事件：2025 年3 月27 日，公司发布2024 年年度报告。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收入1129.94 亿元， 同比下降3.57%；营业成本1030.71 亿元，同比下降6.00%；实现归母净利润57.03 亿元，同比上涨 26.11%；实现基本每股收益为人民币 0.46 元/股，同比去年提高0.11 元/股。 利用小时数下降带动营收下降。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收入1129.94亿元，同比下降3.57%。公司 完成发电量2226.26 亿千瓦时，同比下降约0.52%；其中煤机1934.7 亿千瓦时（yoy-1.07%），燃机 208.78 亿千瓦时（yoy+10.53%），水电82.7 亿千瓦时（yoy-11.37%）。利用小时数方面，公司煤电、 气电、水电分别为4084、2052、3363 小时，分别同比去年下降215、35、431 小时。公司发电量下降主 要由利用小时数下降引起，利用小时数下降主要原因系公司火电机组利用小时受新能源机组挤压。燃气 发电板块的发电量增长原因系报告期内公司新投产装机150.88 万千瓦全部为燃气机组。 煤价、电价剪刀差扩大带动公司利润增长。2024 年，公司平 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to slight decreases in coal prices and volumes, with a focus on potential asset injections and dividend capabilities [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit in 2026 and 2027, with forecasts of 2.46 billion yuan and 2.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s coal production was 34.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 29.97 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 490.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it dropped to 426.1 yuan per ton, down 16.4% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.55 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.94 percentage points [6] Asset Injection and Growth Potential - There are expectations for asset injections from the parent company, which has a coal production capacity of nearly 400 million tons per year, compared to the company's current capacity of 34.5 million tons per year [6] - The company has significant room for capacity expansion, which could enhance its growth potential in the future [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.4, 7.8, and 7.3 [1][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.7% in 2024 to 10.3% in 2027, indicating a potential decrease in profitability [7]

Summary of Jin Control Coal Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin Control Coal Industry - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Investment Income**: Decreased from 648 million to 357 million yuan, primarily due to the liquidation of a financial company and adjustments in resource tax rates in Shanxi Province, which reduced profits by approximately 200 million yuan [2][4] - **2025 Q1 Net Profit**: 511.2 million yuan, down over 30% year-on-year from 780 million yuan, mainly impacted by significant declines in coal prices and reduced production and sales volumes [2][4] - **Sales Volume**: Q1 sales volume decreased by over 30%, with production down by 600,000 tons and sales down by 1.7 million tons year-on-year [2][4] Market Conditions - **Coal Price Trends**: Coal prices have been declining since the end of last year, dropping over 100 yuan to around 665 yuan per ton. The company anticipates a potential recovery in prices in May and June due to seasonal demand and a rebound in the construction industry [2][5][6] - **Long-term Contracts**: The company maintains stable pricing through long-term contracts, with prices at 570 yuan per ton for pit coal and 770 yuan per ton for port coal, which has helped mitigate market volatility [2][7] Operational Insights - **Inventory Levels**: As of early March, inventory at Tashan Port reached over 2 million tons, remaining stable at that level until the end of Q1 [2][9] - **Production Strategy**: The company has not reduced production despite high inventory levels, indicating a stable operational strategy [2][14] Future Outlook - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a 45% dividend payout ratio for 2025, despite the downturn in the coal market [3][18] - **Asset Injection Project**: The company is focused on the Panjiakou asset injection project, which is currently in the evaluation and auditing phase [3][17] - **Cost Management**: The company has been actively working on cost control, but further significant reductions may be limited [15] Regulatory Environment - **Safety and Production Regulations**: The regulatory environment in Shanxi has become stricter in 2025, but production efficiency has improved, leading to increased output [20][21] - **Market Dynamics**: There are no current policies mandating increased production to stabilize coal prices, and industry associations have suggested reducing output to prevent further price declines [22] Additional Considerations - **Impact of High-Cost Mines**: Some older state-owned coal mines are experiencing losses due to high extraction costs, while Jin Control Coal Industry, with modernized operations, is not facing similar issues [19] - **Import Policies**: The likelihood of implementing restrictions on low-quality coal imports has decreased as the price advantage of imported coal has diminished [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.808 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, and 512 million yuan for Q1 2025, down 34% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company's financial expenses turned negative in Q1 2025, with total expenses for 2024 amounting to 1.12 billion yuan, a reduction of 150 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to acquire mining rights and related assets from its controlling shareholder, which is expected to increase its production capacity by 29% [2]. - The cash dividend payout ratio has increased by 5 percentage points to 45%, with a high dividend yield of 6.6% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 15.033 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.839 billion yuan, 2.120 billion yuan, and 2.442 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.4X, 9.1X, and 7.9X [3][4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 47.33 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.6% [9]. Production and Sales Summary - In 2024, the company maintained stable production and sales, with coal production of 34.