太平洋证券发布研报称，2026年光伏行业有望在"反内卷"驱动下加速供需重塑，推动盈利逐步修复。光 储平价在核心市场全面落地，储能发展支撑行业稳健增长。同时，低银/无银技术迭代、龙头企业多元 化布局与新应用场景拓展，将共同引领行业进入新一轮发展周期。 太平洋证券主要观点如下： "反内卷"推动供需重塑，光储平价在核心市场加速展开，新场景打开远期想象空间 从2025年年中起，"反内卷"精神持续深入光伏行业，主链报价自上而下回暖，辅材龙头企业2025年三季 度盈利修复明显。同时，随着光储平价在中国、美国、欧洲等国家和区域加速展开，储能发展迅速，有 效缓解光伏新增装机快速提升对电网带来的冲击。展望2026年，"反内卷"持续推进，光储平价持续展 开，光伏行业供需有望进一步重塑，报价与盈利有望随着供需重塑震荡修复。展望远期需求，随着算力 需求提升以及部署场景开拓、空间站光伏核心技术突破等，新应用场景打开远期需求空间。 技术迭代是历次新周期的核心主线，随着白银价格快速上涨，各家低银、无银技术储备加速导入量产， 降本节奏较快的组件龙头盈利修复有望好于行业盈利修复，重视TOPCon龙头晶科能源低银方案导入、 BC龙头隆基绿能（6 ...

电力设备及新能源行业 证券研究报告 |行业策略研究报告 2026/1/6 光伏行业2026年行业策略—— 反内卷加速供需重塑，重视新技术、新场景 首席分析师: 刘强 分析师登记编号: S1190522080001 证券分析师: 钟欣材 分析师登记编号： S1190524110004 P2 报告摘要 1、"反内卷"推动供需重塑，光储平价在核心市场加速展开，新场景打开远期想象空间 从2025年年中起，"反内卷"精神持续深入光伏行业，主链报价自上而下回暖，辅材龙头企业2025年三季度盈利修复明显。同 时，随着光储平价在中国、美国、欧洲等国家和区域加速展开，储能发展迅速，有效缓解光伏新增装机快速提升对电网带来的冲 击。展望2026年，"反内卷"持续推进，光储平价持续展开，光伏行业供需有望进一步重塑，报价与盈利有望随着供需重塑震荡 修复。展望远期需求，随着算力需求提升以及部署场景开拓、空间站光伏核心技术突破等，新应用场景打开远期需求空间。 2、低银无银渗透率有望快速提升，龙头企业盈利有望率先走出低谷 技术迭代是历次新周期的核心主线，随着白银价格快速上涨，各家低银、无银技术储备加速导入量产，降本节奏较快的组件龙头 盈利修 ...

2025年12月31日，A股三大指数集体高开后涨跌互现，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）早盘震荡走 弱，跌幅为0.87%。盘面上，迈为股份上涨5.39%，罗博特科上涨3.78%，阿尔特上涨2.63%，中来股 份、帝尔激光等涨超2%；截至发文，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）成交额达3146万元，规模居同 类基金首位。 展望后市，太平洋证券指出储能、锂电有望持续超预期，涨价、AI+提供弹性，应重视中上游定价权增 强的环节，具体产业链分析： （文章来源：每日经济新闻） （2）固态电池仍是2026年亮点：硫化物电解质产能将向"百吨级"爬坡，半固态电池在多领域批量商 用，全固态电池聚焦上车验证，行业将推进量产工艺、成本控制与标准建立。 （3）光储平价有望引领储能加快先行建设：国家发改委、能源局下发《关于做好2026年电力中长期合 同签约履约工作的通知》，明确直接参与市场交易的电力用户原则上不再执行政府制定的分时电价；改 革核心是保留分时电价机制但将定价权交予发用电双方，通过中长期合同协商确定"市场分时电价"；光 储投资商有望从"固定收益"转向"市场化运营"。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场 ...

Core Insights - The narrative around technology investment is shifting towards energy, with energy storage emerging as a key focus area due to its ability to address power supply bottlenecks [1] - The demand for electricity is surging, driven by the rapid growth of data centers fueled by AI, making electricity a new battleground in the AI race [1][2] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a revival, supported by emerging demands from AI and a favorable market environment, leading to a new growth cycle [2] Energy Supply and Demand - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that the biggest issue is not chip supply but electricity shortages, indicating a critical need for energy solutions [1] - The aging power grid in Western countries and the lengthy construction cycles for power supply infrastructure are challenges that energy storage solutions can address [1] - The "photovoltaic + energy storage" systems are seen as the best solution to meet the increasing energy demands of data centers [1] Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The energy storage sector is gaining traction as funds shift focus from technology to renewable energy, with significant capital inflow expected [2] - The China Securities Energy Storage Industry Index has seen a nearly 70% increase since early April, reflecting strong market interest [3] - The growth potential for large-scale energy storage is viewed as relatively certain, with capital markets responding positively [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Investment value in the energy storage supply chain is determined by the strength of supply constraints, with the most constrained segments offering the best investment opportunities [5] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which is expected to continue as demand for energy storage and batteries grows [5][6] - The concentration of the lithium industry has increased, with leading companies maintaining a competitive edge and a stable expansion of production capacity to meet future demand [6] Future Outlook - The future growth of the energy storage sector is anticipated to be robust, with expectations of a significant increase in demand for lithium carbonate and energy storage solutions [6] - The potential for lithium carbonate prices to rise significantly if demand outpaces supply growth is a key consideration for investors [6]

