Group 1 - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 500 billion yuan for 6 months on August 15, following a previous operation of 700 billion yuan for 3 months on August 8, resulting in a total of over 300 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity injection this month [1] - The market anticipates that the central bank may increase the amount of MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) after 300 billion yuan matures this month [1] - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has cooled, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rising to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, and marking the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - The initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below expectations and at the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The continuing jobless claims fell to 1.953 million, slightly below expectations, but still hovering at high levels since 2021 [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【央行开展逆回购操作，美联储降息预期受挫及美国失业数据公布】央行公告透露，将于8月15日开展 5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限6个月。叠加8月8日开展的7000亿3个月期买断式逆回购，本月央行买 断式逆回购已累计超额续作3000亿元，有效注入中期流动性。市场预计本月3000亿元MLF到期后，央 行也可能加量续作。 美联储9月降息预期再度受挫。美国7月PPI同比飙升至3.3%，为今年2月以来最高 水平，远超预期的2.5%；环比上涨0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅。旧金山联储主席戴利反对9月会 议大幅降息50个基点，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比敦促在通胀受控前勿"仓促"降息。 美国上周初请失业 金人数下降3000人至22.4万人，低于预期，维持在2021年11月以来低位。前一周续请失业金人数降至 195.3万人，略低于预期，但仍徘徊于2021年以来高位。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After a period of oscillation, index futures still have support for a rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: On August 14, the closing prices of major indexes were as follows: CSI 300 at 4173.31 (down 0.08%), SSE 50 at 2829.47 (up 0.59%), CSI 500 at 6429.85 (down 1.20%), and CSI 1000 at 6976.49 (down 1.24%). The corresponding futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.07%, IH up 0.46%, IC down 1.11%, and IM down 1.02% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 26,975 lots, IH by 20,405 lots, IC by 5,277 lots, and IM by 36,064 lots. In terms of open interest, IF increased by 5,578 lots, IH by 3,248 lots, IC decreased by 9,652 lots, and IM decreased by 6,229 lots [2] 3.2 Index Futures Base Spread - The base spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends over a certain period, as shown in the corresponding base spread charts [4] 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - For different index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM), the top 20 members' long and short positions had various changes, including increases and decreases in different contracts [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6] - **Important Drivers**: The central bank plans to conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, and the total outright reverse repurchase in August has exceeded the roll - over amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the roll - over amount after the 300 - billion - yuan MLF matures this month. The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated as the US July PPI soared year - on - year and环比, and some Fed officials opposed a large - scale rate cut [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.46% at 3666.44 after breaking through 3700 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. A - share trading volume reached 2.31 trillion yuan, up from 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. Most stocks fell, and certain sectors showed different performance trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has significantly increased the scale of reverse repurchase operations in June and July, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity in the financial system [3]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - In June and July, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations amounting to 14,000 billion yuan each month, achieving a net injection of 2,000 billion yuan [3]. - The operations in June included injections of 10,000 billion yuan at the beginning of the month and 4,000 billion yuan in the middle of the month, while July saw a 14,000 billion yuan injection in mid-month [3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - In August, 9,000 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements are set to mature, which exceeds the current injection volume, indicating potential liquidity tightening [3]. - Analyst Wang Qing anticipates that the central bank will conduct another 6-month reverse repurchase operation within August, alongside the expected rollover of 3,000 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [3]. - The expectation is that the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system during the peak of government bond issuance [3].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - In August, there are 400 billion yuan of 3-month and 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing, indicating potential further operations to maintain liquidity [1][2] - The central government's push for accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds is expected to keep liquidity conditions stable in August, despite some tightening pressures in the medium-term market [2] Group 2 - The PBOC is likely to continue using MLF and reverse repos to inject medium-term liquidity, supporting the ongoing government bond issuance peak [2] - The manufacturing PMI index has shown signs of contraction, indicating increased economic downward pressure, which may lead to potential rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-shares continued to rise strongly with ample market liquidity, and the margin balance returned above 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, with the margin trading balance reaching a new high since July 1, 2015. The current stock index valuation is still supported, and it is advisable to buy stock indices opportunistically [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.10 bp increase, DR007 at 1.46 with a 1.12 bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a 4.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.50 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with no change, 1-year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 0.52 bp decrease, 5-year treasury bond at 1.56 with a 0.97 bp decrease, 10-year treasury bond at 1.70 with a 0.40 bp decrease, and 10-year US treasury bond at 4.22 with no change [4] - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 300 million yuan, MLF a net injection of 10 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan, short-term reverse repurchase a net injection of 18.8 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 20 billion yuan. No open market treasury bond transactions were conducted in July [4] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4113 with a 0.24% increase, SSE 50 at 2797 with a 0.24% increase, CSI 500 at 6357 with a 0.86% increase, and CSI 1000 at 6861 with a 1.09% increase [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.7341 trillion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with the shipbuilding sector rising significantly, and the rubber products, motor, aerospace, gaming, general equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors led the losses [5] - IF volume was 73,908 with an 8.2% decrease, and open interest was 253,006 with a 1.0% decrease; IH volume was 36,686 with a 9.9% decrease, and open interest was 91,160 with a 1.7% decrease; IC volume was 72,137 with a 9.5% increase, and open interest was 219,342 with a 2.0% increase; IM volume was 176,382 with a 13.6% increase, and open interest was 341,310 with a 3.4% increase [5] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - Premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's attitude towards the funding environment remains unchanged, indicating that there is no basis for tightening the funding situation in August [1] Group 1: Funding Situation - It is expected that the net financing of government bonds in August will be between 1.17 trillion and 1.39 trillion yuan, which is close to July's figures [1] - Starting in August, the maturity and operation timing of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will align, both occurring on the 25th of each month [1] - The combined maturity of MLF and reverse repos in August is 1.2 trillion yuan, which is lower than July's 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Since May, the combined net injection from MLF and reverse repos has been positive, suggesting that there is no need for excessive concern regarding the funding environment [1]

