1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn 12 - contract has limited downside space below 400 cents per bushel as the market price is below the cost and the yield per unit may be revised down later. The domestic corn spot price is expected to continue to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions, high warehouse receipts, lower planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 01 corn contract is expected to oscillate weakly and may fall to 2150 yuan per ton. The starch market will follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) August report raised the yield per unit and area of US corn, resulting in a record - high production. The US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, but it is significantly lower than the cost of 470 cents per bushel. As of August 15, 3.28 million tons of corn were auctioned, with 1.24 million tons sold, a transaction rate of 38%. The domestic corn spot price continues to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn, high 09 warehouse receipts, lower domestic planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The market expects that the price of North China corn will likely fall below 2200 yuan per ton when it is abundantly available in October, and the 01 corn contract may oscillate weakly and fall to 2150 yuan per ton [4]. - **Starch**: The starch factory operating rate has increased, but downstream demand remains weak. Although the corn spot price has declined, the starch spot price has also fallen, and starch factories are still suffering large losses. The operating rate of North China starch enterprises will decline later, and the North China starch price will continue to fall with the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 11 and 01 starch contracts are expected to follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the US corn 12 - contract, consider buying below 400 cents per bushel. For the domestic 01 corn contract, consider buying around 2150 yuan per ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the 01 and 11 corn and starch contracts. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The August report raised the area and yield per unit of US corn, causing the price to break below 400 cents per bushel for the 12 - contract. The import tariffs on US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has increased. As of August 5, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased, and the US ethanol production declined. Although the US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, the downside space is limited as the yield per unit may be revised down later [8][15]. - **Domestic Market - Corn**: Feed enterprise corn inventories have decreased compared to the previous period but are higher than the same period last year. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and their inventories have also decreased and are expected to continue to decline next week. Both the northern port corn inventories and southern port grain inventories have decreased [19][20][23]. - **Domestic Market - Starch**: The deep - processing operating rate has increased, with the national corn processing volume reaching 576,000 tons and starch production at 289,200 tons this week. The operating rate is 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. The profit loss has narrowed due to the decline in North China corn spot prices, stable starch spot prices, and strong by - product prices. Starch inventories have increased but are expected to decline next week [26][27]. - **Substitute - Wheat**: The wheat price is basically stable, with the North China delivered - to - factory price around 2450 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened, the North China corn price has declined, the Northeast corn price has remained stable, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract has increased [33]. - **Livestock and Poultry - Related**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing - Starch Downstream Consumption**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **US Corn**: As of August 7, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.49 million tons, and the cumulative export volume was 63.13 million tons. The weekly export volume to China was 0 tons, and the cumulative export volume to China was 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In June, the domestic corn import volume was 160,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 790,000 tons, compared with 1.105 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Corn and Starch**: As of August 14, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week and an increase of 2.07% compared to the same period last year. From August 7th to 14th, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62% from the previous week. As of August 8, the northern four - port corn inventory was 1.774 million tons, a decrease of 131,000 tons from the previous week, and the four - port shipping volume was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port decreased by 184,000 tons to 1.544 million tons [19][20][23]. - **Starch Market**: From August 7th to 14th, the national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, and starch production was 289,200 tons, with an operating rate of 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 90 yuan, an increase of 17 yuan from last week, and in Shandong, it was - 90 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan from last week. As of August 13, the corn starch inventory was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 1.6% and an annual increase of 20.3% [26][27]. - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing Downstream**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If the estimated increase in corn production in the US, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina is realized, the global corn market will remain relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to trade at low levels [2][34]. - In China, the area of new - season corn is