白酒股半年报冷思考：珍酒李渡的"失速"与蓄势。 文 | 卖酒狼团队 编 | 南风 8月22日，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡交出了一份看似"失速"的半年报，实现营业收入24.97亿元，经调整净利润6.13亿元。 表面看，这是白酒行业面临挑战的一个缩影，但若细读财报、观察战略动向，却不难发现，这家企业在行业深度调整期中仍展现出较强的韧性与战略定 力，其"基本盘筑牢+创新突围"的双轨策略颇具样本价值。 2025年以来，白酒行业确实深陷价格倒挂与销售疲软的双重困境之中，整体市场氛围持续承压。规模以上白酒企业产量同比下滑，价格倒挂已经不是某个 白酒品牌所面临的问题，而是整个白酒市场中最为普遍的情况。 这背后是消费场景的结构性变迁：政务和商务宴请占比显著下滑，婚宴、家庭消费等虽成为主力，但客单价普遍下降，难以支撑次高端及以上产品的销 量。 同时，头部品牌如茅台、五粮液渠道下沉，加剧了市场竞争，加之年轻消费群体偏好低度、利口化酒饮，传统白酒需求受到进一步冲击。 尽管多家酒企通过推出低度产品、渠道改革等方式积极应对，但短期阵痛恐难消除，行业整体仍处于深度调整期。 在此背景下，珍酒李渡并没有成为例外，同样受到了市场大环境的"冲击 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous revenue pressure, but profitability remains stable, with a gross margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 59.04% due to a higher proportion of revenue from high-margin brands [6] - The company is implementing strict sales controls to manage inventory levels, which has led to a significant decline in revenue across its brands, particularly a 45% decrease in revenue from its main brand, Zhenjiu [7] - The introduction of a new flagship product, "Dazhen," is expected to create a new growth curve for the company, targeting a balance between quality and price [7] - The company is innovating its distribution channels through the "Wanshang Alliance" model, which aims to enhance direct access to consumers while controlling supply quotas to prevent price erosion [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, total revenue was 2.497 billion yuan, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, while net profit was 575 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year [5] - The company's sales and management expense ratios increased to 22.24% and 9.76%, respectively, due to rising unit costs from reduced revenue [6] Brand Performance - Revenue from Zhenjiu decreased by 45% to 1.492 billion yuan, while Li Du's revenue fell by 9% to 611 million yuan, reflecting a focus on mid-range products and key consumption scenarios [7] - Other brands, such as Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, also saw significant revenue declines of 39% and 64%, respectively, due to market conditions [7] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.35, 0.41, and 0.48 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [10] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 5.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.1% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to industry-wide challenges, although the performance of the Li Du brand remained relatively stable [1] Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58% [1] - Revenue breakdown by product for H1 2025: - Zhen Jiu: 1.492 billion yuan (-44.8%) - Li Du: 611 million yuan (-9.4%) - Xiang Jiao: 277 million yuan (-38.7%) - Kai Kou Xiao: 81 million yuan (-63.9%) - Others: 36 million yuan (-54.7%) [1] - The average price per ton for products showed a decline, with Zhen Jiu at 32.3 thousand yuan/ton (-17.0%) and Li Du at 34.9 thousand yuan/ton (-29.1%) [1] - Sales volume for products varied, with Li Du showing a positive growth of 27.8% [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 59.04%, a slight increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Gross margin by product: - Zhen Jiu: 58.3% (-0.9pct) - Li Du: 66.5% (-0.3pct) - Xiang Jiao: 58.7% (-0.1pct) - Kai Kou Xiao: 41.7% (-4.0pct) - Others: 4.4% (-6.8pct) [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 23.02%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in equity incentive expenses [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from distributors and direct sales channels for H1 2025 was 2.197 billion yuan and 300 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 41.8% and 16.6% [1] - The number of distribution partners, experience stores, and retailers at the end of H1 2025 was 3,259, 1,025, and 2,835, with changes of +55, -72, and -499 respectively [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, reported a solid performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, which aligns with market expectations and reflects a stable market foundation [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 59%, marking three consecutive years of growth [4]. - The adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 24.6%, indicating sustained operational quality [4]. - The average price per ton of liquor was 273,700 yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, demonstrating the effectiveness of the company's price stabilization strategy [4]. Group 2: Sales and Market Position - Sales volume of the core brand, Lidu, reached 1,752 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%, reflecting enhanced market recognition [4]. - The company is ranked fourth in the industry in terms of liquor pricing, with a ton price of 270,000 yuan in 2023 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the "Dazhen Zhenjiu" product aimed at diversifying the product lineup, priced at 600 yuan, competes with products priced at 3,000 yuan, catering to consumer demand for high quality at a reasonable price [7]. - The "Wanshang Alliance" model was introduced to restructure the manufacturer-distributor ecosystem, with over 2,000 contracts signed and more than 6,100 potential clients engaged within 100 days of the initiative [9]. - The introduction of the high-end craft beer "Niushi News" at 88 yuan per bottle represents a cross-industry innovation, creating a dual business model of liquor and beer [11]. Group 4: Market Recognition and Future Outlook - The company's transformations, including the successful launch of "Dazhen," the