订阅欧洲央行动态 +订阅 金十数据7月29日讯，德意志银行现在认为，欧洲央行已经结束其宽松周期。此前，德意志银行预计欧 洲央行将在9月再次降息，并预计终端利率为1.50%（目前为2%）。不过，他们此前也指出，欧洲央行 宽松周期止步于1.75%甚至2.00%的风险不容忽视。所以，现在的情况似乎就是这样。德意志银行现在 认为欧洲央行的下一步行动是加息，但这要到2026年底才会实现。 德银：欧洲央行宽松周期已结束，下一步行动是加息 ...

Group 1 - Franklin Templeton predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider raising interest rates by the end of the year due to increased defense spending potentially boosting the economy [2] - David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, believes that by 2026, Europe will show low inflation and strong growth, suggesting a shift in ECB policy towards rate hikes [2] - Current market expectations lean towards three more rate cuts by the ECB this year, each by 25 basis points, maintaining the deposit rate at 1.5% until mid-next year [2][3] Group 2 - The Dutch central bank president, Knot, indicates that the upcoming ECB meeting in June will be complex, with potential downward revisions to inflation forecasts [3] - Zahn expects the ECB deposit rate to bottom out between 1.75% and 1.5% by September, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the economy [3] - The focus is shifting back to the economic boost from European defense plans, with Germany initiating significant debt financing for defense and infrastructure spending [3] Group 3 - Franklin Templeton's European total return fund has returned approximately 3.6% over the past year, compared to a benchmark return of 6.5% [4] - The company has reduced its exposure to Spain, France, and Italy, anticipating widening yield spreads between their 10-year bonds and German bonds [3][4] - The outlook for the UK is negative, with all UK government bond positions sold off due to severe fiscal conditions, leading to rising long-term borrowing costs [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Franklin Templeton suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) will consider interest rate hikes by the end of this year due to potential economic growth driven by defense spending [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - David Zahn, head of the European fixed income department, indicates that by 2026, the economic situation in Europe will be very clear, with low inflation rates and strong economic growth [1] - This perspective contrasts with current market expectations, where traders anticipate three more rate cuts from the ECB this year, each by 25 basis points [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Projections - Traders expect the deposit rate to remain at 1.5% until mid-next year following the anticipated rate cuts [1]