Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including economic data from China, the United States, and the Eurozone [2][3][4] Key Points by Date September 22 - China's central bank will announce the September 2025 LPR at 09:00, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values, having a neutral impact on futures [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry at 15:00, with capital market development likely to be a core topic [4] - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be - 15.4, up from - 15.5 [5] September 23 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, expected to be 51, up from 50.7, which may help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [8] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, expected to be 53.5, up from 53, which may also help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [9] September 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the mid - September market prices of important production materials at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [10] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August new home sales at 22:00, with the seasonally - adjusted annualized total expected to be 653,000, up from 652,000, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 19 at 22:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures prices rise [12] - The US Conference Board will announce the September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be 102.9, down from 103.3, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [13] September 25 - The central bank will conduct an incremental roll - over of the maturing MLF, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing on this day [14] - The Gfk Institute will announce Germany's October consumer confidence index at 14:00, expected to be - 23.3, up from - 23.6 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the Q2 2025 GDP at 20:30, with the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP expected to be 3.3% [16] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of August durable goods orders at 20:30, expected to be - 0.5%, up from - 2.8%, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 at 20:30, expected to be 225,000, down from 231,000, which may help industrial product futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18] - The National Association of Realtors will announce the annualized total of August existing home sales at 22:00, expected to be 3.98 million, down from 4.01 million [19] September 26 - The US Department of Commerce will announce the August PCE price index at 20:30. If the annual and monthly rates of the PCE price index are slightly higher than the previous values and the core PCE price index shows specific changes, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December [20] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August personal consumption expenditures at 20:30, with the monthly rate expected to be 0.4%, down from 0.5%, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [21] September 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in August at 09:30, with the previous value (July) showing a 1.5% year - on - year decline and a 1.7% cumulative decline from January to July [22]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has increased liquidity injections into the market to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos, 1,500 million yuan in treasury cash deposits, and 6,000 million yuan in buyout reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 11,923 million yuan [1] - Next week, there will be 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities of 2,800 million yuan, 2,870 million yuan, 4,185 million yuan, 4,870 million yuan, and 3,543 million yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - Additionally, 3,000 million yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature on Thursday, September 25 [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Industry insiders suggest that the central bank's recent actions to increase liquidity will help maintain a stable financial environment and reinforce the foundation for economic recovery [1] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the market, with a possibility of increasing MLF operations this month and the potential resumption of government bond trading [1]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% and the 5-year main contract up by 0.13% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.0790%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 1.7840% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a 287 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 40 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market saw an increase in overnight repurchase weighted rates above 1.44%, indicating a tightening funding situation despite the central bank's liquidity injections [2] Operational Suggestions - Despite a tightening funding situation, the bond market is showing signs of recovery due to improved cost-effectiveness and expectations of renewed bond purchases by the central bank [3] - The bond market remains uncertain, with factors such as market risk appetite and potential policy changes influencing future stability [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months (182 days) [1] - The operation is an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the amount maturing in September, indicating a continuous increase in reverse repurchase operations for the fourth consecutive month [1] - The PBOC has already conducted an equal amount rollover of a 1 trillion yuan 3-month reverse repurchase operation on September 5, suggesting a proactive approach to liquidity management [1] Group 2 - Analysts expect the PBOC to utilize both reverse repurchase and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market, aiming to stabilize market expectations and support government bond issuance [2] - There is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter to further enhance liquidity and encourage banks to increase credit lending [2] - The current market conditions, including a peak in government bond issuance and significant maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, are contributing to a tightening of liquidity, prompting the need for these measures [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is taking measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system by conducting a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 5, which aligns with market expectations and serves as a continuation of previous operations [2][3]. Group 1 - On September 5, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days), which is equivalent to the amount maturing on the same day [2]. - In September, an additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are expected to mature, and the market anticipates another operation from the PBOC, potentially with increased amounts [3]. - The current environment includes a peak in government bond issuance and a high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing, which could tighten liquidity [3]. Group 2 - Analysts predict that the PBOC will continue to use reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to inject liquidity into the market, aiming to stabilize market expectations and support government bond issuance [3]. - The PBOC's actions are seen as a signal of ongoing supportive monetary policy, with expectations of potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter to further enhance liquidity [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continuation of supportive monetary policy amid tightening liquidity conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On September 5, the PBOC executed a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months (91 days), which is equivalent to rolling over the same amount of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. - The PBOC is expected to continue this buyout reverse repurchase strategy in September, especially with 3.5 trillion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit maturing, marking the second-highest level this year [6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The ongoing strength in the stock market and the noticeable "migration" of household deposits are contributing to a tightening effect on liquidity, prompting the PBOC to act [6]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing market expectations and ensuring ample liquidity to support government bond issuance, while also signaling a sustained supportive stance in monetary policy [6]. Group 3: Reverse Repo Mechanism - The buyout reverse repurchase mechanism, introduced in October 2024, allows the PBOC to lend funds by purchasing bonds from primary dealers, enhancing liquidity management capabilities within a year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 5, 2023, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On September 5, the PBOC will carry out a 1 trillion yuan (approximately 154 billion USD) buyback reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - This operation is equivalent to rolling over the same amount of 3-month reverse repos that are set to mature on the same day [1] - An additional 300 billion yuan (approximately 46 billion USD) of 6-month reverse repos is also set to mature this month, with expectations for another operation of this type [1] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Policy Implications - Analysts predict that the PBOC will utilize both Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repo tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [1] - This strategy aims to stabilize market expectations, ensure ample liquidity, and support government bond issuance [1] - The approach signals a continued supportive monetary policy stance, reinforcing the use of quantity-based policy tools [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity in response to various market conditions [1] Group 1: Reasons for the Central Bank's Actions - The government bond issuance is expected to peak in September, necessitating liquidity support [1] - The maturity of commercial bank interbank certificates of deposit will reach 3.5 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest level this year [1] - The strong performance of the stock market has led to a noticeable "migration" of household deposits, contributing to a tightening effect on liquidity [1] Group 2: Expected Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank is likely to continue the previous three months' pattern of increasing reverse repurchase operations to address tightening liquidity [1] - An additional 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) is set to mature in September, with expectations for increased rollovers [1] - The combined use of MLF and reverse repurchase policy tools will inject medium-term liquidity into the market, stabilizing market expectations and supporting government bond issuance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on September 5, 2023, to address liquidity tightening in the market [2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On September 5, 1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos will mature, prompting the PBOC to conduct an equivalent operation, indicating a continuation of the previous month's policy [2]. - An additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos is set to mature in September, with expectations for another operation, potentially with increased amounts [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The government bond issuance is expected to peak in September, necessitating liquidity support from the PBOC [2]. - The maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is projected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan, the second-highest level this year, contributing to liquidity pressures [2]. - The strengthening stock market has led to a noticeable "funds migration" from residents' deposits, further tightening liquidity conditions [2]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The PBOC is likely to continue using both MLF and reverse repo tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, aiming to stabilize market expectations and ensure ample liquidity [2]. - This approach signals a sustained supportive stance in monetary policy, reinforcing the commitment to maintain liquidity for government bond issuance [2].