加密货币概念股走强，第九城市涨超8%，Strategy涨超6%，MARA Holdings、Bullish涨超5%， CleanSpark、Bit Digital、Robinhood涨超4%，Circle、Coinbase涨超3%。比特币升至9万美元上方，过去 24小时涨超5%。(格隆汇) ...

以太坊升破2900美元，日内涨3.65%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to multiple factors, including macroeconomic policy expectations, institutional selling, and increased regulatory scrutiny, leading to a decline in both cryptocurrency prices and related stocks [3][4][10]. Market Performance - As of December 2, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks related to cryptocurrency continued to decline, with notable drops in companies like Jingbeifang and Hailian Jinhui, each down approximately 1% [3][4]. - Bitcoin saw a sharp decline, dropping nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,251 to below $84,000, while Ethereum experienced a larger drop of over 10% in a single day [3][4]. Institutional Behavior - Since September, large institutional investors have sold over $20 billion in cryptocurrency assets, with year-end profit-taking becoming more pronounced [7][10]. - The adjustment in institutional behavior is a core factor in the current market downturn, with a significant number of leveraged positions being liquidated [5][6]. Regulatory Impact - Recent regulatory developments in China have intensified scrutiny on virtual currencies, particularly stablecoins, which are now included in regulatory frameworks due to concerns over money laundering and fraud [11][12]. - The regulatory stance is seen as a reaffirmation of existing policies rather than a tightening, reflecting ongoing concerns about potential risks in the cryptocurrency sector [11][12]. Macroeconomic Factors - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts, which negatively impacts non-yielding assets like Bitcoin [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic signals has also contributed to volatility in traditional risk assets, amplifying the adjustments in the cryptocurrency market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to multiple factors, including macroeconomic policy expectations, institutional selling, and increased regulatory scrutiny, leading to a decline in both cryptocurrency prices and related stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong markets [1][2][5][6]. Market Performance - As of December 2, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks related to cryptocurrency continued to decline, with notable drops in companies like Jingbeifang, Hailian Jinhui, and Cuiwei Co., each down approximately 1% [1]. - Bitcoin saw a significant drop, falling to a low of below $84,000 on December 1, down nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,251 in early October. Ethereum experienced an even larger decline, with a single-day drop exceeding 10% [1][2]. Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors have been a core factor in the current market adjustment, with over $20 billion in cryptocurrency assets sold since September. The year-end period has heightened the tendency for institutions to lock in profits, leading to increased selling pressure [3][5]. - The flow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has also slowed, indicating a decrease in institutional risk appetite [3]. Leverage and Market Dynamics - The market experienced a significant leverage liquidation effect on December 1, with over 270,000 contracts forcibly liquidated, amounting to nearly $985 million, predominantly affecting long positions [2]. - The current market structure is characterized by a rapid liquidation process triggered by shifts in macroeconomic expectations, leading to a more pronounced decline in prices [2][4]. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has created uncertainty, with officials emphasizing persistent inflation and the need for restrictive monetary policy, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts [5]. - Regulatory developments in China have also impacted market sentiment, with a recent meeting involving multiple regulatory bodies reaffirming strict policies against virtual currency trading and emphasizing the risks associated with stablecoins [6][7].

Group 1 - The 16th VTB "Russia Calling!" Investment Forum will be held on December 2-3 at the Moscow World Trade Center, focusing on the theme "Reaching Higher: Bold Choices for the New Economy" [1] - The first day will feature two core topics: new directions for economic development and pathways for expanding national technology and industrial potential, along with international cooperation opportunities [3] - Key attendees include prominent figures such as VTB Bank President Andrey Kostin, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, among others [3] Group 2 - The second day's agenda will focus on cutting-edge investment strategies and new tools at the intersection of technology and finance, including discussions on IPOs, private equity, gold, real estate, and personal bond portfolios [4] - The forum will also address the growth drivers and development prospects of the Russian economy, capital market trends, liquidity management, AI applications in investment, and the potential of digital financial assets and cryptocurrency tools [4] - The forum has been held annually since 2009 and will expand its format to key regions across Russia starting in 2025, having previously hosted events in cities like St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg [5]

来源：@新财富杂志微博 【#加密货币大跌 超27万人爆仓#】12月1日上午，加密货币价格大幅走低，比特币早盘突发闪崩，价格 跌破8.7万美元。当天晚间，加密货币再度走低，比特币盘中一度下跌8%至83786美元。这也是自2025 年4月以来再次跌破8.7万美元。12月2日早间，比特币价格报86378美元/枚，下跌5%。以太坊的走势也 呈弱势，价格跌破2800美元/枚，日内跌6.36%。此外，XRP、BNB、索拉纳币均跌超6%。Coinglass数 据显示，过去24小时加密货币市场共有超27万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额高达9.85亿美元，其中多单爆仓8.7 亿美元，空单爆仓1.1亿美元。 来源：@新财富杂志微博 【#加密货币大跌 超27万人爆仓#】12月1日上午，加密货币价格大幅走低，比特币早盘突发闪崩，价格 跌破8.7万美元。当天晚间，加密货币再度走低，比特币盘中一度下跌8%至83786美元。这也是自2025 年4月以来再次跌破8.7万美元。12月2日早间，比特币价格报86378美元/枚，下跌5%。以太坊的走势也 呈弱势，价格跌破2800美元/枚，日内跌6.36%。此外，XRP、BNB、索拉纳币均跌超6%。Coing ...