slightly increasing, and the weather has been generally favorable so far, but there are concerns about drought in some regions. The supply of old - season corn is tight, but there are supplements from wheat and imported corn auctions. The price of domestic corn is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but its medium - term trend will face pressure due to the approaching new - season corn harvest and lower production costs [2][34]. - In terms of operation, the old - season contracts should be treated with a range - bound approach, while a bearish view is recommended for the new - season contracts [2][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Since July, domestic corn futures and spot prices have declined. The start of the auction of imported corn by Sinograin loosened the expectation of a tight supply pattern, leading to a wave of selling by spot grain holders. Later in the month, the market sentiment stabilized, and the spot price showed a certain rebound. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts first declined and then rebounded [4]. 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 Strong Expectation of New - Season Corn Yield Increase in the US - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated that the US corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 95.2 million acres, with a yield per acre of 181 bushels and a total output of 15.705 billion bushels. The year - end carry - over inventory is 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the previous year but lower than last month's estimate. The expansion of the planting area provides a large margin of safety for supply, and the current trend of yield per acre is in a good state, with favorable weather outlook, resulting in significant pressure for a bumper harvest [6]. 2.2 Steady - to - Increasing Future Yields in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's July estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 was 132 million tons, with exports of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 91 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Argentina's output in 2024/25 was 50 million tons, and in 2025/26, it is predicted to be 53 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The predicted output for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly, but this prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [9]. 2.3 Expected Recovery and Increase in New - Season Corn Yield in Ukraine - The USDA estimates that Ukraine's corn output in 2025/26 will be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons (13.8%) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a slight increase in area and recovery of yield per acre. The final year - end carry - over inventory is 60,000 tons, recovering from the previous year. Since June, precipitation in major producing areas has been low, and the NDVI index has been slightly lower, so future weather changes need to be monitored [11]. 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Planting Area and Steady - to - Increasing Production - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates that China's corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), an increase of 132 thousand hectares (1.98 million mu) or 0.3% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), and the total output will be 296.16 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. Overall, domestic corn production is expected to increase slightly. Since sowing, the climate suitability for corn has been generally good, but since July, precipitation has been low in the core producing areas in the Northeast and the Huang - Huai region, and drought pressure has emerged in some areas, so the impact of weather on yield per acre needs to be monitored [16]. 3.2 Decrease in Direct Corn Imports and Sinograin's Imported Corn Auction as an Important Supplement - China's corn imports have remained at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 2024/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.68 million tons, a significant decrease compared to 21.63 million tons in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that imports will increase in the second half of 2025, but the arrival may be after September. Since July 1st, Sinograin has started the auction of reserve imported corn, with a total turnover of less than 1 million tons, and the future supply is uncertain [18][20]. 3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output - In the first half of 2025, the total output of industrial feed in China was 158.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased, while that of concentrated feed decreased. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding scales is expected to support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [23]. 3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - Due to weak macro - economic growth and low consumer confidence, the consumption of downstream products of deep - processing enterprises has been sluggish, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of corn in the deep - processing sector. Since 2024/25, the corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises has decreased by about 4% compared to the previous year. In the corn starch production, which accounts for the largest proportion of corn consumption in the deep - processing sector, the consumption of corn starch has decreased significantly, leading to high inventory, poor processing profit, and low operating rate. It is expected that the deep - processing of corn starch will not improve significantly [24][27]. 3.5 Wheat Still Has an Advantage over Corn, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Auction of Feed Rice - Since March, wheat has shown an advantage in substituting for corn, and feed enterprises in North and Central China have adjusted their formulas. The import of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley has decreased significantly, and it is unlikely to increase suddenly in the future. However, the auction of aged rice is an uncertain factor [29].

