中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 2026年两会前瞻：五大看点 >>点击图片查看全文<< 全国两会即将召开，我们认为在两会期间主要关注以下看点：1）十五五纲要，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议将审查国民 经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。2）扩大国内需求，稳定经济增长。3）建设全国统一大市场。 4）化解重点领域风险。5）两会期间可能安排及重要事项。我们认为受益于积极政策及改革预期、中外流动性宽松周期共振、AI技术革命与能源 革命支撑部分产业需求，带动上市公司业绩改善，市场"稳进"趋势有望延续。结构上，受益于两会政策预期的板块通常表现出超额收益，今年两会 期间建议重点关注顺周期、科技成长等领域。 2026.2.25 | 李求索 李瑾等 02 中金研究 CICC Research 一文看懂春节数据 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2026年春节假期数据出炉，总体来看消费景气度得到提升。在本文中，我们从宏观、策略、轻工零售美妆、旅游酒店及餐饮、纺织服装珠宝、传 媒、互联网等角度为大家详细解读。 202 ...

(1)十五五纲要：2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议将审查国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。 (2)扩大国内需求，稳定经济增长。按照惯例，在3月5日全国人大开幕会议上，政府工作报告有望提出 2026年工作目标，包括GDP增速、通胀、赤字率目标、货币政策与财政政策安排等。 2月26日，中金发表报告指出，全国政协十四届四次会议和十四届全国人大四次会议分别将于2026年3月 4日和3月5日在北京召开。结合当前的国内外经济增长与政策环境，从资本市场投资角度，该行认为在 两会期间主要关注以下看点： (3)建设全国统一大市场。"十五五"规划建议提出"消除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方 面壁垒，规范地方政府经济促进行为，破除地方保护和市场分割"。相关行动有望继续推进。 (4)化解重点领域风险。当前房地产行业处于转型期，去库存和化债都是重要课题，今年关注主要城市 尤其是一线城市库存去化进度。 (5)两会期间可能安排及重要事项：结合惯例来看，可能包括政府工作报告、代表、委员和部长通道、 人大议案、政协提案、主题记者会等环节，关注两会期间各部委(如发改 ...

Core Insights - The "Top Ten Influential Economists of 2025" list has been announced, highlighting the steady recovery and quality improvement of China's economy amidst multiple internal and external challenges [1][6] - The evaluation was conducted by a panel considering five dimensions: professionalism, influence, innovation, foresight, and activity level, with results based on voting and data on output and impact [1][6] Group 1 - Zhang Ming, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has been awarded the title of "Top Ten Influential Economists of 2025" [7] - The selection process involved a comprehensive assessment of economists' contributions and their ability to understand and navigate economic trends [1][6] Group 2 - The event was organized in collaboration with Sina Finance, the Chief Economist Forum, the New Economist Think Tank, and Weibo Finance [1][6] - The recognition of influential economists is seen as a reflection of their deep academic background and practical market experience, which helps in identifying developmental trends and guiding future directions [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The successful acceptance of the 3-107 and 3-108 general berths at Caofeidian Port marks a significant step towards enhancing the port's capacity for international trade and supports the strategic goals of integrating into the "dual circulation" economy and building a unified national market [1][2] Group 1 - The acceptance was led by the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission, with participation from various provincial departments, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation of the berths and associated facilities [1] - The berths have met all legal requirements, including obtaining the port operation license and completing necessary regulatory processes, confirming their readiness for international operations [2] - The design capacity for foreign trade goods at Caofeidian Port exceeds 200 million tons annually, accounting for over 30% of the province's open berth capacity [2] Group 2 - By 2025, the foreign trade throughput at Caofeidian Port is projected to reach 230 million tons, representing 60% of Tangshan Port's total foreign trade volume and approximately 47.7% of the province's total port foreign trade volume [2] - The opening of these berths is expected to inject strong momentum into the high-quality development of Caofeidian, positioning it as a crucial support for the local and provincial open economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a national postal and express logistics hub in Jingzhou is a strategic action to implement national policies aimed at enhancing economic circulation and building a unified national market, which is crucial for regional logistics development and industrial upgrading [1][2] Group 1: Current Status and Achievements - Jingzhou has been assigned the strategic mission to build a national postal and express logistics hub following the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on the Layout and Construction of National Postal and Express Hubs" [1] - The hub's functionality is already showing results, with 60% of provincial distribution centers located in the Yichang-Jingzhou-Jingmen-Enshi urban cluster, over 100 direct mail routes, and an annual mail and express processing capacity of 3.5 billion items [1] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the advantages in infrastructure, Jingzhou faces challenges in creating a strong industrial ecosystem with significant radiation effects and aggregation capabilities, as well as ensuring sustainable rural logistics systems [2] - Recommendations include enhancing provincial support, implementing special policies for smart logistics facilities, and providing financial assistance for equipment upgrades in small postal enterprises and rural logistics systems to strengthen Jingzhou's hub functions