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, and sales of 29.97 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [8]. - In Q1 2025, coal sales significantly declined, with production at 7.86 million tons, down 6.9% year-on-year, and sales at 5.26 million tons, down 24.3% year-on-year [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.22 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at RMB 150.33 billion, down 2.01% year-on-year, and net profit at RMB 28.08 billion, down 14.93% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with revenue at RMB 24.24 billion, down 33.73% year-on-year, and net profit at RMB 5.12 billion, down 34.35% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [1]. - The company is focused on its core coal business and is expected to continue absorbing high-quality assets from the group, having initiated the acquisition of the Panjiayao coal mine, which has a planned annual capacity of 10 million tons [3]. - The company has implemented significant quality improvement and efficiency enhancement measures, resulting in a 0.5% decrease in operating costs and a 6.42 percentage point reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio to 28.89% in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, coal business revenue was RMB 147.00 billion, down 1.46% year-on-year, with coal production at 34.67 million tons, down 0.06% year-on-year, and sales volume at 29.97 million tons, down 0.43% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of coal was RMB 491 per ton, down 1.48% year-on-year, reflecting stable pricing compared to the market average [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 29.9 billion and RMB 34.5 billion, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at RMB 36.9 billion [5]. - The company is characterized as a rare entity in the industry with both quality profitability and growth potential, supported by a rising dividend payout ratio, which reached 45% in 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [8][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows stable operations, with enhanced profitability in the coal business despite a decline in revenue and net profit [3][4][5]. - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy has been integrated into the company's financials, contributing to coal sales volume growth [4][6]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the injection of quality coal assets from the National Energy Group [6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [3][4]. - The coal production volume was 82.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales volume dropped by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons [5][10]. - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year, with a coal business gross margin of 30.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 55.102 billion yuan in 2025, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.77 yuan [11][12]. - Revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a forecast of 330.7 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [12][14]. Operational Highlights - The company’s total power generation in Q1 2025 was 50.42 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, with a total installed capacity of 47,505 MW [7][10]. - The transportation business saw a decline in volume and profitability, with self-owned railway turnover down 11.6% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is advancing the construction of new coal mines, which are expected to enhance future production capacity [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported stable performance in coal production and sales, with a slight decline in revenue and profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. The revenue for 2024 was CNY 15.033 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.808 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 0.755 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 45%, which is an increase of 5 percentage points from 2023, yielding a dividend yield of 6.6% based on the stock price as of April 25, 2025 [2]. - The company is initiating the injection of mining rights assets from its controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 3.799 billion, with a net profit of CNY 0.657 billion, showing a significant recovery compared to previous quarters [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 2.424 billion, down 33.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 0.512 billion, down 34.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s coal production in 2024 was 34.6664 million tons, with a slight decrease in sales and prices, maintaining a gross margin of 49.78% [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company has proposed a cash dividend of CNY 12.64 billion for 2024, with a payout ratio of 45% [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 2.170 billion, CNY 2.348 billion, and CNY 2.471 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.30, CNY 1.40, and CNY 1.48 [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the asset injection, which will enhance its production capacity to 10 million tons per year [4].