市公司 电力设备 2026 年 03 月 02 日 中创新航 曾子栋 A0230525070007 zengzd@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com | 市场数据: | 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币) | 25.96 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8859.49 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 37.20/13.32 | | H 股市值 (亿港币) | 460.09 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 761.50 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8848 | -年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 131% 联系人 25 年利润预告超预期，景气周期驱动盈利向上 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) 资料来源: Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 曾子栋 A0230525070007 zengzd@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

上 市 公 司 电力设备 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 25.96 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8859.49 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 37.20/13.32 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 460.09 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 761.50 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8848 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -19% 31% 81% 131% HSCEI 中创新航 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 03 月 02 日 中创新航 (03931) ——25 年利润预告超预期，景气周期驱动盈利向上 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 曾子栋 A0230525070007 zengzd@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 曾子栋 A0230525070007 zengzd@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | 2023 | | 2024 ...

证券研究报告 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年3月2日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 目录 | Part1 复盘：光储平价+缺电/电价上涨+政策补贴刺激需求 | | --- | | Part2 澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发 | | Part3 欧洲：乌/英/荷为重要增量市场，德国有望复苏 | | Part4 美国：TPO对冲ITC补贴取消，中长期VPP辅助消纳 | | Part5 产业：户储龙头竞争好于预期，出货进入新增长期 | | Part6 投资建议和风险提示 | 2 摘要： 澳洲欧洲引领新增长，多维布局龙头重拾成长 ——海外户储专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn ◆ 回顾全球户储各爆发区域，爆发驱动因素在于：1）光储价格下行，全球实现光储平价；2）缺电或电价上涨推动刚需； 3）补贴等政策催化。 ◆ 澳/英/乌/荷多国政策驱动户储爆发，行业持续增长可期：1）澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发。澳洲 户光渗透率/存量户光配储率分别为39%/10%，澳洲政府25H1推出23亿澳元 ...

Core Insights - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights significant growth in energy storage installations in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on new energy storage technologies and upcoming projects in various regions [1][2]. Demand Side - Domestic market: In 2025, new energy storage installations are expected to reach 58.6 GW/175.3 GWh, with a December 2025 tender scale of 22.5 GW/55.8 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 75% and a month-on-month increase of 88% [2]. - Indian market: By 2025, energy storage system installations are projected at 0.5 GWh, with tenders for standalone storage at 45 GWh and solar storage projects at 15.2 GWh. The Indian government mandates the integration of 4 GW/17 GWh of electrochemical storage projects by the 2025-26 fiscal year without delays [1][2]. High ROE Market - Germany: By December 2025, energy storage installations are expected to be 394 MWh, a decrease of 20.4% year-on-year. The breakdown includes 210 MWh for household storage, down 26.83% year-on-year, and 159 MWh for large-scale storage [3]. - Italy: In Q2 2025, energy storage installations reached 817 MW/2728 MWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48% and 75% respectively [3]. - The UK: As of Q3 2025, there are 121.76 GW of energy storage projects awaiting construction, an increase of 21.83 GW from Q2 [3]. Leading Indicators - Europe: The average wholesale electricity price in nine core European countries is projected to be €111.44/MWh by December 2025, a 7% increase month-on-month [4]. - Australia: In Q3 2025, the net income from energy storage in the national electricity market reached $111.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 47% [4]. - The US: The number of pending projects has increased by 17% year-on-year, while the prices for utility-scale storage systems have decreased by 11% [4]. Supply Side - In December 2025, the average tender price for domestic energy storage systems is expected to be 0.669/0.455 yuan/Wh for 2/4-hour systems, with a month-on-month change of +12%/-3% [6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, global energy storage cell shipments reached 410.45 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%, with total energy storage system shipments at 286.35 GWh [6].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing widespread losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. both forecasting significant net losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected loss of 68 to 74 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring items [2][5]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of approximately 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - Aiko Solar predicts a net loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, citing structural overcapacity and ongoing price pressures [7]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment phase, with supply-demand mismatches and intense price competition leading to sustained low operating rates [5][8]. - Rising costs of raw materials, such as silver and silicon, have further pressured profit margins, contributing to the overall losses in the sector [5][6]. - The industry is expected to undergo a reshaping process in 2026 as "anti-involution" measures take effect, potentially restoring supply-demand balance and improving pricing [1][10]. Group 3: Price Trends - Recent data indicates an increase in photovoltaic component prices, with TOPCon and BC components seeing price adjustments due to changes in export tax policies and rising silver prices [1][10]. - The average transaction price for distributed photovoltaic components has reached between 0.67 yuan/watt and 0.8 yuan/watt, with an average of 0.72 yuan/watt [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that policy adjustments may accelerate industry consolidation and capacity elimination, with leading Chinese battery companies likely to enhance their global competitiveness in the long term [11].