establishment of the "Wanshang Alliance," and the introduction of "Niushi," have garnered recognition from capital markets, with several brokerage firms issuing "buy" ratings [12]. - Investment institutions have shown confidence in the company, as evidenced by a significant stock price increase of over 50% from 6.46 HKD to 10.07 HKD per share between August 1 and August 21, with a trading volume of 3.904 billion yuan [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, with revenue at 2.5 billion yuan, net profit at 570 million yuan, and adjusted net profit at 610 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 39.6%, 23.5%, and 39.8% respectively [1][5] - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health by controlling sales pace, while leveraging consumption scenarios such as weddings and graduations to counteract market downturns [1][5] - The introduction of new products under the "Da Zhen" brand and the alliance model is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in H2 2025, with a focus on price management capabilities [1][5] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to 1.41 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025 [1][5] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 59.0%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in high-end product revenue [1][5] - The revenue breakdown by brand for H1 2025 shows that "Zhen Jiu" generated 1.49 billion yuan, "Li Du" 610 million yuan, "Xiang Jiao" 280 million yuan, and "Kai Kou Xiao" 80 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, and -63.9% [1][5] - The company’s total market capitalization is 3.34 billion yuan, with a current share price of 9.86 HKD [2] Future Outlook - The "Da Zhen" project has signed over 2,100 clients, with expectations for significant revenue contributions in H2 2025 [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's ability to manage pricing and channels effectively to enhance brand image and market position [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.497 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year [2] - The company launched several new products in H1 2025, including Zhen 50 and Li Du Gao Liang 1965, aiming to enhance market presence and sales through a new alliance model [3] - The revenue breakdown by product shows significant declines, with Zhen Jiu and other brands experiencing revenue drops of 45%, 9%, 39%, and 64% respectively [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company expects revenues to decline by 20.4% in 2025, followed by growth of 11.7% in 2026 and 16.8% in 2027 [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decrease by 1.9% in 2025, but increase by 19.6% in 2026 and 28.4% in 2027 [5] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.0%, while sales and distribution expenses decreased by 38.5% year-on-year [4] Product and Pricing Strategy - Revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products in H1 2025 was 580 million, 980 million, and 940 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year declines of 47%, 42%, and 31% [4] - The gross margin for high-end products decreased due to internal structural adjustments, while mid-range and low-end products saw margin improvements due to cost optimizations [4] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has established a significant network of over 2,100 alliance partners for its new product line, which is expected to contribute positively starting in H2 2025 [3] - The report indicates that the company is leveraging its experience in high-end liquor operations to enhance the performance of its new product offerings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the company, Zhenjiu Lidu, reflects the broader challenges faced by the liquor industry, with significant declines in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic uncertainties and reduced demand for business and gifting occasions [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, down 39.3% [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that Zhenjiu generated 1.492 billion yuan (59.7% of total revenue), Lidu contributed 611 million yuan (24.5%), Xiangjiao brought in 277 million yuan (11.1%), and Kaikouxiao accounted for 81 million yuan (3.2%) [2]. - Despite the overall revenue decline, Lidu's sales volume increased by approximately 27.79%, with a revenue share rising from 16.3% to 24.5% [3]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59%, marking three consecutive years of growth [3]. Market Strategy and Product Development - The company is implementing a dual-channel growth strategy, expanding its distribution network to include key opinion leaders with strong social networks [4]. - New product launches, such as "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 600 yuan per bottle, aim to target the high-end market, while the "Niu Shi" beer is positioned as a super premium product at 88 yuan per bottle [5]. - The "Wanshang Alliance" initiative aims to recruit over 10,000 partners to create a community of shared interests and trust between manufacturers and distributors [5]. Market Response - Following the announcement of new strategies and products, the stock price of Zhenjiu Lidu surged by 47.38% since August, indicating positive market sentiment [6]. - Analysts suggest that the innovative marketing and product strategies could potentially lead to significant revenue contributions, although uncertainties remain regarding the effectiveness of these initiatives in the current market environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Zhenjiu