1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, leading to a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure and the US dollar index remaining volatile [1][14][17][19]. - Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. In the future, the strength of China's domestic economic recovery will gradually play a more important role in pricing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of incremental policies [2][28]. - The market does not think the result of Sino - US trade negotiations is beyond expectations. Coupled with the news that the central bank is evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchase, treasury bond futures are relatively strong [3]. - Steel prices are oscillating. Although the current fundamental contradictions are not significant, the rainy season in East China has significantly suppressed the demand for building materials, and concerns about weakening external demand are difficult to reverse, so there is limited room for price rebound [4][40]. - After the stabilization of the futures market last week, the price of FMB ore has rebounded slightly recently. It remains to be seen whether the ore price can stabilize at $600 [5][65]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Tensions in the Middle East have led to market concerns and a sharp increase in oil prices [6][70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US budget deficit in May was $316 billion, a reduction compared to May 2024. The total customs duties in May reached a record $23 billion, almost four times that of May 2024. The budget expenditure in May was at a record high for that month [13]. - The US May CPI was lower than market expectations. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, mainly driven by geopolitical risks. The market's concerns about the Fed's monetary policy have weakened, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the June meeting. Gold has not broken out of the volatile range, and the market's long - short game has increased. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range with increased market fluctuations [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government's fiscal deficit in May further expanded. Although the deficit in May 2025 decreased by 9% compared to May 2024, the annual deficit increased by 14% year - on - year [16]. - The US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, indicating a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure. The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [17][19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated. The US has ordered the partial evacuation of embassy staff in Iraq and allowed military families to leave the Middle East [21]. - The US May CPI has been lower than expected for four consecutive months. The CPI growth rate was lower than expected, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. However, the slow progress of US - EU negotiations and the deterioration of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in US stocks. US stocks have not broken out of the volatile market, and it is not recommended to chase the high [22][24][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will implement zero - tariff policies on 100% of tariff items for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [26]. - Sino - US negotiations have reached a framework on the Geneva Consensus. Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [28][29]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [30]. - Sino - US negotiations have basically reached a framework on implementing the Geneva Consensus. The market has strengthened due to the logic of disappointing Sino - US trade negotiations and weak domestic economic data. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to buy bonds and accumulate long positions [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its export sales report on Thursday. The market expects that the net increase in US soybean export sales for the current year as of June 5 will be between 1 - 5 million tons, and for the 25/26 year, it will be between 0 - 2 million tons [32]. - On June 11, the transaction volume of soybean meal was large. The import of Brazilian soybeans has decreased in cost, and domestic funds have shown a clear trend of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report [33][35][36]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 10 decreased by 17.24% month - on - month. The palm oil market adjusted yesterday, with palm oil leading the decline. It is believed that palm oil is in the bottom - building stage, and long positions can be considered [37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The steel price continues to oscillate, and there is limited room for price rebound. It is recommended to use the spot end for hedging on price rebounds [38][40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of early June, over 90% of Australia's new cotton has been harvested, and the total output is expected to be 5.4 million bales. As of June 7, the sowing progress of US new cotton is still behind. The external market is expected to remain weakly volatile at a low level in the short term. Domestically, the textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the market is expected to be cautiously optimistic [41][43][44]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On June 11, the price of steam coal in the northern ports remained stable. The coal price has temporarily stabilized, but there is a risk of a second bottom - hitting in summer. Attention should be paid to the growth rate of thermal power consumption and the substitution of new energy [45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Many automobile enterprises have promised to pay within 60 days. The overall market sentiment has eased, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are seasonally weak, and the market is expected to remain volatile. An oscillating market mindset is recommended [46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In May, the sales volume and revenue of some pig - raising enterprises decreased year - on - year. In the short to medium term, the price may be at its most pessimistic from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. In the long term, the industry bottom may be approaching. It is recommended to wait and see [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production start - up rate has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. The supply - demand structure is improving. CS07 - C07 is expected to remain volatile at a low level, and CS09 - C09 is expected to recover, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continues to decline rapidly, and the spot price of corn has strengthened. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with an oscillating trend. It is recommended to hold the 07 long - positions with low costs and wait and see, and not to transfer the long - positions to the 09 contract [52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes. In June, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a significant impact on the fundamentals. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended, with the catalyst/risk being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. In June, some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, while most in Yunnan are still observing. The demand is not significantly improved. The futures price is expected to be volatile at a low level, and short - selling on price rebounds can be considered [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.55 per ton. The demand for lead has bottomed out and shows no improvement, while supply disruptions are the main factor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - line low - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $33.05 per ton. The zinc price has oscillated upwards, mainly due to improved macro - sentiment. In June, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to peak, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will gradually emerge. Short - selling on price rebounds is recommended [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Philippines has removed the ban on nickel ore exports from its mining fiscal system bill. The LME has reduced inventory, and SHFE has increased warehouse receipts. The nickel price is expected to be volatile at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side of the futures market and consider selling put options on price dips [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. The inventory accumulation pressure in June has been significantly relieved, and the market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking state. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [64][65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China is stable, and the US C3 inventory has increased. The domestic futures price is expected to be supported by the strengthening of oil prices [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US has authorized the voluntary evacuation of military families from the Middle East. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Oil prices have risen significantly due to Middle East tensions, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to increase [68][70][71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On June 11, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was partially adjusted downwards. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The decline of the 09 contract is limited due to good supply - demand and excessive discount [72][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market has mostly declined. The futures price is expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [75][76]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder in the domestic market is oscillating. The futures price is also expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - On June 11, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased. The styrene futures price is oscillating upwards. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential compression of intermediate - link profits after the return of downstream plants and the potential impact of new production capacity in the medium term [78][80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some local decreases. The industry is facing high supply pressure and low processing fees. It is recommended to consider taking long positions in bottle - chip processing fees on price dips [81][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On June 11, the soda ash market in Shahe was average, and the futures price was oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds in the medium term [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On June 11, the price of float glass in Shahe was mostly stable. The futures price is slightly oscillating, and the fundamental driving force is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify. The spot price may continue to decline [85][86].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing negotiations between the US and China regarding rare earth resources highlight the strategic importance of these materials, with the US seeking to alleviate its dependence on China while facing challenges in securing alternative sources [1][3][5]. Group 1: US-China Negotiations - The US has proposed a "three-for-one" trade deal involving rare earths in exchange for lifting restrictions on key technologies, but the specifics of the concessions remain vague and lack strategic value for China [3][5]. - The US is attempting to pressure China into relaxing its export controls on rare earths, but China is unlikely to make concessions without substantial and genuine US commitments [1][3]. Group 2: Rare Earths Dependency - The US military heavily relies on Chinese rare earths, with over 80% of the heavy rare earths needed for advanced military technologies sourced from China [5]. - Despite attempts to source rare earths from other countries, the US has found that the refining process remains dependent on Chinese technology, which is significantly advanced [5][11]. Group 3: Ukraine's Role - The US is trying to prevent China from entering the Ukrainian rare earth market, believing that Ukraine's resources could be a potential lifeline for the US [7][8]. - However, Ukraine's high-quality mineral resources are largely in Russian-controlled areas, limiting the potential for US access to these resources [8][10]. Group 4: China's Position - China has developed a self-sufficient rare earth industry and does not require Ukrainian resources, as it has established partnerships in Africa and Southeast Asia for rare earth projects [11][13]. - The geopolitical instability in Ukraine increases investment risks, making China's existing partnerships in more stable regions more attractive [11][13].