and extend its industrial ecosystem [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Chinese government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds in 2025 to support "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at around 4%, with new government debt totaling 11.86 trillion yuan, significantly higher than previous years, to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The government aims to boost consumption by allocating 300 billion yuan for a trade-in program, expected to generate over 2.6 trillion yuan in related sales [1] Group 2: Support for Employment and Social Welfare - The central government has allocated 66.74 billion yuan for employment subsidies and increased funding for social insurance and public health services, enhancing residents' consumption capacity [1][3] - The government is committed to maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and total debt to ensure sustained support for key areas, focusing on boosting consumption and social welfare [3] Group 3: Policies to Encourage Private Investment - New policies include a loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises in key industries, with a subsidy rate of 1.5% for loans up to 50 million yuan [4] - A special guarantee plan for private enterprises will provide support for medium to long-term loans needed for business expansion and upgrades, with a maximum guarantee of 20 million yuan per enterprise [4] - A risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds will help reduce financing barriers, supported by central government funds [4][8] Group 4: Optimizing Consumption Support Policies - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy has been enhanced, allowing for higher subsidy amounts and broader coverage, including credit card installment payments and new consumption sectors [7] - The implementation period for these consumer loan subsidies has been extended to the end of 2026, increasing accessibility for a wider range of financial institutions [7] Group 5: Government Procurement and Market Regulation - The government aims to optimize procurement processes by establishing a comprehensive legal framework and ensuring fair treatment of all market participants [9] - Continuous efforts will be made to regulate fiscal subsidies and improve the management of government procurement to foster a more competitive market environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the National High Court Presidents emphasizes the need to adhere to power boundaries and address issues related to the use of administrative and criminal means to interfere in economic disputes, particularly focusing on profit-driven and illegal cross-regional law enforcement practices [1][3]. Group 1: Governance and Legal Framework - The Supreme People's Court has been focusing on addressing profit-driven and illegal cross-regional law enforcement issues, with plans to include this in the work report for the National People's Congress in March 2025 [3]. - A notification issued in April last year aimed to ensure strict and fair judicial practices in cases involving enterprises, targeting the disruption of legal processes [3][4]. Group 2: Judicial Services and Market Order - The meeting highlighted the importance of judicial services that are both flexible and well-regulated, aligning with the central economic work conference's requirements to standardize market order [4]. - There has been a noted decline in criminal first-instance case filings, while cases disrupting the socialist market economy have increased by 2.2%, and civil cases involving unfair competition have risen by 10.6% [3]. Group 3: Enforcement and Competition - The meeting called for a comprehensive approach to utilize criminal, civil, and administrative judicial functions to punish behaviors that disrupt market order and violate market rules, thereby ensuring accountability for those who breach trust [4]. - There is a focus on addressing "involution" in competition through judicial research, enhancing anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition laws to foster a fair and orderly market environment [4]. Group 4: Economic Environment and Bankruptcy - The meeting stressed the need to uphold power boundaries and prevent the misuse of authority in economic disputes, while also promoting a legal environment that protects enterprise property rights and interests [4]. - The bankruptcy system is recognized as crucial for optimizing resource allocation, with judicial collaboration with the government emphasized for effective handling of complex bankruptcy cases [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant transformation in the bidding process for projects in Zhangzhou, where the focus has shifted from local registration requirements to evaluating technical proposals and reasonable pricing, fostering a more inclusive environment for businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Bidding Process - The bidding process now prioritizes technical solutions and competitive pricing over the geographical origin of companies, allowing for a more equitable competition [1]. - The removal of unreasonable barriers, such as excessive qualification requirements, has reduced participation costs for businesses and increased market transparency [1][2]. Group 2: Fair Competition Mechanism - Zhangzhou has implemented a "4321" fair competition review mechanism to address issues like local protectionism and promote high-quality development, ensuring that all policies affecting business operations undergo thorough scrutiny [2][3]. - The mechanism includes collaborative meetings, training for capacity building, and a combination of internal checks and external reporting to enhance oversight [2]. Group 3: Impact on Local Businesses - The changes have led to a more favorable environment for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with increased government support for procurement and opportunities for innovation competitions [3][4]. - The stability of policies has improved, reducing the prevalence of competitive tax incentives among local governments, which previously distorted market conditions [3][4]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Growth - The establishment of a transparent feedback channel for businesses to report unreasonable regulations has increased confidence among entrepreneurs [4]. - As a result of these reforms, Zhangzhou is projected to see a significant increase in registered business entities, with a total of 84.12 million active businesses by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.07% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the ongoing efforts and challenges in building a unified national market, highlighting both achievements and existing barriers that need to be addressed [2][3]. Group 1: Achievements and Challenges - The construction of a unified national market has made positive progress, with the foundational framework ("four beams and eight pillars") largely established [2]. - Despite these achievements, there are still significant issues such as local protectionism, market segmentation, and regional barriers that hinder market access [2]. - The effectiveness of resource allocation through market mechanisms has not been fully realized, indicating room for improvement in the collaborative allocation of various factors [2]. Group 2: Future Actions - The NDRC plans to adopt a problem-oriented approach, focusing on establishing beneficial institutional rules while eliminating obstacles to the unified market [3]. - Key initiatives include the development of a list of actions that hinder the construction of the unified market, standardizing local government economic promotion behaviors, and creating policies to promote healthy investment practices [3]. - The NDRC will also work on enhancing legal frameworks, including the establishment of administrative penalty standards and improving fiscal, statistical, and evaluation systems to support market unification [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The proposal to "improve the integrated circulation rules and standards" is a significant measure to reduce logistics costs across society and is a key approach to building a unified national market [1] Group 1: Importance of Integrated Circulation Rules and Standards - Improving integrated circulation rules and standards is crucial for enhancing the operational efficiency of the national economy, as an efficient circulation system connects production and consumption, expands transaction scope, and reduces transaction costs [1] - A modern circulation system with high standards is essential for lowering logistics costs and promoting the smooth flow of goods and resources across regions, thereby improving resource allocation efficiency [1] Group 2: New Requirements and Challenges - Since the 18th National Congress, significant progress has been made in China's circulation system reform, with the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP decreasing from 18% in 2012 to 14% in the first half of 2025, although it still lags behind the approximately 8% average of developed countries [2] - The need to establish integrated circulation rules and standards during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is emphasized, focusing on optimizing logistics network distribution and enhancing the construction of logistics infrastructure in rural areas [2] Group 3: Key Tasks for Promoting Unified Circulation Rules and Standards - Accelerate the construction of a modern logistics operation system with high-standard connectivity, including the implementation of railway freight network projects and the integration of inland waterway transport systems [3] - Promote deep integration of various transportation modes, enhance market-oriented reforms in railway freight, and develop multimodal transport [3] - Improve the unified circulation standards system by strengthening the formulation and revision of rules and standards in key areas such as commercial logistics and e-commerce [3] - Focus on promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade by expanding mutual recognition of inspection and certification and aligning rules and standards [3]