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国际货币基金组织预计西非经货联盟的经济增长率为 6.3%,而中非经货共同体仅为2.4%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-05-10 16:48
Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the economic growth rate for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) will be 6.3% in 2025, while the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) is expected to slow down to 2.4% [1][2] - CEMAC's slowdown is primarily attributed to the economic recession in Equatorial Guinea, which is forecasted to shrink by 4.2% in 2025 after a growth of 1.9% in 2024 [2] - Cameroon, considered a key economic pillar in the region, is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 3.6%, although this is 0.5 percentage points lower than government expectations [2] Group 2 - UEMOA's economic growth is driven by Senegal, which is projected to see its growth rate rise from 6.7% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2025, largely due to the emergence of the oil industry [3] - Niger's growth is expected to significantly slow down from 10.3% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2025, despite initial optimistic forecasts based on oil production and trade recovery with Benin [3] - Other UEMOA member countries are expected to grow as follows: Benin (6.5%), Côte d'Ivoire (6.3%), Togo (5.5%), and Guinea-Bissau (5.1%), while Mali and Burkina Faso will have lower growth rates of 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively [3]
英国央行行长贝利:英国央行的经济增长预测并非“悲观绝望”。
news flash· 2025-05-08 12:17
英国央行行长贝利:英国央行的经济增长预测并非"悲观绝望"。 ...
未知机构:大摩-关税对中国经济的影响及北京的应对策略–20250508-20250508
未知机构· 2025-05-08 01:55
Summary of Conference Call on Tariffs and Economic Impact in China Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy and the response strategies from Beijing, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Current Tariff Situation - The current US-China tariffs are at a high level, with expectations that effective tax rates will gradually decrease as negotiations progress [2][3]. - The anticipated effective tariff rate for the US is projected to be 45% by 2025, down from 11% plus exemptions currently in place [2]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs significantly affect exports, with varying impacts based on different tariff levels. An additional 34% tariff could lead to a 34% annual decline in exports to the US, while maintaining the current 96% tariff could result in a 70% decline [3][4]. - The overall impact of tariffs is expected to lower the GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points [2][3]. Stimulus Policy Measures - In Q2 2025, the government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds and provide unemployment insurance tax refunds to exporters [5]. - A supplementary fiscal plan of 1-1.5 trillion yuan is expected to be introduced in the second half of 2025, focusing on infrastructure and technology investments [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecast - GDP growth is projected to be below 4.5% in Q2 2025, a decline of 1 percentage point from Q1 2025 [6]. - By Q4 2025, actual GDP growth is expected to drop to 3.7%, with nominal GDP growth potentially falling below 3% [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - The government is cautious in its economic stimulus approach, with a gradual shift from investment-driven policies to consumption-driven strategies, although investment remains the primary focus [6][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding the multiplier effect of consumption stimulus makes it challenging for the government to pivot quickly from investment to consumption [8]. - Potential new growth areas for the Chinese economy include green energy sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, as well as the integration of artificial intelligence with traditional industries [9]. Conclusion - The ongoing high tariffs and the cautious approach of the Chinese government in implementing stimulus measures indicate a challenging economic environment ahead, with significant implications for GDP growth and export performance [1][2][6].
日本央行行长植田和男:日本央行的经济增长和价格预测可能会根据贸易政策的变化而发生重大调整。
news flash· 2025-05-01 06:44
日本央行行长植田和男:日本央行的经济增长和价格预测可能会根据贸易政策的变化而发生重大调整。 ...
法国财政部长:有望实现2025年的经济增长预测。保持经济增长目标不变。
news flash· 2025-04-30 06:49
保持经济增长目标不变。 法国财政部长:有望实现2025年的经济增长预测。 ...
4月8日电,新加坡贸工部可能下调2025年经济增长预测。
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-04-08 05:27
智通财经4月8日电,新加坡贸工部可能下调2025年经济增长预测。 ...