原标题：美国联邦政府"停摆"刷新纪录（深度观察） 政治极化加剧经济民生困境 当地时间11月9日晚，美国国会参议院推进一项联邦政府临时拨款法案。这一法案在程序性投票中 获得了推进所需的60票支持，意味着它大概率将在正式投票中获得通过。截至11月10日，美国联邦政 府"停摆"已进入创纪录的41天。不少美国媒体分析认为，这场由两党博弈引发的治理危机严重冲击美国 民生与经济运行，政治极化加剧折射出美式民主的现实困境。美国参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默表 示，"孩子、老人、工薪阶层都成了政治闹剧的牺牲品"，但若不解决制度根源，这样的循环未来仍将上 演。 14次投票仍未通过临时拨款法案 9日晚，参议院以60票支持、40票反对的结果通过程序性投票，结束对拨款法案的"阻挠议事"。该 方案将按现有水平为大部分联邦机构提供资金至2026年1月30日，并为农业部、退伍军人事务部及军事 建设项目，以及国会运作提供整个财政年度的经费。作为结束"停摆"协议的一部分，参议院多数党领 袖、共和党人约翰·图恩向民主党人承诺，最迟在12月第二周，就延长即将于年底到期的《平价医疗法 案》加强型补贴进行投票。这一关键程序性投票之后，该法案大概率将在参议 ...

Core Points - The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history has entered its 37th day, leading to widespread economic and social impacts, with millions affected by the political deadlock [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are either furloughed or working without pay, pushing many American families into financial distress [2] - The food stamp program is facing imminent funding depletion, with nearly 5 million people expected to receive no benefits this month due to the shutdown [2] - The aviation industry is experiencing significant operational disruptions, with the FAA reporting staff shortages leading to flight delays at major airports, including an average delay of 45 minutes at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport [5][7] Group 2: Industry-Specific Effects - Major airlines, including United Airlines and Delta Airlines, are preemptively canceling flights due to the anticipated reduction in air traffic capacity, with United canceling about 200 flights, representing 4% of its schedule [7] - The shutdown is also impacting other critical sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, and logistics, which are under pressure from the ongoing political stalemate [8] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The inability of Congress to pass a temporary funding bill is primarily due to disagreements between the Democratic and Republican parties over healthcare spending, particularly related to the Affordable Care Act [11][13] - The political deadlock is characterized by mutual blame, with both parties using the situation to bolster their influence while millions of Americans suffer [14]

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by $110.67, a decrease of 2.68%, closing at $4002.48, but it has seen a cumulative increase of 3.7% in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Currently, gold is trading slightly higher around $4022 [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - As of October 31, the U.S. government shutdown has lasted for a month, and if a temporary funding bill is not passed by November 5, it will break the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history [4] - Approximately 42 million low-income individuals, disabled persons, and the elderly will lose access to food assistance programs starting November 1, exacerbating food security issues [4] - The ongoing political stalemate between the Democratic and Republican parties continues to hinder the passage of necessary funding legislation [4][5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a rate cut in December due to risks of slowing employment [6] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with the probability dropping from over 90% to approximately 63% [8] - Key economic data releases this week, including the ADP employment report and the ISM manufacturing index, will be closely monitored as they may influence the Fed's decision-making [9][11][12] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Economists predict that the October non-farm payrolls may show an increase of only about 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.4% [11] - The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly rise to 49.5, but rising input costs and sales prices could heighten concerns about persistent inflation [12] - Overall, the stock market is in a delicate phase characterized by short-term optimism driven by earnings, while long-term risks remain [12]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 27th day, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, significantly impacting various aspects of American society [1] - If the shutdown remains unresolved this week, an increasing number of Americans will face severe disruptions in their daily lives [1] Group 1: Impact on Social Programs - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced the suspension of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, which will cease distribution on November 1, affecting approximately 42 million people, or one-eighth of the U.S. population, primarily low-income individuals and disabled persons [3] - The Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, which provides nutritional assistance to about 7 million low-income mothers and children, is also on the verge of being halted, with funding expected to run out by November 1 [5] - The "Head Start" program, which supports early childhood education for over 800,000 children under the age of six, will see funding cuts starting November 1 due to the ongoing shutdown [5] Group 2: Impact on Community Services - A subsidy program for airline services in remote small communities is projected to run out of funds this weekend, jeopardizing essential air travel for these areas, which rely on the program for access to daily necessities and medical services [7] - The military is at risk of not receiving pay on the scheduled payday of October 31 if the shutdown continues, with many federal employees facing their first complete paycheck absence on October 28 and 30 [7]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its second week, with significant implications for various programs [2] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced that if the shutdown continues into November, it will cease funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2] - Approximately 42 million people rely on SNAP, primarily low-income individuals, disabled persons, and the elderly, who use government-subsidized food vouchers to purchase food [2] - Beneficiaries have expressed concerns about the potential interruption of aid, with some indicating they may resort to extreme measures, such as selling plasma, to support their families [2] - There are calls for bipartisan cooperation in Congress to reach a budget agreement for the upcoming year, rather than continuing political maneuvering [2]