交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月19日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：巴西中南部：本榨季截至7月底累计产糖1927万吨，同比减少7.8%。2025年7月底， 24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年 7月中国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；6月进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨，同比减 少10.32万吨。中性。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6040，基差368（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Zhengzhou sugar price rose, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The previously opened window for out - of - quota import profit is expected to increase imports, suppressing the rebound of the 09 contract. The main funds flowed into the 01 contract, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to shrink due to the domestic production cut expectation. In the overseas market, due to the ongoing production cut in Brazil, the global supply is tight in the short term, providing strong support for the external market price, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand prevents the raw sugar price from rising unilaterally. In the short term, the SR2509 contract is weak, the SR2601 contract is strong, and there is a possibility that the 9 - 1 spread will continue to narrow [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6010 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it was 5780 - 5940 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase [3]. - **International Market**: In the first week of August, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data showed that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [4][9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 18, 2025, the closing prices of SR01, SR03, SR05, SR07, SR09, and SR11 were 5664, 5640, 5622, 5616, 5740, and 5667 respectively, all with a 0% change. The spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc. are also provided [6]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, etc. and their price differences are presented. For example, the price in Nanning was 5960 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis and Import Price Change - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their changes are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 316, a 61 - yuan decrease [7][10]. - **Import Price Change**: The quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are shown. For example, the quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan increase [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. It is expected to fluctuate between 5,600 - 5,700 in the short - term unless there is a further significant drop in foreign sugar prices [5][6]. - Foreign sugar prices fell back below 17 cents per pound after a brief rebound [6]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. Due to SR2601 having already factored in the bearish expectations in advance and the decline being almost complete, the price is close to the cost of imported sugar with out - of - quota tariffs. As of the end of July in the current Brazilian crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors: increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons with a production of 20.2 million tons; USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons with a production of 18.9318 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Sugar Costs**: From July 2024 to July 2025, the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs decreased overall. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and tax - paid cost was 5,600 - 5,650 yuan per ton [45]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data content is provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus amount. The price of foreign sugar has rebounded briefly and then fallen back below 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 currently follows the trend of foreign sugar and may fluctuate in the range of 5,600 - 5,700 in the short term [5][8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Negative factors include the increase in global sugar production, a new year of global supply surplus, and the opening of the import profit window due to the low price of foreign sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review The report does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market supply surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and imported 115,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,040 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 381 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short - position increase. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: After a brief rebound, foreign sugar has fallen back below 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 currently follows the trend of foreign sugar and may fluctuate in the range of 5,600 - 5,700 in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus The report does not contain content related to today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - **Sugar Production and Consumption in China**: The sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are provided. The expected sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.2 million tons, with an expected consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Cost of Imported Raw Sugar Processing**: The cost of imported raw sugar processing after tax (50% tariff) from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided. The cost has generally shown a downward trend, affected by factors such as Brazilian production data and global production expectations [42]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, with a net short - position increase, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 13 日 白糖：内外共振上行 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水量阶段性减弱；巴西 6 月出口 336 万 吨，同比增加 5%。中国 6 月进口食糖 42 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业协会 数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 811 万吨 （+152 万吨），累计销糖率 72.7%。中国海关数据显示，截至 6 月底，24/25 榨季中国累计进口食糖 251 万吨 （-65 万吨）。25/26 榨季，市场预期广西出糖率下降、生产成本上升。 国际市场：ISO 预计 24/25 榨季全球食糖供应短缺 547 万吨 (前值短缺 488 万吨)。UNICA 数据显示，截 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the sugar industry dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 306,587 lots, down 571 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 17,853, down 387; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -37,611 lots, down 1,429 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4398 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4474 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5584 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5683 yuan/ton [2] - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5815 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning is 5960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6010 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2] - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 million tons, up 234,700 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1457 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1381 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 271 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 172 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.32%, down 4.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.32%, down 4.3 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.74%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.86%, down 0.68 percentage points [2] Group 3: Industry News - Brazilian foreign trade secretariat export data shows that Brazil exported 1,094,070.33 tons of sugar in the first week of August, with a daily average export volume of 182,345.05 tons, a 2% increase compared to the daily average export volume of the entire August last year [2] - On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed up 1.66%. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.61% [2] - Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of sugar cane in the 2025/26 season, and there are some buying orders from the CFTC report, leading to a short - term rebound in raw sugar prices [2] Group 4: Core View - Domestically, the profit outside the quota remains at a relatively high level, and the import expectation for the near - term is increasing. Beet sugar will start to be crushed in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply [2] - On the demand side, due to the hot summer weather, it is the peak season for cold drink demand, but due to weak prices, purchases are made on a need - to - buy basis, and demand is average [2] - In terms of inventory, the previous production and sales progress was good, and the current inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process [2] - For new crops, according to the sugar supply and demand report released by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.2 million tons, a slight increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years [2] - Overall, the foreign market price has rebounded, and the domestic sugar 2601 contract has followed suit, closing up 0.61%. However, the pressure of increasing import expectations remains, and the spot price is weak. The far - month contracts correspond to the new crushing season supply, and it is expected that the future prices will still be under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short, while paying attention to risk control [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar switched to the 01 contract, which showed a weak trend and fell below the 5,600 mark. Currently, the price of the 01 contract is similar to the price of imported raw sugar after out - of - quota tariffs. The 01 contract is under short - term pressure to decline due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and a significant increase in out - of - quota imported sugar in July. It should be treated with a short - term bearish and oscillating mindset [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window with the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar switched to the 01 contract, which was weak and fell below 5,600. StoneX adjusted the global sugar market supply surplus in the 25/26 season down by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - The 01 contract is under short - term pressure to decline due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and a significant increase in out - of - quota imported sugar in July. It should be treated with a short - term bearish and oscillating mindset [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons, and StoneX adjusts the surplus down to 3.04 million tons. Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season, reaching 199.174 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. - **Domestic market data**: The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Import data**: In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons. The state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons [8]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The consumption peak season is coming to an end, and the significant increase in out-of-quota imported sugar in July has put short-term downward pressure on the 01 contract. It is advisable to adopt a short-term bearish and oscillatory trading strategy [5][8]. - The overall evaluation of the sugar market is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present. Positive factors include strong domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, while negative factors include increased global sugar production and supply surplus in the new season [4][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales ratio of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,010 yuan, with a basis of 437 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short position increasing. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar market surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA predicts 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow predicts 7.8 million tons, and Datagro predicts 2.58 million tons [36]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane planting area, sugar production, import volume, and consumption in China are expected to remain relatively stable. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 to 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to range from 5,800 to 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Import Cost**: The refined after-tax cost of imported raw sugar (50% tariff) has been decreasing. In July 2025, the ICE raw sugar average price was 16.35 cents per pound, and the refined after-tax cost was between 5,600 and 5,650 yuan per ton [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The consumption peak season is about to end, and there was a significant increase in out - of - quota imported sugar in July. The 01 contract is under short - term pressure and is expected to decline. Adopt a short - term bearish and oscillatory approach [5][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX estimates that the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season has been reduced by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons. The situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 445 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar - making season was 3.0483 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. Coca - Cola in the US has changed its formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7]. - **Medium - term View**: There is a gap in China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 yuan. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff for raw sugar [9]. - **Short - term View**: Trump's approval of the Coke formula modification is long - term bullish. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season's global sugar market surplus, ranging from 153,000 tons to 1.1397 million tons [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance (25/26)**: The global sugar production is expected to be 20.2 million tons, reaching the second - highest level in history, with Brazil, India, and Thailand leading the production increase. The global consumption is estimated at 19.8 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand having the fastest growth rate at 2.2%. There is an expected surplus of 270,000 tons, and institutional forecasts vary. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%, indicating a relief in inventory pressure but still below the long - term average. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [37]. - **Institutional Forecasts in the Past 3 Months**: USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons, ISO predicts a shift from a 488,000 - ton shortage in the 24/25 season to a possible surplus in the 25/26 season, and StoneX estimates a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 430,000 tons [40]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Data**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are predicted. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.9 million tons [42]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position, and the trend of the main force is unclear, showing a bearish tendency [5].