7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程 是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前 经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议通稿中与宏观政策和房地产相关的主要内容如下： 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重 点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩 固拓展经济回升向好势头。 加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国 际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策 ...

Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 18322.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The primary industry added value was 10.33 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%; the secondary industry added value was 6505.56 billion yuan, increasing by 3.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 11806.37 billion yuan, rising by 6.1% [1] Industrial and Service Sector Growth - The city's industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.3%, with manufacturing increasing by 4.2% and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply growing by 11.8% [2] - High-tech product output saw significant growth, with civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively [2] - The service sector's added value was 11806.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, driven by finance (10.9%), transportation and warehousing (9.0%), and information technology services (8.1%) [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9%, with real estate development down by 15.1% but infrastructure investment up by 7.7% and industrial technology renovation investment soaring by 47.1% [3] - Investment in information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 47.7%, while transportation and warehousing investment rose by 32.5% [3] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4948.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3] - Online retail sales through the internet increased by 19.4%, indicating a strong trend towards e-commerce [3] Trade and Financial Sector - The total import and export volume for the first half of the year was 21675.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%, with exports down by 7.0% and imports up by 9.5% [4] - By the end of June, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 141600.14 billion yuan, growing by 5.7% [4] Cross-Border E-commerce Development - The Google Cross-Border E-commerce Acceleration Center in Shenzhen officially commenced operations, enhancing the cross-border e-commerce ecosystem in the region [6] - The center aims to provide comprehensive services for cross-border e-commerce companies, supporting their global business expansion [6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability while seeking progress in economic work for the second half of the year, focusing on employment, enterprises, markets, and consumer confidence, while promoting domestic and international dual circulation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Situation and Policy - The meeting highlighted that the economic operation in the first half of the year showed stability and progress, with a strong foundation and potential for high-quality development [2][3]. - There is a recognition of existing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating a proactive approach in macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand and deepen reforms [3][4]. Group 2: Suggestions from Political Parties and Organizations - Various political party leaders and representatives expressed support for the central government's analysis of the economic situation and provided suggestions on promoting technological and industrial innovation, enhancing service consumption, and improving social security for flexible employment groups [2][3]. - The emphasis was placed on the importance of collaboration and political responsibility under the leadership of the Communist Party [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The central government called for unity in understanding the economic situation and encouraged the use of resources and expertise to propose actionable suggestions for high-quality development [4]. - The need for the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce to guide private economic actors towards high-quality development was also highlighted [4].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period for achieving socialist modernization and addressing complex economic challenges while leveraging China's advantages and strengths [2][3]. Economic Development Strategy - The meeting outlines the need to adhere to Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, and Xi Jinping's Thought, focusing on building a modern socialist country and achieving the second centenary goal [3]. - It stresses the importance of a new development pattern, balancing domestic and international dynamics, and ensuring quality and reasonable growth in the economy [4]. Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting calls for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [4]. - Emphasis is placed on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations while promoting domestic and international dual circulation [4]. Reform and Innovation - The meeting highlights the need for deepening reforms, fostering technological innovation, and developing competitive emerging industries [5]. - It advocates for a unified national market and optimizing market competition while ensuring compliance with regulations [5]. External Trade and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of maintaining a stable external trade and investment environment, supporting foreign trade enterprises, and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [5]. - It also calls for high-level opening-up and enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [5]. Social Welfare and Employment - The meeting prioritizes employment policies, particularly for key groups such as graduates and veterans, and emphasizes the importance of social safety nets [6]. - It aims to ensure food security and prevent large-scale poverty while maintaining public safety and emergency response capabilities [6]. Engagement and Implementation - The meeting encourages active participation from all sectors, urging leaders and entrepreneurs to adopt a correct view of performance and contribute to high-quality development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period for achieving significant progress in socialist modernization, amidst complex economic challenges and opportunities [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The meeting highlights that the current economic environment is characterized by both risks and opportunities, necessitating a focus on maintaining economic recovery momentum [3]. - It acknowledges that under the leadership of the Central Committee, various regions and departments have implemented proactive macroeconomic policies, resulting in stable economic performance and new achievements in high-quality development [2][3]. Policy Recommendations - The meeting stresses the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies, including active fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic stability and growth [3][4]. - It calls for effective measures to unleash domestic demand, enhance consumption, and stimulate private investment [3][4]. Reform and Innovation - The meeting underscores the commitment to deepening reforms, particularly in fostering technological innovation and developing competitive emerging industries [4][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing market competition and regulating local investment behaviors to enhance overall market efficiency [4]. External Trade and Investment - The meeting advocates for high-level opening up to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing support to affected foreign trade enterprises [5]. - It suggests optimizing export tax rebate policies and enhancing the construction of free trade zones [5]. Risk Management - The meeting highlights the necessity of preventing and mitigating risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability [5]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining a robust social safety net and ensuring food security [5]. Employment and Social Welfare - The meeting prioritizes employment policies, particularly for vulnerable groups such as graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring the implementation of social assistance programs [5][6]. - It emphasizes the need to consolidate poverty alleviation efforts and maintain reasonable prices for essential agricultural products [5]. Engagement and Motivation - The meeting calls for motivating all stakeholders, including leaders and entrepreneurs, to align with the new development philosophy and contribute to high-quality economic growth [6].

