Core Insights - There are signs that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumer prices, although the transmission is slow [1] - In August, core goods prices in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the 0.2% increases in June and July [1] - Year-on-year, core goods prices increased by 1.5%, marking the fastest growth since May 2023 [1] - Automobile prices have risen again, with some metrics showing a significant increase [1] - Despite the rise in goods prices, a decline in service prices has kept overall core inflation steady at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1] - This inflation data is likely to reassure the Federal Reserve, indicating that a rate cut in September will not pose excessive risks to its price stability mission [1]

Group 1 - The August consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to proceed with interest rate cuts during its policy meeting on September 16-17, despite the inflation data [1] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with July's figures [2]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the preference for duration in the market has increased, particularly for fixed-rate preferred stocks, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [2][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for $25 fixed-rate preferred stocks has reached a nine-month high, surpassing the demand for $1,000 floating-rate preferred stocks, with the former rising by 2.9% in the second half of the year compared to a 0.9% increase for the latter [4][8]. - The report indicates that despite the rising demand and yields, $25 preferred stocks remain cheaper than $1,000 preferred stocks, with a spread of approximately 63 basis points, which is in the 84th percentile since 2012 [8]. Group 2 - For cautious investors, the report suggests focusing on older $1,000 preferred stocks, which have lower yields but shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity, providing a yield premium of over 100 basis points compared to investment-grade bonds [14]. - The report notes that the average back-end spread for newly issued preferred stocks in 2025 is only 275 basis points, the narrowest on record, indicating a potential increase in extension risk [14][17].

Inflation Trends - The U.S. July CPI growth rate slightly decreased to 0.20% month-on-month from 0.29% in June, primarily due to falling energy prices, while the year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%[6] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, exceeding market expectations of 0.29%, with year-on-year growth rising from 2.9% to 3.1%[6] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 86% to 94%, with an anticipated total cut of 60 basis points for the year[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in September, with potential cuts in October and December[1] Core Inflation Components - Core goods prices remained stable month-on-month, while core service prices saw a significant rebound, with core services month-on-month growth rising from 0.21% to 0.48%[6] - Rent, which accounts for nearly 35% of the CPI, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.27%, returning to pre-pandemic levels[6] Employment and Economic Outlook - Non-farm employment growth has recently declined, influenced by both demand slowdown and reduced immigrant labor supply, while the unemployment rate remains low historically[1] - The inflation rate is expected to rebound in August and September, with projections indicating a year-on-year CPI growth of 2.9% to 3%[6]

Inflation Trends - The core CPI in the US rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%, marking the second-highest rise since April 2024[3] - Core durable goods prices increased significantly by 0.36% month-on-month, while energy prices fell by 1.07%, indicating the impact of elevated tariff rates on goods inflation[4] - The labor market's cooling has not significantly affected inflation, as average hourly wages rebounded, sustaining the wage inflation spiral[4] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong rebound in core inflation may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, as maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2% becomes challenging[5] - The ongoing high tariff rates, ranging from 10% to 41%, are expected to further influence the core CPI in the coming months as trade agreements are finalized[5] - The anticipated effects of large-scale tax cuts for residents and businesses have yet to materialize, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist[5] Economic Outlook - The current economic cycle is likely to remain heated, with potential upward pressure on core inflation due to a tighter labor market and rising wage growth[5] - The divergence in monetary policy among major developed economies may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index as it adjusts to real interest rate differentials[5] - Risks include the possibility that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not meet expectations, which could constrain monetary easing in other countries[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase, with core CPI rebounding to over 3%, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may increase internal disagreements within the Fed regarding policy decisions [2][5][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the core CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, and year-on-year rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations. Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][5]. - The inflation characteristics in July showed moderate goods prices and a rebound in services. Tariff costs are still being passed on to consumers, but some prices have started to decline [3][4]. Goods Price Analysis - The core goods price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month. Notable increases were seen in furniture (+0.9%), curtains (+1.2%), and audio-visual equipment (+0.8%). However, some previously rising categories like appliances (-2.2%) and men's clothing (-1.3%) showed weakness [3]. - Used car prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while new car prices stabilized, indicating a potential shift in pricing strategies by manufacturers due to institutionalized tariff policies [3][5]. Services Price Analysis - The supercore price index, excluding rent, increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with significant contributions from previously declining airfares, which surged by 4%. This suggests a stabilization in travel activities [4][5]. - Other service prices, including vehicle maintenance (+1.2%) and medical services (+0.8%), continued to rise, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [4]. Overall Inflation Outlook - The July CPI data does not alter the outlook for U.S. inflation, which is expected to rise structurally. The effects of tariff cost pass-through are anticipated to become more evident in the coming months, with core goods inflation facing upward risks [5][6]. - The Fed may struggle to reach a consensus on policy direction due to the mixed signals from inflation data, leading to increased volatility in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, has expressed concerns about the risks of core inflation being influenced by a higher overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is monitoring the potential impact of rising overall CPI on core inflation [1] - Ueda emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation trends in the economy [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures in Japan's economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need to pay closer attention to core inflation and its potential impact on inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on core inflation as a critical factor influencing overall inflation trends [1] - There is a recognition that changes in core inflation could significantly affect public and market expectations regarding future inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the core inflation results are very much in line with expectations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Inflation Insights** - Core inflation results align closely with market expectations, indicating stability in the economic outlook [1]