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate supply-demand restructuring driven by the "anti-involution" trend, leading to gradual profit recovery by 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply-Demand Restructuring - The "anti-involution" spirit is deeply penetrating the photovoltaic industry, with main chain prices recovering from the top down, and auxiliary material leading companies showing significant profit recovery by Q3 2025 [1] - The rapid development of energy storage, alongside the implementation of grid parity for solar storage in key markets like China, the US, and Europe, is expected to alleviate the impact of increased photovoltaic installations on the grid [1] - The long-term demand outlook is optimistic due to rising computing power needs and breakthroughs in core photovoltaic technologies for space stations, which will open new application scenarios [1] Group 2: Technology Iteration and Profit Recovery - The penetration rate of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to rise quickly, with leading companies likely to recover profits faster than the industry average due to rapid cost reduction in component production [2] - The introduction of low-silver solutions by JinkoSolar and silver-free technologies by LONGi Green Energy is highlighted as key developments in this technology iteration [2] Group 3: Auxiliary Material Companies - Auxiliary material companies are expected to accelerate profit recovery through diversified business layouts, as the pressure on the photovoltaic main chain has been ongoing for over three years [3] - Leading companies in auxiliary materials are preparing for a second growth phase, with non-photovoltaic business proportions expected to increase, contributing to revenue and profit reversals [3] Group 4: Beneficiary Analysis - Companies leading in low-silver and silver-free technology iterations, such as LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Aiko Solar, and Tongwei Co., are expected to benefit from cost advantages [4] - Companies actively integrating energy storage with photovoltaic operations, like Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar, are likely to see profit recovery [4] - Leading companies in supporting facilities, such as DKE Holdings, Juhua Materials, and Foster, are expected to continue profit recovery through new technology breakthroughs and business expansions [4]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is reshaping supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, with price recovery expected as the market stabilizes. The introduction of energy storage at parity in key markets is accelerating, alleviating pressure on the grid from rapid increases in photovoltaic installations. The long-term demand outlook is optimistic due to rising computing power needs and breakthroughs in photovoltaic technology for space applications [2][12][14]. Group 2 - The penetration of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to increase rapidly, with leading companies likely to recover profitability faster than the industry average. The rise in silver prices is driving the adoption of these technologies, which are crucial for cost reduction [3][38][43]. Group 3 - The auxiliary material sector, under pressure for over three years, is expected to see a recovery in profitability as companies diversify their business models. Leading firms are preparing for a second growth phase, which will enhance their revenue streams [4][63]. Group 4 - Beneficiary analysis indicates that companies leading in low-silver and silver-free technology, such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, are well-positioned to benefit from cost advantages. Companies actively investing in energy storage, like Trina Solar and JA Solar, are also expected to see early recovery in profitability [5][73]. Group 5 - Global demand for photovoltaic installations is projected to grow, with an estimated 600 GW and 610 GW of new installations in 2025 and 2026, respectively. However, growth rates may slow due to market saturation in core regions like China and Europe [8][14]. Group 6 - The supply side is experiencing overcapacity, with significant production increases expected in silicon materials and components. The "anti-involution" movement is leading to reduced capital expenditures, which may help manage supply effectively [12][30]. Group 7 - The photovoltaic industry is witnessing a shift towards new technologies and applications, such as space photovoltaics and perovskite solar cells, which are expected to expand market opportunities significantly [49][54].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher but showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) experiencing a decline of 0.87% in early trading [1] - Key stocks in the new energy sector included Maiwei Co., which rose by 5.39%, and Robot Co., which increased by 3.78% [1] - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) recorded a trading volume of 31.46 million yuan, leading in scale among similar funds [1] Group 2 - Pacific Securities forecasts that energy storage and lithium batteries are expected to continue exceeding expectations, with price increases and AI+ providing flexibility [1] - Global lithium battery production reached 236.