交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货多数上涨，30年期主力合约收涨0.24%，银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷反弹。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双双微幅上升。 降准生效流动性持稳而非进一步宽松；整体资金环境依然偏暖，后期关注本月中期借贷便利（MLF）续做情况。 2、资金面：5月15日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了645亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量645亿元，中标量645亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日1586亿元逆回购和1250亿元MLF到期，据此计算，单日全口径净回笼2191亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0297，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为0.0471，现券升水期货 ...

| 逆回购 中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净投放295亿元 金十数据5月16日讯，中国央行今日开展1065亿元7天期逆回购操作，因今日有770亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放295亿 元。本周，中国央行共开展4860亿元7天期逆回购操作，因本周共有8361亿元7天期逆回购和1250亿元1年MLF到期，本周实现净 回笼4751亿元。看公开市场资金流向，到"数据库-中国央行数据"查看>> | MLF到期 | 日期 | 类别(全部) | 量(亿) | 期限 | 利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-16 | 逆回购到期 | 770 | 7天 | | | 2025-05-16 | 逆回购 | 1065 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-05-15 | 逆回购到期 | 1586 | 7天 | | | 2025-05-15 | 逆回购 | 645 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-05-15 | MLF到期 | 1250 | 1年 | | | 2025-05-14 | 逆回购到期 | 1955 | 7天 | | | 2025-05-14 | 逆回购 | ...

温彬。资料图 温彬（中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长） 王静文（中国民生银行研究院宏观研究中心主任） 4月下旬的中央政治局会议要求，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，随后，5月7日 央行宣布了包括降准降息在内的三类举措、十项具体政策。5月9日，《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执 行报告》（简称《报告》）提出，要灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，预计货币政策将继续保持支持性 状态，重点将转向落地实施与效果评估。 货币政策加大逆周期调节力度 二是将去年四季度的"择机调整优化政策力度和节奏"改为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"。年初以 来，央行曾在多个场合表态要择机降准降息，在5月7日宽松政策宣布之后，《报告》要求积极落地5月 推出的一揽子金融政策。预计央行将会重点关注落地实施和效果评估，并密切关注形势变化，进而选择 合适的力度与节奏。 在流动性方面，预计市场流动性有望保持充裕、总体偏松。5月7日发布会上，央行曾提到，适度宽松的 货币政策内涵之一便是流动性充裕，向市场传递出下一阶段资金面或总体偏松的积极信号。此外，今年 1月10日央行暂停开展公开市场国债买入操作，以"防范资金沉淀空转"。但此次报告删掉 ...

下周资本市场大事提醒：美国CPI、PPI来袭 阿里、腾讯、京东将发布财报 1、重要数据方面，美国4月CPI数据将于周二公布，美国4月PPI和零售销售数据、欧元区一季度GDP、 英国一季度GDP将于周四公布。中国4月金融数据将于下周不定期发布。 2、财报方面，下周二发布财报的重要公司有：京东、软银、本田汽车等，周三有腾讯、索尼、保时捷 等，周四有阿里巴巴、网易、贝壳、吉利汽车等。 3、下周A股市场将有28家公司限售股陆续解禁，合计解禁市值达186.30亿元。解禁市值位居前三的分别 是国金证券、强瑞技术、江苏华辰，分别为41.66亿元、32.43亿元、26.44亿元。 4、下周A股暂无新股申购，有一只新股上市，为天工股份。天工股份将于5月13日在北交所上市，公司 主要从事钛及钛合金材料的研发、生产与销售。 5、下周央行公开市场将有8361亿元逆回购到期，其中周一至周五分别到期0亿元、4050亿元、1955亿 元、1586亿元、770亿元。此外，周四还有1250亿元MLF到期。 6、经中拉双方共同商定，中国—拉美和加勒比国家共同体论坛第四届部长级会议将于5月13日在北京举 行。 7、普京提议于15日在土耳其恢复俄乌 ...

| 公开市场买断式逆回购业务公告 [2025]第4号 | | --- | | 明思 | 操作量 | | --- | --- | | 3个月(91天) | 7000亿元 | | 6个月(182天) | 5000亿元 | 缩量续作 为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，进一步丰富央行货币政策工具箱，早在去年10月，央行决定启用公开市场买断 式逆回购操作工具。 操作对象为公开市场业务一级交易商，原则上每月开展一次操作，期限不超过1年。公开市场买断式逆回购采用固 定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标，回购标的包括国债、地方政府债券、金融债券、公司信用类债券等。 目前看，我国货币政策工具箱中工具较为丰富，短期的主要有7天期公开市场逆回购操作，中期的则是1年期中期 借贷便利（MLF），买断式逆回购则是中短期流动性投放工具。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘佳 北京报道 4月央行开展1.2万亿元买断式逆回购操作。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，4月30日，央行发布公告称，4月以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了 12000亿元买断式逆回购操作。其中，3个月期限为7000亿元，6个月期限为5000亿元。 ...

