格隆汇1月6日｜由于全球供应充足以及委内瑞拉局势的不确定性，油价出现下跌。荷兰国际集团分析师 指出："周末的事态发展在短期内给委内瑞拉的石油供应带来了进一步的下行风险，但也为长期增长留 下了潜力。"分析师补充道，"这需要对该国能源行业进行大量投资，而除非投资环境变得更具吸引力， 或投资者能获得某种形式的保障，否则外国公司可能不愿承担这些投资。"与此同时，全球最大的石油 出口国沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调了销往亚洲的旗舰产品——阿拉伯轻质原油的价格。 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【1月6日花旗：委内瑞拉石油供应或持续中断，利好油市】花旗认为，在美国政府与委内瑞拉现任或未 来领导层达成协议前，委石油供应很可能持续中断，这对市场是利好因素。该行预期，双方最终可能达 成协议，但耗时或达数月甚至更久，且局势可能在缓和前升级。整体而言，该行估计石油供应风险仍 高，未来几周足以支撑布伦特原油价格维持在每桶60美元水平。 ...

期货研究报告|石油沥青专题 2026-01-04 委内瑞拉局势升级，原料端风险发酵 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 随着时间进入四季度左右，美国对委内瑞拉的对抗措施从经济拓展到军事层面，并开 始扣压委内瑞拉油轮。元旦期间，美国发动一轮空袭，并控制委内瑞拉现任总统马杜 罗，南美局势进一步升级。在此背景下，委内瑞拉原油对亚洲发货量近期出现大幅下 滑，非美地区的买家面临风险骤增。 国内方面，在供应压力边际缓和、现货端开始企稳的背景下，沥青盘面底部信号逐步 夯实。但现实基本面依然相对疲软，缺乏主动性。市场潜在的上行驱动来自于原料 端，如果未来委油供应持续性收紧，导致沥青炼厂成本中枢抬升，则沥青现货与盘面 存在进一步的反弹空间。 ■ 策略 单边：谨慎偏多，关注逢低多 BU 主力合约机会，不宜追涨 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低正套机会（BU2603-BU2606） 期现：无 期权：无 ■ 风险 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 原油价格波动、宏观风险、原料端问题证伪、炼厂端 ...

Core Insights - Oil prices increased following the U.S. decision to impose greater economic pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments [1] - The U.S. conducted airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria at the request of the Nigerian government, which may have implications for regional stability and oil supply [1] Oil Industry Impact - The U.S. actions are likely to affect Venezuelan oil exports, which could lead to tighter global oil supply and potentially higher prices [1] - Increased military activity in regions with oil production, such as Nigeria, may disrupt operations and influence market perceptions of risk associated with oil supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Market expectations suggest a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which may pave the way for the West to lift sanctions on Russian oil suppliers [1] Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - Any ceasefire agreement is expected to reduce supply risks associated with U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers, specifically Rosneft and Lukoil [1] - Following a ceasefire, Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to decline relatively quickly to $60 per barrel [1] Group 2: Effects on Refining Activities - A ceasefire would normalize operations at Russian refineries, as drone attacks from Ukraine would cease [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The outcome of the Sino-US talks met market expectations, had no significant impact on oil prices, and did not reach a comprehensive trade agreement. It only reached agreements on issues such as fentanyl, tariff extensions, and soybean purchases, without addressing core issues like Russian oil procurement and US crude oil procurement, thus having limited impact on oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9 cents to $60.57 per barrel, a 0.15% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 8 cents to $65.00 per barrel, a 0.12% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.24% at 461 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit in the third quarter widened to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.6 billion), a 160% increase from the previous quarter. Oil revenue decreased by 0.1% to 150.8 billion riyals due to OPEC's phased removal of production cuts. Total revenue decreased by about 13% year-on-year to 269.9 billion riyals, with 119.1 billion riyals from non-oil industries. Public spending increased by 6% year-on-year to 358.4 billion riyals [1] - Russia's second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, agreed to sell most of its international assets to Swiss commodity trader Gunvor after being sanctioned by the US. The transaction will cover most of Lukoil's overseas operations with about 15,000 employees [1] - Ukrainian security officials said that Ukraine attacked two oil storage facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea [1] - ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply. The bank raised its 0 - 3 month crude oil price target to $70 per barrel [1] - India's HMEL company has suspended further purchases of Russian crude oil [1] Investment Logic - The previous day's meeting between the two heads of state basically met market expectations, had no unexpected surprises, did not reach a comprehensive trade agreement, and had limited impact on oil prices [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short position should be considered [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices in China, highlighting a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices, and the implications for consumers and logistics companies [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and 125 yuan per ton for diesel, effective from July 15, 2025 [1]. - This marks the sixth price adjustment in 2025, resulting in a total decrease of 225 yuan for gasoline and 215 yuan for diesel compared to the end of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For private car owners, filling a 50-liter tank will cost approximately 5 yuan less after the price adjustment [2]. - For large logistics vehicles, the fuel cost will decrease by about 4.4 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the expected increase in production from OPEC+, potential supply risks remain due to geopolitical tensions and new sanctions against Russia, which could support oil prices [2]. - The demand outlook is mixed, with ongoing summer travel in the U.S. potentially boosting fuel demand, but overall sentiment remains pessimistic regarding demand recovery [2][3]. Group 4: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [3]. - The annual report from OPEC projects global oil demand to reach an average of 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024, increasing to 123 million barrels per day by 2050, indicating a growth trend [3][4]. Group 5: Contrasting Forecasts - OPEC Secretary-General highlighted that the growth in oil demand is driven by economic expansion, population growth, and urbanization, with no signs of peak oil demand in the short term [4]. - This outlook contrasts with the International Energy Agency's prediction of a decline in global oil demand post-2030, primarily due to the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy [4].

Group 1 - Iran's National Oil Company stated that the recent Israeli airstrikes did not damage any of its refining or oil storage facilities, and operations and fuel supply remain stable [1] - Following the airstrikes, oil prices surged by 13% in a single day, marking the largest daily increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022 [3] - Analysts from ING indicated that if Iran's midstream and upstream assets are targeted, up to 1.7 million barrels per day of export supply could be at risk, potentially shifting the oil market from surplus to deficit in the second half of the year [3] Group 2 - Commodity strategist Warren Patterson suggested that Brent crude prices could rise to $80 per barrel if tensions escalate, although prices may stabilize around $75 [3] - In a worst-case scenario, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 14 million barrels of oil supply could be at risk, which could push prices to $120 per barrel [3] - Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, noted that if Middle Eastern tensions escalate, oil prices could spike to $80, but increased OPEC+ production might limit this rise and lead to concerns about oversupply in the fall [3]

Core Viewpoint - If supply risks materialize due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices could surge to $80 per barrel, although increased OPEC+ production may limit this rise and reignite concerns of oversupply in the fall [1] Group 1: Supply Risks - The worst-case scenario, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a disruption of Iran's oil exports of 2.1 million barrels per day, could severely impact global oil supply and inflation expectations [1]

Group 1 - The Libyan Attorney General has ordered the detention of three individuals involved in the May 28 attack on the headquarters of the National Oil Corporation [1] - Prior to the issuance of the detention order, the eastern Libyan authorities threatened to shut down oil production within their controlled areas [1]