证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 今世缘（603369.SH） 优于大市 2025Q2 报表释放需求压力，主动降速为渠道纾压 中报释放需求压力，2025Q2 收入同比下降 30%。2025H1 公司实现营业总收入 69.5 亿元/同比-4.8%，归母净利润 22.3 亿元/同比-9.5%。其中 25Q2 营业总收入 18.5 亿元/同比-29.7%，归母净利润 5.85 亿元/同比-37.1%。 2025Q2特A类及以上产品收入占比95.7%，同比提升0.22pcts。分产品看，2025Q2 特 A+类收入 11.42 亿元/同比-32.1%，特 A 类收入 5.83 亿元/同比-28.1%，A 类 及以下收入 0.77 亿元/同比-41%，国缘品牌表现好于其他。第二季度受政策影响， 省内市场政商务场景受损较多，预计四开/对开（特 A+类）动销有所承压，公司 以去库挺价为主；大众消费场景跟随减少，淡雅/单开（特 A 类）产品势能支撑 下仍有少量动销，预计下滑幅度相对较少。分渠道看，2025Q2 直销（含团购） 收入 0.11 亿元/去年同期-0.17 亿元，批发代理收入 17.91 亿元/同比-31. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinshiyuan, is experiencing a stable stock performance and is actively enhancing its marketing strategies while pursuing national expansion in the competitive liquor industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of July 29, the stock price of Jinshiyuan closed at 40.04 yuan, up 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 363 million yuan [1] - The intraday price fluctuation ranged from 39.60 yuan to 40.08 yuan, with a volatility of 1.20% [1] Group 2: Business Overview - The company operates in the liquor industry, focusing on the production and sales of baijiu, with brands such as "Guoyuan" and "Jinshiyuan" [1] - Jinshiyuan is a representative liquor enterprise in Jiangsu, primarily targeting the mid-to-high-end baijiu market [1] Group 3: Marketing and Strategy - Recent marketing efforts have drawn industry attention due to a controversial advertisement perceived as a jab at competitor Yanghe's product strategy; the company clarified that the ad was not officially released [1] - Jinshiyuan plans to invest 888 million yuan in advertising for 2024, utilizing sponsorships of sports events and concerts to enhance brand visibility [1] Group 4: Financial and Strategic Goals - On July 29, there was a net outflow of 11.14 million yuan in main funds [1] - The company is advancing its national strategy, with projected revenue growth of 27.37% from outside Jiangsu in 2024, although this still accounts for less than 10% of total revenue [1] - In a recent strategic meeting, the company set a goal to establish the Guoyuan brand as a well-known baijiu brand around Jiangsu within five years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a slight decline in production but an increase in sales revenue and profit, with the company Jiuziyuan showing significant growth in revenue and profit in 2024 [1][2]. Industry Overview - In 2024, the liquor industry had a total production of 4.1447 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.80%, while sales revenue reached 796.384 billion yuan, an increase of 5.30%, and profits were 250.865 billion yuan, up by 7.76% [1]. - The overall market is facing pressure from major brands expanding their distribution channels, impacting regional brands significantly [3]. Company Performance - Jiuziyuan achieved a revenue of approximately 11.544 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.32%, and a net profit of about 3.412 billion yuan, up by 8.80% [2][3]. - The company’s quarterly revenue for 2024 was approximately 4.671 billion yuan, 2.633 billion yuan, 2.636 billion yuan, and 1.604 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a slowdown in revenue and profit growth [2][3]. Product Analysis - Jiuziyuan's revenue from premium products priced above 300 yuan grew by approximately 15.17%, while products priced between 100-300 yuan saw a growth of about 16.61% [3][4]. - Products priced above 100 yuan accounted for approximately 93.88% of total revenue, all achieving double-digit growth [3]. Market Performance - Revenue from various regions showed growth, with the Huai'an region achieving approximately 2.235 billion yuan (up 12.31%), and the Suzhou region reaching about 1.924 billion yuan (up 21.21%) [4]. - The company’s traditional wholesale and agency channels generated 112.05 billion yuan, accounting for 97.06% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 14.19% [5]. Production Insights - Jiuziyuan's production volume in 2024 was 53,548.59 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 4.03%, while sales volume reached 55,834.30 kiloliters, up by 19.54% [6]. - The company has faced challenges in increasing its market share outside its home province, with external revenue remaining around 5% [6][7]. Strategic Goals - Jiuziyuan aims to achieve a revenue target of 15 billion yuan by 2025, focusing on expanding its presence in provincial markets and enhancing product structure [7]. - The company is investing in capacity enhancement projects, including a 12 billion yuan investment in facility upgrades [7]. Competitive Landscape - The liquor market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Jiuziyuan needing to enhance its brand recognition and product quality to meet consumer demands [8].

