行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar may be nearing its end as the long - position funds are actively shifting to the 01 contract, causing the 9 - 1 spread to weaken. Currently, the basis is large, and there is certain support at the 5700 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5697 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.42%, with a position reduction of 20364 lots; SR601 closed at 5638 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.21%, with a position increase of 24152 lots; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.25 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 2539 lots; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.88 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.60%, with a position increase of 2476 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: New York raw sugar futures strengthened on Monday. The bearish production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July suppressed the raw sugar price, but concerns about the decline in Brazil's production still exist, and there is a high possibility of a reduction in beet sugar production in the EU. Zhengzhou sugar's decline was mainly due to the long - position funds' shift to the 01 contract [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China - Guangxi**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing in Guangxi was 4859.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 646.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales were 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 35.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.78 million tons; the industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons [9]. - **China - Yunnan**: The 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan ended 5 days earlier than last year. The total cane crushing was 1806.30 million tons (compared with 1544.94 million tons in the previous season), the sugar output was 241.88 million tons (compared with 203.20 million tons in the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and the alcohol output was 2.82 million tons (compared with 2.80 million tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 80.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the monthly sugar sales were 20.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons; the industrial inventory was 46.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06 million tons [9]. - **Brazil**: In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4982.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 641.1 million tons or 14.77%; the ATR of cane was 133.66 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.79 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%; the ethanol output was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 0.051 billion liters or 2.36%; the sugar output was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.446 million tons or 15.07% [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][17].

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: August 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward drive in the sugar market is not strong currently, despite the bearish production data from the first half of July in the central - southern region of Brazil, as concerns about the decline in Brazilian sugar production still remain [7] - The recent decline of Zhengzhou sugar is mainly due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. However, considering the rapid decline in futures prices and the large basis, this round of decline may be nearing its end [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Friday, New York raw sugar futures weakened. The main October contract closed 0.92% lower at 16.20 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed 0.6% lower at $465.00 per ton. In the domestic market, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly. The SR509 contract closed at 5,718 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan or 0.76%, with a reduction of 25,642 positions. The SR601 contract closed at 5,636 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan or 0.05%, with an increase of 12,592 positions. The No. 10 contract of US sugar closed at 16.20 cents per pound, down 0.15 cents or 0.92%, with a reduction of 3,169 positions. The No. 03 contract of US sugar closed at 16.80 cents per pound, down 0.17 cents or 1.00%, with an increase of 1,384 positions [7] - **Spot Market**: Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. The price of Nanning sugar was reported at 6,010 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5,820 yuan [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: In the first half of July 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%. The sugar production ratio was 53.68%, an increase of 3.79 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. From the start of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season until the first half of July, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%. The cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [9] - **India**: The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million metric tons, compared with 29.5 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season. The estimated total sugar - cane planting area in the 2025/26 season is about 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than the 5.711 million hectares in the 2024/25 season [9] 3.3 Data Overview - Various data charts are presented, including the SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [13][15][20][23] - The total trading volume of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 216,510 lots, a decrease of 33,087 lots. The total long - position volume was 153,878 lots, a decrease of 13,283 lots, and the total short - position volume was 144,032 lots, a decrease of 15,158 lots [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 2.43%. Internationally, the rainy season has brought good production prospects for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil have cast a shadow of loose supply on the raw sugar market. However, the lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. On the demand side, the hot summer has led to increased demand for food and beverage industries, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, supporting the price. Overall, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate due to the combination of peak domestic demand and increased imports and expected global supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. International sugar market: The rainy season in Asia and strong production in Brazil lead to a supply - loose expectation, but lower ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand support prices. Domestic sugar market: The opening of the out - of - quota profit window releases import pressure, and the peak consumption season provides support. The overall market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.43%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.65% month - on - month to 198,761 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position increased by 0.86% month - on - month to 258,490 contracts. The non - commercial net position was - 59,729 contracts, a decrease of 14.65% month - on - month [8]. - The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was 3,472 contracts, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443 [21]. - **Spot Market**: - As of August 1, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,900 yuan/ton [25]. - As of July 29, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%; the in - quota price was 4,533 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,828 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%; the in - quota price was 4,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [28]. - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 199 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.44% from the previous week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.42% from the previous week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: - By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The total sugar production in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [38]. - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [42]. - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [46]. - **Demand Side**: - As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China were 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45% [50]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [55]. 3.4 Option Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not described in text [56]. 3.5 Sugar Futures - Stock Correlation Market - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in text [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 25/26 global sugar market is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, but there are differences in institutional forecasts. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the basis regression. The main contract is about to switch to the 01 contract, and support around 5600 for the 01 contract should be monitored [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,100 yuan, with a basis of 445 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons, which is bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main position trend is still bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the basis regression. The main contract is about to switch to the 01 contract, and support around 5600 for the 01 contract should be monitored [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand Forecast for 25/26**: Global production is expected to reach 202 million tons, a record - high second, mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand. Global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asia's demand growing by 1.3% and Africa having the fastest growth rate at 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [35]. - **Institutional Forecasts for 2025/26**: USDA predicts a surplus of 11.397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro predicts a surplus of 2.58 million tons, ISO predicts a shift from a shortage of 4.88 million tons in 24/25 to a possible surplus in 25/26, and StoneX predicts a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 4.3 million tons [38]. - **China's Sugar Industry Data**: The sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugar production, import, consumption, and price data from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are provided, showing relatively stable trends in various indicators [40]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market Conditions - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Friday. The main October contract closed down 1.75% at 16.28 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main October contract closed down 1.9% at $471.00 per ton. The market predicts that Brazil's latest sugar production will increase due to dry weather, but overall, there is a high possibility of a production cut in Brazil [6][7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract was weak yesterday. The 09 contract closed at 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan or 0.53%, with a position reduction of 18,873 lots. The spot price in domestic producing areas declined slightly. Nanning sugar was quoted at 6,060 yuan, and Kunming sugar was quoted at 5,850 yuan. Today, Zhengzhou sugar's trend was influenced by the external market and weakened. The far - month 01 contract was significantly stronger, and speculative funds showed a clear intention to go long. The 9 - 1 spread may further shrink [7][8]. Contract Details | Contract | Closing Price (Yuan/Ton or Cents/Pound) | Change | Change Rate | Position (Lots) | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR509 | 5845 | -31 | -0.53% | 324831 | -18873 | | SR601 | 5702 | | | | | | 10 | 16.28 | | | | | 398579 | -2410 | | US Sugar | 16.90 | | | | | 223083 | 2296 | [7] Group 3: Industry News - As of July 25, Tiandong Ertang Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory, becoming the 7th sugar factory of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still quoting [9]. - The "Mutual Recognition Arrangement between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the Customs Department of the Kingdom of Thailand on the Mutual Recognition of China's Customs Enterprise Credit Management System and Thailand's Customs 'Authorized Economic Operator' System" will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [9]. - The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered its forecast for the average sugar beet yield in the EU in 2025 to 74.8 tons per hectare, down from 76.3 tons per hectare last month, but still 2% higher than the average of the past five years [9]. - In June 2025, China imported 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (including tax codes 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 45.91 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, China imported 109.83 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons [9]. - In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [9][10]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents data on spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][13][15] - The trading volume of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract was 298,040 lots, an increase of 53,256 lots. The long - position volume was 242,931 lots, a decrease of 10,763 lots. The short - position volume was 231,782 lots, a decrease of 10,343 lots [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the external sugar market has slowed down, lingering at a low level, weakening the downward pressure on domestic prices. The domestic demand is in the peak season, boosting the center of the white sugar futures price to rise slightly during stable operation. However, the increase in imports and the expectation of loose global supply will limit the upside potential of prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main white sugar futures contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan; the position of the main contract was 324,831 lots, a decrease of 18,873 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,150, a decrease of 492; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was 800 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,920 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,502 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,451 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 298 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 231 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for white sugar was 10.22%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 10.23%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the 20-day historical volatility was 4.6%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility was 6.95%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to the report of the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central-southern region declined in June. As of June in the 2025/26 crushing season, the sugar content index (ATR) of sugarcane decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, from 125.2 kg/ton to 121.4 kg/ton [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main sugar contract 09 continued to fluctuate above 5800. As the futures price slightly increased, the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed [4]. - The modification of the cola formula is a long - term positive for sugar. Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 period. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 million tons, and USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons [4][7]. - By the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. - Domestic sugar is about to be cleared from inventory. During the current peak consumption season, the market sales are good, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and near - term contracts are stronger than far - term contracts. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 250. In the next month or so, the spot price may slightly decline, and the futures 09 may rise slightly to complete the basis regression. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 5800 - 6000 [4][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - **Likely positive factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and relatively low short - term out - of - quota imports. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is also positive [4][5]. - **Likely negative factors**: Global sugar production is increasing, and there will be a surplus in the new season. The overseas sugar price is around 17 cents per pound, and the import profit window is open, increasing import pressure [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Global supply - demand situation**: In the 25/26 period, the global sugar production is expected to reach 202 million tons (a record - high second), mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand. The global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand growing at the fastest rate of 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [34]. - **Domestic supply - demand situation**: By the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets, and near - term contracts are stronger than long - term ones. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 300. In the next month or so, the spot price may decline slightly, while the 09 futures price may rise slightly to complete the convergence of the futures - spot price difference. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 5800 - 6000 [5]. - The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, but there are differences in the forecasts of various institutions [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. Negative factors include increased global sugar production and a surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The modification of the cola formula is a long - term positive for sugar. Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 1139.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 297, indicating a premium over the futures, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 304.83 million tons, which is positive [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is positive [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus, Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus, Green Pool expects a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 1.9917 billion tons, and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 1139.7 million tons [4][9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand Data**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 million tons [4]. - **Price and Spread**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 297. The import price after processing imported raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5693, and the import spread is - 130. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 6000 [6][9]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic demand for sugar is recovering, and the price of sugar futures in China is stronger than that in the international market. With multiple factors at play, the overall sugar price is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 334,160 lots, down 2,993 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,359, down 78; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -2,538 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,583 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,644 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 8.38%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.26%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 2.34472471 million tons of sugar in the first half of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,480.34 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].