Core Viewpoint - The German government, led by Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has issued a stern warning regarding the new tariffs proposed by the United States, indicating potential decisive countermeasures if trade negotiations fail [1] Group 1 - The German government is prepared to consider "decisive countermeasures" in response to the U.S. tariffs [1] - Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz's statement reflects the seriousness of the trade negotiations between Germany and the United States [1] - The warning comes amid ongoing tensions regarding trade policies and tariffs [1]

大家好，今晚看一下海内外市场的利好消息。 关税的利好 欧盟延长暂停反制措施以便与美国继续谈判 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩表示，欧盟将把针对美国的贸易反制措施暂停期延长至8月1日，以便为进一步谈判留出时间。此前，美国总统特朗普 威胁称，将对欧盟征收30%的新关税。 这些反制措施是欧盟针对特朗普当年对钢铁和铝产品加征关税作出的回应。此前欧盟已暂停实施，以便进行谈判，但若不延长，将于本周二午夜自动恢 复。 冯德莱恩周日表示："同时，我们也会继续准备更多的反制措施，以确保我们做好充分准备。"她再次强调，欧盟更倾向于通过"谈判达成解决方案"。 目前，欧盟已准备好一份涉及大约210亿欧元（245亿美元）美国商品的反制清单，另还有一份规模约720亿欧元的清单待命。 冯德莱恩还表示，欧盟最强有力的贸易工具——"反胁迫工具"（ACI）此时不会启用。她说："ACI是为特殊情况准备的，我们还没有到那个地步。" 特朗普最近向多个贸易伙伴发送信函，对4月提出的关税水平进行了一些调整，并邀请他们继续谈判。在上周六公布的一封信中，他警告称，如果无法谈 妥更好的条件，欧盟下月将面临30%的关税。 欧盟原本希望尽快与美国达成初步协议，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The letter from Trump to the EU may strengthen the belief among EU members for retaliation against the U.S. due to perceived insincerity in negotiations [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Dan Maloney, former U.S. Assistant Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East, suggests that Trump's letter aims to push the EU towards a better agreement [1] - Trump's previous threat in May to impose a 50% tariff on the EU appears to have accelerated the negotiation process [1] Group 2: EU Response - Maloney indicates that the letter could embolden those within the EU who advocate for retaliation, as they may feel justified in their stance [1] - There is a concern that the perception of U.S. insincerity in reaching an agreement could lead to a more aggressive EU response [1]

在被问及对巴西商品征收50%关税一事时，白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，特朗普对巴西的行动和贸易谈判 感到失望。 ...

Group 1 - The German federal government issued a stern warning regarding the new tariff threats posed by U.S. President Trump [1] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Scholz stated that the government would consider "decisive countermeasures" if trade negotiations fail [1]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) expressed concerns over the U.S. decision to impose a 30% tariff on EU exports, stating it would disrupt important supply chains and harm businesses, consumers, and patients on both sides of the Atlantic [1] - The EU remains committed to resolving trade differences with the U.S. through negotiations and is prepared to take necessary measures to protect its interests, including potential countermeasures [1] - The EU aims to reach an agreement by August 1 and will continue to strengthen global partnerships based on rules-based international trade principles [1] Group 2 - The President of the European Council emphasized that fair trade promotes prosperity and job creation, while tariffs exacerbate inflation and hinder economic growth [1] - The Chair of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee called for immediate countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, warning that the worst is yet to come [2] - French President Macron strongly condemned the U.S. decision, expressing dissatisfaction with the timing and urging the EU to take a firm stance to protect European interests [2] Group 3 - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU effective August 1, 2025, following threats of a 50% tariff if trade negotiations did not progress [3] - In response to the U.S. tariffs, the EU had previously planned to impose tariffs on $210 billion worth of U.S. products but postponed this action to allow for further negotiations [3]

该税率高于特朗普政府此前曾经宣布的对加拿大商品征收关的25%关税。 2025.07. 11 本文字数：1091，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月10日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起，对自加拿大进口的商品 征收35%关税。 据报道，一位美国政府官员表示，符合《美墨加协定》的加拿大商品可能会免于此次征税，但他也表 示"最终决定尚未作出"。 加拿大对美出口连续4个月下降 对于特朗普提出的35%关税威胁，加拿大总理卡尼发文称，"在当前与美国的贸易谈判中，加拿大政 府始终坚定地捍卫我国工人和企业的利益。在重新修订的8月1日最后期限前，我们将继续这样做。" 卡尼并未直接提及特朗普此前声称的对加拿大征收35%的关税，但补充称"加拿大在遏制北美芬太尼 泛滥方面取得了重要进展。" 对于该35%的更高关税，广东外语外贸大学加拿大研究中心兼职研究员、国际政治风险分析师刘江 韵对第一财经记者分析称，此举可能是特朗普对加拿大的"乘胜追击"。此前在特朗普停止谈判的威胁 下，加拿大迅速取消了原定对美企业征收的数字服务税，这让特朗普认为威胁策略奏效，现以更高关 税逼迫加拿大再次让步。 刘江韵还 ...