Industry Overview - In 2024, the production of large-scale liquor enterprises is expected to reach 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is projected to increase to 796.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, indicating a unique trend of "declining volume but increasing profit" [2] - By the first half of 2025, 59.7% of liquor companies reported a decline in operating profit, and 50.9% experienced a contraction in revenue, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, up 10% year-on-year, highlighting significant challenges in the industry [2] Key Trends - The industry is witnessing a simultaneous trend of "contraction and concentration," with smaller companies exiting the market and leading firms shifting focus from "high-speed growth" to "steady development" [3] - A "channel revolution" is underway, with major companies moving towards direct consumer engagement through new sales channels like online platforms and instant retail, indicating a shift in power from distributors to brands [4] - Consumer demand is evolving, driven by younger consumers, leading to product upgrades towards lower alcohol content and diverse flavors, with major brands launching new products to cater to these trends [5] Company Performance - **Kweichow Moutai**: Aims for a 9% revenue growth by 2025, with a first-quarter revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, up 11.07%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56%, demonstrating strong execution of its strategic goals [6][7] - **Wuliangye**: Targets revenue growth in line with macroeconomic conditions, reporting a first-quarter revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, up 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80%, with ongoing channel reforms [6][8] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: Focuses on low-alcohol products, with a first-quarter revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, up 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41%, indicating a strong market position in lower alcohol segments [6][9] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: Reports a first-quarter revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, up 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15%, with ongoing efforts in national expansion and product innovation [6][10] - **Guojiao**: Achieves a first-quarter revenue of 5.099 billion yuan, up 9.17%, and a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27%, driven by a focus on the wedding market [6][12] Strategic Shifts - The industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," with companies focusing on refining existing markets rather than pursuing aggressive growth [17] - A shift from "channel-driven" to "consumer-driven" strategies is evident, with companies prioritizing direct consumer engagement and enhancing consumer experiences [18] - The trend is moving from "high alcohol content" to "low and diverse products," with major brands launching lower alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - Companies are increasingly emphasizing "long-term value" over short-term performance, with a focus on cultural branding and sustainable growth strategies [21] - The shift from "national expansion" to "regional deepening" is becoming a survival strategy for many companies, focusing on local market penetration and brand recognition [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 CNY [1] Core Views - The company is actively pursuing growth strategies during a challenging industry phase, focusing on optimizing its organizational structure and enhancing execution efficiency [7] - The company has established itself as a leader in the 100-500 CNY price range within its home province, with ongoing opportunities for market expansion [7] - The company is making significant strides in its V series and expanding its presence in markets outside its home province, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region [7] - The company has shown resilience in maintaining stable pricing and strong sales performance during the seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in banquet events during the May Day holiday [7] - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected total revenue of 11,546 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,546 million CNY, 12,578 million CNY, 13,641 million CNY, and 14,695 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.3%, 8.9%, 8.5%, and 7.7% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3,412 million CNY in 2024A, with growth rates of 8.8%, 6.9%, 7.8%, and 7.8% for the following years [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.74 CNY for 2024A, increasing to 3.40 CNY by 2027E [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 17 in 2024A to 14 in 2027E, indicating potential value for investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [1] Core Views - The company is actively pursuing growth strategies during a challenging industry phase, focusing on optimizing its organizational structure and enhancing execution efficiency [7] - The company has established itself as a leader in the 100-500 yuan price range within its home province, with ongoing efforts to expand market share and explore growth opportunities in both domestic and provincial markets [7] - The company is making significant strides in its V series and expanding its presence in provincial markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth [7] - The company has shown resilience in maintaining stable pricing and operational performance, with a notable increase in banquet events during the May Day holiday [7] - The report forecasts steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 11,546 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,546 million yuan, 12,578 million yuan, 13,641 million yuan, and 14,695 million yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.3%, 8.9%, 8.5%, and 7.7% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,412 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 4,235 million yuan by 2027E, with growth rates of 8.8%, 6.9%, 7.8%, and 7.8% for the respective years [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.74 yuan in 2024A, rising to 3.40 yuan by 2027E [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 17 in 2024A to 14 in 2027E, indicating potential value for investors [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jinshiyuan Company Overview - Jinshiyuan is a leading liquor company in Jiangsu, with projected revenue of 11.546 billion yuan and profit of 3.412 billion yuan for 2024, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% in revenue and 18% in profit over the past 11 years [2][6][10] - The company has three main brands: Guoyuan, Jinshiyuan, and Gaogou, with over 90% of revenue coming from high-end products priced above 100 yuan [2][8] Industry Insights - The liquor market in Jiangsu is approximately 60 billion yuan, with Jinshiyuan holding about 10% market share, while Yanghe holds around 40% [16] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of about 10% from 2025 to 2027, with profit growth slightly lower at around 9% [3][20] Financial Performance - Jinshiyuan's operating cash flow has maintained a compound growth rate of about 17% from 2019 to 2024, with a dividend payout ratio increasing from 30% in 2014 to 44% in 2024 [10] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly in 2024 due to channel policy adjustments, but net profit margin remains stable [2][9] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence both within Jiangsu and in surrounding provinces, implementing a strategy of deepening penetration in core markets while also targeting new areas [2][18] - Jinshiyuan's product structure is evolving, with a focus on high-end products and a significant increase in the share of mid-to-high-end products [9][12] Competitive Positioning - Jinshiyuan is positioned in a competitive landscape against Yanghe, with a strategy of differentiated competition, particularly in the high-end segment [15] - The company has seen a narrowing gap in revenue compared to Yanghe, with the revenue ratio improving from 1:2.3 in 2019 to 1:1.2 in 2024 [16][17] Organizational Changes - Recent organizational adjustments include the restructuring of the strategic department and the establishment of several new business units to enhance operational efficiency [19] Brand Marketing and Consumer Trends - Jinshiyuan's marketing strategy leverages its cultural heritage and has seen increased advertising expenditures since 2017, focusing on its three main brands [14] - The V3 product, priced over 600 yuan, has shown positive sales trends, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products [22] Future Outlook - The company aims to reach a revenue target of 15 billion yuan as part of its long-term strategic plan, with a focus on maintaining steady growth and improving market share [6][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with total revenue and net profit for 2024 reaching 115.46 billion and 34.12 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [10] - The company is currently in a phase of significant growth, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the high-end segment [10] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% and a net profit increase slightly lower than revenue growth for 2025, indicating confidence in sustained momentum [10] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rates for domestic and international markets were 13.32% and 27.37% respectively, with the proportion of international revenue increasing by 1.73 percentage points [2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates were 8.45% for domestic and 19.04% for international markets, with the international revenue share rising by 1.38 percentage points [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 74.74% and 29.55%, showing a slight decline of 3.60 and 1.50 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow increased by 2.37% in 2024 and by 42.5% in Q1 2025, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.1%, 9.6%, and 9.7% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 7.9%, 9.4%, and 9.5% [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.95, 3.23, and 3.54 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.05, 14.67, and 13.40 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Jinshiyuan Wine Industry Co., Ltd. achieved record highs in revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating strong growth momentum in the company [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.32% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 2.867 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.37% increase year-on-year [1] Product Segmentation - Jinshiyuan has three major brands: "Guo Yuan," "Jin Shiyuan," and "Gao Gou" - Revenue by product category for 2024: - Special A+ (above 300 yuan): 7.491 billion yuan, +15.17% - Special A (100-300 yuan): 3.347 billion yuan, +16.61% - A (50-100 yuan): 419 million yuan, +1.95% - B (20-50 yuan): 142 million yuan, -11.09% - C and D (below 20 yuan): 74 million yuan, -14.57% [2] Sales Channels - In 2024, wholesale and agency sales generated 11.205 billion yuan, while direct sales (including group purchases) contributed 273 million yuan - The number of distributors increased to 1,228, with a net addition of 294 [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth was observed in both domestic and international markets - In Jiangsu province, revenue from various districts showed growth, with notable increases in Huai'an (12.31%) and Suzhong (21.21%) - The company achieved 926 million yuan in revenue from outside Jiangsu, a 27.37% increase year-on-year [3] Market Strategy - The growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the domestic market and high-end products like Guo Yuan - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in provinces such as Shandong, Anhui, Henan, and Zhejiang, with expectations for continued growth in these regions [4] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% and a net profit increase slightly lower than revenue growth - The company has set strategic goals to ensure economic indicators exceed industry averages and to enhance production capacity and market operations [1][4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the Chinese liquor industry, focusing on major brands such as Wuliangye and Moutai, as well as other products like 1573 and Zhenjiu [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - Post-Spring Festival, both Wuliangye and Moutai have shown strong sales performance, with inventory levels remaining low, around one month for some distributors [2][3][4][5]. - The overall inventory for Wuliangye is reported to be stable, with a return rate of approximately 50% of last year's sales volume [2][3][4]. - The product 1573 has seen a slight increase in sales of about 10% compared to last year, although it still faces some decline in overall performance [4][5][6]. - Zhenjiu's sales have not met expectations, with a return rate of only 25% against a target of 30% [5][6][7]. Pricing and Inventory Management - Wuliangye has maintained price stability, which has helped build confidence among distributors [3][4][5]. - The inventory levels for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have decreased compared to last year, attributed to lower return requirements set by manufacturers [8][9][10]. - The overall market is experiencing a price stabilization effort, with many brands controlling inventory to avoid price drops [22][23][24][25]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The liquor market is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, with no significant fluctuations anticipated, primarily due to the limited number of holidays [10][11][12]. - There is a noted shift in consumer behavior, with high-end business demand recovering slowly while mid-range products are gaining traction [46][47][48]. - The overall consumption sentiment remains cautious, with many consumers still holding onto inventory from previous purchases [55][56]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The industry faces challenges such as high inventory levels and the need for effective inventory management to align with consumer demand [28][29][30]. - The expectation for the second quarter is cautious, with no immediate signs of demand recovery, particularly in the high-end segment [51][52][53]. - Brands are focusing on stabilizing prices and managing inventory effectively to prepare for upcoming sales events like the Dragon Boat Festival [19][20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable pricing strategy to avoid market chaos, especially in the context of rising costs and competitive pressures [42][43][44]. - There is a growing emphasis on direct sales channels and brand recognition as companies adapt to changing market dynamics [17][18][19]. - The overall sentiment in the industry suggests a need for patience and strategic planning to navigate the current market landscape effectively [16][17][18].