美国总统特朗普：愿意延长贸易谈判的截止期限，但认为这并非必要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated a willingness to extend the current 90-day tariff suspension period beyond July 9, provided that major trading partners demonstrate "good faith" in ongoing negotiations [1] Group 1: Tariff Suspension - The Trump administration is open to extending the tariff suspension deadline if negotiations with 18 "important trading partners" show sincerity [1] - Mnuchin mentioned that countries and trade groups, such as the EU, that are "genuinely negotiating" are likely to see the deadline extended [1] - There has been no indication from Trump administration officials about extending the tariff suspension if no agreement terms are reached before the deadline [1] Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - Mnuchin emphasized that the U.S. will not engage in negotiations with countries that are not participating in good faith [1] - The comments suggest a potential shift in the administration's approach as the deadline approaches, indicating a preference for altering the set deadline [1]

美国财长贝森特：准备为真诚谈判的贸易伙伴继续努力。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：与欧洲的贸易谈判可能非常接近终点。 ...

欧元兑美元维持0.5%的涨幅。 美国商务部长卢特尼克宣称，欧洲（与特朗普政府的贸易谈判）可能非常接近终点。 最终，美国贸易法庭对特朗普关税的判决无足轻重。 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、中美谈判口风偏暖，两三周或集中释放"小利好" 这里面包括美国和墨西哥、加拿大之间的谈判，以及和日本、印度之间的协议能否部分落地。这也能在 投资市场中形成一定的安抚。中国方面，我们也看到并没有把所有精力都放在和美国的谈判上。在推进 和美国谈判的同时，中国也在其他方向上努力。昨天我们也跟大家聊到，中国和欧盟之间的谈判在一些 关键条款协议上也基本快到尾声了，应该会有一些阶段性结果出来。所以这也是在路上的一些信息。全 球资本市场都在这种小利好和口风转暖的过程中进一步恢复。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 1、中美谈判口风偏暖，两三周或集中释放"小利好" 今天国内市场仍在暖风中，继续小步向上。万众瞩目的关键推动因素是中美之间的谈判。今天第二轮谈 判已经正式结束。虽然双方没有具体说明有哪些条款已经可以落地形成利好，但口风都是偏暖的。对外 统一口径是说落地了一个谈判框架。这可以理解，因为任何两个大国之间的这种量级谈判难度都非常 高，谈判范围也极其广泛 ...

6月11日消息，据报道，欧盟据悉致力于将与美国的贸易谈判延长至特朗普设定的7月最后期限之后。 ...

金十数据6月11日讯，欧盟方面认为，与美国的贸易谈判将延长至特朗普设定的7月9日最后期限之后， 尽管过去一周谈判速度有所加快。知情人士表示，欧盟认为最好的情况是在7月9日之前就协议的原则达 成协议，这将让双方能够进一步谈判，敲定细节。预计美国将在未来几天对最新一轮谈判作出回应，并 明确下一步行动。 欧盟希望贸易谈判延长至特朗普设定的7月最后期限之后 ...