下半年以来，科技和新能源板块联袂上涨，"用AI发电"渐成市场主流。展望明年，产业趋势能否持续？ 机构如何进一步引导新的叙事方向？对此，上海证券报记者通过多方采访，试图解答以上疑问。 "AI的尽头是电力" "我们目前面临的最大问题并非芯片供应不足，而是电力供应短缺。如果无法解决，大量的算力芯片就 会积压在库房里而无法使用。"微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉近日在一期播客节目中表达了他的担忧。 ◎记者 陈玥 聂林浩 科技投资的叙事正在发生新变化。全球AI竞赛的下一站已转向电力，而储能作为一度沉寂的赛道，因 其解决电力瓶颈的核心能力与"困境反转"逻辑，一跃成为市场的新风口。 "明年增长20%还是80%？这其中有巨大的博弈空间。"张亮认为机构对未来储能的增速预期仍有些分 歧。但从基本面来看，在此前新能源行业整体处于底部的情况下，储能尤其是大型储能的增长空间相对 确定，并且资本市场已给予了积极响应。Choice数据显示，中证储能产业指数自今年4月初以来至近期 高点，区间涨幅已经接近70%。 短期大涨后估值透支了吗？王勇对此不以为然。"在所有新能源资产中，储能的成长性最为突出。作为 新能源行业的后周期资产，其增速理应超越新能 ...

电价是消纳压力的直接体现，特别是近两年新能源装机增速带来供需错配，常规电价波动加剧，负电价 多地频发。陈星宇认为："负电价频发是新能源高速发展的'必经阶段'，它像电网的'信号灯'，既反映了 消纳压力，也在倒逼储能、跨区输电等配套设施加速建设。随着新型电力系统完善，未来负电价将 从'常态频发'转向'偶尔出现'，成为电力市场高效运转的正常信号。" 陈星宇还指出，当下"源、网、荷、储"各环节割裂导致匹配失灵，新型电力系统建设已迫在眉睫，这需 要统筹优化跨区域能源配置、源网荷储一体化协同以及通过数字化、智能化赋能。 陈星宇表示，新能源扩容已是必然趋势，光储协同、绿电直连、虚拟电厂、AI调度等是破局关键。光 伏的竞争力，需要储能的融合才能充分释放，未来5—10年可能在全国范围内都能够实现光储平价。 据陈星宇介绍，通威股份以构建源网荷储一体化体系及虚拟电厂运营平台为战略方向，以"降低用电成 本、增加绿电比例、拓展光伏应用、探索增值服务、促进商业闭环"为核心价值，立足于四大核心业务 （基地电源开发、储能系统开发建设、电力市场化交易和碳资产开发与交易服务），致力于在新型电力 系统框架下，成为企业信赖的综合能源 "管家"，充分 ...

五矿证券近日发布25Q3光伏业绩总结：反内卷以来，硅料价格从3.4万元/吨反弹至5.1万元/吨，硅片、 电池价格也开始传导，组件端因电站接受度差，价格没有明显变化。25Q3是光伏主产业链亏损的第七 个季度，反内卷进程依然在推进，完成后产业链价格有望回归合理价格，带来行业估值修复。 以下为研究报告摘要： 25Q3光伏主产业链盈利有所好转，辅产业链环比持平 主产业链：随主产业链价格修复，25Q3主产业链整体有所减亏，毛利率和净利率环比提升。 辅产业链：辅产业链收入利润随规模变动，盈利性环比持平。 25Q3光伏资本开支依然低迷，资产负债率处于高位 资本开支上，25Q3行业资本开支依然处于低水平，整体亏损下企业扩产意愿依然不强。 资产负债率上，25Q3行业数据基本不变，结构上看，电池环节资产负债率略有好转。 整体来看，盈利亏损且依然没有明显改善的情况下，企业依然以生存为第一目标，部分环节资产负债率 依然需要降低到合适水平。 25Q3光伏主产业链短期净现金水平依然恶化 短期净现金流：辅产业链持稳，主产业链依然环比下滑。 库存：目前行业库存有所增加，多晶硅库存依然处于高位。 需求：国内光伏装机进入淡季，中长期全球光伏装机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy industry is transitioning from traditional solar power pricing to a new model that includes energy storage, referred to as "solar plus storage parity," which is becoming competitive with local coal-fired electricity prices [1] Group 1 - The past concept of solar parity was based on solar power being cheaper than coal-fired electricity [1] - Currently, solar plus storage systems are already competitive with local coal electricity prices in many regions [1] - In the next 5 to 10 years, it is anticipated that solar plus storage parity will be achievable in almost all areas across the country [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy has officially entered the energy storage sector by acquiring a significant stake in Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd, marking a strategic extension from solar to storage [1][2]. Company Summary - Longi Green Energy plans to acquire approximately 61.9998% of the voting rights in Suzhou Jingkong Energy through equity purchase, capital increase, and voting rights delegation [1]. - Suzhou Jingkong Energy, established in September 2015, specializes in lithium-ion battery energy storage systems and has developed comprehensive energy management solutions [1]. - The company recently signed a strategic cooperation agreement with ClubSolar to deploy a 2GWh residential energy storage system in the Australian market, indicating its commitment to global market diversification [1]. Industry Summary - The energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth due to the global transition towards clean and low-carbon energy structures, with increasing demand driven by the need for renewable energy integration [2]. - The integration of energy storage with photovoltaic systems is crucial for reducing the curtailment rate of solar energy and expanding market opportunities [3]. - The shift from mandatory energy storage to market-driven approaches has enhanced the market's regulatory function, benefiting solar power plants in their energy storage choices [3]. - The cost of lithium battery energy storage is projected to drop significantly by 2025, with costs reaching between 0.25 to 0.35 yuan per watt, making energy storage competitive with traditional power sources [3]. - The future of the energy storage industry is moving towards platform-based solutions, with energy storage becoming a primary power source rather than an auxiliary one [4].

