智通财经APP获悉，2月26日，世界钢铁协会发布2026年1月全球粗钢产量。2026年1月全球69个纳入世界钢铁协会统计国家/地区的粗钢产量为1.473亿吨， 同比下降6.5%。 各地区粗钢产量 2026年1月，非洲粗钢产量为200万吨，同比提高5.8%；亚洲和大洋洲粗钢产量为1.076亿吨，同比下降8.6%；欧盟（27国）粗钢产量为1030万吨，同比下 降2.3%；其他欧洲国家粗钢产量为370万吨，同比提高4.4%；中东粗钢产量为480万吨，同比提高12.6%；北美粗钢产量为920万吨，同比下降0.6%；俄罗 斯和其他独联体国家+乌克兰粗钢产量为650万吨，同比下降8.6%；南美粗钢产量为340万吨，同比下降1.2%。 | 表1：各地区粗钢产量 | | --- | 上述69国/地区提交的数据，其2024年产量占全球粗钢产量的98%。表格中包含的国家和地区： 非洲：阿尔及利亚、埃及、利比亚、摩洛哥、南非、突尼斯 亚洲和大洋洲：澳大利亚、中国、印度、日本、蒙古国、新西兰、巴基斯坦、韩国、中国台湾省、泰国、越南 欧盟 (27国)：奥地利、比利时、保加利亚、捷克、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、意大利、卢森堡、荷兰、波兰、 ...

世界 钢铁协会公布数据显示，2026年1月全球69个纳入世界钢铁协会统计国家/地区的粗钢产量为1.47亿 吨，同比下降6.5%。2026年1月，非洲粗钢产量为200万吨，同比提高5.8%；亚洲和大洋洲粗钢产量为 1.08亿吨，同比下降8.6%；欧盟（27国）粗钢产量为1030万吨，同比下降2.3%；其他欧洲国家粗钢产量 为370万吨，同比提高4.4%；中东粗钢产量为480万吨，同比提高12.6%；北美粗钢产量为920万吨，同 比下降0.6%；俄罗斯和其他独联体国家+乌克兰粗钢产量为650万吨，同比下降8.6%；南美粗钢产量为 340万吨，同比下降1.2%。 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Consumption - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel output is projected to increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - The total steel exports for 2025 are anticipated to reach 11.9019 million tons, marking a 7.5% increase and setting a historical record [4][14] Market Dynamics - As of January 21, 2025, the national main port iron ore transactions were 812,000 tons, a decrease of 30.3% compared to the previous period, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down by 2.2% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week, while the profit rate for steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] Steel Inventory and Demand - The supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.62 million tons, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] - The apparent consumption of steel was 8.2612 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand showed a recovery of 0.1528 million tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [7][17] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range from 3,250 to 3,350 yuan per ton [8][18]

Core Viewpoint - The global crude steel production is projected to decline by 4.6% year-on-year in November 2025, totaling 140.1 million tons across 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics [1] Group 1: Regional Steel Production - Africa's crude steel production is expected to reach 2 million tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1] - Asia and Oceania's crude steel production is projected at 99.9 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [1] - The European Union (27 countries) is anticipated to produce 10.2 million tons of crude steel, down 3.5% year-on-year [1] - Other European countries are expected to see a crude steel production of 3.7 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - The Middle East's crude steel production is projected at 5.5 million tons, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [1] - North America's crude steel production is expected to reach 9 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - Russia and other CIS countries, including Ukraine, are projected to produce 6.3 million tons of crude steel, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - South America's crude steel production is expected to be 3.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global crude steel production is projected to decline by 4.6% year-on-year in November 2025, totaling 1.401 billion tons across 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics [1] Group 1: Regional Steel Production - Africa's crude steel production is expected to reach 2 million tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1] - Asia and Oceania's crude steel production is projected to be 99.9 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [1] - The European Union (27 countries) is anticipated to produce 10.2 million tons of crude steel, down 3.5% year-on-year [1] - Other European countries are expected to see a crude steel production of 3.7 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - The Middle East's crude steel production is forecasted at 5.5 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - North America's crude steel production is projected to be 9 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - Russia and other CIS countries, including Ukraine, are expected to produce 6.3 million tons of crude steel, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - South America's crude steel production is anticipated to reach 3.5 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]

