Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity exceeds that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, leading to a slight increase in overall output. The demand in the main downstream demand areas has declined, causing a slight increase in inland enterprise inventories. This week, methanol port inventories have accumulated slightly. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2270 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 751,479 lots, down 13,899 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 122,841 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9390 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2035 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference is 275 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 259 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 332 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 243 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 32.4 tons, down 5.55 tons; South China port inventory is 15.99 tons, down 2.25 tons. The total port inventory is 49.24 tons, up 0.85 tons. The methanol import profit is 62.47 yuan/ton, down 10.71 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons. Inland enterprise inventory is 273,600 tons, up 35,800 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.87%, up 0.33%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.97%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 89.71%, up 2.13%; the MTBE operating rate is 56.09%, down 5.28%. The olefin operating rate is 83.29%, up 0.74%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 556 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.67%, down 0.2%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.21%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is down 0.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of May 21, the total methanol port inventory in China is 49.24 tons, up 0.85 tons from the previous period. The sample production enterprise inventory is 33.60 tons, up 0.02 tons, a 0.07% increase. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 3.52 tons, down 3.84 tons, a 14.03% decrease. As of May 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate is 82.31%, down 0.58% [2].

| | | 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 甲醇产业日报 2025-05-19 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2272 | -12 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -68 | 1 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 732433 | 14450 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -100571 | -13681 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 9535 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2335 | -40 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2087.5 | -42.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 247.5 | 2.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 63 | -28 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 266 | -4 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2320 | -45 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -68 | -8 -30467 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 734318 | -55346 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -54025 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8380 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2400 | -90 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2137.5 | 25 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 262.5 | -115 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 80 | -45 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 276 | 8 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 340 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term of the MA2509 contract is expected to be strong due to the unexpectedly positive results of the Sino - US negotiations, but investors should not blindly chase the rise and need to control risks. It is also expected that the short - term enterprise inventory may slightly accumulate, while the port methanol inventory is expected to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,270 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 757,482 lots, down 10,354 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,779 lots, up 18,533 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,380, unchanged [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,405 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,100 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference is 305 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 135 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 230 euros/ton, down 1 euro; the price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.79 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.17 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 37.95 tons, down 1.29 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 18.24 tons, up 3.74 tons. The methanol import profit is 100.81 yuan/ton, up 11.4 yuan; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 237,800 tons, down 11,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.17%, up 2.2% [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.54%, down 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.97%, down 0.69%; the acetic acid operating rate is 87.58%, down 1.26%; the MTBE operating rate is 61.37%, up 0.58%; the olefin operating rate is 82.55%, down 0.8%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 580 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.64%, up 0.24%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.28%, up 0.59%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.64%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.63%, down 0.39% [3]. Industry News - As of May 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 30.39 tons, up 2.06 tons or 7.26% from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 23.78 tons, down 1.19 tons or 4.75%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 55.19 tons, up 1.45 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.29 tons, while that in South China increased by 2.74 tons. As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.48%, down 0.87% month - on - month [3].

甲醇产业日报 2025-04-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2310 | 22 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 79 | -3 1047 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 679905 | 17344 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -51602 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7106 | 23 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2410 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2190 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 220 | 2 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 100 | -17 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 271 | 1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 340 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 270 | 0 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -69 | 1 | | 上 ...