即便在近期加密货币整体价格大幅向下调整之后，与加密货币相关的ETF仍然是美国基金管理行业历史 上增长速度最快的细分领域之一。加密货币多头们往往将先锋集团的"投降"式允许举措视作心理上的看 涨燃料，在他们看来，这最新一次迹象表明，传统金融机构的客户们已无法再抵挡比特币、以太坊等数 字资产的"强大引力"。 "加密货币ETF和共同基金已经在市场波动期间经受住了多次重大考验，证明能够在保持流动性的同时 按设计正常经营。"先锋集团经纪与投资业务主管安德鲁·卡杰斯基(Andrew Kadjeski)在采访中表示。"服 务此类基金所需的行政流程已日趋成熟;而投资者们偏好也在持续演变。" 智通财经APP获悉，资产管理规模仅次于贝莱德的全球第二大资产管理公司先锋集团(Vanguard Group) 已决定，允许主要持有加密货币的ETF产品以及共同基金在其大型资管平台上交易，这标志着其对于加 密货币长期以来的谨慎立场的重大逆转。 先锋集团(Vanguard Group)是全球第二大资管巨头，管理约10万亿美元以及约5000万证券资产客户，资 管规模在全球范围内仅次于贝莱德，之前一直公开拒绝提供任何比特币或加密相关ETF的交易渠道 ...

那么，究竟是什么原因引发了这场加密货币市场的"大地震"呢？据了解，美联储12月降息预期降温成为 了主要"导火索"。近日，美联储内部分歧加剧，三位高级官员在同一天对通胀问题表达担忧，这使得12 月降息前景更加不明朗。随着市场对美联储12月降息预期概率跌破50%，投资者开始系统性撤离高风险 资产头寸，加密货币作为典型的风险资产，自然首当其冲。 摩根士丹利在最新研报中指出，若12月美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议按兵不动，美元 流动性边际收紧，将直接压制包括比特币在内的非生息资产表现。CoinShares研究主管James Butterfill也 表示，自9月以来，大户已抛售逾200亿美元的加密资产，所谓"四年周期论"正成为巨鲸减仓的"自我实 现预言"。在去杠杆压力下，散户高杠杆多头成为了最大的受害者。 不过，对于加密货币市场的未来，也有不同的观点。Hotcoin Research最新观点认为，经历2024 - 2025 年，市场参与者结构已焕然不同。机构资金占比提高意味着未来价格波动将更受基本面和数据驱动，短 期情绪影响相对减弱。后续机构博弈与理性定价将成为常态，2026年的比特币市场将更加成熟理性， ...

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $87,000 for the first time since April 2025, and further falling to $83,786, marking an 8% decrease in a single day [2] - Ethereum also showed weakness, falling below $2,800 with a daily drop of 6.36%, while other cryptocurrencies like XRP, BNB, and Solana dropped over 6% [2] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 270,000 traders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount of $985 million, including $870 million from long positions [2] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.89%, Nasdaq down 0.38%, and S&P 500 down 0.53%, particularly affected by the drop in cryptocurrency-related stocks [2] - The expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has diminished, putting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [3] - Since September, large investors have sold over $20 billion in cryptocurrency assets, indicating a trend of de-leveraging among retail investors [3] Group 3 - The structure of market participants is changing, with an increase in institutional funding, suggesting that future price movements will be more driven by fundamentals and data rather than short-term sentiment [3] - Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger more aggressive sell-offs, with a potential target price near $74,000, indicating about 30% downside from current levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - MicroStrategy has established a $1.44 billion cash reserve to navigate the "crypto winter" and has acknowledged the potential sale of Bitcoin under specific conditions, marking a significant shift from its previous "never sell" stance [1][3][7]. Financial Strategy - The $1.44 billion reserve was funded through stock sales, aimed at ensuring the company can cover at least 12 months of dividends and interest payments, with plans to extend this to 24 months [6][9]. - The company currently faces a debt burden of $8.2 billion in convertible bonds, with annual interest and preferred stock dividend expenses around $800 million [9][10]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, MicroStrategy's stock price fell over 12% intraday, reflecting investor concerns about the sustainability of its business model amid the "crypto winter" [3][14]. - Bitcoin's price also dropped over 4% in response to the news, indicating a broader market impact [14][19]. Debt Pressure - The company is under significant pressure from its convertible bonds, which could lead to cash repayment demands if stock prices remain low, potentially forcing the sale of Bitcoin [9][10]. - Standard & Poor's has rated MicroStrategy at "B-", highlighting liquidity risks associated with its convertible bonds [9]. Strategic Shift - The introduction of the "mNAV" metric, which compares the company's enterprise value to its cryptocurrency holdings, indicates a new threshold for potential Bitcoin sales if mNAV falls below 1 [7][8]. - CEO Phong Le emphasized that selling Bitcoin would only occur under extreme conditions, but this has led to speculation about a possible sell-off [10][12]. Performance Outlook - MicroStrategy's performance forecast has dimmed, with potential net losses of $5.5 billion to net profits of $6.3 billion depending on Bitcoin's year-end price [20]. - This contrasts sharply with previous projections of achieving $24 billion in net profit by 2025 [20].