【环球网报道 记者 赵建东】美国联邦政府"停摆"15日进入第15天，"停摆"影响在全美范围持续蔓延。据英国《卫报》报道，特朗普政府因"停 摆"掀起的新一轮裁员潮引发广泛混乱和恐慌，大量联邦雇员着急忙慌地想要弄清楚自己工作是否还在。此外，由于工作邮箱权限被切断，众 多雇员无法查看自己是否收到"裁员名单"的通知，美教育部门一位匿名雇员透露："我的同事可以登上政府邮箱才发现自己被裁，我们其他人 现在惶惶不安，可能已被解雇却没办法知道。" 《卫报》称，对于上述问题，白宫将其转由美国联邦预算办公室处理，但该机构始终未作回应。美教育部门则自动回复邮件显示"因拨款中 断，我们目前处休假状态"。 美国财政部长贝森特13日在福克斯商业频道一档节目中说，"情况越来越严重"，政府"停摆"开始影响实体经济，影响民众生活。他说，为保证 军饷发放，联邦政府不得不暂停支付其他联邦雇员和服务机构员工的工资，其中包括史密森学会下属博物馆和国家动物园。美国共和党籍众议 院议长迈克·约翰逊当天预测称，此次"停摆"时长可能成为"历史之最"。 报道称，截至上周，已有7个机构约4200名联邦雇员被解雇，尽管美疾控中心700个裁员岗位在上周末紧急恢复，但 ...

近期，美国空中交通管制人员短缺导致全美多地航班延误。11日，美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）旗下的纽约、亚特兰大及新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基空域管 制中心均出现人手短缺。12日，全美航班延误或取消超过8200架次。 由于政府仍处于停摆状态，空管员与运输安全署（TSA）人员属"必要岗位"，需无薪继续工作。 美国联邦政府"停摆"的影响在全美范围持续蔓延。据美国媒体报道，14日，超过13000名空中交通管制人员收到了或许是他们本月能拿到的最后一笔工 资。如果政府停摆问题持续得不到解决，本月底的发薪日，他们将无法拿到任何工资。 ...

Core Insights - International spot gold prices have recently surged, breaking historical records, primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing US-China trade tensions, and political uncertainties prompting safe-haven buying [1][2] - Silver and other precious metals have also experienced significant price fluctuations amid these market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices have reached approximately $2,180 per ounce, with an intraday high of $2,185, marking a historical peak [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury yields has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on economic assessments being impacted by government shutdowns and slowing job market growth have been interpreted as signals for potential monetary policy easing [2] Group 2: Trade Relations and Political Factors - Ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations continue to affect market sentiment, reinforcing gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - The US government's "Section 232" investigation into critical minerals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, has entered its final stages, raising concerns about potential changes in trade policy [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Year-to-date, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all recorded substantial gains, driven by central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and expectations of rate cuts from major central banks [3]

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 72183 | 1455 | 美国众议院少数党领袖杰弗瑞斯（民主党）周一称，因特朗普未许可，议长约翰逊等共和党人无法就政 府关门谈判。现停摆已13天，若民主党拒共和党临时拨款法案，或刷新最长停摆纪录。共和党愿公开谈 判解决事务，拒做"人质式"协商。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（10月14日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计72183千克，今日仓单较 上一日增加1455千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周二（10月14日）黄金期货开盘价929.50元/克，截至目前最高958.10元/克， 最低929.14元/克。截止发稿报938.98元/克，涨幅2.70%，成交量为555171手，持仓为228459手，日持仓 减少11537手。 ...

当地时间10月14日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第14天，影响在全美范围内持续蔓延。受危机影响，美国 联邦政府部分功能陷于停滞，旅行、教育、文化、科技乃至国防等领域均受波及，部分机构甚至还因此 出现管理混乱事件。当天，白宫管理和预算办公室表示，将在政府"停摆"期间继续裁减联邦机构员工。 多领域受波及 公共服务陷入混乱 据美国媒体12日报道，在美国联邦政府"停摆"期间，美国疾病控制和预防中心数百名雇员于10日晚收到 了错误的裁员通知，一度陷入"被解雇"的窘境。不过，美国政府雇员联合会表示，在约1300名收到通知 的雇员中，约有700人已经复职，但仍有约600人被裁员。 僵局持续 美政府或走向史上最长"停摆" 由于民主、共和两党在医保相关福利支出等方面严重对立，美国国会参议院未能在9月30日上一财年结 束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 "停摆"即将进入第三周，在民众生活遭受严重影响之际，两党仍在核心议题上互不让步，陷入僵持。 此外，美国史密森学会称，旗下数十家博物馆、研究中心和国家动物园自12日起全部因政府"停摆"关 闭。 另据报道，美国空中交通管制人员短缺问题 ...

