技術分析

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短線機會與風險 超買狀態下的操作策略
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:05
Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) has shown a strong upward trend, with a recent high of 12.13 HKD, but technical indicators suggest a potential for short-term correction due to overbought conditions indicated by an RSI of 86 [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has risen from a low of 7.75 HKD to a recent high of 12.13 HKD, indicating a bullish trend [1]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 12.5 HKD and 13.6 HKD, while support levels are at 10.8 HKD and 10 HKD [1]. - The stock is currently above all major moving averages, but the RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting caution for investors [1][3]. Derivative Products - Investors are advised to consider specific call options such as the Bank of China call option 18700 with a strike price of 11.13 HKD, offering 3.2x leverage, and the call option 18217 with a strike price of 11 HKD, also providing 3.2x leverage [6]. - The performance of leveraged products has been strong, with notable gains in recent recommendations, highlighting their potential for significant returns in bullish markets [3][6]. Market Sentiment - There is a mixed sentiment among investors regarding the potential for a deep correction following the overbought RSI level, with some believing that the strong momentum could continue to push the stock past the 12.5 HKD resistance [9].
長城汽車強勢突破 關注關鍵阻力位表現
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-23 12:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Great Wall Motors (02333.HK) has shown a strong rebound, breaking the resistance level of 17.86 and aiming for 20, with a current price of 18.4, reflecting a 2.28% increase [1][2] - Technical analysis shows that Great Wall Motors has broken through all major moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at 15.76 acting as immediate support, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages provide strong support at 14.15 and 13.25 respectively [1][2] - The first resistance level is identified at 19.2, with a potential challenge to the second resistance at 21.5 if the first is surpassed [2] Group 2 - The RSI indicator has surged to 84, indicating an overbought condition and significant short-term adjustment pressure, while multiple oscillators show neutral signals [4] - Recent performance of call options has been impressive, with UBS call option 13608 recording a 26% increase and HSBC call option 13606 showing a 25% rise, significantly outperforming the underlying stock's 5.2% increase [4] - Investors are advised to consider HSBC call option 13606 and UBS call option 13608, both with a strike price of 18.82 and offering a leverage of 4.8 times, as suitable options for bullish investors [7]
中移動均線呈多頭排列 短線趨勢向好
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-23 12:07
Group 1 - China Mobile (00941.HK) has shown a strong upward trend, with a recent high of 89.7 HKD, surpassing the upper Bollinger Band of 89.6 HKD, and closing at 89.4 HKD [1] - The stock is currently in a solid upward channel, supported by all major moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at 88.25 HKD providing immediate support [1] - The first support level is at 86.2 HKD, while the first resistance level is at 90.6 HKD, indicating a potential short-term breakout opportunity [2] Group 2 - Technical indicators are showing a "strong buy" signal, with the RSI at 64, indicating buying strength without entering the overbought territory [4] - Recent performance of structured products has been impressive, with notable gains such as a 50% increase in a call option within two days [4] - Investors are advised to consider various structured products, including HSBC call options with a strike price of 90.05 HKD offering 22x leverage, and UBS put options with a strike price of 71.88 HKD [7][9]
華虹短線衝高 半導體股能否再下一城?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-22 12:58
Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong is experiencing significant activity, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) becoming a focal point as its stock price rises sharply, indicating strong market interest and potential bullish trends [1][11]. Technical Analysis - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock price reached 52.75 HKD, up 10.90%, with an intraday high of 53.6 HKD, reflecting active trading [1]. - The stock is currently in a strong upward trend, supported by multiple technical indicators, with all major moving averages positioned favorably [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 43 HKD and 39.8 HKD, while resistance is initially at 50.8 HKD, with a potential challenge at 55.2 HKD if the stock breaks through [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 71, indicating strong buying pressure but also entering an overbought territory [3]. Investment Products - Investors looking to capitalize on the bullish sentiment can consider call options such as the subscription certificate 18917 with a strike price of 50.88 HKD, offering approximately 2.5 times leverage [7]. - Another option is HSBC's call certificate 19059, with a strike price of 50.93 HKD and 2.4 times leverage, providing a cost-effective entry point [7]. - For bullish investors, JPMorgan's bull certificate 61554 offers a recovery price of 39 HKD with a high leverage of 4.2 times, suitable for those willing to take on higher risks [10]. - Societe Generale's bull certificate 61470 also has a recovery price of 39 HKD, providing 4.3 times leverage and the lowest premium rate in the market [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is positive, with Hua Hong Semiconductor's strong performance leading to significant gains in related products, indicating a robust bullish trend in the semiconductor sector [11].