Report Title - "Uptake Declines, Corn Stabilizes and Rebounds — Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Corn spot prices showed signs of stabilization last week, with the selling pace of grain holders slowing down, a significant reduction in the number of trucks arriving at the doorsteps of deep - processing enterprises in major producing areas, and more enterprises raising prices. Futures prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the basis weakened slightly. This week, the transaction rate of imported corn auctions decreased significantly, and the market also began to expect a slowdown in the auction pace, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. Looking ahead, domestic corn inventories and southern imported grain inventories have been declining continuously, indicating that the overall supply pressure is not large. Grain holders have largely digested the negative impact of imported corn auctions, and the market may re - enter a stage of low supply volume. On the demand side, feed production still maintains good growth, but due to poor breeding profits and the impact of wheat substitution, the replenishment demand for corn from feed enterprises is suppressed. Deep - processing profits continue to be in the red, the de - stocking of finished product inventories is slow, and the operating rate remains at a low level, providing insufficient support for corn demand. Overall, as the selling sentiment on the spot side stabilizes, the short - term bottom support for corn has strengthened, but due to insufficient demand - side stimulation, there is limited upside potential for corn prices. The recommended operation is to be bullish in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. International Corn Market Dynamics 1.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided [10] 1.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided [14] 1.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided [19] 1.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided [27] 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided [33] 2.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - Not provided [42] 2.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Price Differences - Not provided [48] 2.4 Corn Selling Progress - Not provided [54] 2.5 Corn Imports - Not provided [58] 2.6 Feed and Aquaculture Demand - Not provided [66] 2.7 Feed and Aquaculture Demand: Feed Production - Not provided [75] 2.8 Deep - processing Demand - Not provided [76] 2.9 Substitutes - Not provided [80] 2.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided [86] 2.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided [91] 2.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided [92] 3. Corn Starch Market Dynamics 3.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided [97] 3.2 Corn Starch Spot - A table shows data from July 7 to July 18, including prices such as 2700, 2760, 2790, etc. [107] 3.3 Corn - Starch Price Difference - Not provided [114] 3.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided [122] 3.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided [128] 3.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided [132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. With the continuous consumption of surplus grains and the decline in imports, a pattern of tight supply in the short - term has emerged. - Imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn has enhanced the substitution effect in the feed field, suppressing the upward momentum of corn prices. - Downstream procurement remains cautious. Livestock enterprises, restricted by low profits, mostly replenish stocks as needed, while deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. Overall, consumption has limited ability to boost prices. - From a technical perspective, the main corn futures contract is in an upward channel but is under pressure from the upper edge of the channel and has been testing support levels downward. Without a trend - driving force in supply and demand, the futures price is expected to gradually decline to the key integer level of 2,300 yuan/ton, which may trigger a technical rebound at that time [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Corn Market Structure - As of the end of June, the corn index price first rose and then fell. After reaching a low of 2,300 yuan/ton at the end of May, it rebounded, tested the previous high of 2,380 yuan/ton but failed to break through, and then declined again to test the support at 2,300 yuan/ton. It is expected to form a double - top structure. - The corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. The decreasing inventory in domestic main producing areas supports traders' reluctance to sell, but affected by the wheat substitution effect and policy - grain auctions, the price is oscillating downward. - Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in weak consumption. Livestock enterprises purchase as needed due to low profits, and corn deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. The main corn futures contract is in an upward channel, and in the short - term, it is retesting the support around 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - The overall term - structure shows that the September contract is at a discount to the January contract, and the January contract is at a discount to the May contract [8]. Market行情Analysis Supply Side - Global corn supply and demand tightened according to the June USDA report. The old - crop exports were increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending stocks were correspondingly reduced. For the new - crop, the ending stocks were also reduced by 50 million bushels. The new - crop ending stocks were lower than expected, and the report was slightly bullish. The expected 2025/2026 US corn production is 15.82 billion bushels, with a planted area of 95.3 million acres and a yield of 181 bushels per acre, remaining unchanged from May. The