最直接的例子就是12月18号发布的利率点阵图，暗示放缓降息，使得比特币在一天内从11万跌到了9万2，跌幅超15%。欸，那下周三晚上美联储又要发布 未来的降息指引了，目前来看真的有点命途多舛。 美联储议息会议马上开始，这次会意外降息？结局让人直呼意外！ 以色列伊朗开战！我们钱包又被国际局势袭击了！币圈血洗！比特币暴跌，要去8万？（佩佩提醒：今天的文章有点长但很重要，大家耐心看完，文末附 财富密码。） 首先就是即将到来的美联储议息会议了，他可能会改变当前所有走势，因为6月的这次会议除了公布降息结果外，他更会发布未来利率点阵图，这个点阵 图是美联储对未来何时降息以及降多少的一个最直观的预期，每一次都会掀起腥风血雨。 而这次会议最大的不确定性就是9月是否降息以及今年会降息几次的问题，这关乎着币圈接下来的走势，这些咱们都是会在下周的利率点阵图上看到。目 前华尔街对9月的降息预期是五五开，但是我觉得点阵图可能会暗示9月不降息，这就会形成不小的利空。 而不降息的原因就是咱们上次讲的，美国通胀有可能会在接下来几个月持续上升，不少华尔街分析师是预期通胀从百分之二点几涨到4%甚至5%的，所以 别说9月了，可能到年底都不一定会降息 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 12, 2025, crude oil futures rose significantly, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel. The rise was due to geopolitical tensions, increased demand, and positive progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. The price increase may push up inflation and raise downstream costs, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. - A-share market: After opening lower in the morning, the three major A-share indexes quickly rebounded and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat. With limited news except for the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. - Gold: Currently in a volatile pattern that is difficult to change in the short term, but still bullish in the long term. It is advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10][11]. - Iron ore: There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but the continuous decline in port inventories supports the market. It is still a strong variety in the black series. Technically, the support below is effective, but it has been rising weakly recently, so it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass: The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is necessary to wait for the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17][18]. - Urea: The domestic daily urea output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price continues to adjust weakly. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12, 2025, WTI 7 - month crude oil futures rose 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel [3]. - Reasons for the rise: geopolitical tensions (uncertainty in US - Iran nuclear negotiations), increased demand (US summer travel peak and Middle - East summer electricity - consumption peak), and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3]. - Impact: may push up inflation and increase downstream costs, and continuous attention is needed on geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower, rebounded quickly, and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat [7]. - With limited news except for the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [6]. Gold - Currently in a volatile pattern, difficult to change in the short term, but bullish in the long term [11]. - Operation strategy: buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10]. Iron Ore - There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but port inventory decline supports the market [14][15]. - Technically, the support below is effective, but the recent rise is weak, so it is a volatile market [14]. Glass - Supply side: no significant losses and cold repairs, high factory inventories [18]. - Demand side: downstream demand has not increased significantly, waiting for real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17]. Urea - Supply: domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [21]. - Demand: agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited, so the price continues to adjust weakly [21]. - Strategy: when it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21].

美联储哈克：缓慢的通胀降温本身就足以证明美联储维持利率稳定是合理的。美联储可能同时面临通胀 上升和失业率上升的局面，这完全是可能的。在不确定性中，美联储必须等待观察下一步的政策措施 ...

Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years, with job cuts observed in sectors such as business services, education, and healthcare, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [1][2] - According to ADP Research, private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, falling short of all economists' predictions in a survey, marking the second consecutive month of significant underperformance [1][2] - The current job market is under dual pressure: a noticeable slowdown in hiring speed and an extended time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, with economists expecting more signs of cooling in the labor market in the coming months [2][3] Group 2 - Following the data release, stock index futures and U.S. Treasury yields fell, while President Trump reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates in response to the current situation [3][4] - Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remains strong, with a 7% increase for job switchers and a 4.5% increase for retained employees, according to the ADP report, which covers over 25 million U.S. private sector employees [4] - The upcoming U.S. government employment report for May is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm employment growth compared to the strong performance in April, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable [4]

英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：我们目前的形势与2022年通胀上升时的情况不同。 ...

美联储洛根：关税带来的风险是导致失业率上升和通胀上升，使美联储两大目标发生冲突。 ...

英国央行MPC委员泰勒：下行前景风险升温 需要采取更宽松的货币政策 智通财经5月30日电，英国央行MPC委员泰勒不是，由于全球形势的发展，下行前景风险升温，需要采 取更宽松的货币政策；通胀上升并非来自供需压力。 ...

特朗普关税政策被法院叫停，全球贸易谈判形势再添迷雾；美联储会议纪要显示，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险均有所提高； 韩国央行行长透露，亚洲国家与美国进行了外汇谈判，当前黄金、欧/美多空胶着，美/日空头占优，后市情绪如何？欢迎前 往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次） 电话.1 0370 T / 70 香港恒生指数 79% 21% 标普500指数 70% 30% 纳斯达克指数 74% 26% 道琼斯指数 31% 69% 日经225指数 54% 46% 德国DAX40指 33% 67% 数 外汇 T 多头 空头 欧元/美元 54% 46% 欧元/英镑 12% 88% 欧元/日元 71% 29% 欧元/澳元 16% 84% 英镑/美元 25% 75% 英镑/日元 33% 67% 美元/日元 31% 69% 美元/加元 44% 56% 美元/瑞郎 87% 13% 澳元/美元 75% 25% 澳元/日元 62% 38% 加元/日元 72% 28% 纽元/美元 49% 51% 纽元/日元 71% 29% 美元/离岸人 85% 15% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's staff has presented a clear stagflation forecast during the May meeting, which may serve as the foundational framework for the upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve staff indicated a substantial slowdown in the labor market, leading to an expected rise in the unemployment rate this year [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain elevated throughout the forecast period, extending to 2027 [1] - Inflation is expected to rise "significantly" this year, with a smaller price increase anticipated in 2026 [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The staff noted that if their inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 (projected at 2%) are incorrect, it is more likely to be an underestimation rather than an overestimation of inflation risks [1]