交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-11 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1060元/吨，FG2509收盘价为995元/吨，基差为65元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6975.40万重量箱，较前一周增加3.09%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-4 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1068元/吨，FG2509收盘价为954元/吨，基差为114元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6766.20万重量箱，较前一周减少0.16%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、 ...

玻璃六月报 淡季供增需减 盘面依旧看弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/6/3 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 投资策略：反弹做空 主要逻辑 行情回顾：五月玻璃盘面继续保持流畅的下跌趋势。五月末盘面小幅反弹，一方面是因为纯碱供应过剩，碱玻价差合适， 主流资金进行多玻璃空纯碱的套利操作。另一方面则是受到湖北产线冷修传言的影响，这两方面给予了玻璃做空的空间。后续 大线点火复产和淡季库存回升，导致主力合约跌破1000。供给方面，五月份冷修2条，点火复产3条，日熔量底部抬升。全国 库存维持高位运行，华北华中以价换量效果一般，月末沙河湖北厂库环比增加，厂家库压力较大。主销区受外围降价和天气影 响，市场观望情绪增加，中下游提货速度放缓。煤炭价格持续走弱，华北煤制气工艺利润维持。需求方面，中下游按需采购， 现货降价比较下对原片采购趋谨慎。纯碱方面，前期检修装置复产，供应回升至高位，结合下半年投产计划，市场对远期悲观 预期较浓，同样弱势看待。 后市展望：六月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream purchases on demand, and glass factory inventories have continued to accumulate [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1009 yuan/ton to 985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 1080 yuan/ton to 1072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The main basis increased from 71 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.54% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The profitability of the coal production line has recovered, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [16]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting capacity is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [20][22]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. Other demand - related indicators such as housing sales, new construction, construction, completion area, and downstream processing plant operations and orders are also mentioned but lack specific data updates in this report [26]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.662 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continued to decline to a historical low [4]. - **Negative factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious and mainly digest the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream purchases on demand, and glass factory inventories have continued to accumulate. It is expected that glass will fluctuate at a low level [5].

浮法玻璃市场价格 | 市场 | 型号 | 5月20日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 东北 | 5mm 大板 | 1190 | 1190 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西北 | 5mm 大板 | 1280 | 1280 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西南 | 5mm 大板 | 1290 | 1280 | 7-10 | 元/吨 | | 华东 | 5mm 大板 | 1320 | 1310 | -10 | 元/吨 | | 华中 | 5mm 大板 | 1130 | 1130 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 华南 | 5mm 大板 | 1320 | -1320 | | ■元/吨 | | 非北 | 5mm 大板 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 元/吨 | 浮法玻璃市场分析 今日国内5mm浮法玻璃市场延续稳弱运行，局部区域价格小幅松动。其中，沙河地区部分小板厂家报价下调，成交灵 活，整体出货情况尚可；华东市场受外围降价影响，浙江、山东地区成交重心下移，企业间销售情况存在差异，市场 观望情绪蔓延；华中地区主流价格持稳，个别厂家为促进成交小 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased by 22.0, from 1220.0 to 1198.0; that of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 13.0, from 1207.0 to 1194.0; and the lowest price of 5mm large - plate glass in Hubei decreased by 30.0, from 1140.0 to 1110.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The FG09 contract price decreased by 8.0 from 1082.0 to 1074.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased by 16.0 from 1131.0 to 1115.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 1.4 (from 265.7 to 264.3), and the cost decreased by 3.6 (from 907.3 to 903.7). The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 134.3, while the profit of North China natural - gas glass decreased by 5.0 (from - 203.2 to - 210.3) [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' glass price was around 1168, and the one - price offer for spot - futures was 1180 with weak transactions. The lowest price of factories in Hubei was around 1110. The sales - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 82 in Hubei, 105 in East China, and 115 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 (from 1340.0 to 1330.0), and that in Central China decreased by 20.0 and then increased by 10.0, finally reaching 1300.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 30.0 and then another 10.0, reaching 1220.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The SA05 contract price increased by 4.0 (from 1292.0 to 1296.0), the SA01 contract price decreased by 42.0 (from 1369.0 to 1327.0), and the SA09 contract price decreased by 29.0 (from 1352.0 to 1323.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process increased by 6.4 (from - 122.1 to - 107.0), and the cost decreased by 6.4 (from 1413.4 to 1407.0). The profit of North China combined - soda process decreased by 22.2 (from 40.5 to 18.3) [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1300, that at Shahe warehouses was around 1330, and the terminal delivery price was around 1350 - 1380. There are many maintenance expectations in May [1].