正值全球市场剧烈动荡的敏感时刻，北京时间今晚23:30鲍威尔将在费城全国商业经济学协会发表讲 话，这是其自上月FOMC会议后的首次公开亮相，投资者将密切关注其表态寻找利率政策走向的线索。 美联储在9月会议上将利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%区间，决定几乎获得一致通过，仅新任理事 Stephen Miran持异议，主张降息50个基点。 然而，美联储官员的经济预测却呈现不同景象：政策制定者几乎平分为两派，一派认为今年需要进一步 降息，另一派则认为当前政策立场已足够宽松。这种内部分歧增加了未来政策路径的不确定性。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 关键时点的政策信号 美联储的双重使命要求其追求充分就业和价格稳定，但当前面临相互竞争的担忧。劳动力市场降温的迹 象表明就业方面存在潜在脆弱性，而通胀率在近五年来一直顽固地高于央行2%的目标。这使得激进降 息的理由变得复杂。 如果鲍威尔重点关注劳动力市场，投资者将解读为为年底前再降息一到两次留下了空间。如果他倾向于 强调 ...

新华财经北京10月14日电 美国联邦政府"停摆"13日进入第13天，财政部长贝森特表示，这一轮"停 摆"已开始影响国家经济。美国共和党籍众议院议长迈克·约翰逊当天预测称，此次"停摆"时长可能成 为"历史之最"。 联邦政府"停摆"影响在全美范围持续蔓延。美国媒体报道，空中交通管制人员短缺造成更多航班延误， 12日全美近8000架次航班延误，270多个航班取消。政府"停摆"还影响农户补贴发放和小企业贷款。联 邦政府经济数据推迟发布导致企业难以制定未来规划。 《今日美国报》网站报道，政府"停摆"使数百万美国人依赖的国家洪水保险计划"面临瘫痪"。许多人因 不能获得联邦洪灾保险而无法办理住房抵押贷款。许多房主可能会在没有洪灾保险的情况下面临大西洋 飓风季长达两个月甚至更久的灾害天气。 美联社报道，如果"停摆"持续到10月底，包括数千名众议院助理在内的政府工作人员将拿不到工资。 正在走向"史上最长" 美国联邦政府最近、也是最长的一次"停摆"发生在2018年末至2019年初，当时国会没能通过包含美墨边 境"筑墙"费用的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府"停摆"35天。 "情况越来越严重" 美国联邦政府"停摆"即将进入第三周。贝森特 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are experiencing a significant decline in the afternoon trading session, influenced by fluctuations in international gold prices and market sentiment regarding economic conditions and monetary policy [1] Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) is down 7.64%, trading at HKD 32.88 [1] - China Gold International (02099) has decreased by 6.6%, currently at HKD 134.5 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 5.67%, now at HKD 32.3 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) is down 4.01%, trading at HKD 40.2 [1] Market Conditions - International gold prices saw a sharp decline, briefly dropping below USD 4,120 per ounce before rebounding, after previously surpassing the USD 4,170 mark [1] - CITIC Futures noted that trade tensions and expectations of monetary easing are driving gold prices, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock [1] - The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, leading to a market sentiment of "no data is bullish," which continues to drive buying [1] - A potential short-term technical correction may occur if overbought conditions arise, with USD 4,000 identified as a key support level, and increased price volatility could trigger profit-taking [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 13th day, significantly impacting the economy and the lives of citizens, as stated by Treasury Secretary Becerra [1][3] - The ongoing political stalemate between the two parties has left the public as the primary victims of the shutdown [1][6] Economic Impact - The shutdown is affecting the real economy and the daily lives of citizens, with federal employees and service agency staff facing wage suspensions [3] - Federal assistance to farmers has been halted, and small businesses are experiencing delays in loan approvals [3][4] - The shutdown is causing increased airport delays due to unpaid air traffic controllers, leading to operational bottlenecks even in open government departments [3] Political Stalemate - The Senate is set to vote on a temporary funding bill, but both parties continue to blame each other for the impasse, with no clear resolution in sight [6] - Republican House Speaker Johnson criticized the Democrats for causing essential services to stagnate, while Democratic leaders expressed willingness to negotiate but distrust towards Republicans [6] - Historical research indicates that parties using government shutdowns as leverage often face backlash from public opinion, suggesting that neither party will emerge as a true winner in this situation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]