Core Insights - The U.S. labor cost growth unexpectedly slowed in Q4, marking the smallest annual increase in four and a half years due to softening labor demand [1][3] Labor Cost Index - The Employment Cost Index (ECI), a comprehensive measure of labor costs, rose by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.8% in Q3, and below economists' expectations of 0.8% growth [1][3] - Year-on-year, labor costs increased by 3.4% as of December, the smallest increase since Q2 2021, compared to a 3.5% increase as of September [1][3] Labor Market Conditions - The weak performance of the labor market is suppressing wage growth, with the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals falling to 0.87 in December from 0.89 in November, down from approximately 1.08 a year ago [1][3] Wage Growth - Wages and salaries, which constitute a major part of labor costs, increased by 0.7% in Q4, down from 0.8% in Q3, and year-on-year, they rose by 3.3%, lower than the 3.5% increase as of September [2][5] - After adjusting for inflation, overall real wages increased by 0.7% over the 12 months ending in December, compared to a 0.6% increase in Q3 [2][5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite easing wage pressures, import tariffs have driven up commodity prices, keeping inflation elevated [4] - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with the benchmark rate currently set between 3.50% and 3.75% [5]

Group 1: Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% [1] - Analysts suggest that if expectations for further rate cuts increase, it could boost gold prices [1] - Technically, gold has been oscillating between $4180 and $4260, with key support at $4195 and resistance at $4250 [1] Group 2: Oil - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels, which was less than expected, leading to bearish sentiment for oil prices [2] - The EIA's short-term energy report indicates that global supply growth is outpacing demand, predicting a 2 million barrels per day increase in oil inventories next year [2] - Technically, oil faced resistance at $60.47 and is expected to test support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The recent Fed rate cut faced dissent from three members, indicating potential challenges for future cuts [3] - The dollar index has been experiencing wide fluctuations, with a recent resistance level at 100.40 and potential support at 96.60 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has struggled to break above the resistance level of 51000, with a potential test of support at 49470 [5] Group 5: Copper - Copper prices have been consolidating at high levels, with a potential upward target of $5.38, while support is noted at $5.23 [6] Group 6: Market Overview - The Fed's decision to cut rates and purchase $40 billion in short-term debt was confirmed, with a maintained expectation of one rate cut each in the next two years [7] - The U.S. labor cost growth has reached a four-year low [7] - Tensions are rising as the U.S. detained a Venezuelan oil tanker, with Venezuela's president responding defiantly [7]

Core Insights - Croatia's labor costs have experienced explosive growth in recent years, with administrative expenses causing labor costs to exceed productivity levels [1] - Since 2019, the minimum wage has increased by 92%, and labor costs have risen by 61.6%, which is 2.5 times the EU average increase [1] - The public sector wage budget has grown by 58% over two years, with the gap between public sector average wages and the average wages in the real economy reaching a historical high of 32.3% [1] Labor Market Comparison - The Croatian Labor Minister compared wage levels between Croatia and Slovenia, noting that in 2016, Croatia's minimum wage was 50% of Slovenia's, but it has now risen to 75% [1] - In terms of average wages, Croatia's wages have increased from 72% of Slovenia's average to 90% [1] - Croatia's unemployment rate is currently at a historical low, indicating a tight labor market [1] Government Objectives - The Croatian government aims to continue increasing the minimum wage in line with average and median wages through social dialogue, encouraging economic development, and implementing measures to reduce labor costs [1]

Core Insights - The nominal hourly labor cost in the Eurozone increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, compared to a 3.4% increase in Q1 2025 [1] - The overall nominal hourly labor cost in the EU rose by 4.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly down from 4.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Croatia's nominal hourly labor cost growth slowed to 9.2% in Q2 2025, down from 13.5% in Q1 2025 [2] Labor Cost Breakdown - In the Eurozone, wages and salaries grew by 3.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while non-wage costs increased by 3.4% [1] - In the EU, wages and salaries rose by 4.1%, and non-wage costs increased by 3.8% [1] - The construction sector saw the highest labor cost increases, with Eurozone and EU costs rising by 4.7% and 4.8% respectively [1] Country-Specific Insights - Bulgaria recorded the highest nominal hourly labor cost increase at 13.2%, followed by Hungary at 10.9%, Romania at 10.4%, and Estonia at 10.3% [1] - France had the slowest growth in labor costs at 1.4%, with Malta following at 1.8% [1]

Economic Outlook - The economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved in September, with the economic sentiment index rising by 1.0 points to 26.1, exceeding market expectations of 20.3 [1] - The current economic situation index also improved by 2.4 points to -28.8, indicating a more favorable outlook [1] - Approximately 51.7% of surveyed analysts expect stable economic activity, while 37.2% anticipate improvement, and 11.1% foresee deterioration [1] Labor Costs - Eurozone hourly labor costs increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 3.7% but higher than the revised 3.4% in Q1 [1] - Wage growth was recorded at 3.7% in Q2, up from 3.5% in Q1, while non-wage costs grew by 3.4%, compared to the previous 3.2% [1] - Labor costs in the business economy sector rose by 4.0%, with construction leading at 4.7%, followed by services at 4.3%, and industry at 3.3% [1] Industrial Production - Eurozone industrial production increased by 0.3% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.6% and aligning with market expectations [2] - Year-on-year, industrial production grew by 1.8%, significantly faster than the 0.7% growth in June [2] - Notable increases were seen in capital goods production, which rebounded by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and non-durable consumer goods by 1.5% [2] Economic Dynamics - The data indicates a recovery in economic momentum within the Eurozone, although persistently high labor costs may support inflation [3]

Group 1 - The UK job market is experiencing a cooling trend, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.7% in the second quarter, the highest level in nearly four years [1] - The number of registered jobs in the UK has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a decline in employment opportunities [1] - There were 718,000 job vacancies in the UK from May to July 2025, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year and down 9.7% compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] Group 2 - 16 out of 18 monitored industries in the UK reported a reduction in job vacancies, with significant declines noted in the hospitality and retail sectors [1] - Continuous wage growth is posing challenges for businesses and the economy, leading many employers to halt hiring or implement layoffs [1] - A recent survey indicated that 73% of respondents identified high labor costs as the biggest pressure on business expenditures [1]

Group 1 - The overall core inflation is largely in line with the target set by the European Central Bank [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - Labor costs are continuing to trend towards moderation [1] Group 2 - Wage growth is expected to further slow down [1] - The economic outlook faces downside risks [1]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that overall core inflation is in line with targets, indicating a stable inflation environment [1] - Labor costs are continuing to ease, suggesting potential for improved economic conditions and consumer spending [1] Economic Indicators - Core inflation metrics are meeting the ECB's objectives, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - The easing of labor costs could lead to a more favorable economic outlook, potentially impacting wage growth and consumer confidence [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that overall core inflation is in line with targets [1] - Labor costs continue to ease, indicating a potential slowdown in wage growth [1] - Wage growth is expected to further decelerate, which may impact consumer spending and economic growth [1]

Core Insights - 43% of businesses in Canada expect labor costs to decrease over the next 12 months, while only 9% anticipate an increase [1] Group 1 - A significant majority of companies (43%) foresee a reduction in labor costs, indicating a potential easing of wage pressures in the market [1] - A minority of companies (9%) predict an increase in labor costs, suggesting that some sectors may still face upward wage pressures [1]