从公开市场来看，央行今日开展5308亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%，与此前持平。为了呵护 资金面平稳，叠加上周五的MLF操作，最近5个交易日，央行累计净投放已超过1万亿元。受此影响， 跨月资金面整体较为平稳，Shibor短端品种多数上行。隔夜品种上行21.9BP报1.76%；7天期上行1.4BP 报1.762%；14天期上行0.3BP报1.781%；1个月期下行0.2BP报1.743%。 值得注意的是，从交易数据来看，昨日不少公募资金已经提前"抢跑"。回顾4月29日的现券交易数据， 当日公募净买入利率债达到444亿元，其中7-10年买入150亿元以上，20-30年买入145亿元以上，而4月 28日的交易数据还是净卖出30亿元左右。 有交易员表示，今日债市的整体交易主线较为清晰，分别围绕宏观数据和资金价格两点展开。4月官方 制造业PMI超预期，财新制造业PMI则低于预期，数据有强有弱，相对利好债市。其次，近五个交易日 央行均维持净投放，呵护资金面态势明显，跨月资金面整体较为平稳。 4月30日，国债期货涨跌不一，2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.04%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合 约涨0.05%，1 ...

央行4月开展1.2万亿元买断式逆回购。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）4月30日发布公告称，4月央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1.2万亿元买断式 逆回购操作，分别为3个月（91天）7000亿元、6个月（182天）5000亿元。当天，央行还发布公告称，在4月未开展公开市场国债买卖操作。 | 期限 | 操作量 | | --- | --- | | 3个月(91天) | 7000亿元 | | 6个月(182天) | 5000亿元 | 鉴于4月分别有1.2万亿元3个月期和5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，当月3个月期买断式逆回购净回笼5000亿元。结合4月央行中期借贷便利（MLF）净 投放5000亿元，当月结束了去年10月以来央行持续释放中长期流动性的操作过程。 4月买断式逆回购缩量续作，并不意味着央行正在收紧市场流动性。"回顾历史可以看到，降准和央行中期流动管理工具之间存在替代关系。"东方金诚首席宏 观分析师王青向证券时报记者指出，央行将通过多种政策工具组合，引导市场流动性稳中向宽。 公开市场买断式逆回购操作、公开市场国债买卖操作以及MLF操作是在央行每日根据一级交易商需 ...

招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼指出，4月以来，政府债券加快发行，今年拟发 行的1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元特别国债对市场流动性需求更大。而当前国际经贸背景下， 外部冲击加剧，稳增长、稳外贸等压力增大。在没有实施降准的情况下，央行通过MLF和逆回购操 作，向市场注入中期和短期流动性，有助于维护"五一"前后市场流动性充裕，更好地应对政府债券发行 等因素对流动性的影响。同时，有助于提振信心、稳定预期，支持银行更好地服务实体经济特别是外贸 企业，更好地稳定出口、提振消费、扩大内需。 中国外汇交易中心数据显示，加量投放流动性的变化也反映在市场资金面上。4月30日，上海银行间同 业拆放利率（Shibor）涨跌互现，隔夜Shibor报1.7600%，7天Shibor报1.7620%，14天Shibor报1.7810%， 1月Shibor报1.7430%，1年Shibor报1.7660%。其中，7天期和14天期品种涨幅明显收窄，1月期品种连续3 天下降，1年期品种连续2天下降。 央广网北京4月30日消息（记者 冯方）节前最后一个工作日，央行继续加量投放流动性。4月30日，央 行以固定利率、数量招 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].

大家好，我是草根股民，大树遮阴。连续几日都是围绕着3300点窄幅震荡，看似要跌下来，就是跌不下来，原因大家都知道，还是神秘资金在护着指数，上 攻又攻不上去，上不上，下不下，市场情绪就很谨慎了，这种纠结就很考验人的意志了，现在保持头脑清醒是最重要的，头脑发昏，出现错误，你的损失就 是别人的福利了。 马上就是五一长假了，节前有部分资金会离场，节日效应会影响，也是量能起不来的一个因数。 还有三个交易日，这个月就结束了，那会不会在这三个交易日就把缺口补了？这个情况可能性不大，还有一个星期，年报，季报都要全部出来，总的来看， 成绩不是太好，没有超预期，部分年报好的被一季报的业绩又泼冷水了，还有的只是止住血了，真的满血还没有，更有个别的还在推迟出报告，给人一种不 好的预兆，蹦出颗雷也说不定。靠好业绩来带动的想法也可能不行，还剩三个交易日，没特别大的利好出来，大涨还是不会有的，也可能就是现在这样窄幅 震荡结束月行情。 今日央行6000亿元的MLF操作，等于是给市场投放5000亿元的动力，也只带来一点小躁动，中小盘股回补了不少，上证指数反而跌了两点，这就是还没有 形成合力的表现，机会还都是在板块快速轮动进行，这对我们散户来回 ...