瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.09」 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 硅铁市场周报 宏观情绪延续偏弱，电价下调价格弱势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 1. 宏观方面，国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作，工业和信息化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施 办法》，目前已形成初稿；央行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；自5月8日起，个人 住房公积金贷款利率下调0.25个百分点。 2. 海外方面，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，符合市场预期；特朗普和英国首相斯塔默宣布达 成一项有限双边贸易协议，其中英国将购买价值100亿美元的波音飞机。 3. 供需方面，板块承压运行，铁合金目前生产利润为负，钢材需求预期总体仍较弱。利润方面，内蒙古现货利润-230元/吨；宁夏 现货利润-110元/吨。目前来看，美国与部分国家已经达成协议，随着国务院副总理何立峰5月9日至12日与美方代表开启会谈 ...

国都期货：短期螺纹钢价格或延续弱势 基本面，五大钢材供需双降，螺纹产量大幅下降，热卷产量小幅上升，供给整体下降；表观消费大幅下 降，总库存出现累库。综合来看，弱现实主导盘面运行逻辑，本周钢材市场呈现"供应减、需求塌、库 存增"的利空格局，短期价格或延续弱势。策略上，螺纹钢建议反弹沽空为主，低风偏者可暂时观望。 5月9日盘中，螺纹钢期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至3022.00元。截止发稿，螺纹钢主力 合约报3026.00元，跌幅1.50%。 螺纹钢期货主力跌超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国都期货 短期螺纹钢价格或延续弱势 银河期货 钢材期货价格仍然以震荡偏弱为主 光大期货 预计短期螺纹盘面仍将窄幅整理运行 基于前提条件，严格执行粗钢产量压减政策，会恶化焦煤端的供需格局，也就是说会导致焦煤焦炭端， 需求的恶化，进而在供应维持正常状态的情况下，一定是以原料的下跌，带动成本坍塌，阶段性的扩大 钢厂利润，而钢价跌幅小于原料跌幅，适度让利的局面。策略建议：总体上看，在没有粗钢调控政策出 台之前钢材期货价格仍然以震荡偏弱为主。 光大期货：预计短期螺纹盘面仍将窄幅整理运行 螺纹周产 ...

铁合金日报|2025-05-08 【宏观多重利好，硅铁再增 2 家减产企业】 | 硅铁 | 作者：李娟 | | --- | --- | | 【基本面分析】 | 铁合金分析师 | | 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 610-670 元/吨，河 | 从业资格号：F0291072 | | 北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 730-770 元/吨。宁夏 4 月硅铁厂结算电价下降预期兑现，关注 5 月电 | 交易咨询号：Z0012479 | | 价上调幅度。 | | | 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁自然块报 5400-5500 元/吨现金含税出厂，75 硅铁 5950-6050 元/ | 邮箱： | | 吨现金含税出厂。铁合金在线资讯，青海天健硅业计划明日早上停炉检修 1 台 25000KVA 硅 | lj@hrrdqh.com | | 铁炉,陕西恒源检修 1 台 33000KVA 硅铁炉，预计检修半个月。 | 联系方式： | | | 136 6936 2639 | | 3、仓单变化：硅铁仓单 17881 张环比上个交易日增 19 张，预报 1415 张环比增 501 张， | | | 仓单 ...

今年以来，焦煤期货价格持续下跌，在压减粗钢产量的背景下，后期焦煤期货将如何运行？ 需求下降 2025年3月6日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁表示，国家发展改革委将分行业出台化解重点产业结构矛盾 的具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好适应市场需求变化。 在今年3月召开的全国两会上，国家发展改革委明确提出，出台化解重点产业结构性矛盾的政策措施， 通过强化产业调控、提质升级破"内卷"。持续实施粗钢产量调控，推动钢铁产业减量重组。 国家能源局2月27日发布了《2025年能源工作指导意见》。煤炭方面，意见提到，2025年煤炭要稳产增 产。国家能源局煤炭司3月3日表示，全力做好煤炭稳产稳供。4月29日，国务院国资委党委书记、主任 张玉卓强调，要坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，全力以赴履行好维护国家能源安全的重大使 命，进一步加强煤炭资源探产供储销衔接，增强兜底保障能力，精准规划项目投资和产能接续，扎实做 好能源保供工作。 数据显示，今年一季度我国原煤产量同比增长8.1%，其中山西地区一季度原煤产量同比增长19.8%。去 年山西煤炭产量较低，今年在稳产增产的政策基调下，山西煤炭产量同比大增。今年 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 908.00 | -3.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1507.00 | +5.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 400381.00 | ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 刷日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 90955 | 1576.0 | -25,5 | JM2601 | 959.5 | 980.0 | -20,5 | 101 查会 | -61.5 | -87.0 | 25.5 | | J2505 | 1470.5 | 1601.0 | -130.5 | JM2505 | 880.0 | 888.0 | -8.0 | 105基差 | 18.5 | -112.0 | 130 5 | | 12509 | 1505.0 | 1538.0 | -36.0 | 80952WIE | 911.5 | 930.5 | -19.0 | 100 变云 | -13.0 | -49.0 | 36.0 ...

