Market Overview - The domestic 5mm float glass market is stable with slight adjustments, particularly in the North China market where some manufacturers have introduced promotional policies to stimulate trading [2] - The East China market remains stable, with some manufacturers adopting flexible shipping strategies based on inventory levels, offering discounts to large order clients to promote inventory reduction [2] - The Southwest region shows improved downstream replenishment activity compared to previous periods, while other regions maintain stable pricing with demand primarily driven by essential replenishment [2] Futures Dynamics - On April 25, the main glass futures contract FG2509 opened at 1137 yuan/ton and closed at 1121 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.75% [3] - The price fluctuated between a high of 1141 yuan/ton and a low of 1117 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,149,632 lots and an increase of 75,634 lots in open interest [3] - The significant decline in glass futures prices is attributed to overall market sentiment fluctuations, with weak fundamentals putting pressure on prices despite low market valuations [3] Inventory and Pricing Outlook - The total inventory of float glass production enterprises is showing a slight downward trend, with some manufacturers increasing shipment efforts to control inventory levels as the holiday approaches [4] - Short-term price expectations are anticipated to remain within a narrow fluctuation range [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-4-23 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修减少，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及 往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库去化放缓；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1160元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1124元/吨，基差为36元，期货贴水 现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6507.80万重量箱，较前一周减少0.19%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏 空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner due to factors such as low production profit, weak terminal demand, and high inventory. However, considering the supply decline and seasonal factors, it may also show a low - level, slightly stronger volatile trend [2][5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - Glass fundamentals show low production profit, reduced cold - repair in the industry, and the operating rate and production volume have dropped to historically low levels. Deep - processing orders are lower than the same period in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and the destocking of factory inventories has slowed down [2]. - The basis of float glass is 34 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot [2]. - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 65.078 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is moving downward [2]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The short - term outlook for glass is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [2]. 2. Influence Factor Summary - Positive factors include obvious negative feedback on production profit, leading to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors are weak real - estate terminal demand, low orders for glass deep - processing enterprises, poor capital recovery in the deep - processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the potential drag of the upgraded Sino - US tariff conflict and macro - pessimistic sentiment [4]. 3. Main Logic and Risk Points - The main logic is that glass supply has declined to a relatively low level. Driven by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased restocking, resulting in the destocking of glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a slightly stronger volatile manner at a low level [5]. - Risk points include accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [5]. 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1130 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass is 1164 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis is 34 yuan/ton, a 19.05% decrease from the previous value [6]. 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1164 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [16]. 7. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.66%. The production line operation number is at a historical low for the same period [19]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,500 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history [21]. 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [25]. 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 65.078 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory has declined to near the five - year average [42]. 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, output growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the output growth rate is 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [43].