中興通訊飆升6.6% 強勢突破所有均線!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-22 03:19
Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation (00763) has emerged as a standout stock in the Hong Kong telecommunications equipment sector, with a significant price increase driven by market news and technical analysis [1][3]. Technical Analysis - ZTE's stock price surged to HKD 34.1, marking a 6.59% increase, before closing at HKD 31.36 [1]. - The stock has broken through multiple key technical levels, with the 10-day moving average at HKD 27.42 acting as initial support, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages are at HKD 26.14 and HKD 24.79, respectively [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 79, indicating an overbought condition, yet technical indicators still signal a "buy" with a strength of 11 [1]. - The stock's volatility over the past five trading days was 25.4%, suggesting active market sentiment and potential trading opportunities [3]. Support and Resistance Levels - ZTE's first support level is at HKD 28.3, with a second support at HKD 25.6. The first resistance level is at HKD 35.8, and the second resistance is at HKD 37.8 [3]. - A breakthrough above HKD 35.8 could open up new upward potential, while a retreat at resistance would require monitoring of support levels [3]. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - Increased trading volume indicates significant institutional investment, although there are signs of profit-taking from northbound capital [3]. - The current upward probability is estimated at 52%, reflecting a balance between bullish and bearish forces in the market [3]. Investment Products - Various investment products are available, such as the BOCHK call warrant with an exercise price of HKD 38.93, offering 1.9 times leverage, suitable for short-term investors [4]. - The JPMorgan call warrant has a higher leverage of 3.9 times, targeting more aggressive investors, while another product offers a longer expiration date for medium-term strategies [4].
長城汽車飆升5% 股價創新高
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 20:06
Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector in Hong Kong is experiencing increased volatility, with Great Wall Motors (02333) showing notable price movements and technical indicators suggesting potential short-term adjustments [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Great Wall Motors' stock price reached HKD 17.76, up 5.21%, indicating strong recent performance but also showing clear overbought signals [1]. - The stock is at a critical technical turning point, remaining above all major moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at HKD 15.34 providing recent support [1]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 15.2 and HKD 13.6, while resistance is seen at HKD 18.3, with a potential challenge of HKD 20.2 if the upper resistance is breached [1]. - The current price is only 8.3% away from recent highs, while there is a 10% adjustment space to the first support level, necessitating careful risk-reward assessment [1]. Overbought Signals - Technical indicators show significant overbought conditions, with the RSI reaching 84, indicating substantial short-term adjustment pressure [3]. - Multiple oscillators are signaling sell conditions, with the Williams and stochastic indicators also reflecting overbought status [3]. - Momentum indicators are suggesting a "sell" signal, reinforcing the caution for investors regarding potential short-term pullbacks [3]. Derivative Products - Investors looking for opportunities in derivatives can consider UBS call warrant 13608, with a strike price of HKD 18.82 and a leverage of 5.1 times [5]. - Another option is HSBC call warrant 13606, also with a strike price of HKD 18.82, offering a leverage of 5.2 times, which is among the higher leverage options [5]. - JPMorgan call warrant 14482 provides a leverage of 4.9 times, with a premium of 15.63% and an implied volatility of 60.65%, suitable for investors optimistic about future market performance but wanting to manage premium costs [5].
BTC周線不妙?回抽做空?留意MACD背離!ETH還行嗎?
