研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,260 | -7 | -0.13% | 15,933 | -4763 | 89,055 | 58 | | SR01 | | 5,340 | 36 | 0.68% | 134 | -4707 | 117 | 117 | | SR05 | | 5,244 | -14 | -0.27% | 217,180 | 39411 | 427,297 | 580 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5390 | 5215 | 5660 | 5360 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 0.57%. In December 2025, both the sugar cane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased year - on - year. The domestic market is in the peak of the 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season, with overall data being slightly bearish. Although downstream stocking has started and food processing enterprises' procurement has increased, the overall increase is limited. Against the background of an expected increase in production, sugar prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [5][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.57% [5][17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the first half of December 2025, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 5.92 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, and produced 254,200 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 28.80%. In the domestic market, during the 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season, sugar production and sales in Guangxi in December decreased year - on - year, while Yunnan's sugar production progress was faster and sales were slightly better than the same period last year. Downstream stocking has started, but the overall increase in procurement by food processing enterprises is limited. Sugar prices lack the motivation to rebound and are expected to remain volatile [5]. - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.01%. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 154,098 lots, an increase of 16,276 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 8,581 lots, and short positions increased by 76,950 lots [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.72 cents per pound, an increase of 0.32 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.57%. The top twenty net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 72,594 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 14,126 [17][25]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread and Basis**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 9 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 132 yuan/ton [29]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of January 16, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,390 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,370 yuan/ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,388 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 259 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan/ton from last week [42]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: Not detailed in the report about overall production situation, but mentioned the situation of Brazil and domestic regions. - **Industrial Inventory**: Not detailed in the report. - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Rate**: The sugar sales rate is average, but no detailed data is provided. - **Production of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In November 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was mentioned, but no detailed data was provided. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific analysis was given.

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,291, down 8 (-0.15%); SR01 closed at 5,316, up 6 (0.11%); SR05 closed at 5,285, down 3 (-0.06%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions varied, with prices in places like Liuzhou at 5390 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5230 yuan/ton, etc. The price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions also showed differences, such as 105 in Liuzhou, - 55 in Kunming, etc [3] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 31, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 6, down 5; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 25, down 14 [3] - **Import Profits**: The quota - within and quota - outside prices, as well as the spreads with domestic prices and futures prices, were provided for Brazilian and Thai imports [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In December, the forecasted arrival of tariff - quota - outside raw sugar was 268,600 tons. From the 25/26 sugar - making season to the end of December, Brazil had cumulatively exported 1,447,100 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 878,000 tons. The estimated import volume of sugar in December was between 400,000 - 500,000 tons, higher than last year's 390,000 tons. The total sugar import volume in 2025 was expected to be around 4.8 million tons, higher than 4.35 million tons in 2024 [5] - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills had started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed sugarcane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89% [5] - In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 331,000 tons. In 2025, Brazil cumulatively exported 4,767,500 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 1,747,200 tons [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as the sugarcane harvest nears completion. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an over - expected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and the strong performance of bulk commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton) and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price on the external market (the quota - outside cost of imported Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton) support the white sugar price. But considering the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar increase in the 25/26 season, there is significant pressure on the upper oscillation platform of white sugar prices. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in different regions and time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][14][15]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Sugar Weekly Report (1.5 - 1.9) - **Reporting Department**: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Reporter**: Wang Mingwei 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar generally fluctuated within the range of 5,200 - 5,300, with weak short - term rebound momentum. The main sugar contract 05 is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, with attention on the resistance around 5,300. Currently, it is the peak season for new sugar listing and the off - season for consumption, so the rebound strength is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate within the 5,200 - 5,300 range [4][5][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar generally fluctuated within the 5,200 - 5,300 range, with weak short - term rebound momentum. