8月22日晚，珍酒李渡发布2025半年报，实现营业收入24.97亿元，经调整净利润6.13亿元。 业内人士分析，该业绩符合市场预期，相较于部分酒企业绩2024年开始调整，珍酒李渡调整时间相对延后，反映其市场基本盘稳固。今年以来，公司打 造"大珍·珍酒"和推出"万商联盟创富论坛"，创新推动产品和商业模式变革，引发行业广泛关注。 行业调整期筑牢"基本盘" 上半年，珍酒李渡持续在品质提升、渠道创新、品牌塑造和团队建设四大领域深耕，筑牢市场发展"基本盘"。 珍酒李渡部分产品图 万商联盟创富论坛现场 其次，模式创新，重构厂商生态。面对行业价格倒挂、渠道利润压缩、动销放缓等挑战，珍酒李渡创新推出万商联盟模式，以大珍为载体，近年计划招募上 万家联盟商，构建"卖酒的全国高速公路网络"，并通过设置准入门槛，保持短期、中期和长期收益，以及严格价格管控等，与联盟商形成利益共同体，重塑 厂商信任链。目前，项目开展百天，已吸引全国6100多名意向客户考察，签约超2000家，阶段性成果明显。 行业调整期，珍酒李渡通过三大组合拳，有效激发增长潜力，为行业发展注入新活力。 大珍·珍酒 首先，超级产品上新，产品布局多元化。今年6月，珍酒李渡顺 ...

报表出清，大珍寻机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司收入/净利润/经调整净利润分别为 25.0 亿元 /5.7 亿元/6.1 亿元，同比-39.6%/-23.5%/-39.8%。25H1 公司报表侧开始出清， 珍酒严控销售节奏维护渠道健康，李渡依托婚宴、升学宴等消费场景逆周期对 冲，毛利率保持稳定，费用短期刚性但后续有望削减，利润率侧预计继续保持。 展望 25H2，大珍新品推出与联盟体形式有望贡献重要增量，后续重点关注公司 价格管理能力，若整体得当，大珍有望成为填补珍 15、珍 30 价格带的重要利 器。考虑到公司面临外部压力，我们下调 25-27 年经调整净利润至 14.1 亿元、 15.4 亿元、18.8 亿元，对应 25 年 21.8 倍 PE，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：9.86 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3389 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 3389 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.1 | | R ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 22 日公司披露 25 年中期业绩，期内实现营收 24.97 亿元，同比-39.6%；归母净利 5.75 亿元，同比-23.5%；经调整净 利 6.13 亿元，同比-39.8%。 经营分析 分价位来看：25H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 5.8/9.8/9.4 亿元，同比 -47%/-42%/-31% ，毛利率分别 -2.2/+2.3/+2.7pct；高端价位毛利率回落主要源于内部结构调 整，次高端及以下价位毛利率提升主要源于自产基酒逐步替代+包 材等成本优化+低毛利产品销量下滑致使内部结构优化。 从报表质量看：1）25H1 整体毛利率同比+0.3pct 至 59.0%，销售 及经销开支占比同比+0.4pct 至 22.2%（绝对值同比-38.5%），行 政开支占比同比+3.1pct 至 9.8%（绝对值同比-11.3%）；经调整净 利率-0.1pct 至 24.6%；2）25H1 末应计返利/预收客户款项余额分 别 4.9/14.3 亿元，较 24 年末-1.9/-3.3 亿元。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司 25-27 年收入分别-20.4%/+11.7% ...

