美国能源部长：对伊朗的石油制裁仍然有效。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - If Iran returns to the negotiation table and reaches an agreement with the US, the ceiling for Iranian oil exports will be lifted again. Production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day within six months, and exports may increase to 2.5 million barrels per day, which is a significant negative for the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 32 cents to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 5 cents to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.46% at 498 yuan per barrel [1] - US oil executives won Trump's support in efforts to abolish European environmental regulations. US oil giants and their lobbyists urged Trump and his cabinet members to use ongoing trade negotiations with the EU to push for the cancellation of two major climate laws in the European Green Deal [1] - The US goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports posting the largest decline since the pandemic began and imports barely changing. The goods trade deficit increased 11.1% to $96.6 billion, higher than market expectations [1] - The Trump administration has discussed potentially helping Iran obtain up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear energy projects, relaxing sanctions, and unfreezing billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds as part of efforts to bring Tehran back to the negotiation table [1] - Israel estimates that the 12-day war with Iran caused losses of 10 billion shekels (about $3 billion), and the total losses may climb significantly after the evaluation is completed. The Bank of Israel expects the economic growth rate this year to be 3.5%, but this figure may be affected by the recent war [1] Investment Logic - Next week, the US and Iran will hold negotiations. If Iran gives up uranium enrichment activities, the US will consider relaxing Iranian oil sanctions. If an agreement is reached, it will be a major negative for the oil market [2] Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: US lifting of Iranian oil sanctions, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1 - Israeli military destroyed a building in southern Lebanon, linked to a Hezbollah member who was killed by an Israeli drone a week prior [3] - The building was reportedly used by Hezbollah to observe Israeli forces [3] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may relax sanctions on Iranian oil, while maintaining the maximum pressure policy [5][7] - Trump mentioned that the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks next week, with a potential agreement in sight [7] - The core U.S. demand remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons [7] Group 3 - Russian defense ministry reported intercepting and shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in various regions, including 23 in Kursk and 11 in Rostov [8] - Russian air force reportedly dropped bombs on Ukrainian positions in Dnipro region, although the specific date of the video release is unclear [8] - Ukrainian air force reported shooting down 24 drones since the evening of the previous day [10]

Kpler：伊朗石油产量将下降，受美国制裁而非地区紧张局势驱动 金十数据6月13日讯，Kpler分析师Homayoun Falakshahi表示，伊朗的石油产量预计将开始下降，但原因 是美国加大制裁力度，而不是与以色列的紧张关系升级。Kpler预计未来几周伊朗的石油产量将减少35 万桶/日。相比之下，此前的预测是每天减少50万桶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [4] Core View - The impact of sanctions on sensitive oil is weak, and the supply of sensitive oil is unlikely to be interrupted unless Sino-US relations significantly improve. The core issue is when and to what extent Saudi Arabia will increase production [3] Market News and Key Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's July light crude oil futures rose 95 cents to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; July Brent crude oil futures rose 81 cents to $64.90 per barrel, a 1.26% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.84% to 457 yuan per barrel [2] - OPEC+ has agreed to use 2025's oil production level as the baseline for 2027. It will authorize the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum sustainable production capacity. The next JMMC meeting is on November 30. On Saturday, 8 OPEC+ members may agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [2] - In the week ending May 23, US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.236 million barrels, API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 342,000 barrels, API gasoline inventory decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - As of the week ending May 26, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased by 13% to 17.894 million barrels, a four-month low [2] - Asian refiners expect Saudi Arabia to cut the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in July to a six-month low [2] - As of the week ending May 24, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 41,602 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 40,289 kiloliters, kerosene inventory increased by 71,204 kiloliters, and diesel inventory decreased by 97,562 kiloliters. The refinery's operable capacity utilization rate was 79.70% [2] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to increase sanctions on Iran and Russia led to an oil price rebound, but the impact of sanctions on sensitive oil is weak. Unless Sino-US relations improve, the supply of sensitive oil is unlikely to be interrupted. OPEC is expected to accelerate production in July, and the key is Saudi Arabia's production increase [3] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [4] Risks - Downside risks: Reaching of the Iran nuclear deal, macro black swan events [5] - Upside risks: Tightening of supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is implementing sanctions on companies importing Iranian oil to exert pressure on Iran's economy [1] Group 1: Sanctions Impact - The sanctions aim to limit Iran's oil revenue, which is crucial for its economy [1] - Companies involved in importing Iranian oil will face financial penalties and restrictions [1] Group 2: Industry Response - The oil industry may experience increased volatility due to these sanctions [1] - Companies may need to reassess their supply chains and sourcing strategies in light of the new sanctions [1]

布伦特原油日内涨幅达2.00%，现报62.24美元/桶。此前美国总统特朗普警告称，必须立即停止购买伊 朗的石油产品，否则将受到制裁。 ...

Group 1 - WTI crude oil increased by 2.0%, reaching $59.42 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil also rose by 2.0%, reaching $62.32 per barrel [1] - President Trump announced that all purchases of Iranian oil must stop immediately [1] Group 2 - Buyers of Iranian oil will face secondary sanctions [1] - Any amount of Iranian oil purchased will result in sanctions [1]

最后，在2025年初，NYANTARA号从 SALVIA（IMO 9569700） 号上接收了数十万桶伊朗 石油，该船于2024年10月11日被制裁。 此外，RANI号也从被制裁的NITC油轮DERYA （IMO 9569700）接收了数十万桶伊朗石油，并在2025年初将这些石油交付给中国。 OFAC根据第13902号行政令对 位于中国 山东的炼油厂实施 ，因其购买了超过十亿美元的伊 朗原油，包括从伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队-Qods部队（IRGC-QF）的代理公司购买的原油。 OFAC还对几家公司和船只实施了额外制裁，这些公司和船只在中国为伊朗的"暗影舰队"原油 运输中提供了帮助。 在2020年3月至2023年1月期间，该实体汇出了超过8亿美元的电汇。COPC是伊朗革命卫 队-QF的一个傀儡公司，帮助向中国出售伊朗石油。COPC通过美国金融系统清洗了数十亿美 元以支持伊朗革命卫队-QF，其中1.08亿美元被 美国司法部 冻结。 伊朗依赖于不透明的所有权和船舶管理公司网络，管理一支影子油轮队，通过船对船的转移 来混淆伊朗向中国运送石油的货物流。 RESTON (IMO 9265744)，以及 巴拿马国旗的 BESTL ...

美国国务院根据第13846号行政令对 从事伊朗石油贸易的四个实体实施制裁，其中涉及中国舟山的一个 实体。该码头在2021年至2025年之间至少收购了伊朗原油，包括美国批准的船只，相当于至少进口1300 万桶伊朗原油。 继续针对伊朗的幽灵舰队 国务院继续指定船舶管理公司及其油轮，因为他们故意从伊朗从事石油和石化产品的运输。这些船只管 理公司及其关联的油轮共同运送了数百万桶的伊朗原油和石油产品，其中绝大多数货物都交付给了中国 的买家。此外，这些船只通常从事"黑暗活动"，其自动识别系统（AIS）位置和标识信标会关闭。这种行 为旨在掩盖船舶货物的伊朗起源，是对其他船只的直接和不必要的风险，因为AIS是用于避免船舶碰撞的 关键系统。 ...