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163,000 tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280,000 tons to 100,000 tons, Czarnikow increasing the forecast to 740,000 tons, and StoneX predicting 370,000 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and imported 114,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The main sugar contract 05 is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, with attention on the resistance around 5,300. Currently, it is the peak season for new sugar listing and the off - season for consumption, so the rebound strength is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate within the 5,200 - 5,300 range [5][8]. - Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370,000 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons as the global supply is expected to shift significantly from shortage to surplus compared to the previous season [4][31]. - From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane sown area, harvested area, and sugar production in China show an upward trend. The import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, and the consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5,086.1 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025, with considerable import profit due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Views - The key issue in the market is whether the current price has reached the bottom. The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include whether the price of the 05 contract has bottomed out, and why the international market cannot hold the price at 15 cents. The 05 contract is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so its price may follow the raw sugar price. However, considering the lack of bullish factors, the probability of the futures price rising further is limited. The 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may become a pressure level in the long - term due to global oversupply [1] - In the short - term trading logic, as the SR2601 contract enters the delivery month, the 3 - 5 spread has turned from positive to negative. The 03 contract faces greater pressure as it is after the Spring Festival and during the peak period of domestic sugar inventory. In the long - term trading logic, SR2605 is a transit contract and not a turning - point contract. In 2026, the import pressure will increase from May, so SR2609 faces greater pressure from imports and carry - over inventory than SR2605 [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The focus of market trading is whether the current price has reached the bottom. The 05 contract is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. The price may follow the raw sugar price, but with limited upside potential due to lack of bullish factors. The 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may be a pressure level [1] - In the short - term, the 3 - 5 spread has changed from positive to negative, and the 03 contract has more pressure. In the long - term, SR2609 has greater import and carry - over inventory pressure than SR2605 [3][6] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a sideways shock. The Zhengzhou sugar moving averages show a sideways pattern, and the 05 contract's K - line has faced resistance near the 60 - day moving average. The price may fluctuate and potentially fall back to the 20 - day moving average [8] - Recent strategy review includes various positions such as long SR2511 (stopped out), selling spot + buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited), etc. [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5000 - 5300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [10] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350, and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% ratio at 5150 - 5200, and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: As of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil decreased by 9% year - on - year. As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 25.35% year - on - year, with corresponding decreases in sugar content, sugar - making rate, and sugar production [11] - Bearish information: As of December, Guangxi's sugar production decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year, and sales decreased by 74.74 tons; Yunnan's sugar production increased by 6.54 tons, and sales increased by 0.43 tons. Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase by 5 tons. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugarcane crushing volume increased compared to the same period last season. Brazil's sugar exports in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar increased. Indian sugar mills have signed about 180,000 tons of sugar export contracts [12] 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Monitor Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar volume and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) and Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The futures price rose this week, with the main 05 contract up 0.7%. The position of the SR2605 contract decreased seasonally, the largest profitable seat increased net short positions to 27,000 contracts, and foreign capital's net short positions decreased slightly to 36,400 contracts. The market shows a sideways shock [16] - **Domestic Market - Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of the 03 contract shows that the cheapest deliverable is at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the market, mainly due to the decline in import prices. The market price is at a premium of 54 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened since December, changing from near - month premium to discount. The forward structure is gradually changing to a far - month premium [18] - **Foreign Market**: The raw sugar price rose 1.99% last week, approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large number of short positions, with a net short position of 154,000 contracts, which increased compared to the previous week [20] - **Foreign Market - Spread Structure**: The raw sugar futures structure is gradually changing to a Contango structure. Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production decreased by 25% year - on - year. The far - month premium is beneficial for sugar mills' hedging, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [22] - **Domestic and Foreign Price Difference Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between the domestic and foreign sugar markets is complex. Currently, the domestic supply pressure has increased, and the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss, changing the previous pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness to domestic weakness and foreign strength [24] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar with high production costs, so it implements a quota system. Recently, due to the continuous decline in the foreign market price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit has been very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports can also supplement the supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam was closed last year, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. The import of syrup and premixed powder has been relatively stable [27] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Since the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year, reaching about 1.156 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season, and this week's data remains unchanged [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Newly released data shows that the sugar production and sugar yield in Guangxi and Guangdong in December declined, which is beneficial for the rebound of sugar prices [8] - The A-share market is showing signs of high-level stagnation, increasing the likelihood of a correction. Commodities have followed suit and declined significantly, and Zhengzhou sugar has followed this trend [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures fluctuated and rebounded. The main March contract closed up 1.42% at 14.97 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed up 0.95% at $423.60 per ton. The raw sugar fundamentals have not changed much, and the recent continuous appreciation of the Brazilian real exchange rate has put some pressure on raw sugar, with the market in a sideways consolidation [7] - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose first and then fell. The 05 contract closed at 5,279 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan or 0.08%, with a reduction of 10,268 contracts. The new domestic sugar quotes increased, with Nanning at 5,375 yuan per ton and Kunming at 5,220 yuan per ton [8] 3.2行业要闻 No relevant information provided. 