Core Viewpoint - UOB has raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 7.7% due to strong export performance, resilient manufacturing activity, and continued foreign investment [1] Economic Growth Forecast - UOB predicts Vietnam's economic growth rate for Q4 to be 7.2% [1] - Vietnam's actual GDP grew by 7.85% in the first three quarters [1] - The economic outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, although growth is expected to slightly slow to 7% due to base effects and previous growth deceleration [1] Influencing Factors - The country continues to face adverse impacts from changing US trade and tariff policies, yet maintains strong performance thanks to resilient exports and industrial production [1]

Economic Growth Projections - The Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) forecasts a 3.4% economic growth rate for the region in 2026, up from 2.7% in 2025, driven primarily by non-oil sectors [1] - The non-oil sector is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, supported by active agricultural and public works sectors [1] Country-Specific Growth Insights - Cameroon is projected to achieve a 3.6% economic growth in 2026, aided by the acceleration of the Comprehensive Import Substitution Program for Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (PIISAH) and improved energy supply, particularly from the Nachtigal hydroelectric plant [1] - The Central African Republic's non-oil sector growth rate is expected to rise from 3.5% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, supported by export-oriented agriculture and infrastructure projects [2] - The Republic of Congo is anticipated to achieve a 4.2% economic growth, benefiting from strong performance in agriculture, construction, public works, financial services, and the development of protected agricultural zones [2] - Gabon is projected to be the fastest-growing country, with an expected economic growth of 6.3% in 2026, significantly up from 3.0% in 2025, driven by active construction and public works, the commissioning of the Bangoumba manganese mine, and strong performance in agriculture and services [2] - Equatorial Guinea's non-oil economic activity is expected to remain sluggish, with growth of only 0.1% in 2025 and an anticipated 0.7% in 2026 [2] - Chad's economic growth is projected at 2.1% in 2026, primarily benefiting from the CotonTchad SN revival plan and the gradual development of economic zones [2]

Economic Growth Forecast - S&P Global Ratings predicts Azerbaijan's GDP growth to be 1.8% in 2025, followed by 1.7% in 2026, and reaching 2% and 2.1% in 2027 and 2028 respectively, resulting in an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.9% from 2025 to 2028 [1] Sector Performance - The growth in the second half of 2025 is expected to be driven primarily by the non-oil and gas sectors, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - The oil sector continues to negatively impact overall economic growth due to declining prices and reduced production [1] Oil and Gas Production - In the first ten months of 2025, oil production decreased to approximately 556,000 barrels per day, a year-on-year reduction of about 27,000 barrels per day, representing a decline of 4.6% [1] - Natural gas production was around 849,000 barrels per day (oil equivalent), with a modest year-on-year increase of approximately 14,000 barrels per day (oil equivalent), reflecting a growth of 1.7% [1] - The slight increase in natural gas production is insufficient to offset the decline in oil production, indicating that the traditional oil and gas sector remains in a state of negative growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Morocco forecasts a GDP growth rate of 5% for 2025, with an average stable growth of approximately 4.5% over the next two years [1] Economic Growth Projections - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 5% in 2025, 4% in 2026, and 2% in 2027, assuming grain production returns to average levels of 5 million tons [1] - Non-agricultural activities are projected to maintain robust growth driven by strong investment, with growth rates of 5% in 2025, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.5% in 2027 [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Morocco has decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% and will continue to closely monitor economic conditions to make data-driven decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy has shown resilience against uncertainty and trade tensions, which is "stronger than expected" [1] - Lagarde indicated that the ECB may raise its economic growth forecasts in the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Position - Lagarde reaffirmed that the current monetary policy is in a "favorable position" or "good position," suggesting that interest rate policies will remain unchanged in the short term [1] - This statement has been widely interpreted by the market as a clear signal that the ECB has no plans to adjust the benchmark interest rate at this time [1] Group 2: Shift in Policy Focus - The ECB's policy focus is subtly shifting from combating inflation to assessing the ongoing resilience of the economy [1] - Analysts suggest that this indicates a potentially more hawkish stance from the ECB than previously anticipated by the market [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Market attention is now directed towards the December meeting, where the ECB will release its latest macroeconomic forecasts [1] - The extent of the upward revision in economic growth forecasts will directly influence market judgments regarding the timing of the ECB's first interest rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that the Eurozone economy is close to its potential level, suggesting a possible upward revision of economic growth forecasts in December [1] Group 2 - The ECB may adjust its economic growth predictions in response to the current economic conditions in the Eurozone [1] - Lagarde's comments reflect a positive outlook on the Eurozone's economic performance, indicating stability and potential growth [1] - The statement highlights the ECB's proactive approach in monitoring and adjusting economic forecasts based on real-time economic data [1]

Group 1 - The Asian Development Bank has revised China's growth forecast for this year from 4.7% to 4.8% due to resilient export performance and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 4.3% [1]

USDINR flirting with the psychological 90 mark Earlier this week, USDINR breached the psychological 90 mark, reflecting depreciation pressure since September - emanating from the recent deterioration in external balance. Heavy RBI interventions (~US$50bn via spot/forwards/NDFs) had delayed this move thus far, but the break above 90 suggests a shift in policy tolerance. We now forecast year- end USD/INR at 92 for FY26 and 94 for FY27. BoP flows stress - driven by tariffs uncertainty, gold imports and weak do ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Schnabel supports investor bets on the next interest rate hike by the ECB, indicating that borrowing costs are at an appropriate level unless new shocks occur [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Schnabel noted that consumer spending, corporate investment, and significant government spending on defense and infrastructure will continue to boost the economy [1] - Economic and inflation risks are tilted to the upside, suggesting a potential upward revision in economic growth forecasts during the December meeting [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Analysts expect the deposit rate to remain at 2% for the fourth consecutive time [1] - Schnabel is the first ECB policymaker to explicitly state that borrowing costs have reached not just an "appropriate level" but the lower limit [1]

报告预测，若美国贸易政策不确定性有所下降、国际需求趋于稳定、能源大宗商品价格持续温和，外需 将对2025年和2026年的经济分别产生0.6和0.2个百分点的拖累。 新华财经罗马12月5日电（记者高婧妍）意大利国家统计局（ISTAT）5日发布的最新经济预测报告显 示，预计2025年该国国内生产总值（GDP）将增长0.5%，2026年增速提升至0.8%。 报告称，预测期内的经济增长将完全由剔除库存变动因素的国内需求驱动，预计今明两年，内需将分别 贡献1.1个百分点的增长。 此外，报告预测意大利就业市场将持续改善，2025年和2026年就业将分别增长1.3%和0.9%，超过同期 GDP增速。与此同时，失业率预计将进一步小幅下降，在2025年降至6.2%，2026年降至6.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...