Group 1 - The company is focusing on the development of energy storage solutions, including household storage, commercial and industrial storage, and large-scale storage [2] - The company has already made some shipments of household storage solutions to the European market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy and technology stocks experienced a general decline this week, with various indices reflecting significant drops in value, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards these sectors [1][3]. Index Performance - The China Securities New Energy Index fell by 4.1% - The National Securities New Energy Battery Index decreased by 6.2% - The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index dropped by 3.1% - The China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index declined by 3.8% [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the China Securities New Energy Index is 56.0 times, while the National Securities New Energy Battery Index stands at 33.1 times - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index is 2.5 times, and the rolling market-to-book ratio for the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index is 25.7 times [3][6]. Investment Opportunities - The National Securities New Energy Battery Index focuses on the energy storage sector, comprising 50 companies involved in battery manufacturing and related technologies, which are expected to benefit from future energy development opportunities [4]. - The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index represents a strong future energy source, consisting of 50 representative companies across the photovoltaic supply chain [4]. - The China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index includes 100 stocks from both clean energy and high-carbon reduction potential sectors, indicating a diverse investment landscape [4]. ETF Tracking - There are currently five ETFs tracking the China Securities New Energy Index, two for the National Securities New Energy Battery Index, ten for the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, and eight for the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) dropping by 2.50%. However, the underlying stock, Galaxy Magnetic Materials, surged over 16%, indicating mixed performance within the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) has attracted significant capital, raising 180 million yuan in the last five trading days, 381 million yuan in the last ten days, and 989 million yuan in the last twenty days [1]. - The ETF is the first in the market to track the ChiNext New Energy Index and is the only one with an off-market connection, showcasing its unique position [2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - A major breakthrough in solid-state lithium battery technology has been achieved by the research team at the Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, addressing key challenges such as interface impedance and ion transport efficiency [1]. - CITIC Securities continues to recommend the energy storage sector, highlighting the favorable fundamentals of the lithium battery industry and the current catalytic moment for growth [1]. Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) has the highest elasticity among similar products, with a maximum increase of 20%, and the lowest fee rate, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2]. - As of October 10, 2025, the ETF's scale reached 1.116 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 93.5393 million yuan over the past month [2]. - The ETF has a storage content of 51% and a solid-state battery content of 30.48%, aligning with current market trends [2].

Group 1 - The storage sector is experiencing strong growth, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) rising by 3.92%, and key stocks like Hunan YN Energy increasing over 17% [1] - Domestic demand for energy storage cells is robust, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity and some orders extending into early next year [1] - The goal set by the "Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage" aims for a storage installation capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, potentially driving new project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various sectors including batteries and photovoltaics [2] - This ETF has the highest elasticity with a potential increase of up to 20%, and the lowest fee rate, with a combined management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2] - As of September 26, 2025, the ETF's scale reached 1.009 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 65.75 million yuan over the past month, and it has a storage component of 51% and a solid-state battery component of 23.6% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The export value of inverters from China is projected to reach 6.51 billion yuan in July 2025, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease, while the export quantity is expected to be 4.6 million units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.3% [1] Group 1 - Demand remains high during the peak season, with significant increases in demand from European industrial storage and Australian household storage [1] - Long-term demand drivers include power outages, rising electricity prices, and high growth in wind and solar installations across various regions [1] - The parity of solar storage is expected to further unlock the demand ceiling [1]