8月22日晚间，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡发布半年报。 报告期内，公司实现收入实现营业收入24.97亿元，同比减少39.6%；经调整净利润6.13亿元，同比减少 39.3%。 这份略显"失速"的业绩，也是当前白酒行业普遍面临挑战的一个写照。公司不久前发布了2025年上半年 业绩盈利预警公告，表示业绩主要受上半年宏观经济不确定性持续导致的商务、宴请和送礼场景减少影 响。同时，公司主动调整发展节奏，放缓增长速度，积极为市场纾困，确保长期稳定发展。 尽管市场承压，记者注意到，从打造个人IP，到跨界推出啤酒产品，再到发起与经销商深度绑定的"万 商联盟"，公司董事长吴向东却前所未有地活跃在公众视野。 从早年的"川酒王"到金六福，再到打造酒类流通第一股华致酒行，直至收购珍酒李渡，已在酒行业浸淫 三十年的吴向东，始终保持着"连续创业者"的节奏。他亲历多轮行业周期，而这一次，他的又能否带领 公司穿越低谷？ 珍酒收入承压，李渡放量稳盘，整体毛利率却逆势微增 而从吨价来看，虽然整体吨价27.37万元/吨，同比下滑6.6%，但在今年上半年公司调整发货节奏，主动 控量稳价，相较于2023年的27万元/吨有一定增长。 业内人士指出，该 ...

8月22日晚间，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡发布半年报。 尽管市场承压，记者注意到，从打造个人IP，到跨界推出啤酒产品，再到发起与经销商深度绑定的"万 商联盟"，公司董事长吴向东却前所未有地活跃在公众视野。 报告期内，公司实现收入实现营业收入24.97亿元，同比减少39.6%；经调整净利润6.13亿元，同比减少 39.3%。 这份略显"失速"的业绩，也是当前白酒行业普遍面临挑战的一个写照。公司不久前发布了2025年上半年 业绩盈利预警公告，表示业绩主要受上半年宏观经济不确定性持续导致的商务、宴请和送礼场景减少影 响。同时，公司主动调整发展节奏，放缓增长速度，积极为市场纾困，确保长期稳定发展。 珍酒收入承压，李渡放量稳盘，整体毛利率却逆势微增 分产品来看，珍酒收入14.92亿元，吨价32.34万元，收入占比59.7%；李渡收入6.11亿元，吨价34.89万 元，收入占比24.5%；湘窖收入2.77亿元，吨价58.59万元，收入占比11.1%；开口笑收入0.81亿元，吨价 13.72万元，收入占比3.2%。 对于核心产品珍酒的收入下滑，公司表示，主要是由于白酒消费需求不振及为维持健康的渠道库存水平 而严格控制销售节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall environment for the liquor industry is bleak, with significant inventory pressure and price inversion issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2][9]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company "Zhenjiu Lid" issued a shocking profit warning, expecting revenue to decline by 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders to drop by 23% to 24% [3]. - The company's financial trajectory shows a stark decline from a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan in 2023, which grew by 20.06%, to a stagnation in 2024 with a slight increase of 0.52% to 7.067 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan [4]. - The flagship brand "Zhenjiu" saw a revenue decrease of 2.3% to 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, with its revenue share dropping to 63.4% [5]. Inventory and Market Challenges - The inventory balance surged from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, indicating severe sales difficulties, with inventory turnover days extending from 517 days to 855 days [5][6]. - The liquor industry is facing widespread challenges, including reduced consumption, high inventory levels, and price inversions due to economic downturns and policy adjustments [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a high-end strategy by launching a new flagship product "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 yuan per bottle, aiming to fill a market gap and achieve significant sales targets [7]. - The company is diversifying into the beer market with the launch of a premium beer called "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end craft beer segment [8]. - The company has engaged celebrity endorsements, including appointing Yao Anna as a brand ambassador, to enhance brand value and appeal to younger demographics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policies affecting liquor consumption, particularly in business and social settings [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 7.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.1% to about 1.324 billion yuan [3]. - The company's inventory has been on the rise, with the balance increasing from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 5.766 billion yuan over four years. The inventory turnover days increased from 517 days in 2020 to 855 days in 2024 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - To address the decline in liquor demand and promote business growth, the company has implemented several strategic measures, including: 1. Launching a new flagship product in June 2025 to tackle industry challenges and meet demand, expected to contribute significantly to sales in the second half of the year [2]. 2. Strengthening the competitive position of existing flagship products through detailed sales policies and enhancing market penetration in core areas [2]. 3. Capturing incremental consumer demand by exploring emerging consumption trends and scenarios, such as mid-range and premium products for events like birthdays and weddings [2]. New Product Development - The company plans to introduce a new super beer named "Bull Market" on August 8, aiming to promote a new lifestyle [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, focusing on inventory reduction and channel stability amidst challenging market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue for H1 2025 to be between 2.4-2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3%-41.9% [1] - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 570-580 million yuan, down 23%-24% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be between 610-620 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 39%-40% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively reducing market supply of its products to stabilize channel profits, particularly for its flagship products, while focusing on enhancing sales of new products [1][2] - A new strategic flagship product, "Da Zhen," was launched at a price of 888 yuan to fill a market gap and target group purchases, which is expected to partially offset declines in main products [2] - The company is increasing investments in key regional markets such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong to strengthen its market position and competitiveness [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The company is recognized as a rare player in the sauce liquor market, ranking among the top three in Guizhou, with strong long-term growth potential [3] - The management team possesses extensive industry experience and marketing capabilities, which are expected to support future performance [3] - The product lineup is well-structured, with various price points and product types aimed at capturing market share during favorable industry conditions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is focusing on solidifying its market foundation and inventory reduction, with expectations for the new product "Da Zhen" to create new growth opportunities [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.34/0.35/0.39 yuan, reflecting a more cautious outlook while maintaining a target price of 10 HKD [4] - The company is maintaining a "strong buy" rating, indicating confidence in its strategic direction and market resilience [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in revenue and profits in the first half of 2025, with total revenue projected to be between 2.4 to 2.55 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% to 41.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 570 to 580 million HKD, down 23% to 24% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and stabilizing its distribution channels, with a strategic shift towards launching new products to mitigate the impact of declining sales [8]. - The introduction of a flagship product, "Da Zhen," priced at 888 HKD, aims to capture market share and enhance profitability through targeted marketing strategies [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 5.032 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.8% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 1.151 billion HKD, a decrease of 31.31% compared to the previous year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.34 HKD, down from previous estimates [8]. Market Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its market strategy by reducing supply and focusing on core products to stabilize its market position [8]. - There is an emphasis on expanding market presence in key regions such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong, while also exploring new consumer trends with product diversification [8]. - The management team is experienced and has a strong understanding of market dynamics, which is expected to support long-term growth despite short-term challenges [8].

Core Viewpoint - The differentiation in the sauce liquor sector is intensifying, with leading companies benefiting from increased market concentration and strategic initiatives aimed at high-end product offerings and ESG compliance [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Since 2022, the liquor industry has entered an adjustment phase, leading to accelerated exit of small producers and creating opportunities for leading companies to gain market share [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory control, channel optimization, and a strategy centered on "high-end + sauce liquor benefits + ESG" to enhance its competitive edge [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating net cash flow increased by 116% year-on-year to 780 million HKD, indicating improved cash flow and operational efficiency [2]. - The company declared a dividend of 0.21 HKD per share, with a payout ratio rising to 39%, reflecting significant improvement in shareholder returns [2]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.6 percentage points to 58.6%, with core products maintaining stable pricing amidst industry-wide price reductions [2]. Group 3: Brand and Market Position - The company holds over 100,000 tons of quality base liquor, ranking third among Guizhou liquor producers, which creates a natural barrier for high-end product supply [1]. - Revenue from the core product "Zhen Jiu" was 4.48 billion HKD, down 2%, while "Li Du" revenue grew by 18% to 1.31 billion HKD, driven by a 25% increase in volume [2]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - The company's current valuation is at a historical low with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8, significantly below its A-share peers and the average of the Hong Kong consumer sector [3]. - The company is expected to improve its operational efficiency and expand its product matrix, which will contribute to performance enhancement and valuation recovery by 2025 [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.5 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.92 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.44, 0.49, and 0.57 HKD [4].