expected ending stocks are 1.75 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast and the Reuters average. Globally, the 2025/2026 production is increased to 1.266 billion tons, and the ending stocks are 275.236 million tons, which is also bullish [11]. - Tariff policies have tightened imports, which is beneficial to the confidence of the domestic corn market. Although the overall import of agricultural products from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import sources since 2018. The proportion of US - imported corn and wheat in China's total imports is less than 20%, so the impact of tariffs is relatively limited, but the impact on US - imported sorghum, which accounts for over 50%, may be relatively large. In 2025, China's corn imports have dropped significantly. From January to May, the cumulative import was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%. Importing US corn is not cost - effective [15][16]. - Corn is in a policy - sensitive period, and the expectation of imported corn auctions has been fulfilled. On July 1, imported corn was auctioned in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a transaction rate of 97%. On July 4, the second auction was held nationwide through public bidding, with a larger scale. The transaction rate was 85.95%. The imported corn supply has supplemented the market, but the future frequency, scale, and price of auctions will affect the market [21]. - The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn may lead to a decline in corn prices. Corn is in a supply vacuum period, and new wheat prices are at 1.21 - 1.23 yuan per catty. The wheat - corn price difference in Henan is - 40 yuan/ton and in Hebei is - 5 yuan/ton. Wheat is more cost - effective, so many enterprises are using wheat to replace corn in the feed field [22]. Demand Side - The reduction of pig production capacity is slow. As of May 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 3.6% higher than the normal level. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan per head. The pig market may face double pressure from cost and supply. Although there is a rigid demand for feed, there is little room for growth [23]. - Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss situation, which limits the demand for corn. Due to weak macroeconomic growth and poor downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing enterprises is not good. As of July 5, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 51.57%, the corn processing volume was 789,000 tons, and the processing profit was - 62.97 yuan per ton. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing [37]. Market Outlook The current situation of the corn market is as described in the core viewpoints, with a tight supply pattern in the short - term, supplemented by imported corn auctions, and a limited ability of consumption to boost prices. The futures price is expected to decline to 2,300 yuan/ton and may rebound technically [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, corn prices showed a volatile trend. The USDA supply - demand report in June had a limited impact on US corn, being neutral, while the planting area report significantly increased the planned planting area of US corn. Combined with the fast sowing speed of the new - season US corn and favorable weather in the production areas, the price of US corn was under pressure and trended weakly. In China, the continuous wheat harvest in June led to low wheat prices, triggering the state - reserve minimum purchase price, and many local reserves started to enter the market to buy wheat, supporting the wheat price. Corn was in the off - season period, with fewer shipments from traders, low vehicle arrivals at Shandong processing enterprises, and firm spot prices in Northeast China [6]. - In terms of demand, feed enterprises had relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of breeding demand restricted restocking, so feed enterprises purchased as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry was entering the off - season, with low processing profits [6]. - Strategy: US corn will continue to decline to find the bottom. The entry of reserves into the market to buy wheat supports the firm wheat price. In the short term, the shipments of domestic corn traders are gradually decreasing, but the market is worried about the state - reserve corn selling, so the short - term corn price may fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, as grain sources are gradually transferred to channels, channel dealers hold back supplies, port inventories continue to be consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, supporting the bullish expectation for corn. However, domestic corn will still face the situation of traders selling in the later period, and it is expected that the corn price will decline from its high at the end of the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - As of June 30, CBOT07 corn closed at 409.00 cents per bushel, down 14.00 points from the previous month's close, a monthly decline of 3.31%. C2509 corn closed at 2,378 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, a monthly increase of 0.81% [11]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Balance Sheet - US Corn - In the 2024/25 season, US corn exports increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion bushels. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased by 50 million bushels to 17.21 billion bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels [12][13]. 3.2.2. Foreign - US Corn Growth - As of the week ending June 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72%, 72% in the previous week, and 69% in the same period last year. The emergence rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, 96% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 98%. The silking rate was 4%, the same as in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 3%. As of the week ending June 24, about 16% of the US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 6% in the same period last year [16]. 