中国宏观经济研究院党委书记、院长黄汉权在7月30日习近平经济思想2025年会上回答证券时报记者提 问时表示，全国统一大市场建设与构建新发展格局密切关联。内循环、外循环都需要通过市场进行，市 场规模越大，市场范围越广，要素资源才能在更广阔的空间、更加高效地流动。全国统一大市场建设是 构建新发展格局的重要内容，目前全国统一大市场建设仍然面临一些堵点、卡点，我们看到的地方保 护、市场壁垒都只是现象性的问题，本质上是体制机制的问题。在政绩考核、财税体制、统计等方面加 大力度破解卡点、堵点，才能顺利推进全国统一大市场建设，助力加快构建新发展格局。(人民财讯) ...

Economic Policy & Development - The meeting decided to convene the 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee to study current economic situation and work [1] - The meeting will focus on studying the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [1] - Macro policies should be strengthened continuously and appropriately, implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully release policy effects [1] - Structural monetary policy tools should be used to increase support for technological innovation, boost consumption, support small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] Industry & Trade - High-quality promotion of "two major" constructions to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [2] - Accelerate the cultivation of emerging pillar industries with international competitiveness, and promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation [2] - Advance capacity governance in key industries [2] - Help foreign trade enterprises that are heavily impacted, strengthen financial support, and promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to effectively promote domestic and international dual circulation, aiming to achieve the economic and social development goals for the year and ensure a successful conclusion to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1 - The meeting highlights the need to adhere to Xi Jinping's new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the guiding principle for economic work in the second half of the year [1] - It stresses the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic measures [1] - The focus is on achieving stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to support the overall economic framework [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Financial Committee emphasizes the need to align thoughts and actions with the important speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping, focusing on economic development and high-quality growth in the second half of the year [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The meeting highlighted the importance of actively serving the construction of a unified national market and enhancing the role of the Yangtze River Delta in driving economic growth [1] - There is a call to accelerate the high-quality development of the marine economy, leveraging leading enterprises and enhancing the competitiveness of the shipping service industry [1] - The focus is on deepening the market-oriented allocation of factors, improving regulatory enforcement, and addressing "involution" competition [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting stressed the need to recognize and grasp the economic development situation, ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2] - There is an emphasis on capturing major policy opportunities and concentrating efforts on implementing various policy measures effectively [2] - The importance of cultivating new growth drivers and maintaining strategic agility in niche markets was also highlighted [2] Group 3: Enhancing Economic Work Capabilities - The need to improve the ability to conduct economic work by integrating macro and micro perspectives was emphasized [2] - The meeting called for a problem-oriented approach to identify trends and opportunities from emerging issues [2] - A spirit of striving for excellence and self-pressure was encouraged to foster a proactive and enterprising atmosphere across the city [2]

Domestic Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on July 16 to discuss strengthening the domestic circulation, emphasizing the need for optimized policy design and collaboration among departments to promote economic stability and growth [9][10][11] - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference convened a meeting on July 18 to analyze the macroeconomic situation for the first half of 2025, highlighting the importance of maintaining employment, enterprises, and market stability amid a complex international environment [11][12] Overseas Policy News - On July 17, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act," establishing a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins, marking a significant legislative reform in cryptocurrency regulation [2][14] - Data from the U.S. Treasury revealed that in May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings for the third consecutive month [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight increase in mid-July, driven by better-than-expected economic growth in the first half and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [22][23] - The MSCI China A-share index rose by 1.2% in the third week of July, while the Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of nearly 20 billion yuan [22][23] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net injection of 9.749 billion yuan into the market through open market operations [3][21] - The central bank's policies have shown a positive impact on supporting the real economy, with a notable increase in the effectiveness of monetary policy [3][21] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight rebound, while crude oil prices experienced a minor decline [3][21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the implementation of a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [3][21] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, closing at 98.46 on July 18, while the renminbi faced depreciation pressure, trading at 7.18 [4][20] - A joint announcement from seven departments encouraged foreign investment in domestic reinvestment, aiming to enhance the investment environment [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing in the second half of the year, with a focus on structural adjustments to address uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [4][20]