Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that the cotton price will continue to be weak in the later period, and suggests a short - term bearish approach [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,495 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 20,406 lots, an increase of 1,066 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 167 lots, a decrease of 47 lots [2]. - The position volume of the main cotton contract is 530,559 lots, a decrease of 4,260 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract is 5,258 lots, a decrease of 1,382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 3,173, a decrease of 224; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count yarn is 20,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,301 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count yarn is 21,380 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,158 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count combed yarn is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,627 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily import cotton profit is 899 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, a decrease of 1.31 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1414.5904 million US dollars, a decrease of 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1239.3202 million US dollars, an increase of 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton is 13.26%, an increase of 2.61%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton is 13.26%, an increase of 2.64% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.92%, a decrease of 1.64%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.29%, an increase of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2,020 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 45,420 lots, an increase of 2,771 lots from the previous week [2]. - As of September 23, about 49% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 41% the previous week [2]. - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; the export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2]. View Summary - In China, cotton harvesting has started in northern Xinjiang, with a strong expectation of increased production. The purchase price of seed cotton has decreased, and the downstream textile enterprises are not enthusiastic about restocking, mostly adopting a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2]. - The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the continuous accumulation of cotton yarn inventory has further pressured the market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] Core Viewpoints - The new cotton season shows a significant increase in production, with the expected total cotton output in 2025 reaching 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and an upward adjustment of 32.1 million tons from the previous period, hitting a new high since 2013. With only a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,780 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 23,381 lots, an increase of 1,105 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 87 lots, an increase of 134 lots. The main contract positions for cotton are 525,141 lots, down 3,151 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 9,561 lots, down 2,220 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,583 sheets, down 133 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,336 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,181 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,615 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,464 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; for imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn, it is 22,652 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 million tons, an increase of 54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,532 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The daily import cotton profit is 881 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 million tons, down 70.81 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 202.79 million tons, an increase of 3.64 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,414,590.4 million US dollars, down 101,585.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,239,320.2 million US dollars, up 78,919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.95%, down 1.49%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.95%, down 1.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.29%, up 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.17%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 66.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, but the recovery of the operating rate has slowed down. Although it is the peak season, the downstream orders have limited growth. Most inland textile enterprises maintain a balance between procurement and sales, with an operating rate of 50% - 60% in inland areas and about 90% in Xinjiang. ICE cotton futures closed down on Wednesday, pressured by the strengthening US dollar [2] Viewpoint Summary - The 2025 national cotton is expected to have a total output of 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - With a small amount of new cotton on the market, a significant increase in production in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened. Therefore, short - term operations are recommended to be bearish [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,555, up 15; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 24,486, down 5,549; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 528,292, down 4,509; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 3,716, down 199 - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,860, up 200; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 47, up 121; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,781, down 2,500; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,062, down 71; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,336, up 69; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14,181, up 34 - China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,615, unchanged; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,442, up 10; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,628, up 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,553, up 71; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 87, up 1.3 - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 7, up 2; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130,000, up 20,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 986, down 86; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 148.17, down 70.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 26.58, down 0.65; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.87, down 1.31 - Cloth production: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.01, up 0.01; yarn production: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 202.79, up 3.64 - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,414,590.4, down 101,585.5; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,239,320.2, up 78,919.3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.04; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.03 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 9.03, up 0.09; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 7.18, up 0.17 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of September 19, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1426 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1292 million tons (a decrease of 10.16%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 0.5646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0852 million tons (a decrease of 13.11%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 0.