玻璃：传统旺季结束 盘面继续下跌 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：继续下跌 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货小幅反弹后回落，整体下跌趋势仍未改变。供给方面，上周一条产线复产点火，两条产线停产冷 修，日熔量小幅波动。全国厂家库存小幅增加，华北华中库存延续前期拐头向上增长，同比来看华北高于去年，华中维持在同 期高位水平。主销区华东华南整体产销维持相对平稳水平，累库程度不大。煤炭价格继续走弱，煤制气工艺利润得到进一步改 善。需求方面，局部大型加工厂订单稍有好转，深加工订单天数增加明显，但工程订单情况仍然较差，订单天数不及往年。受 制造业优惠政策影响，小板市场成交好于大板。纯碱方面，市场消息多为检修意向，有明确计划的不多，短期内存在产量减少 预期。但结合库存水平和氨碱产能来看，向上反弹空间有限。 后市展望：沙河煤气切改计划属于利空事件。金三银四整体需求成色不佳，传统旺季即将结束，基本面缺乏推涨动力。此 ...

Market Overview - The domestic 5mm float glass market is stable with slight adjustments, particularly in the North China market where some manufacturers have introduced promotional policies to stimulate trading [2] - The East China market remains stable, with some manufacturers adopting flexible shipping strategies based on inventory levels, offering discounts to large order clients to promote inventory reduction [2] - The Southwest region shows improved downstream replenishment activity compared to previous periods, while other regions maintain stable pricing with demand primarily driven by essential replenishment [2] Futures Dynamics - On April 25, the main glass futures contract FG2509 opened at 1137 yuan/ton and closed at 1121 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.75% [3] - The price fluctuated between a high of 1141 yuan/ton and a low of 1117 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,149,632 lots and an increase of 75,634 lots in open interest [3] - The significant decline in glass futures prices is attributed to overall market sentiment fluctuations, with weak fundamentals putting pressure on prices despite low market valuations [3] Inventory and Pricing Outlook - The total inventory of float glass production enterprises is showing a slight downward trend, with some manufacturers increasing shipment efforts to control inventory levels as the holiday approaches [4] - Short-term price expectations are anticipated to remain within a narrow fluctuation range [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-4-23 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修减少，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及 往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库去化放缓；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1160元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1124元/吨，基差为36元，期货贴水 现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6507.80万重量箱，较前一周减少0.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏 空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner due to factors such as low production profit, weak terminal demand, and high inventory. However, considering the supply decline and seasonal factors, it may also show a low - level, slightly stronger volatile trend [2][5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - Glass fundamentals show low production profit, reduced cold - repair in the industry, and the operating rate and production volume have dropped to historically low levels. Deep - processing orders are lower than the same period in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and the destocking of factory inventories has slowed down [2]. - The basis of float glass is 34 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot [2]. - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 65.078 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is moving downward [2]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The short - term outlook for glass is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [2]. 2. Influence Factor Summary - Positive factors include obvious negative feedback on production profit, leading to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors are weak real - estate terminal demand, low orders for glass deep - processing enterprises, poor capital recovery in the deep - processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the potential drag of the upgraded Sino - US tariff conflict and macro - pessimistic sentiment [4]. 3. Main Logic and Risk Points - The main logic is that glass supply has declined to a relatively low level. Driven by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased restocking, resulting in the destocking of glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a slightly stronger volatile manner at a low level [5]. - Risk points include accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [5]. 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1130 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass is 1164 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis is 34 yuan/ton, a 19.05% decrease from the previous value [6]. 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1164 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [16]. 7. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.66%. The production line operation number is at a historical low for the same period [19]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,500 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history [21]. 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [25]. 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 65.078 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory has declined to near the five - year average [42]. 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, output growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the output growth rate is 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [43].