Lidu, known as the "first stock of liquor" in Hong Kong, reveals a significant decline in revenue and net profit, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the liquor industry amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, down 39.3% [1]. - Zhenjiu's revenue was 1.492 billion yuan, accounting for 59.7% of total revenue, while Lidu's revenue was 611 million yuan, representing 24.5% [1]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59%, marking three consecutive years of growth [2]. Market Strategy - The company is adjusting its growth strategy by controlling sales pace to maintain healthy channel inventory levels, which has led to a 27.79% increase in sales volume for Lidu despite a 9.4% revenue decline [2]. - The introduction of new products, such as "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 600 yuan per bottle, aims to create a "super product" that competes with higher-end offerings [5]. - The "Wanshang Alliance" initiative seeks to recruit over 10,000 partners to form a profit-sharing community, enhancing trust between manufacturers and distributors [5]. Channel Dynamics - The number of distribution channels decreased to 7,119, with a notable increase in cooperative partners, indicating a shift in the distribution strategy [3]. - The company has implemented a dual-channel growth strategy, targeting key opinion leaders in regions with high social drinking frequency [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry has been experiencing a downward trend since the first quarter of the year, with no signs of recovery as of May [4]. - The market's response to the company's recent initiatives has been positive, with a 47.38% increase in stock price since August [5].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing multiple pressures, leading to a "loss of momentum" as a new norm. However,珍酒李渡 (Zhenjiu Lidu) has shown resilience with its performance in the first half of 2025, meeting market expectations and reflecting a stable market foundation [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025,珍酒李渡 achieved revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The company's gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 59%, marking three consecutive years of growth. The adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 24.6% [4]. - The average price per ton of liquor was 273,700 yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of the company's price stabilization strategy [4]. Group 2: Market Strategies - The company has focused on four key areas: quality enhancement, channel innovation, brand building, and team development, solidifying its market foundation [3]. - The launch of the "大珍·珍酒" (Da Zhen Zhenjiu) product line has diversified the product portfolio, targeting consumers seeking high quality at a reasonable price, with sales success in major cities [9]. - The "万商联盟" (Wanshang Alliance) model aims to recruit over 10,000 alliance merchants, creating a nationwide distribution network and establishing a profit-sharing relationship with partners [11]. Group 3: Growth Potential - The introduction of the high-end craft beer "牛市News" (Bull Market News) represents a cross-industry innovation, aiming to create a dual business model of liquor and beer, thus enhancing brand influence [14]. - The company's series of transformations have gained recognition from the capital market, with several brokerage firms issuing "buy" ratings, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth potential [16]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the positive performance,珍酒李渡's stock price surged from 6.46 HKD to 10.07 HKD per share, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 50% within a short period [19].

Core Viewpoint - The overall environment for the liquor industry is bleak, with significant inventory pressure and price inversion issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2][9]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company "Zhenjiu Lid" issued a shocking profit warning, expecting revenue to decline by 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders to drop by 23% to 24% [3]. - The company's financial trajectory shows a stark decline from a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan in 2023, which grew by 20.06%, to a stagnation in 2024 with a slight increase of 0.52% to 7.067 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan [4]. - The flagship brand "Zhenjiu" saw a revenue decrease of 2.3% to 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, with its revenue share dropping to 63.4% [5]. Inventory and Market Challenges - The inventory balance surged from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, indicating severe sales difficulties, with inventory turnover days extending from 517 days to 855 days [5][6]. - The liquor industry is facing widespread challenges, including reduced consumption, high inventory levels, and price inversions due to economic downturns and policy adjustments [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a high-end strategy by launching a new flagship product "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 yuan per bottle, aiming to fill a market gap and achieve significant sales targets [7]. - The company is diversifying into the beer market with the launch of a premium beer called "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end craft beer segment [8]. - The company has engaged celebrity endorsements, including appointing Yao Anna as a brand ambassador, to enhance brand value and appeal to younger demographics [9].