《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，上周，债市出现修复行情，各主要债券收益率有所下行。与之对应，权 益市场上周波动明显，尤其是A股市场上周回调较深，成为债市行情修复的又一推手。 然而，业内对于当下的债市修复空间仍持有谨慎的态度，认为目前扰动债市的因素还有许多，债市接下 来仍以震荡的形式发展，需要应对避险情绪变化带来的影响。 不少分析依然偏谨慎 不过，对于接下来的债市展望，不少分析依然偏谨慎。诺安基金分析指出，四季度的经济数据可能会有 收敛，一是因为去年基数较高，二是高频数据显示内需和地产有弱化趋势，需要增量政策刺激。 此外，贸易摩擦也存在一定不确定性，尾部风险有所增加，基本面对债券的有利因素在积累。但机构行 为方面，公募销售新规带来的影响可能还没被充分定价。因此策略上，中短端杠杆套息为主、利率债波 段操作的确定性更高。 债基纷纷提升净值精度 相比于债市的短期修复，资金的动向更有参考意义。从基金表现来看，近期的债基赎回压力依然不小， 许多基金都在提升净值精度应对冲击。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，近期，圆信永丰丰和中短债C、华泰紫金智盈E等多只债基都在发布提 高基金份额净值精度的公告，反映出部分产品正面临一定的流动性管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the bond market is influenced by factors such as trade tensions and inflation readings, with expectations for continued support from fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed improvement from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with fluctuations in risk sentiment affecting bond yields [2]. - On Monday, bond yields rebounded due to shifting risk sentiment following easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2]. - Tuesday saw a correction in the equity market, leading to a recovery in the bond market as risk appetite shifted [2]. - On Wednesday, inflation data had minimal impact on the bond market, with slight increases in bond yields [3]. - Thursday continued the recovery trend in the bond market, with long-term bond yields declining significantly [3]. Group 2: Credit Market Dynamics - Short-term credit bonds performed better this week, with yields decreasing by up to 6 basis points [4]. - The credit spread for short-term bonds also narrowed, with notable reductions in the spreads for AAA-rated bonds [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Bond Market Recovery - The recovery in the bond market is driven by three main factors: changes in U.S.-China trade relations, lack of inflationary pressure, and the need for supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - The upcoming APEC summit and potential new tariffs are expected to increase market uncertainty, boosting demand for bonds as a safe haven [5]. - Current inflation trends show no signs of recovery, with PPI and CPI data indicating stability but not upward movement, necessitating further policy support [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Insights - Recent fiscal policy updates include the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting effective investment [7]. - The early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026 indicates a proactive approach to fiscal management, with an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year [7]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and the resumption of bond purchases to support fiscal measures [8]. - The central bank's emphasis on detailed implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy suggests readiness for further actions in the fourth quarter [8]. Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current environment indicates limited risk of rising bond yields, with a strong need for favorable interest rates to support fiscal supply, suggesting a continued basis for the bond market's recovery [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures declining across the board and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points, indicating a significant pullback in the long end of the curve [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.37% at 115.300, the 10-year main contract down 0.14% at 108.110, the 5-year main contract down 0.11% at 105.655, and the 2-year main contract down 0.04% at 102.334 [2]. - Interbank yields for major bonds rose, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.918%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.765% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.77 basis points to 3.466% and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.013% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.669% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.5549% for 182 days, 1.7285% for 3 years, and 1.7962% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.79, 2.28, and 2.51 respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.317% and the 7-day rate up by 0.3 basis points to 1.418% [6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September, while real estate development investment fell by 13.9% [7]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted a recent recovery in the bond market due to changes in U.S.-China trade tensions and rising market risk aversion, with expectations for continued monetary policy support [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested that while trade tensions may persist, the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a preference for short-term trading strategies [9].