3.2.3. Foreign - US Corn Exports - As of the week ending June 19, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 741,000 tons, down from 904,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of corn in the 2025/2026 season were 306,000 tons, up from 155,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales of US corn this season reached 54.7585 million tons, accounting for 81.35% of the June USDA report's estimate [19]. 3.2.4. Domestic Supply - Imported Corn - In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn and corn flour, a year - on - year decrease of 81.6%. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of corn and corn flour were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93.7% [24]. 3.2.5. Domestic Demand - Feed Enterprises - With the low - running pig price, pig farming was near the break - even point, and downstream feed was purchased as needed. As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, down 0.48 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [27]. 3.2.6. Domestic Demand - Corn Starch Processing Enterprises - Recently, both enterprises that completed maintenance and those with new maintenance were observed. The regional operating rates of corn starch showed different trends, and the overall industry operating rate declined slightly. As of June 27, the corn processing volume of starch enterprises in June was 2.182 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 825,000 tons (27.44%) and a year - on - year decrease of 289,000 tons (11.70%) [30]. 3.2.7. Domestic Demand - Processing Enterprises' Inventory - As of June 25, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 4.567 million tons, a decrease of 0.54% [32]. 3.2.8. Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.804 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,000 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports in that week was 338,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic - trade corn inventory was 1.133 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 3,000 tons, the same as the previous week; the imported sorghum was 468,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons from the previous week; and the imported barley was 293,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week [36]. 3.3. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market is expected to be loose as major producers' output is likely to increase, and global corn prices will likely maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [2][35] - In the domestic market, before the new crop is launched, the supply - demand situation of corn is generally tight, but considering imports, substitutes, and policy - sourced grains, the overall energy raw material supply is sufficient. After the new corn is launched in the fourth quarter, the corn market may face pressure [2][35] - In the third quarter, the general idea is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the new crop's launch. If the output is good, a bearish view is advisable [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, domestic corn prices rose from a low level. Futures prices rose less than spot prices due to the previous premium. The spot price at Jinzhou Port increased from around 2,050 yuan in early January to around 2,380 yuan. Dalian corn futures led the increase, but the upward trend slowed down in the second quarter with several adjustments [4] 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 US Corn Supply Expected to Increase Significantly - The USDA's May report estimated that the 2025/26 corn planting area in the US will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre and a total output of 15.8 billion bushels. Supply is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year, and consumption will increase steadily, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks [6] 2.2 South American G2 Output Resumes Growth and Exports Are Expected to Increase - In 2024/25, Brazil's corn output is estimated to be 130 million tons, and Argentina's is 50 million tons. For 2025/26, Brazil's output is expected to be 131 million tons, and Argentina's is 53 million tons. Brazil and Argentina's exports are likely to increase in the coming months with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn [9] 2.3 Ukraine's Supply Capacity Expected to Recover - Ukraine's 2025/26 corn output is estimated to be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. Exports will recover to 24 million tons, and ending stocks will be 597,000 tons [11] 2.4 Regions Outside China to See Slightly Looser Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the corn output of regions outside China will be 970 million tons, an increase of about 42 million tons from 2024/25. Exports are expected to be 195 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons from the previous year, and ending stocks will reach 9.407 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons [15] 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 2025/26 Output to Increase Slightly - The 2025/26 domestic corn output is expected to be 296 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year. The total planting area will remain stable with a slight increase, ensuring domestic supply [16] 3.2 Imports: Later Imports to Increase - In 2024/25, the cumulative corn imports were 1.52 million tons, a decrease of about 19.2 million tons from the previous year. The theoretical import profit has expanded, and with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn, later imports are expected to increase significantly [20] 3.3 Demand: Expanding Breeding Scale and Increasing Feed Consumption - From January to May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 130.