交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-22燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：低硫燃料油现货溢价跌至三个月低点，市场结构小幅下滑，高硫燃油现货基准价差徘徊在近 五年低点水平，在下游船加油市场，短期内消化充足货物的压力可能仍是高硫燃料油交付溢价的潜在阻力， 而大部分需求主要集中在买家的定期合约提货量上；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为403.49美元/吨，基差为60元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为508.5美元/吨，基差 为136元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月16日当周库存为2035.9万桶，减少45万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-21燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：原油利好支撑，但下游需求偏弱运行，市场心态持续观望，调油商多维稳待市，市场交投淡 稳。供船市场来看，航运市场运行平淡，终端采购积极性偏弱，多维持谨慎心态，供船市场多稳价刚需成 交为主；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为395.68美元/吨，基差为17元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为503.5美元/吨，基差 为70元/吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月16日当周库存为2035.9万桶，减少45万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, fuel oil prices rebounded overall, and the strength comparison between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil changed. For high-sulfur fuel oil, global refinery operations reached a seasonal high, and exports from the Middle East and Russia increased significantly. Despite the relatively strong price trend compared to low-sulfur fuel oil this week and being in the peak demand season for marine and power generation, it is difficult for high-sulfur fuel oil to have continuous upward movement due to the obvious supply recovery. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply recovery trend is also obvious. The maintenance of Japanese refineries is gradually ending, exports from Brazil are gradually recovering, and exports from Kuwait are also increasing, which may lead to a weakening of spot prices in the Asia-Pacific region in the future. In the domestic market, major refineries are likely to ensure gasoline and diesel production in the next two months, so they will not significantly increase low-sulfur fuel oil production, and the domestic LU price still has fundamental support in the short term [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2850 - 3000, LU: 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Follow the upward trend of crude oil and fluctuate strongly. 2) Inter - term: The back structure of FU and LU continues, but the increase in near - term supply will suppress the monthly spread at a low level. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread has fallen to the historical average; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), including independent refineries and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 are shown [19]. Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [22]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2025 are provided [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are presented [34][35][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [40][41][44]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU from 2021 - 2025 are presented [47][50][53]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the price spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, as well as the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are provided [57][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [62][64][65]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2023 - 2025 are provided [69][70]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [75][77][78]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions are provided [80]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions are provided [82]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Futures and Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets from 2021 - 2025 are presented [85][89][90]. - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: Data on the position and volume changes of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [95][97][100]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the warehouse receipt quantity changes of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 are presented [106][107][108].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-18燃料油早报 1. 夏季发电需求预期抬升 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：尽管近几周东西方套利窗口持续关闭，但贸易商预计7月来自欧洲市场整体的到货量环比将增 加30-40万吨，部分原因在于南美和西非地区的套利货物流入量增多；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为397.94美元/吨，基差为65元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为509.5美元/吨，基差 为117元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月16日当周库存为2035.9万桶，减少45万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-17燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：尽管近几周东西方套利窗口持续关闭，但贸易商预计7月来自欧洲市场整体的到货量环比将增 加30-40万吨，部分原因在于南美和西非地区的套利货物流入量增多；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为397.94美元/吨，基差为65元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为509.5美元/吨，基差 为117元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月9日当周库存为2080.9万桶，减少52万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fuel oil market lacks upward momentum. With the US threat of tariffs on Russia not restricting its oil exports, the fuel fundamentals easing, and the summer power generation demand not fully released, the short - term prices will fluctuate. FU2509 will operate in the 2850 - 2900 range, and LU2509 will operate in the 3620 - 3680 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamental analysis: The Singapore marine fuel market has sufficient low - sulfur fuel oil inventory in the short term, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The seasonal power generation demand in South Asia has not substantially supported the market. The monsoon rains have alleviated the summer heat. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 63 yuan/ton at 404.16 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 69 yuan/ton at 512.5 dollars/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of July 9 was 20.809 billion barrels, a decrease of 520,000 barrels, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [3]. - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are short, with a decrease in short positions, both are bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term fuel prices will fluctuate. FU2509 will operate in the 2850 - 2900 range, and LU2509 will operate in the 3620 - 3680 range [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: There is an expected increase in summer power generation demand [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures prices: The current FU main contract futures price is 2919, up 11 (0.38%); the LU main contract futures price is 3679, up 39 (1.07%). The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil is 63 yuan/ton, down 117 (- 64.94%); the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil is 69 yuan/ton, down 114 (- 62.42%) [5]. - Spot prices: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 522 dollars/ton, up 12 (2.35%); the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 527 dollars/ton, up 12 (2.33%); the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 404.16 dollars/ton, down 14.55 (- 3.47%); the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 512.5 dollars/ton, down 8 (- 1.54%); the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 383.31 dollars/ton, down 14.48 (- 3.64%); the price of Singapore diesel is 650.33 dollars/ton, down 5.44 (- 0.83%) [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 9 was 2080.9 million barrels, a decrease of 520,000 barrels compared to the previous period [3]. The historical inventory data from April 23 to July 2 shows fluctuations in inventory levels [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：受近期供应紧张支撑，过去两周走强的含硫0.5%船用燃料油市场短期内将维持区间波动。供 应紧俏局面同时推高了新加坡低硫燃料油与MOPS高硫燃料油价差（Hi-5价差），该价差7月7日评估为 99.92美元/吨，接近7月3日创下的七个多月高点106.77美元/吨；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为406.72美元/吨，基差为34元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为514.5美元/吨，基差 为117元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月2日当周库存为2132.9万桶，减少142万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空 6、预期：市场暂时忽视OPEC+增产以及美国关税的 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-07燃料油早报 1、基本面：贸易商表示，当前新加坡地区高硫燃料油供应量远超需求消化能力，而孟加拉国、斯里兰卡 等南亚国家夏季发电需求今年迄今未能提供有力支撑；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为406.76美元/吨，基差为37元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为522.5美元/吨，基差 为211元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月2日当周库存为2132.9万桶，减少142万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空 6、预期：亚洲 ...

燃料油： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-04燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 1、基本面：贸易商表示，尽管夏季发电需求带来季节性支撑，但新加坡地区因船货需求疲软而面临供应 过剩局面；亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近，此前380CST高硫燃料油的现货价差六周来首次 跌入负值区间；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为406.67美元/吨，基差为11元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为520.5美元/吨，基差 为191元/吨，现货升水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月2日当周库存为2132.9万桶，减少142万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力 ...

2025-07-03燃料油早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：贸易商表示，尽管夏季发电需求带来季节性支撑，但新加坡地区因船货需求疲软而面临供应 过剩局面；亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近，此前380CST高硫燃料油的现货价差六周来首次 跌入负值区间；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为403.9美元/吨，基差为18元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为516.5美元/吨，基差 为189元/吨，现货升水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油6月25日当周库存为2274.9万桶，减少15万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持 ...