Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with total revenue and net profit for 2024 reaching 115.46 billion and 34.12 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [10] - The company is currently in a phase of significant growth, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the high-end segment [10] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% and a net profit increase slightly lower than revenue growth for 2025, indicating confidence in sustained momentum [10] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rates for domestic and international markets were 13.32% and 27.37% respectively, with the proportion of international revenue increasing by 1.73 percentage points [2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates were 8.45% for domestic and 19.04% for international markets, with the international revenue share rising by 1.38 percentage points [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 74.74% and 29.55%, showing a slight decline of 3.60 and 1.50 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow increased by 2.37% in 2024 and by 42.5% in Q1 2025, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.1%, 9.6%, and 9.7% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 7.9%, 9.4%, and 9.5% [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.95, 3.23, and 3.54 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.05, 14.67, and 13.40 [4]

白酒深度调整期，山西汾酒延续了"汾酒速度"，交出了一份逆势上扬的成绩单。 4月3 0日，山西汾酒披露2 0 2 4年年度报告和2 0 2 5年一季度报。财报显示，2 0 2 4年全年汾酒实 现 营 业 收 入 3 6 0 . 11 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 1 2 . 7 9% ， 稳 居 行 业 前 三 ； 归 属 于 上 市 公 司 股 东 的 净 利 润 1 2 2 . 4 3亿元，同比增长1 7 . 2 9%。 2 0 2 5年一季度也表现不俗，营业收入1 6 5 . 2 2亿元，同比增长7 . 7 2%，净利润6 6 . 4 8亿元，同比 增长6 . 1 5%。 2 0 2 4年的白酒行业，饱受"产能过剩" "价格倒挂" "库存高压"的压力。当多数酒企承受阵痛之 时，山西汾酒营收与净利润双增长的成绩，颇为不易。 穿越周期的韧性背后，是汾酒通过产品结构、市场等维度的坚实筑基，实现高端化及全国化 布局的进一步突围。随着清香型白酒不断攀高，市场持续扩容，在汾酒的带领下，清香大时 代已全面开启。 高端产品成功卡位 玻汾稳固"霸主地位" 在市场持续消化能力不足，营销刺激效果减弱，渠道库存压力增大，产品动销频 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Laobai Ganjiu for 2024 shows a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit of 787 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by an optimized product structure with increased sales of mid-to-high-end liquor and ongoing cost reduction initiatives [1] - The company set a revenue target of 5.78 billion yuan for 2024 but fell short, achieving only 5.358 billion yuan, which is a significant slowdown compared to previous years [1] - Historical revenue figures from 2021 to 2023 were 4.027 billion yuan, 4.653 billion yuan, and 5.257 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.93%, 15.54%, and 12.98% respectively [1] Product Performance - The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan reached 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%, while products below 100 yuan generated 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09% [2] - The main revenue contributor is the Hengshui Laobai Ganjiu series, which generated approximately 2.59 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 48% of total revenue [3] - The highest revenue growth was seen in the Kongfu Family Wine series, which achieved approximately 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.12% [3] - The only product series with a revenue decline was the Bancheng Shaoguo series, which saw a revenue drop of 10.33% to approximately 858 million yuan [3] Market Performance - The primary sales region for Laobai Ganjiu in 2024 was Hebei, contributing 3.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.61%, accounting for nearly 60% of total revenue [3] - The second-largest market was Hunan, where revenue reached approximately 1.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.30%, with a high gross margin of 81.06% [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is currently discussing plans for national expansion and product management, with no specific details disclosed yet [5] - Laobai Ganjiu has been focusing on mid-to-high-end transformation, particularly with the Wuling wine brand, which has shown good growth despite a challenging market environment [5] - The gross margin for Wuling wine reached 81.06%, significantly higher than the overall product gross margin of 66.15% [6] Cost Management - The company successfully implemented cost control measures, with total operating costs kept within 4.366 billion yuan, including operating costs of 1.824 billion yuan and expenses of 1.654 billion yuan [6] - For 2025, Laobai Ganjiu has set a more conservative revenue target of 5.47 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 2.1% [6] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.36%, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.91% [6]

Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a downturn in early 2024, with some second and third-tier companies facing significant challenges, including substantial profit declines and even losses, while top-tier companies maintain stability [2][4] - The overall growth of the industry is slowing, with the liquor sector's stock prices dropping over 12% since November of the previous year [2] Market Dynamics - The companies that previously saw rapid growth due to price increases and channel expansions are now under pressure from both performance and inventory challenges [4] - The financial attributes of liquor have impacted both investors and distributors, with first-tier liquor prices remaining stable, while lower-tier brands struggle to find a compelling narrative [5] Inventory and Pricing - By the first three quarters of 2024, the inventory levels of listed liquor companies approached the total for 2023, nearly doubling since 2019 [8] - Major brands like Moutai have had to lower their wholesale prices from around 2600 yuan to approximately 2200 yuan per bottle, while still maintaining profitability due to a lower factory price [8] Consumer Trends - The main consumer demographic for liquor is shifting, with younger generations (born between 1985-1994 and post-1995) becoming the new primary consumers, accounting for 34% and 18% respectively [10] - Despite a general decline in consumption across other sectors, the young liquor market has grown to 400 billion yuan, with a potential consumer base of 490 million [10] Changing Preferences - Young consumers are increasingly resistant to traditional liquor culture, associating it with negative connotations and preferring lower alcohol content beverages [14][20] - Many liquor companies are responding to these changing preferences by introducing lower-alcohol products, but these still may not appeal to younger consumers accustomed to sweeter drinks [14] Marketing Strategies - Liquor brands are attempting to modernize their image through cross-industry collaborations, such as partnerships with ice cream and coffee brands, to attract younger consumers [19] - However, these marketing efforts often fail to create lasting brand loyalty, as the core product remains unchanged [22] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is entering a new cycle characterized by market segmentation, consumption upgrades, and structural transformation [22] - The perception of liquor is being redefined, with younger consumers not abandoning it but rather seeking to understand and adapt it to their preferences [22]