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0395 million tons (a decrease of 11.92%) - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose on Tuesday, ending a four - day losing streak, driven by strong demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.42 cents, or 0.50%, to settle at 66.64 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton grower branch surveyed the cotton growth situation and the second - estimated output of 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provincial - level regions and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The survey shows that the national estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.321 million tons from the previous period, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the support for cotton prices is weakening due to the small - scale listing of new cotton, significant production increase in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish stance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,540 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,660 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 18,937 lots, up 1,458 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 168 lots, up 299 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest: 532,801 lots, up 10,524 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 14,281 lots, down 1,753 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 3,915 lots, down 181 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,133 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,615 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,267 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,147 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,432 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,618 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - Cotton import volume: 70 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons [2] - Imported cotton profit: 1,072 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 14817 thousand tons, down 7081 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.58 days, down 0.65 days;坯布 inventory days: 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - Cloth production: 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; yarn production: 20279 thousand tons, up 364 thousand tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1414590.4 million US dollars, down 101585.5 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1239320.2 million US dollars, up 78919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.48%, down 0.35%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.47%, down 0.33% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.94%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.02%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,118 lots, down 53 lots from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 112,767 lots, down 8,738 lots; net short positions were 42,649 lots, down 8,685 lots [2] - In August 2025, the survey by the Cotton Growers Branch of the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the national cotton output was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2] - ICE cotton futures were stable on Monday after hitting a more than two - week low. The December cotton futures contract fell 0.07 cents, or 0.09%, to settle at 66.22 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton investment [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - New cotton has started to be available in small quantities, with a significant increase in production in the new season. Given the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,610 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,675 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,395 lots, down 804 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 467 lots, up 10 lots [2] - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 522,277 lots, up 13,028 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 16,034 lots, down 1,410 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, down 136; for cotton yarn, it was 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,705 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,284 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the FCIndexM with sliding - scale duty was 14,152 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,703 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; for cotton yarn, it was 110 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The profit from importing cotton was 1,059 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the坯布 inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2027.9 thousand tons, up 36.4 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1414.59 million US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 1239.32 million US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 11.83%, up 0.37%; for at - the - money put options, it was 11.8%, up 0.35% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.14%, down 1.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.96%, down 0.25% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton farmers' branch surveyed 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The national cotton sown area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [2] - As of the week ending September 16, about 41% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 32% the previous week [2] - From September 5 - 11, 2025, the net export signing volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 42.2 thousand tons, a 44% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. China signed to import 998 tons [2] - The shipment volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 27.3 thousand tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [2] - The survey showed that the national cotton output in 2025 was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, an 8.3% year - on - year increase, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase, while the estimated ending inventory will decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market [2] - In the domestic market, inventory remains low, market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinners' operating rates remain low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,910 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 34,624 lots, up 325 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 390 lots, down 218 lots [2] - The main contract holdings of cotton are 491,292 lots, down 1,339 lots; the main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 19,602 lots, down 680 lots [2] - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 4,615 sheets, down 144 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 87 sheets, down 2 sheets [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,419 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,224 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,771 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,465 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily import cotton profit is 1,076 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - The monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1991.5 thousand tons, down 73.5 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 11.97%, up 0.91%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 11.96%, up 0.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.12%, up 0.07% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, compared with 54% the previous week and 39% the same period last year [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday due to the falling US dollar exchange rate. The December ICE cotton futures contract rose 0.84 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 67.68 cents per pound [2] - The USDA's September global cotton supply - and - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 25.622 million tons, up 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is up 183 thousand tons to 25.872 million tons; and global ending inventory is down 168 thousand tons to 15.924 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively positive for the cotton market as global production and consumption are adjusted upwards while the estimated ending inventory is adjusted downwards. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning mills' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,900 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,405 lots, down 1,108 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 314 lots, down 26 lots [2] - Cotton main contract positions are 498,295 lots, down 8,077 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 21,140 lots, down 346 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,899 sheets, down 118 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 89 sheets, down 1 sheet [2] - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,249 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,755 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,371 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,462 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,205 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,817 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,506 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume is 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit is 1,043 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 0.7081 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - Cloth production is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; yarn production is 1.9915 million tons, down 0.0735 million tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 104.955 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 444.198 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 11.03%, down 0.16%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 11.03%, down 0.16% [2] - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 9.38%, up 0.31%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 6.99%, up 0.05% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, US cotton futures non - commercial long positions decreased by 301 lots, non - commercial short positions increased by 2,821 lots, and net short positions increased by 3,122 lots [2] - In the 2025/26 US cotton supply - demand outlook for September, production is expected to increase by 10,000 bales to 13.2 million bales, while export, consumption, import and inventory remain unchanged [2] - The global cotton supply - demand report in September shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 25.622 million tons, up 231,000 tons; global consumption is up 183,000 tons to 25.872 million tons; global ending inventory is down 168,000 tons to 15.924 million tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to favorable weather in US cotton - growing areas and a stronger US dollar, US cotton prices have declined. In the domestic market, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Before a large amount of new cotton is listed, domestic old - crop supply is tight and demand is expected to improve, but short - term external price drops have dragged down the domestic market. It is expected that futures prices will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,990 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 52,030 lots, an increase of 2,488 lots; the main contract's cotton position was 524,531 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots; cotton warehouse receipts were 5,996 lots, a decrease of 135 lots. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn was 19,965 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 580 lots, a decrease of 70 lots; the main contract's cotton yarn position was 24,910 lots, an increase of 412 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 59 lots, a decrease of 1 lot [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B) was 15,465 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff) was 13,492 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) was 14,282 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan. The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,776 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn, it was 23,475 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged. The daily profit of imported cotton was 1,231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days. The monthly cloth output was 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 79 million meters; the monthly yarn output was 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1516.1759 million US dollars, a decrease of 10.4955 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1160.4009 million US dollars, a decrease of 44.4198 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 11.78%, a decrease of 0.45%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.07%, an increase of 0.3%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.45%, an increase of 0.05% [2] Industry News - According to the US Department of Agriculture's crop growth report, as of the week ending August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 44% the same period last year. The boll - setting rate was 90%, up from 81% the previous week, lower than 94% the same period last year and the five - year average of 93%. The full - boll rate was 28%, up from 20% the previous week, lower than 35% the same period last year and the five - year average of 30%. On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract fell 0.72%. On Wednesday, the Cotton 2601 contract fell 0.71%, and the Cotton Yarn 2511 contract fell 0.47% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View In the pre - new cotton - dominant period, the supply of old cotton in the domestic market is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the spot price is firm, with the futures price expected to fluctuate upward. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,995 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 54,518 lots, a decrease of 2,529 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it's - 510 lots, an increase of 10 lots [2]. - The main contract positions of cotton are 521,766 lots, a decrease of 7,167 lots; for cotton yarn, it's 24,498 lots, an increase of 536 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 6,131 sheets, a decrease of 189 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 60 sheets, an increase of 3 sheets [2]. - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,479 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan; China's yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,492 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,766 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,282 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,463 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,301 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 85.7 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 5 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The profit from imported cotton is 1,298 yuan/ton, an increase of 252 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days; the grey - cloth inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 15,161,759,000 US dollars, a decrease of 104,955,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,604,009,000 US dollars, a decrease of 444,198,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.23%, an increase of 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.23%, an increase of 0.38% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.77%, an increase of 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.4%, a decrease of 0.34% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 29, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory is 1.547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 165,600 tons (a decrease of 9.67%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 849,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,200 tons (a decrease of 13.74%); the commercial cotton in the inland area is 386,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,900 tons (a decrease of 3.95%) [2]. - ICE was closed on Monday. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.18%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.20%. Domestically, cotton is in the de - inventory stage, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, with the spot price firm [2]. - China's quota for the sliding - scale duty on imported cotton for processing trade in 2025 is 200,000 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures price closed lower. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. [2] - The total quota of China's 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade is 200,000 tons, which puts short - term pressure on the cotton main contract futures price. [2] - On the demand side, although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season. The start - up rate of some previously shut - down enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. [2] - Overall, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. In the medium term, the price is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 57,567 hands, down 3,023 hands; main contract holdings of cotton: 508,064 hands, up 3,455 hands; cotton warehouse receipts: 6,977 sheets, down 127 sheets; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B): 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 13,610 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty): 14,367 yuan/ton. [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,130 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 516 hands, up 193 hands; main contract holdings of cotton yarn: 22,263 hands, down 13 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 63 sheets, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 20,760 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count): 21,880 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count): 23,749 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The relevant price data in the futures market also reflects the spot market situation to some extent, including the price changes of domestic and imported cotton and cotton yarn. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area in 2025 is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B): 5,426 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; cotton import volume in the current month: 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume in the current month: 110,000 tons, unchanged; import cotton profit: 868 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 640,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; cloth output in the current month: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; yarn output in the current month: 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1,516,175,900 US dollars, down 10,495,500 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1,160,400,900 US dollars, down 44,419,800 US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.34%, up 0.26%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.35%, up 0.24%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.38%, up 0.15%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.68%, down 0.06%. [2] Industry News - China's 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 55% in the previous week and 40% in the same period last year. On Monday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 0.91%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.15%. [2]