Group 1 - The global crude steel production is projected to be 1.401 billion tons in November 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range, and the iron ore price shows a volatile trend. The coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The trading volume declined. The investment data in November continued to weaken, and the steel market was in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price of iron ore fell. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while the iron - making output decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term price trend is volatile [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, the spot price of some varieties changed, and the inventory in the factory continued to accumulate. Affected by factors such as the off - season and low downstream profits, the short - term market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, the spot price fell, and the downstream demand decreased. The short - term market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened, and the spot price increased slightly. Although the market sentiment has been boosted, the fundamentals lack continuous upward driving force, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, and the spot price increased. The production is decreasing, but the terminal demand is weak. With the support of supply reduction, the short - term price is expected to be firm and volatile [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [5][6][7] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][17] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report displays the inter - period contract spread trends of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [23][24][26] - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the trends of inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including the on - disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][48][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54][55]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows a significant increase, with plywood futures experiencing a slight upward trend, currently priced at 146.75 yuan/ton, up by 0.10% [1] - As of the week ending November 22, the U.S. steel capacity utilization rate stands at 76.9% according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) [1] - The World Steel Association projects that global crude steel production will reach 1.433 billion tons by October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, with production from January to October 2025 at 1.5176 billion tons, down 2.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The China Iron and Steel Association reports that as of mid-November, social inventory of five major steel varieties in 21 cities is 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons or 2.5% month-on-month, but an increase of 2.12 million tons or 32.2% compared to the beginning of the year, and up 1.87 million tons or 27.3% year-on-year [1] - As of November 24, the total urban inventory is 8.8696 million tons, down by 231,100 tons or 2.54% from the previous week, with construction steel inventory totaling 4.5574 million tons, a decrease of 172,500 tons or 3.65% week-on-week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Steel Association reported a projected decline of 5.9% in global crude steel production for October 2025, totaling 143.3 million tons compared to the previous year [1]. Regional Crude Steel Production - Africa's crude steel production is expected to reach 2 million tons in October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [3]. - Asia and Oceania are projected to produce 102.4 million tons, showing a decline of 8.2% year-on-year [3]. - The European Union (27 countries) is anticipated to produce 10.8 million tons, down 3.5% from the previous year [3]. - Other European countries are expected to see a production increase to 3.6 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year [3]. - The Middle East's crude steel production is projected to rise to 5.4 million tons, an increase of 9.2% [3]. - North America is expected to produce 9.1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [3]. - Crude steel production in Russia and other CIS countries, including Ukraine, is projected to decline to 6.4 million tons, down 5.1% [3]. - South America is expected to produce 3.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [3]. Top Ten Countries in Crude Steel Production - China is projected to produce 72 million tons in October 2025, a decrease of 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - India's crude steel production is expected to reach 13.6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [6]. - The United States is projected to produce 7 million tons, an increase of 9.4% [6]. - Japan's production is expected to be 6.9 million tons, down 1.0% year-on-year [6]. - Russia's estimated production is 5.3 million tons, a decline of 6.2% [6]. - South Korea is expected to produce 5.1 million tons, down 5.8% [6]. - Turkey's production is projected to be 3.2 million tons, an increase of 3.1% [6]. - Germany is expected to produce 3.1 million tons, down 3.0% [6]. - Brazil's production is projected to be 3 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% [6]. - Iran is expected to produce 3.3 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.0% [6].

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's crude steel production reached 71.997 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative crude steel production totaled 817.874 million tons, down 3.9% compared to the same period last year [1] Provincial Production Data - In the first ten months of 2025, Hebei ranked first in crude steel production with 16.67859 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 9.83761 million tons, and Shandong with 5.80004 million tons [1][2] - The October 2025 provincial crude steel production rankings showed Hebei leading with 1.22379 million tons, followed by Jiangsu at 0.83857 million tons, and Liaoning at 0.55405 million tons [2]