3.3数据概览 - As of the end of December, Inner Mongolia had cumulatively produced 580,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, with a beet sugar production rate of 11.68%. It is estimated that the final sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 sugar - making season will be around 710,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year [10] - The Indian government will review the export performance of sugar mills after March 31, 2026, and may redistribute unused quotas to sugar mills with better export performance or willing sugar mills. A total of 1.5 million tons of sugar export quota was allocated for the 2025 - 26 sugar - crushing season [10] - Brazil exported about 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From April 2025 to December 2025, Brazil had cumulatively exported 28.1722 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% [10] - As of January 1, Ukrainian sugar mills had cumulatively processed 10.43 million tons of beets and produced 1.574 million tons of sugar since the start of this sugar - crushing season [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and considering the significant decline in commodities today, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate, with support from high processing costs and potential upward drive from rising foreign sugar prices, but facing sales pressure during the peak domestic sugar - pressing season and global sugar production increase expectations [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,290, down 3 (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 15,167 (down 3,837) and an open interest of 76,794 (up 909); SR01 closed at 5,300, down 7 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 657 (down 439) and an open interest of 8,782 (down 649); SR05 closed at 5,279, down 2 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 218,370 (down 13,539) and an open interest of 429,678 (down 10,268) [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions vary, with prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an being 5,390, 5,230, 5,660, 5,370, 5,530, 5,545, and 5,810 respectively. The price changes in Kunming, Wuhan, and Nanning are 10, and the price change in Bayuquan is 5,530. The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Rizhao, and Xi'an are 111, - 49, 381, 91, 266, and 531 respectively [3] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread is - 21 (up 5), SR09 - SR05 spread is 11 (down 1), and SR09 - SR01 spread is - 10 (up 4) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.04, and a freight of 32.75, the in - quota price is 4,032, the out - of - quota price is 5,123, the spread with Liuzhou is 267, the spread with Rizhao is 422, and the spread with the futures market is 177. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price is 4,078, the out - of - quota price is 5,182, the spread with Liuzhou is 208, the spread with Rizhao is 363, and the spread with the futures market is 118 [3] 2. Market Judgment - **Important Information** - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 7, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons (25.35%) compared to the same period last year. The sugar content in cane was 11.54%, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. The sugar - producing rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 0.5673 million tons (27.03%) compared to the same period last year [5] - As of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44 (previously 42), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5823 million tons (previously 1.417 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 0.1653 million tons (11.66%) [5] - The Indian government announced a 1.5 - million - ton sugar export quota for the 2025 - 26 sugar - crushing season. If a sugar factory does not want to export according to the quota, it can abandon the quota before March 31, 2026. The government will review the export performance of sugar factories after March 31, 2026, and may re - allocate unused quotas [7] - **Logical Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian cane is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.904 million tons, an increase of 0.543 million tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the over - expected increase may have a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar prices and the strong performance of commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range over the years. After the previous over - expected decline, the short - covering market has been repaired. The high processing cost of domestic sugar (most sugar factories in Guangxi have a cost of over 5,400 yuan/ton) supports the futures market. The upward trend of the US sugar price on the external market has an upward driving force for Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 2025/26 season, there is significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform [8] - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and considering the significant decline in commodities today, the sugar price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Arbitrage**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, white sugar basis for different contract months, and price spreads between different contracts [11][15][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are predicted to show an oscillating trend in the near future [9][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: On January 6, 2026, SR09 closed at 5,275 with a gain of 6 (0.11%), SR01 at 5,285 with a gain of 7 (0.13%), and SR05 at 5,259 with a gain of 2 (0.04%). The trading volumes of SR09, SR01, and SR05 were 12,920, 681, and 187,904 respectively, with changes of 3766, -742, and 51798. The open interests were 72,898, 10,501, and 427,408 respectively, with changes of 1342, -681, and 4843 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different locations on January 6, 2026, were as follows: 5380 in Liuzhou, 5200 in Kunming, 5650 in Wuhan, 5350 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 5545 in Rizhao, and 5790 in Xi'an. The price changes were 10 in Liuzhou, 0 in Kunming, 0 in Wuhan, 20 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 0 in Rizhao, and 0 in Xi'an. The corresponding basis values were 121, -59, 391, 91, and 286, 531 [3]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads of SR05 - SR01, SR09 - SR05, and SR09 - SR01 were -26, 16, and -10 respectively, with changes of -5, 4, and -1 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 14.77, a premium of 0.04, and a freight of 32.75, the in - quota price was 3974, the out - of - quota price was 5046, the spread with Liuzhou was 334, the spread with Rizhao was 499, and the spread with the futures market was 239. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4019, the out - of - quota price was 5105, the spread with Liuzhou was 275, the spread with Rizhao was 440, and the spread with the futures market was 180 [3]. Part 2: Market Outlook - **Important Information**: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 73 sugar mills had all started crushing, one less than the previous year. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 1623.03 million tons, a decrease of 525.15 million tons year - on - year; the output of blended sugar was 194.19 million tons, a decrease of 80.95 million tons; the sugar - production rate was 11.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sugar sales were 88.48 million tons, a decrease of 74.74 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, the monthly sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, a decrease of 43.1 million tons, and the monthly sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, a decrease of 55.18 million tons. The industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a decrease of 6.21 million tons [5]. - As of January 1, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 26 sugar mills among the members of the Ukrainian Sugar Producers Association had started production, processing 1043 million tons of sugar beets and producing 157.4 million tons of sugar. The sugar - production rate of sugar beets in this season reached 15.19%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to the previous season, and the sugar content of sugar beets was 17.63%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points year - on - year. Six sugar mills were still processing sugar beets in January, and the production of this season was expected to end before January 20, 2026 [6]. - On January 6, the spot prices of sugar in the main production areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar cane is expected to gradually enter the end of the crushing season. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 3990.4 million tons, an increase of 54.3 million tons compared to the same period last year. As Brazilian sugar enters the end of the crushing season, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. Although the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere is high, the actual realization may affect the futures price. In the short term, the US sugar price has technically bottomed out but lacks upward momentum, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [9]. - Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range of previous years. After the previous unexpected decline, the short - covering market has been somewhat repaired. Secondly, the domestic sugar processing cost is relatively high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton, which provides some support for the futures price. Finally, the recent trend of the US sugar price on the external market shows signs of bottoming out, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which has an upward driving force for Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering that China is currently in the peak sugar - crushing season and there is still some sales pressure, and the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, it is expected that there will be significant pressure on the sugar price near the upper oscillation platform. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts such as Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, Guangxi's monthly production, Yunnan's monthly production, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, Liuzhou - Kunming spot sugar price spread, sugar's September basis, Zhengzhou sugar's 5 - 9 spread, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [13][14][19].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestic sugar is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the near future [8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,269 with a rise of 3 (0.06%), trading volume of 9,154 (a decrease of 7505), and an increase in open interest of 1,495. SR01 closed at 5,278 with a rise of 14 (0.27%), trading volume of 1,423 (a decrease of 1,667), and a decrease in open interest of 1,391. SR05 closed at 5,257 with a rise of 6 (0.11%), trading volume of 136,106 (a decrease of 64,247), and an increase in open interest of 6,906 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,370 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20), in Kunming 5,200 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10), in Wuhan 5,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5,330 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10), in Rizhao 5,545 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5,790 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20). The basis in Liuzhou was 113, in Kunming - 57, in Wuhan 393, in Nanning 73, and in Rizhao 288 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 21 (a decrease of 8), SR09 - SR05 was 12 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 was - 9 (a decrease of 11) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - within price was 3,946 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,010 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 360, and the spread with Rizhao was 535. For Thai imports, the quota - within price was 3,994 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,072 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 298, and the spread with Rizhao was 473 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of January 5, all 19 sugar mills in Guangdong for the 25/26 crushing season have started production. By the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons (compared to 116,300 tons in the same period last year), with a sugar yield of 8.72% (compared to 9.397% last year). The price of sulfured sugar of Guangdong Jinling in the 25/26 crushing season was 5,310 yuan/ton, and carbonated sugar was 5,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton in the afternoon). On January 5, the sugar futures market fluctuated and closed higher. The spot price of sugar in the main producing areas was basically stable in the afternoon, but the secondary quotes of Nanhua and Yingmao were raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall trading volume was average. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 1.1897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase compared to the same period last year; 504 sugar mills had started production, 12 more than the same period last year [4][5][7]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the end of the crushing season. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 39.904 million tons, an increase of 543,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle, but the final realization of the production increase may affect the market trend. In the short - term, the US sugar price is technically building a bottom, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range over the years. After the previous unexpected decline, the short - covering market has been repaired. The high processing cost of domestic sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5,400 yuan/ton) provides some support for the market. The upward trend of the US sugar price on the external market has an upward driving effect on Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - crushing season and there is still some sales pressure, and the global sugar production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, the sugar price is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar is expected to show an oscillatory trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Options**: Sell put options [10]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing data on monthly inventory, monthly output, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][16][18][20][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, as of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. The market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: This week, the price of the US Sugar March contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 2.04%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 159,080 lots, an increase of 4,167 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 316,729 lots, a decrease of 20,746 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.93 cents per pound, an increase of 0.38 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 62,287 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 5,182. The price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 15 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 159 yuan per ton [17][23][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 31, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,410 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan per ton. This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 46 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,108 yuan per ton, an increase of 57 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was - 16 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week [33][39]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1.11621 billion tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [48]. - **Demand Side - Sales Rate**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Demand Side - Production Volume**: In November 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [56]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Only the historical PE ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, with no specific data analysis [62].