Group 1: Core Points - The U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, which is an increase from the previously announced 25% tariff [1] - This move is seen as a strategy by the U.S. to pressure Canada into concessions during ongoing trade negotiations, particularly regarding dairy and aluminum tariffs [1][3] - The U.S. government claims that the trade deficit with Canada poses a significant threat to U.S. economic and national security [3] Group 2: Trade Relations Impact - Canada's exports to the U.S. have declined for four consecutive months, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping to 68.3%, significantly lower than the 75.9% average in 2024 [4][5] - In contrast, Canada's exports to countries outside the U.S. increased by 5.7%, reaching a historical high [5]

Report Summary 1. Core View - This week, the on - site risk appetite was high but constrained by trade negotiations. The US sent tariff letters to multiple countries and postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st. There is still uncertainty in the global market for the remaining trading days in July. However, China and the US are still promoting negotiations based on the Geneva Agreement and London Conference, with relatively small impact on domestic assets [2]. - After the quantitative new rules were implemented on Monday, trading demand was briefly suppressed and then gradually released. The trading volume in the second half of the week increased rapidly, exceeding 1.7 trillion at the highest. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was about 1.5 trillion, slightly higher than last week. The margin balance continued to rise, with a cumulative net inflow of over 20 billion this week, rising for four consecutive weeks since late June [2]. - Most industry sectors closed up this week, but the banking sector tumbled on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 3500 points and stood above 3500 points for two consecutive days. The Shanghai - Shenzhen broad - based indexes recorded three - consecutive - week losses, but the style reversed again. Small - and medium - cap stocks rose more this week, with the CSI 1000 rising over 2%, while large - cap stocks lagged with a gain of less than 1% [2]. - In terms of basis, as the index soared, the basis of each variety increased synchronously. The basis of each variety strengthened significantly compared with last week. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged to about 8% and 10% respectively. The term structure of each variety shifted up more in the near - end. With the July contracts approaching expiration, positions can be rolled over in advance. Except for the July contracts, the costs of other contracts are similar, and the term selection can be diversified between the near and far ends [2]. 2. Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week, while the basis of IM will strengthen [4]. 3. Market Performance This Week - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was about 1.5 trillion, slightly higher than last week [2]. - **Margin Balance**: The margin balance continued to rise, with a cumulative net inflow of over 20 billion this week, rising for four consecutive weeks since late June [2]. - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 3500 points and stood above 3500 points for two consecutive days. The Shanghai - Shenzhen broad - based indexes recorded three - consecutive - week losses, but small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [2]. - **Basis Performance**: The basis of each variety strengthened significantly compared with last week. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged to about 8% and 10% respectively. The term structure of each variety shifted up more in the near - end [2].

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney responded to President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, stating that Canada will firmly protect its workers and industries while extending trade negotiations with the U.S. until August 1 [1][3] - The Canadian government aims to reach a constructive and mutually beneficial agreement with the U.S. while maximizing national interests, although specific progress in negotiations was not disclosed [3] - Trump indicated that if Canada raises tariffs on U.S. goods, the U.S. will reciprocate with additional tariffs on top of the 35% [3][7] Group 2 - Trump’s letter included a warning that goods rerouted through third countries to avoid tariffs would also be subject to taxation, while also offering incentives for Canadian companies to manufacture in the U.S. to avoid tariffs [7] - The U.S. President criticized Canada for not adequately addressing the fentanyl crisis and suggested that cooperation on this issue could lead to adjustments in tariff policies [7] - Canada is actively pursuing free trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries to diversify trade and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [8] Group 3 - Trump mentioned that countries that have not received a letter regarding tariffs could face a 20% or 15% tariff, indicating a broader strategy of imposing tariffs on multiple economies [9] - The U.S. tariff measures are part of a fluctuating policy that has created uncertainty for investors and trade partners, with changes occurring rapidly [9]