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding industries will support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [25] 3.4 Deep - processing: Weak Economic Situation and Decreasing Deep - processing Demand - Due to the weak macro - economic situation, the consumption of deep - processed corn products has declined. The corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by about 4% year - on - year. Corn starch deep - processing is not expected to improve significantly [28][30] 3.5 Substitutes: Domestic Raw Materials Key to Filling the Energy Raw Material Gap - Wheat has a substitution advantage over corn in North China, but large - scale substitution has not occurred in the South. The impact of imported substitutes on domestic corn is weakening. The auctions of aged rice and imported corn are uncertain factors [32] 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market is expected to be loose, and domestic corn supply will be tight before the new crop is launched. After the new crop is launched in the fourth quarter, the market may face pressure. In the third quarter, buy on dips; in the fourth quarter, be bearish if the output is good [35]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's corn prices are under pressure due to high yield expectations and financial stress on farmers, with export pace being a key variable influencing future price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Financial Pressure - Optimistic yield expectations for Brazil's second-season corn in 2025 are projected to exceed 96 million tons, driven by favorable weather conditions [2]. - Farmers are facing dual financial challenges, leading to an inclination to sell corn early to cover costs, as they anticipate rising soybean prices [2]. - The large area planted with corn and limited storage capacity are contributing to increased selling pressure, with significant sales expected unless prices fall below break-even levels [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - Domestic demand is transitioning between summer crops and second-season crops, with stable feed and ethanol consumption insufficient to absorb the supply pressure of over 90 million tons [3]. - An estimated export volume of over 40 million tons is necessary for supply-demand balance, with USDA predicting a corn production of 131 million tons and exports of 43 million tons for the 2025/26 season [3]. - Current corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade have not shown significant increases, and export prices are hovering between 67 to 71 Brazilian Reais per bag, indicating a wait-and-see approach in the market [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations and Risks - Analysts expect a significant acceleration in port collection rhythm starting in July, with potential international market disruptions possibly benefiting Brazilian corn exports [4]. - The Brazilian corn market faces risks from increased domestic supply and logistical issues that could impact production and pricing [4]. - Farmers are advised to monitor climate changes, exchange rate fluctuations, and global market demand to adjust their sales strategies accordingly [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish bias in a volatile market for corn investment [1][27][28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the sown area of corn in major producing countries has increased compared to the previous year, with a particularly notable increase in US production. If the projected yields are realized, the global corn market will remain relatively宽松. Domestically, the supply of corn is tight, but factors such as the low price difference between wheat and corn, old rice auctions, and expectations of relaxed imports will cap the upside potential of corn prices. Overall, the later supply of the corn market is tightening, and there is strong support at the lower end [1][27][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since May, domestic corn spot prices have trended slightly higher in a volatile manner, while futures prices have declined. The basis has strengthened significantly, and the main futures contract C2507 has shifted from a premium to parity with the spot price. The firmness of prices at northern ports is due to the increasing willingness of grain - holding entities to hold prices. The approach of the new wheat harvest, the low price difference between wheat and corn, and the adjustment of feed formulas by some enterprises have led to doubts about the continued tightness of the corn market. The withdrawal of long - position funds is the key reason for the futures decline [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Significantly Increased Planting Area of New - Season Corn in the US - The USDA's May supply - demand report estimates that the planting area of US corn in 2025/26 will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre, a total output of 15.82 billion bushels, feed demand of 5.9 billion bushels, food and processing demand of 6.885 billion bushels, exports of 2.675 billion bushels, and an ending inventory of 1.8 billion bushels. Due to the low price and poor planting profits of soybeans in 2024/25, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations, US farmers are more inclined to plant corn, resulting in a significant increase in the sown area compared to the previous year [5] 3.2.2 Steady to Slight Increase in Future Output Expected in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's May estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 is 130 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 9% increase from the previous year's actual output. The increase is mainly due to a 3% increase in yield, thanks to sufficient rainfall in April. The output in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, consumption is expected to be 93 million tons, exports will be 43 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 2.58 million tons. In Argentina, the output in 25/26 is estimated to be 53 million tons, exports will be 37 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 2.788 million tons. Currently, the new - season output in South America is expected to increase slightly, but the forecast has limited reference value as the new - season planting is