Group 1: US Economic Policy - The US non-farm employment figure was revised down by 911,000, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000[1] - The August CPI in the US was 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, also meeting expectations[1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[1] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, indicating that inflationary pressures have been effectively contained[1] - Japan's second-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%[1] - Global stock markets and commodities showed positive performance, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index remained stable[1] Group 3: Market Predictions - The GDPNow model predicts a 3.1% annualized growth rate for the US GDP in the third quarter[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 11.0% to 6.6%, while the expectation for the policy rate at the end of 2025 slightly decreased from 3.55% to 3.54%[1] - The latest employment and inflation data support the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of rate cuts, boosting expectations for monetary easing[1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to cut rates by 25-50 basis points due to a comfortable inflation trajectory, but is not expected to do so in the current cycle given strong Q1 GDP numbers and recent consumption boosts from GST cuts [1][6] - CPI-based inflation rose to 2.07% in August from July's eight-year-low of 1.61%, entering the RBI's medium-term target of 2-6% [1][6] - Economists expect inflation to ease further due to GST rate cuts effective from September 22, with CPI for FY26 likely lower than the RBI's estimate of 3.1% [6] Group 2 - Retail inflation for September is currently tracking at approximately 1.75%, with October potentially going below 1% due to GST cuts and base effects [6] - Growth momentum is expected to slow in H2 FY26 as support from transient factors wanes and the impact of tariffs becomes more visible [6] - There are downside risks to inflation that may leave scope for another repo rate cut in the October-December period, although this was priced out by the market after a strong GDP print [6]

Market Overview - The UK market is experiencing positive momentum, with the benchmark FTSE 100 up 33.97 points or 0.36% at 9,331.55 [1] - Gains in the mining sector are attributed to higher metal prices, contributing to the overall market performance [1] Sector Performance - The mining sector shows solid gains, with companies like Beazley gaining about 3.2% and Glencore up nearly 3% [2] - Other companies such as Hiscox, Antofagasta, Fresnillo, and Anglo American Plc are also experiencing gains between 1.5% to 2.6% [2] Economic Data - The UK's real GDP showed no growth in July, following a 0.4% increase in June, with the services sector expanding by 0.1% and construction by 0.2% [3] - Industrial production fell by 0.9%, offsetting gains in other sectors [3] Yearly and Quarterly Trends - On a yearly basis, GDP increased by 1.4% in July, slightly below the economists' forecast of 1.5% [4] - In the three months leading to July, real GDP advanced by 0.2%, following a 0.3% rise in the previous three months [4] Trade Balance - The visible trade deficit remained relatively unchanged at GBP 23.68 billion in July compared to GBP 23.65 billion in June [4] - The surplus on services decreased to GBP 15.28 billion from GBP 15.42 billion, resulting in a total trade balance deficit of GBP 8.4 billion, up from GBP 8.23 billion the previous month [5]

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Group 1: Inflation and Market Expectations - The current CPI numbers indicate that inflation is rising but not at an alarming rate, suggesting a cautious outlook for the Fed's future actions [1][5] - The market is expected to anticipate more aggressive Fed activity, leading to a potential decrease in yields, particularly in the two-year and three-year segments, by approximately 20 basis points over the next month [2][3] - There is a debate regarding the sources of inflation, with some analysts suggesting it may be structural rather than solely tariff-based, which could impact the anticipated Fed cuts [4][5] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has shown signs of softening, with secondary indicators such as job openings and the quits rate declining significantly from late 2022 to mid-2024 [6][7] - The layoffs rate has remained steady, with a slight increase recently, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in the labor market that could concern Fed leaders [8] - The disconnect between labor market data and other economic indicators raises questions about the overall GDP pace and the Fed's response to these trends [6][8]

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Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]