新华财经北京7月28日电（刘润榕）人民银行28日开展4958亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%， 与此前持平；鉴于当日有1707亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放3251亿元。 上周（7月21日-25日）央行公开市场全口径合计实现净投放1295亿元。此外，上周有1200亿国库现金定 存到期，周三财政部开展1000亿元1M国库现金定存操作，中标利率1.78%，较前值下行30BP。 资金面可谓经历"过山车"行情。周初税期已过、跨月未至，资金面如期转松，隔夜利率重回1.40%附 近，然而伴随央行税期逆回购投放悉数回笼，资金面逐步收敛，不过绝对水平并不算太高，21-23日隔 夜利率依然分布在OMO利率附近，7天资金价格也基本稳定在1.50%以下。24日资金面"超预期"收敛， 隔夜利率迅速攀升至1.65%以上，7天资金也迅速提价上行近10BP；与此同时，央行公告7月MLF续做 4000亿元，全月净投放1000亿元，7月中长期资金累计净投放3000亿元。25日，资金面压力略有缓和， 隔夜利率回落，R001、DR001分别下行14、13BP，分别收至1.55%、1.52%。不过，7天资金可支持跨 月，7天资金 ...

Report Title - Fund Selling, Rural Commercial Banks Buying - Tracking of Liquidity and Institutional Behavior [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week (July 21 - July 25), the money market rates generally increased, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and funds reduced leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit increased, and the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors decreased. In the cash bond market, rural commercial banks were the main buyers, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds were the main sellers, mainly reducing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds [3] Summary by Directory 1. Money and Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: A total of 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total investment of 1656.3 billion yuan. On Friday, 200 billion yuan of MLF matured and 400 billion yuan was invested, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 129.5 billion yuan for the whole week [7][10] - **Funding Rates**: As of July 25, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.55%, 1.69%, 1.52%, and 1.65% respectively, with changes of 6.41BP, 18.65BP, 6.08BP, and 14.56BP compared to July 18, and were at the 24%, 13%, 22%, and 9% historical percentiles respectively [7][13] - **Net Funding Flows of Main Institutions**: The net borrowing of the main funding providers (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) was 448.6 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 61.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net borrowing of fund companies and securities companies was - 270.5 billion and - 162.7 billion yuan respectively, with the net borrowing of fund companies decreasing by 309.6 billion yuan and that of securities companies decreasing by 155.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][17] - **Repo Market**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.7 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 8.04 trillion yuan, a 6.27% increase compared to the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 88.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.3%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week's average [7] - **Leverage Ratio**: As of July 25, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 186.5%, 127.4%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of - 0.12BP, - 15.49BP, 1.12BP, and - 0.53BP compared to July 18, and were at the 16%, 0%, 62%, and 23% historical percentiles respectively [7][26] 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and Financing of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased this week, with a total issuance of 515.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 429.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 560.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 702.86 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][30] - **Maturity of Certificates of Deposit**: The maturity volume of certificates of deposit increased this week, with a total maturity of 1076.48 billion yuan, an increase of 273.67 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (July 28 - August 1), 376.74 billion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature [7][30][36] - **Interest Rates of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of all banks and at all tenors increased. As of July 25, the one - year issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased by 4.17BP, 1BP, 0.17BP, and 1BP respectively compared to July 18. The issuance interest rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit increased by 0.59BP, 2.15BP, and 4.86BP respectively compared to July 18 [39] - **Shibor Rates**: The Shibor rates increased this week. As of July 25, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor rates increased by 5.8BP, 12.6BP, 16.8BP, 0.9BP, and 0.4BP respectively compared to July 18 [42] - **Yields of Certificates of Deposit at Maturity**: The yields of certificates of deposit at maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit increased by 4.01BP, 4.69BP, 6.16BP, 5.06BP, and 5.75BP respectively compared to July 18 [44] - **Bill Interest Rates**: The bill interest rates decreased. As of July 25, the 3M direct discount rate, 3M transfer discount rate, 6M direct discount rate, and 6M transfer discount rate of national - owned shares decreased by 5BP, 13BP, 8BP, and 9BP respectively compared to July 18 [7][47] 3. Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Cash Bond Trading**: Rural commercial banks were the main buyers in the cash bond market this week, with a net purchase of 261.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. Funds were the main sellers, with a net sale of 358.7 billion yuan, also an increase compared to the previous week. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Funds**: Funds reduced their holdings of cash bonds by 358.7 billion yuan, including a reduction of 236.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 22.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 61.2 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 39.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly reduced their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 1 - 5 - year credit bonds [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Wealth Management Products**: Wealth management products increased their holdings of cash bonds by 107.6 billion yuan, including an increase of 26.6 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in credit bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 50.5 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds with a tenor of less than 1 year [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Rural Financial Institutions**: Rural financial institutions increased their holdings of cash bonds by 261.7 billion yuan, including an increase of 271.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 4.5 billion yuan in credit bonds, 36.6 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 50.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Insurance Companies**: Insurance companies increased their holdings of cash bonds by 115.9 billion yuan, including an increase of 66.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 12.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 8 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 29.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 20 - 30 - year interest - rate bonds and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds [50]

中国央行：2025年7月25日（周五），将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。🗒️周五有2000亿元1年期MLF和1875亿元7天期逆回购到期。 ...