Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in U.S. retail giants like Walmart, which have resumed orders from Chinese suppliers while agreeing to bear the additional tariff costs, indicating a change in strategy amidst ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][5]. Group 1: Retail Industry Dynamics - Walmart and other U.S. retailers have resumed orders from Chinese suppliers after a brief pause, with the commitment to absorb new tariff costs, which were previously expected to be passed on to Chinese suppliers [1][3]. - The shift in U.S. retail strategy follows a meeting between retail representatives and President Trump, contrasting with their earlier attempts to transfer tariff burdens to Chinese suppliers [1][4]. - U.S. retail inventory levels are nearing critical thresholds, prompting retailers to act to avoid stock shortages and price increases that have led to consumer panic buying [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Retailers are anticipating a potential easing of tariff policies, driven by the upcoming midterm elections and the political pressure of rising inflation on the White House [4][8]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has revealed that there is no current negotiation on tariffs between the U.S. and China, contradicting claims of ongoing discussions [7][8]. - The actions of U.S. retailers reflect a recognition of the limitations of unilateral trade policies, as they seek to stabilize supply chains and consumer prices amidst political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The resumption of orders from Walmart signifies a vote of confidence in the Chinese supply chain, suggesting that even major retailers are aware of the unsustainable nature of prolonged trade tensions [10]. - The article highlights the importance of market forces over political rhetoric, indicating that the need for Chinese goods will challenge any political barriers imposed by tariffs [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 豆粕早报 2025-05-09 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：美豆探底回升，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡收涨，5月进口大 豆到港增多但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面，进口巴西大豆到港增多和 中美关税战预期交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货3100（华东），基差181，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存8.21万吨，上周7.48万吨，环比增加9.76%，去年同期52.51万吨，同 比减少84.36%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流入， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2880 and 2940, maintaining a weak and oscillatory pattern in the short - term due to factors such as the increase in imported Brazilian soybeans, the expectation of the Sino - US tariff war, and the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans [9][10]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200, with the domestic soybean market affected by the Sino - US tariff war, the increase in imported soybeans, and the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - After the Sino - US tariff war landed, the US soybeans oscillated and rebounded, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets returned to oscillation, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [15]. - The domestic demand for soybean meal after the Spring Festival has weakened, but the tight supply supports the price expectation. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has dropped to a low level, and the spot price is strong [15]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Likely to Rise**: The short - term import volume of domestic soybeans is lower than expected, the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains low, and there are still variables in the weather in South American soybean - producing areas [16]. - **Likely to Fall**: The import volume of domestic soybeans will rise to a high level in May, and the high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans persists [16]. - **Soybeans** - **Likely to Rise**: The Sino - US tariff war supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - **Likely to Fall**: The high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans persists, China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From April 23 to May 7, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed a fluctuating trend [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From April 24 to May 7, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The soybean meal futures rose first and then fell, and the spot price was relatively strong before May Day [20][25]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From April 22 to May 7, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean meal increased, while the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 decreased to zero [22]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [34][35]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 to 2025 is presented, including sowing rate, harvesting rate, etc. [36][37][41] 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - The main short positions of soybeans increased, and the capital inflow was also positive [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-07 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2880至2940区间震荡。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆种植正常推进和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡收涨，5月进 口大豆到港增多但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面，进口巴西大豆到港增 多和中美关税战预期交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货3100（华东），基差185，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存8.21万吨，上周7.48万吨，环比增加9.76%，去年同期52.51万吨，同 比减少84.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2860 - 2920, maintaining a generally weak and volatile pattern. The soybean A2507 is expected to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180 [9][12]. - The market is focused on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The upgrade of the Sino - US tariff war and technical support, along with uncertainties in South American weather, support the bottom of the soybean and soybean meal market. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans suppresses the upward space of the market [10][13][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - After the implementation of the Sino - US tariff war, the US soybeans oscillated and rebounded. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets returned to a volatile state, showing a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations. The demand for soybean meal after the Spring Festival weakened, but the tight supply supported the price. The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal dropped to a low level, and the spot price was strong [15]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Short - term lower - than - expected domestic import of soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in South American soybean - growing weather [16]. - Bearish factors: The volume of domestic imported soybeans will increase to a high level in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans persists [16]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The Sino - US tariff war supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3270, with a basis of 350, showing a premium over the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 7.48 tons, a 40.4% decrease from last week and an 84.69% decrease from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 28, showing a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 459.48 tons, a 7.88% increase from last week and a 29.4% increase from the same period last year [13]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. - For soybeans, the short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [13].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-04-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆一A2507：4120至4220区间震荡。 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，油脂回落带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回落，获利盘回 吐和技术性震荡整理，国产大豆性价比优势支撑价格预期，短期受中美关税战和国产大 豆收储政策预期交互影响。偏多。 2.基差：现货4140，基差-22，贴水期货。中性 3.库存:油厂大豆库存459.48万吨，上周425.91万吨，环比增加7.88%，去年同期355.08万吨， 同比增加29.4%。偏空 ...