still far off [8] 3.2.3 Restorative Increase in New - Season Output Expected in Ukraine - According to the USDA's estimate, Ukraine's corn output in 25/26 is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, a 13.8% increase from 26.8 million tons in the previous year. The increase is mainly due to a slight increase in area and yield recovery. The ending inventory will be 600,000 tons, recovering from the previous year [10] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Area and Stable to Slight Increase in Production - According to the estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the planting area of Chinese corn in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), a 0.3% increase from the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), a stable to slight increase from the previous year. The total output will be 296.16 million tons, a 0.4% increase. Overall, domestic corn production in 25/26 is expected to increase slightly. In terms of weather, the overall precipitation in the Northeast is relatively high, which has affected the sowing progress, and the spring sowing is expected to be about one week later than last year [13] 3.3.2 Reduced Impact of Imported Corn and Energy Raw Materials on the Domestic Corn Market - China's corn imports have remained at a "very low" level for several consecutive months. In the 24/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.33 million tons, a significant decrease from 19.66 million tons in the same period of the previous year. There is little import from the US for 9 consecutive months, and imports from Brazil have also significantly decreased. This is due to both the narrowing import profit and policy - controlled import volume. According to this import pace, the annual corn imports in 24/25 will be reduced by more than 10 million tons compared to the previous year. The imported energy raw materials, including sorghum, barley, wheat, and broken rice, are just over 10 million tons, about half of that in the same period of the previous year. The significant reduction in imported corn and grains will significantly reduce the supply shock in the domestic market and leave more market space for domestic corn [15] 3.3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output Compared to the Previous Year - According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the inventory of breeding sows in China began to rise in the second quarter of 2024, reached a peak in the fourth quarter, and then declined. In 2025, the pig inventory will generally show an increasing trend, but the expansion slope of this cycle is relatively gentle compared to previous cycles. In the poultry industry, laying hens have been profitable for 4 consecutive years, and the production scale is entering an expansion cycle, while the production of meat poultry is relatively stable. Overall, the feed consumption of poultry is expected to increase. For ruminant feed, the cattle - raising industry suffered heavy losses last year, and the consumption of ruminant feed is expected to remain at a low level this year. In general, the production and sales of feed this year are expected to increase compared to the previous year. In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, a 4.2% increase from the previous month and a 9.0% increase from the same period of the previous year, with a significant year - on - year increase for 4 consecutive months [17] 3.3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - In the deep - processing industry, due to weak macro - economic growth and general downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing is poor. In the future, the Sino - US tariff confrontation and the severe foreign trade situation will continue to put pressure on the product sales of deep - processing enterprises, meaning that there is limited room for significant improvement in the profit of deep - processing enterprises, which may limit corn consumption. From 24/25 to date, the corn consumption of sample enterprises is roughly the same as the previous year, and the corn consumption of corn alcohol enterprises has decreased significantly, reflecting the weak growth of deep - processing demand. It is expected that the deep - processing demand for corn in 24/25 will be the same as or slightly less than the previous year [20] 3.3.5 Increased Substitution of Wheat for Corn, but Large - Scale Substitution is Not Expected - Since April, as the corn price has risen, the price difference between wheat and corn has significantly decreased. After May, the price difference rebounded slightly, but wheat still shows a strong cost - performance advantage over corn. Currently, the substitution of wheat for corn mainly occurs in major wheat - producing areas such as Henan and Shandong, and has not spread to Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong. Whether it will expand further remains to be observed. As the domestic wheat harvest progresses, the output, quality, and price of new - season wheat have become the focus of the market, which also has a significant impact on the future trend of the corn market. This year, many wheat - producing areas have experienced drought, but the scope of yield reduction in major wheat - producing areas in North China is limited. However, whether the dry - hot wind will cause further yield reduction needs further tracking. In late May, heavy rain in most parts of Henan may lead to a sudden change from drought to flood, and there is a possibility of sprouted wheat during the harvest period. In terms of policy, the State Food and Strategic Reserves Administration has taken active measures to keep grain prices at a reasonable level. Considering the early layout of summer grain purchases by the government this year and the fact that the rotation prices in some areas are higher than the minimum purchase price, it is expected that the domestic wheat price will not drop significantly. Therefore, it is initially expected that the large - scale substitution of wheat for corn is unlikely [25]