民生证券研报指出，特朗普承认对华145%关税确实很高，协议达成后美对华关税将大幅下降，但不会 降至零，关税政策仍有反复。4月25日，中共中央召开政治局会议，会议指出，面对外部冲击影响加 大，要充分备足预案，强化政策取向一致性，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定 性，后续或将推出相应政策对冲外部关税政策影响。长期来看，粗钢仍有产量调控预期，原料端铁矿、 焦煤供给趋于宽松，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 盘面上，2025年4月28日早盘，钢铁板块逆势走强，三钢闽光、首钢股份、宝钢股份、新钢股份、太钢 不锈涨超5%。 产品方面，钢铁LOF(A：502023，C：012810，I：024184)强势涨超2%。该产品紧密跟踪国证钢铁行业 指数，选取黑色金属行业中规模和流动性突出的上市公司证券作为样本，旨在反映该行业整体收益表 现，为投资者提供细分行业的指数化投资工具。 产业数据方面，上周钢材价格上涨。截至4月25日，上海20mmHRB400材质螺纹价格为3200元/吨，较前 一周升70元/吨。高线8.0mm价格为3410元/吨，较前一周升80 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Views - The steel industry shows resilience in demand, with steel prices experiencing a slight upward trend. The report highlights that the prices for five major steel products as of April 25 are as follows: rebar at 3,323 CNY/ton (+1.34%), wire rod at 3,645 CNY/ton (+1.02%), hot-rolled coil at 3,288 CNY/ton (+0.80%), cold-rolled coil at 3,812 CNY/ton (-1.54%), and medium plate at 3,529 CNY/ton (+0.41%) [2][3]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron water production, which rose by 4.23 million tons week-on-week, nearing historical highs. However, the increase in production does not correspond to a significant rise in finished steel supply, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in the performance of listed steel companies, with most reporting improved quarterly profits due to lower raw material prices and effective cost control measures [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report indicates that the steel market is currently experiencing a supply increase while demand is slightly declining, yet steel prices are generally on the rise. This suggests that steel prices may have reached a bottom, supported by resilient demand [2][3]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.7584 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The average daily iron water production from 247 steel companies was 2.4435 million tons, also showing a week-on-week increase [2][3]. (b) Consumption of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 9.2625 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 223,900 tons. Notably, rebar and wire rod consumption saw significant declines [2][3]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased by 504,100 tons week-on-week, with social inventory down by 414,000 tons to 1,083,430 tons, and steel mill inventory down by 90,100 tons to 450,840 tons [2][3]. (d) Profitability - As of April 25, 54.98% of the sampled steel companies were profitable, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The average iron water cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,418 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase [2][3]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index reported a weekly increase of 1.65%, closing at 2,147.63 points, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 1.15% [4]. The overall price-to-book ratio for the steel sector is at 0.96, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4]. 4. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at resolving structural issues in the steel industry, which are expected to support price increases and improve profitability in the sector [10]. The focus on reducing low-efficiency production capacity and enhancing high-end production capabilities is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel [6][9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand and reducing supply, with a focus on high-quality development [2][4]. - The report highlights an increase in daily molten iron production and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][12]. - The demand for steel products has shown signs of recovery, although there are fluctuations in specific product categories [39][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in the economy, moving from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production increased by 4.4 thousand tons to 244.4 thousand tons, with a rise in the utilization rate of blast furnaces to 91.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - Total steel inventory decreased by 3.2%, with significant reductions in both social and factory inventories [24][25]. - The report notes that the government is implementing policies to control crude steel production, which is expected to lead to a reduction in supply and support price stability [4][13]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 2.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption showing a notable decline [39][47]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel increased by 11.6%, indicating some recovery in demand [40][39]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown strength, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.7% week-on-week [66]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for steel products are improving, particularly for long-process steel [66][68]. - The report highlights that the current market conditions may lead to a stronger performance in steel prices in the near term [66][67]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Xining Special Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Changbao Steel (Buy) - Yongjin Steel (Buy) [9].