美联储主席鲍威尔：工资增长有所放缓，但仍高于通胀。 ...

Group 1 - The overall core inflation is largely in line with the target set by the European Central Bank [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - Labor costs are continuing to trend towards moderation [1] Group 2 - Wage growth is expected to further slow down [1] - The economic outlook faces downside risks [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that overall core inflation is in line with targets [1] - Labor costs continue to ease, indicating a potential slowdown in wage growth [1] - Wage growth is expected to further decelerate, which may impact consumer spending and economic growth [1]

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in 20 months and the fifth consecutive month of decline, as inflation continues to outpace wage growth [1] - The average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 is reported at 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, following increases of 5.10% and 3.58% in the previous two years [1] - Nominal cash earnings grew by only 1.0% in May, the lowest increase since March 2024, significantly lagging behind the 4.0% rise in consumer inflation [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage trends as they are crucial for maintaining consumer momentum and determining the timing of future interest rate hikes [2] - There is a possibility that the Bank of Japan may raise its inflation forecasts in the upcoming quarterly economic report due to inflation rates exceeding expectations [2] - The rising inflation and rental prices in Tokyo signal a deepening inflation trend in the economy, providing a basis for potential interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [3] Group 3 - Tokyo apartment rents are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years, with a 1.3% year-on-year increase in April-May, indicating that inflation is permeating the rental market [3] - The increase in rents is seen as a sign of a shift towards normalization in monetary policy, as it reflects rising base prices [3] - The Bank of Japan has identified the real estate market as a key area to monitor closely in its semi-annual financial system report [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists predict that wages in Japan are likely to continue to grow next year, following the largest wage increase in 34 years reported by the country's largest labor union organization [1] Group 1: Wage Growth - The final results of this year's wage negotiations indicate a significant wage increase in Japan [1] - Economists note that labor shortages are compelling companies to raise wages to retain workers, despite concerns about trade uncertainties affecting wage growth [1] - Even with weaker corporate profits potentially exerting downward pressure on salary increases in next year's labor negotiations, the impact is expected to be limited [1]

Group 1 - Japanese companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25% this year, marking the largest increase in 34 years and achieving strong growth for the third consecutive year [1] - The average bonus payment for major companies this summer increased by 4.37% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 990,848 yen [1] - A significant labor shortage in Japan, particularly in non-manufacturing sectors and small businesses, has reached historical levels, leading to some companies going bankrupt [1] Group 2 - Two-thirds of Japanese companies believe that labor shortages are severely impacting their business [2] - There is a growing consensus among companies that salary increases must exceed inflation, which is currently around 3.7% for core consumer price index [2] - Stable wage growth is crucial for maintaining a consumption-driven economic recovery, which is also a prerequisite for the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes [2] Group 3 - Mizuho Research & Technologies forecasts a 4.7% wage growth next year, assuming a decline in oil prices to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits [2] - Daiwa Securities anticipates average wage growth between 4.5% and 4.9% next year, emphasizing the need for non-manufacturers to take the lead in salary increases [2] - Current trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are stalled, with threats of tariffs on Japanese imports potentially rising to 35% [2]

Group 1 - The UK services sector experienced its fastest expansion in nearly a year in June, with the final value of the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.9 in May to 52.8, indicating the quickest growth since August 2024 [1] - The rate of price increases in the services sector fell to its lowest level in nearly four years, suggesting that price pressures monitored by the Bank of England are easing [1] - Despite a significant increase in new business, concerns about political and economic uncertainty have led to a slight decrease in business expectations for the coming year [1][2] Group 2 - The composite PMI rose from 50.3 in May to 52.0, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector after a prolonged downturn [1] - A survey indicated that the annual wage growth rate for UK businesses reached 4.6% in Q1 2025, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - 29% of UK businesses expect a decline in sales due to changes in US trade policy, highlighting the impact of global economic conditions on local enterprises [2]

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that wage growth remained stable in June, with a year-over-year increase for retained employees at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.5% in May [1] - For employees who changed jobs, wage growth was recorded at 6.8%, a minor decrease from the previous month's 7.0% [1] Wage Growth Analysis - Retained employees experienced a wage growth of 4.4% in June compared to the same month last year, showing minimal change from May's 4.5% [1] - Job switchers saw a wage growth of 6.8% in June, which is a slight decline from the 7.0% reported in May [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the best strategy to address rising prices is to achieve wage growth and increase the distribution of profits to workers [1]

Group 1 - The increase in May is attributed to the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with wage growth outpacing home price increases [1] - Mortgage rate fluctuations are the primary driver of home buying decisions, significantly impacting housing affordability more than wage growth [1]