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, while cumulative production from January to November was 2058.44 GWh, up 48.59% [1] - Global energy storage battery production was 66.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.4%, with a cumulative total of 535.98 GWh from January to November, marking a 64.14% increase [1] Group 3 - The solid-state battery sector is anticipated to be a highlight in 2026, with sulfide electrolyte production expected to ramp up to "hundred-ton level" [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued a notice to facilitate the signing and performance of long-term electricity contracts for 2026, allowing market participants to negotiate "market time-of-use electricity prices" [2] - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various segments of the new energy and electric vehicle industries, including batteries and photovoltaics [2]

Core Insights - The narrative around technology investment is shifting towards energy, with energy storage emerging as a key focus area due to its ability to address power supply bottlenecks [1] - The demand for electricity is surging, driven by the rapid growth of data centers fueled by AI, making electricity a new battleground in the AI race [1][2] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a revival, supported by emerging demands from AI and a favorable market environment, leading to a new growth cycle [2] Energy Supply and Demand - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that the biggest issue is not chip supply but electricity shortages, indicating a critical need for energy solutions [1] - The aging power grid in Western countries and the lengthy construction cycles for power supply infrastructure are challenges that energy storage solutions can address [1] - The "photovoltaic + energy storage" systems are seen as the best solution to meet the increasing energy demands of data centers [1] Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The energy storage sector is gaining traction as funds shift focus from technology to renewable energy, with significant capital inflow expected [2] - The China Securities Energy Storage Industry Index has seen a nearly 70% increase since early April, reflecting strong market interest [3] - The growth potential for large-scale energy storage is viewed as relatively certain, with capital markets responding positively [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Investment value in the energy storage supply chain is determined by the strength of supply constraints, with the most constrained segments offering the best investment opportunities [5] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which is expected to continue as demand for energy storage and batteries grows [5][6] - The concentration of the lithium industry has increased, with leading companies maintaining a competitive edge and a stable expansion of production capacity to meet future demand [6] Future Outlook - The future growth of the energy storage sector is anticipated to be robust, with expectations of a significant increase in demand for lithium carbonate and energy storage solutions [6] - The potential for lithium carbonate prices to rise significantly if demand outpaces supply growth is a key consideration for investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of solar energy and storage (光储融合) is expected to achieve price parity in the next 5-10 years, driven by the dual carbon goals and advancements in technology and cost reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The global solar photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is projected to increase by 451.9 GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.2%, reaching a total of 1865 GW [1]. - Currently, 80% of global solar PV components are produced in China, highlighting the country's dominant position in the market despite facing external challenges [1]. - The rapid growth of renewable energy installations has led to increased supply-demand mismatches, resulting in frequent occurrences of negative electricity prices, which are seen as a necessary phase in the development of the renewable energy sector [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The challenges faced by the energy grid include increased difficulty in stable operation, supply-demand mismatches, and pressure on energy absorption, necessitating the construction of new energy infrastructure [2]. - The construction of a new power system is urgent, requiring integrated coordination across energy sources, grids, loads, and storage, as well as the adoption of digital and intelligent technologies [2]. - The company aims to build an integrated system of source, grid, load, and storage, focusing on reducing electricity costs and increasing the proportion of green electricity [3]. Group 3: Company Initiatives - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is developing a project in Inner Mongolia with a total installed capacity of 1 million kW, including 750,000 kW of wind power and 250,000 kW of solar power, along with 68,000 kW of storage capacity [3]. - This project is expected to generate 2.7 billion kWh of green electricity annually, creating a value of 500 million yuan, serving as a replicable model for large-scale solar applications [3]. - The company emphasizes the importance of consensus within the industry to ensure efficient and safe progress towards common goals, likening it to traffic rules that facilitate orderly movement [3].