券认为逆变器长期需求确定性较强,光储平 价有望进一步打开需求天花板,板块龙头业绩存在较强支撑。 NO.1银河证券:把握银行股下半场,推荐关注三方面机会 中国银河(601 ...