电价是消纳压力的直接体现，特别是近两年新能源装机增速带来供需错配，常规电价波动加剧，负电价 多地频发。陈星宇认为："负电价频发是新能源高速发展的'必经阶段'，它像电网的'信号灯'，既反映了 消纳压力，也在倒逼储能、跨区输电等配套设施加速建设。随着新型电力系统完善，未来负电价将 从'常态频发'转向'偶尔出现'，成为电力市场高效运转的正常信号。" 陈星宇还指出，当下"源、网、荷、储"各环节割裂导致匹配失灵，新型电力系统建设已迫在眉睫，这需 要统筹优化跨区域能源配置、源网荷储一体化协同以及通过数字化、智能化赋能。 陈星宇表示，新能源扩容已是必然趋势，光储协同、绿电直连、虚拟电厂、AI调度等是破局关键。光 伏的竞争力，需要储能的融合才能充分释放，未来5—10年可能在全国范围内都能够实现光储平价。 据陈星宇介绍，通威股份以构建源网荷储一体化体系及虚拟电厂运营平台为战略方向，以"降低用电成 本、增加绿电比例、拓展光伏应用、探索增值服务、促进商业闭环"为核心价值，立足于四大核心业务 （基地电源开发、储能系统开发建设、电力市场化交易和碳资产开发与交易服务），致力于在新型电力 系统框架下，成为企业信赖的综合能源 "管家"，充分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability, with the main industry chain showing signs of reduced losses and improved margins, while the auxiliary industry chain remains stable [2][9]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the price of silicon materials rebounded from 34,000 yuan/ton to 51,000 yuan/ton, leading to a transmission of price increases in silicon wafers and batteries, although component prices remained stable due to poor acceptance in power stations [8]. - Q3 2025 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of losses for the main photovoltaic industry chain, but the ongoing anti-involution process is expected to restore prices to reasonable levels, potentially leading to industry valuation recovery [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The overall profitability of the main industry chain improved in Q3 2025, with both gross and net profit margins showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - Capital expenditure in the photovoltaic sector remains low, with companies showing limited willingness to expand production amid ongoing losses [3]. - The asset-liability ratio for the industry remains high, with slight improvements noted in the battery segment, indicating a focus on survival rather than growth [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Industry inventory levels have increased, with polysilicon inventory remaining high [6]. - Domestic photovoltaic installations are entering a low season, with medium to long-term global installation growth expected to be between 5% and 10% [7]. - The photovoltaic sector is primarily positioned to meet new electricity demand, with limited short-term capacity to replace traditional energy sources [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures are expected to improve industry supply and demand dynamics, with companies in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery components likely to benefit from valuation recovery [10]. - New technologies, such as copper replacing silver in materials and perovskite solar cells, present opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy industry is transitioning from traditional solar power pricing to a new model that includes energy storage, referred to as "solar plus storage parity," which is becoming competitive with local coal-fired electricity prices [1] Group 1 - The past concept of solar parity was based on solar power being cheaper than coal-fired electricity [1] - Currently, solar plus storage systems are already competitive with local coal electricity prices in many regions [1] - In the next 5 to 10 years, it is anticipated that solar plus storage parity will be achievable in almost all areas across the country [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy has officially entered the energy storage sector by acquiring a significant stake in Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd, marking a strategic extension from solar to storage [1][2]. Company Summary - Longi Green Energy plans to acquire approximately 61.9998% of the voting rights in Suzhou Jingkong Energy through equity purchase, capital increase, and voting rights delegation [1]. - Suzhou Jingkong Energy, established in September 2015, specializes in lithium-ion battery energy storage systems and has developed comprehensive energy management solutions [1]. - The company recently signed a strategic cooperation agreement with ClubSolar to deploy a 2GWh residential energy storage system in the Australian market, indicating its commitment to global market diversification [1]. Industry Summary - The energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth due to the global transition towards clean and low-carbon energy structures, with increasing demand driven by the need for renewable energy integration [2]. - The integration of energy storage with photovoltaic systems is crucial for reducing the curtailment rate of solar energy and expanding market opportunities [3]. - The shift from mandatory energy storage to market-driven approaches has enhanced the market's regulatory function, benefiting solar power plants in their energy storage choices [3]. - The cost of lithium battery energy storage is projected to drop significantly by 2025, with costs reaching between 0.25 to 0.35 yuan per watt, making energy storage competitive with traditional power sources [3]. - The future of the energy storage industry is moving towards platform-based solutions, with energy storage becoming a primary power source rather than an auxiliary one [4].

Group 1 - The company is focusing on the development of energy storage solutions, including household storage, commercial and industrial storage, and large-scale storage [2] - The company has already made some shipments of household storage solutions to the European market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy and technology stocks experienced a general decline this week, with various indices reflecting significant drops in value, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards these sectors [1][3]. Index Performance - The China Securities New Energy Index fell by 4.1% - The National Securities New Energy Battery Index decreased by 6.2% - The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index dropped by 3.1% - The China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index declined by 3.8% [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the China Securities New Energy Index is 56.0 times, while the National Securities New Energy Battery Index stands at 33.1 times - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index is 2.5 times, and the rolling market-to-book ratio for the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index is 25.7 times [3][6]. Investment Opportunities - The National Securities New Energy Battery Index focuses on the energy storage sector, comprising 50 companies involved in battery manufacturing and related technologies, which are expected to benefit from future energy development opportunities [4]. - The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index represents a strong future energy source, consisting of 50 representative companies across the photovoltaic supply chain [4]. - The China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index includes 100 stocks from both clean energy and high-carbon reduction potential sectors, indicating a diverse investment landscape [4]. ETF Tracking - There are currently five ETFs tracking the China Securities New Energy Index, two for the National Securities New Energy Battery Index, ten for the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, and eight for the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index [5].