US Economic Weekly Economics - North America Waiting game Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 June FOMC meeting – hawkish on net The June FOMC meeting was hawkish on net. The 2025 median rate projection was left unchanqed at two cuts, but the committee was highly divided with 10 participants expectinq 2 or 3 rate cuts this ...

There was a lot of talk on the on the flip side on the GDP side. What if actually AI can increase productivity and regrow GDP faster than expectations. Even taking doctors as an example, this new company coming in and developing kind of a diagnosis engine.And already a third of US physicians are on the platform using it, you know, 10 times a day to kind of help diagnose. You multiply that by the legal profession, coding, I think we're already seeing. What if we just see an explosion of productivity gains ac ...

We spoke just a few moments ago about what we were expecting. 7-2 seems to have been the consensus a little bit may be more dovish in terms of the vote split. That looks like it, Guy.Absolutely. As you say, the hold was widely expected, but all the focus as your last guest was also saying, is on whether the break down was going to be seven members of the monetary policy committee voting to to hold and to for a quarter point cut. But in fact, we've got three for a quarter point cut.And it looks like the addi ...

智通财经6月19日电，新西兰第一季度GDP同比下降0.7%，预期下降0.8%，前值由-1.10%修正为-1.3%； 环比增长0.8%，预期增长0.7%，前值由0.70%修正为0.5%。 ...

新西兰一季度GDP同比 -0.7%，预期 -0.8%，前值 -1.1%。 ...

新西兰一季度GDP季环比 0.8%，预期 0.7%，前值 0.7%。 ...

has left the room and I do want to bring him in. Um, a couple things are clear here to me, Steve. Number one, um, it seems the Fed chair believes that the tariffs have put both sides of the mandate into question and they're going to have to wait and see on how to deal with all of that.And that Pal himself doesn't seem to be a huge fan of these SCPs either. Um, and he revisited the refrain from the last meeting, throwing back at the reporter who asked him the question, "What would you write? We'll do the bes ...

No change in the Federal Reserve funds rate staying at a net level of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. Some really interesting stuff in the forecast. Let me tell you about the assessment of the economy.First, they're saying the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Unemployment remains low. Inflation is somewhat elevated.And they talk about the idea that swings in net exports, all that front running is affecting the data. Now, the Fed forecast increase the inflation outlook. They reduce ...

Steve Leeman. Now, no change in the Federal Reserve funds rate, staying at a net level of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. Some really interesting stuff in the forecast.Let me tell you about the assessment of the economy. First, they're saying the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Unemployment remains low.Inflation is somewhat elevated. And they talk about the idea that swings in net exports, all that front running is affecting the data. Now, the Fed forecast increase the inflation ...

Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, with a long-term forecast also at 1.8% [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 4.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 4.2% [2] - PCE inflation is forecasted at 3.0% for 2025, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term target of 2.0% [2] - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 3.1% in 2025, dropping to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term goal of 2.0% [2] - The federal funds rate is projected to be 3.9% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 3.0% [2]