提阿非羅大人TiaBTC· 2025-08-18 20:00
Cryptocurrency Exchange Platforms - Bybit is highlighted as suitable for technical analysis [1] - Binance is mentioned for spot trading with up to 40% fee reduction [1] - OKX is noted as a reliable platform with low fees [1] - Bitget is promoted for copy trading, especially for beginners [1] Educational Resources and Community - Free one-month membership trial available upon registration and deposit (or reactivating old accounts) [1] - Customer support is available via Discord community (@tiahelper) [1] - Additional resources include a Twitter account, courses, and a Telegram channel [1] Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - Focus on technical analysis, including Dow Theory, Wave Theory, Fibonacci, Harmonic Patterns, and Natural Trading Theory [1] - Mentions of Gann Theory and references to classic trading literature like "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Jesse Livermore [1] Cryptocurrency and Market Focus - Discussion of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, Solana, Cardano, BNB, XRP, DOT, AVAX, LUNA, and UNI [1] - Mentions of Bitcoin contracts, options, and ETFs [1] - Includes hashtags related to Bitcoin halving in 2024, price predictions, and daily analysis [1]
美團技術拉鋸戰:123元關口多空激戰,突破在即?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-18 12:07
Core Viewpoint - Meituan's stock price is currently facing resistance from moving averages, indicating potential selling pressure despite short-term rebound signals from some indicators [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The stock opened at HKD 122.8, showing a 0.9% increase, with key support levels at HKD 117.8 and HKD 113.6, while resistance levels are at HKD 126.4 and HKD 131 [1][2]. - Technical indicators such as RSI at 44 suggest a neutral stance, while MACD and Bollinger Bands indicate ongoing selling signals [1][2]. Derivative Products Performance - In the context of Meituan's 4.19% stock increase on August 12, related leveraged products performed exceptionally well, with UBS bull certificates rising by 69% and JPMorgan bull certificates increasing by 53% [4]. - Call options like HSBC's (19143) and CCB's (17067) showed significant leverage, with HSBC's providing 5.7x leverage and a strike price of HKD 138.98 [7]. Selected Bull and Bear Certificates - UBS bull certificate (50199) leads with 12.8x actual leverage and a recovery price of HKD 115.4, while UBS bear certificate (61871) offers 7.4x leverage with a recovery price of HKD 138 [9].
BTC下跌才開始?是否有反彈?ETH還去新高嗎?
提阿非羅大人TiaBTC· 2025-08-15 19:17
Cryptocurrency Exchange Platforms - The document promotes Bybit as suitable for technical analysis [1] - Binance is recommended for spot trading with a fee reduction of up to 40% [1] - OKX is highlighted as a reliable platform with low fees [1] - Bitget is presented as a platform for copy trading, especially beneficial for beginners [1] Promotional Offers - Users can get a free one-month membership trial by registering and depositing funds or reactivating old accounts [1] Topics Covered - The document covers various topics including Bitcoin, Ethereum, technical analysis, Dow Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci sequence, harmonic patterns, Gann theory, and more [1] - It also mentions concepts like hardware wallets, Bitcoin contracts/options/ETFs, and trading strategies such as bottom fishing, going long/short, and hedging [1] Social Media and Community - The document provides links to a Discord community, Twitter, a course website, and a Telegram channel [1]
藥明生物(02269)短線分析:突破在即還是回調將至?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 10:45
消息面上,據藥明生物官微消息,8月12日,公司宣佈,其超高效連續灌流生產技術平臺WuXiUP成功完成中試規模的端到端全自動化原液連續 生產,未來將進一步在主要GMP生產基地推廣應用,以更高效、更靈活的技術能力,賦能客戶加速生物藥從研發到商業化的全進程。 【即時市況觀察】 2025年8月14日星期四下午15時24分,藥明生物股價報30.7元。股價已成功站上10日均線30.69元,並突破30日均線29.25元,短期技術走勢轉強。目前股價正 挑戰33.8元的重要阻力位,若能突破,將打開進一步上行空間。 【技術指標深度解讀】 從技術面來看,藥明生物呈現"買入"信號,技術指標強度達10。MACD指標維持買入信號,顯示中期趨勢向好。RSI指標62處於中性偏強區域,尚未進入超 買區,暗示仍有上行潛力。保力加通道顯示股價在中軌上方運行,波動率維持穩定。值得注意的是,CCI指標處於中性區域,威廉指標與隨機震盪指標也呈 現中性,反映市場仍在等待更明確的方向指引。 對於看好後市的投資者,滙豐認購證14447提供2.2倍槓桿,行使價29.15元,其低溢價特性可有效降低持倉成本。瑞銀認購證15586同樣值得關注,行使價 29.15元, ...