上周（10.13-10.19），债市出现修复性行情，中证10年期国债到期收益率由1.85%下行至1.82%；10年期国开债与国债利差由18.5bp下行至16.54bp。 不仅是国债品种，信用债方面，中证5年期企业债到期收益率（AAA）由2.16%下行至2.1%；5年期企业债（AAA）与国债利差由54.95bp下行至51.44bp。 与之对应的是权益市场的回调明显，特别是A股方面，上周各大指数跌幅明显，也使得一部分避险资金选择债市避险，进一步推升了债市的修复行情。 从基金的表现来看，上周纯债型基金出现了业绩修复，相较于连续数周均值低于0.01%的情况，上周中长期纯债基金、短债基金的业绩均值均有不错的提 升。Wind统计显示，前者的均值上周录得0.17%，后者录得0.07%。 头部业绩产品的统计当中，华泰保兴尊益利率债6个月A上周上涨1.68%，是纯债基金当中业绩最好的一只，总体统计显示，有10只纯债基金的单周业绩在 1%以上。这样的单只基金周收益统计情况在过去数周很少出现。 上周，债市出现修复行情，各主要债券收益率有所下行。与之对应，权益市场上周波动明显，尤其是A股市场上周回调较深，成为债市行情修复的又一推 手 ...

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% and the 5-year main contract up by 0.13% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.0790%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 1.7840% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a 287 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 40 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market saw an increase in overnight repurchase weighted rates above 1.44%, indicating a tightening funding situation despite the central bank's liquidity injections [2] Operational Suggestions - Despite a tightening funding situation, the bond market is showing signs of recovery due to improved cost-effectiveness and expectations of renewed bond purchases by the central bank [3] - The bond market remains uncertain, with factors such as market risk appetite and potential policy changes influencing future stability [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in China's export data, indicating a high growth rate in July, influenced by lower base effects and rising raw material prices, while also noting a widening year-on-year decline in exports to the US, suggesting a cooling effect in the coming months [3][4] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the open market, and interest rates for interbank deposits showing a decline, with 1Y AAA interbank deposit rates around 1.63% [3][4] Group 2 - In the primary market, there is an increase in subscription sentiment, with 52 bonds issued totaling 725.8 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 536.7 billion yuan, indicating improved market conditions compared to July [4] - The secondary market continues its recovery trend, with the 10Y government bond yield falling below 1.7%, driven by a favorable liquidity environment and the conclusion of negative factors from the political bureau meeting [5][6] Group 3 - The outlook for the market suggests that after a cooling of inflation trading, internal and external demand pressures will return to focus, which is favorable for the bond market, especially with new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The fiscal policy remains focused on implementing existing policies with limited potential for large-scale stimulus, which is beneficial for the bond market's recovery [5][6] - The monetary policy is characterized by a continuation of "moderate easing," with limited new policies expected, and the central bank showing willingness to maintain liquidity through various operations [6]

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a recent increase of 0.32%, with a latest price of 111.48 yuan as of August 4, 2025, and a cumulative increase of 0.61% over the past week as of August 1, 2025 [2] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need for financial support to sustain economic growth, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and reducing reserve requirements to maintain liquidity [2] - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase following a high-level meeting that stabilized market expectations, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds projected to return to previous levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [3] Market Performance - As of August 1, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 9.63% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 416 in the index bond fund category [4] - The fund has a maximum drawdown of 6.89% since inception, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [4] Fund Flow and Liquidity - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF is 15.197 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 213 million yuan recently, although there has been a net inflow of 861 million yuan over the past five trading days [3] - The trading volume indicates active market participation, with a turnover rate of 15.61% and a daily average transaction volume of 4.573 billion yuan over the past week [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's repair period will continue. In the first stage, interest rates will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether they can break through new lows depends on the performance of other markets and fundamental pressures. It is expected that the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term. If other markets have moderate growth and demand continues to slow, interest rates may hit new lows [7][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Repair Situation - This week, the bond market started a repair rally as expected, with yields across all tenors generally declining. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds dropped by 2.7bps and 2.3bps to 1.71% and 1.95% respectively. The repair of credit bonds was more significant, with the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds falling by 7.8bps and 6.4bps to 1.85% and 1.95% respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit also dropped by 3.6bps to 1.64% [1][9]. - The direct trigger for the bond market repair was the cooling of supply contraction expectations and the correction in commodities and the stock market. The Politburo meeting's mild stance on over - capacity governance led to a 3.8% decline in the Nanhua Industrial Products Index this week, and the stock market also adjusted, reducing risk appetite [1][9]. Fundamental Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Fundamentally, there is an increasing downward pressure. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a larger seasonal decline than in previous years. The new orders index dropped 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The service and construction PMIs also weakened, falling 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points to 50.0% and 50.6% respectively [2][10]. - Without sufficient demand, price increases are mostly structural, and terminal prices are unlikely to rise significantly. Rising upstream prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream sectors, and the cost is often passed on to the mid - and downstream industries, compressing their profits. Supply contraction also reduces investment and financing demand, not directly pushing up interest rates [2][15]. Bond Market's Own Conditions - The overall asset shortage situation persists. In terms of capital demand, there is a slowdown pressure. The bill rate has weakened significantly, with the 6 - month state - owned bill re - discount rate reaching a new low of 0.4% this week, indicating weak credit demand. Government bond supply will also decrease, with the remaining net financing of government bonds in the next five months expected to be 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease [3][16]. - In terms of capital supply, it remains abundant. The scales of bank deposits, insurance assets, wealth management products, and bond funds are all steadily increasing. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity, and the current loose money situation is expected to continue [3][16]. Impact of Treasury Tax Rate Adjustment - The adjustment of the treasury tax rate is mostly a one - time impact, increasing the tax burden on financial institutions such as banks. It benefits old bonds and is negative for financial bonds and new bonds. The new - old bond yield spread may widen by 5.6 - 10.8bps, and the estimated total tax increase is 31.55 billion yuan, mainly borne by banks. Public funds may gain a 3.08% tax advantage in interest income in the short term, but future tax adjustments for public funds need further observation [4][18]. Market Volatility and Fragility - Although the overall situation is favorable for the bond market, market volatility and fragility are increasing. As coupon rates decline, the proportion of trading positions is rising, and market institutions are extending durations to increase capital gains. In the second quarter, the average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds and medium - and long - term credit - bond funds increased significantly by 0.81 years and 0.94 years respectively, the largest single - quarter increase on record [5][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjusted significantly this week, but the short - term impact factors are temporary, and the bond market is expected to enter a repair phase. The short - term interest rate adjustment ceiling is clear, and the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. The bond interest rate is expected to hit a new low in the second half of the year [1][5][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Adjustment This Week - The bond market adjusted significantly this week, with long - term bonds adjusting more notably. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 6.7bps and 8.4bps to 1.73% and 1.97% respectively. The yields of Tier 2 capital bonds of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - also increased significantly, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose by 5.8bps to 1.675% [1][9] - The sharp decline in the bond market this week is due to multiple factors: the expectation of anti - involution policies pushed up commodity prices and the stock market; the central bank withdrew funds in the first four days of this week, and seasonal factors tightened the funds; the bond market adjustment may have led to the net value retracement of some asset management products, resulting in a negative feedback effect of redemptions [1][9] Short - term Nature of Impact Factors - Commodity prices tumbled on the night of Friday after a continuous rise last week. With strengthened regulatory control, the subsequent commodity price rally is expected to cool down, reducing the pressure on the bond market. The current price increase is more based on expectations, and its sustainability is to be observed [2][12] - The central bank's operation on Friday strengthened the protection of liquidity, and funds will not tighten in a trending manner. The central bank's net injection of 8018 billion yuan on Friday and the statement of the deputy governor indicate that the central bank will maintain liquidity stability, which helps to form an adjustment ceiling for the bond market, limiting the continuous adjustment space of the bond market [3][13] Unchanged Bond Market Trend - The bond market is still in an asset shortage pattern, and broad - spectrum interest rates are declining. The supply of assets will decrease in the next five months, while the allocation power is steadily increasing. The reduction of insurance reservation interest rates will further increase the allocation demand for long - term bonds [4][14] - The demand side is not strong, and the export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. The real estate market is weak, and investment and consumption growth rates have slowed down. The impact of anti - involution policies on supply also needs attention. Fundamental changes are the key to determining the interest rate trend [5][19] Bond Market Outlook - After the short - term shock, the bond market will enter a repair phase. The interest rate is expected to return to the previous level in the first stage, and whether it can break through the previous low later depends on the fundamentals and the pressure of asset shortage. The bond interest rate is expected to hit a new low in the second half of the year [5][19]