Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 514.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 268.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [7] - The company is focusing on dual drivers of revenue growth from both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with a planned revenue increase of 9% for 2025 [7] - The company aims to optimize product and channel matching to explore revenue increments, maintaining stable pricing for Moutai liquor [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 150,560 million yuan - 2024A: 174,144 million yuan - 2025E: 190,054 million yuan - 2026E: 206,830 million yuan - 2027E: 227,000 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2023A: 18.04% - 2024A: 15.66% - 2025E: 9.14% - 2026E: 8.83% - 2027E: 9.75% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: 74,734 million yuan - 2024A: 86,228 million yuan - 2025E: 93,203 million yuan - 2026E: 100,942 million yuan - 2027E: 110,276 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023A: 19.16% - 2024A: 15.38% - 2025E: 8.09% - 2026E: 8.30% - 2027E: 9.25% [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024A: 68.64 yuan - 2025E: 74.19 yuan - 2026E: 80.35 yuan - 2027E: 87.79 yuan - The corresponding P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are: - 2023A: 25.95 - 2024A: 22.49 - 2025E: 20.81 - 2026E: 19.21 - 2027E: 17.59 [1]

中国白酒行业重点企业调研及运营策略分析报告2025年 本文源自：中赢信合研究网 第1章：中国白酒行业发展综述 19 1.1 白酒行业定义及分类 19 1.1.1 行业概念界定 19 （1）定义 19 （2）行业所属国民经济分类 19 1.1.2 行业产品分类 20 （1）按照不同香型分类 20 （2）按照不同酒精度分类 22 1.1.3 白酒行业数据来源及统计口径说明 22 （1）数据来源 22 （2）统计口径 22 1.2 白酒行业市场环境分析（PEST） 23 1.2.1 行业政策环境分析（P） 23 （1）行业主管部门及管理体制 23 （2）政府管制与调控 24 （3）行业政策法规 26 （4）行业发展规划 27 1.2.2 行业经济环境分析（E） 34 （1）国内GDP增长情况 34 （2）工业增加值增长情况 36 （3）全国固定资产投资情况 38 （4）国内居民收入状况 40 （5）社会消费情况 42 1.2.3 行业社会环境分析（S） 44 （1）人口结构分析 44 （2）居民酒类消费观念 44 （3）反腐倡廉导向 45 1.2.4 行业技术环境分析（T） 47 （1）行业技术发展现状分析 47 ...

Core Insights - Zhenjiu Lidu Group Limited reported a revenue of 7.067 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.1% to 1.324 billion RMB [1][4] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 1.676 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company achieved record revenue in 2024, with figures from 2021 to 2024 being 5.102 billion RMB, 5.856 billion RMB, 7.030 billion RMB, and 7.067 billion RMB, showing a declining growth rate from 112.66% to 0.52% [2][3] - The net profit figures from 2021 to 2024 were 1.032 billion RMB, 1.030 billion RMB, 2.327 billion RMB, and 1.324 billion RMB, indicating significant fluctuations in profitability [3] Factors Affecting Profitability - The decline in net profit for 2024 was attributed to three main factors: changes in the fair value of financial instruments, equity-settled share-based payment expenses, and one-time expenses related to the company's listing [4] - The flagship brand, Zhenjiu, generated revenue of 4.480 billion RMB in 2024, down 2.3% from the previous year, with its revenue share decreasing from 65.2% to 63.4% [4] Brand Performance - Li Du brand revenue increased by 18.3% to 1.313 billion RMB, while Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao brands saw revenue declines, contributing 802 million RMB and 337 million RMB respectively [5] - Zhenjiu's sales volume decreased for the third consecutive year, dropping to 12,284 tons in 2024 from 12,630 tons in the previous year [7] Inventory and Production Capacity - The company's inventory reached a record high of 7.503 billion RMB by the end of 2024, with inventory turnover days increasing to 854.9 days, indicating challenges in sales performance [9] - Zhenjiu Lidu is expanding its production capacity with multiple bases, aiming to strengthen its market position in the premium and high-end baijiu segments [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%. Operating profit was 7.751 billion yuan, up 23.36%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.514 billion yuan, growing by 20.15% [1][2]. - The company plans to launch two new products in 2025 to strengthen its market position in the mid-range price segment, indicating a focus on broadening its consumer base [1][2]. - The chairman emphasized the importance of strategic consistency and long-termism in the company's growth strategy, particularly in the context of recovering banquet demand [2]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 23.58 billion yuan, 26.04 billion yuan, and 28.94 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.51 billion yuan, 6.23 billion yuan, and 7.10 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 10.43 yuan in 2024 to 13.43 yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 16.83 in 2024 to 13.08 in 2026, indicating potential value appreciation [3][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its management and marketing capabilities to sustain growth amid competitive pressures in the industry [2]. - The introduction of new products at accessible price points is part of a strategy to capture a larger market share and cater to diverse consumer preferences [1][2].