Core Viewpoints - The necessity to enhance domestic demand policies to counteract the potential impacts of slowing external demand, thereby solidifying the recovery of domestic demand since the first quarter [1][4] - The market consensus on a clear mainline for policy response is still awaited, indicating that the timing for a more aggressive market approach is not yet ripe [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [2][4] - Retail sales grew by 4.6%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, and per capita disposable income rose to 12,179 yuan, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.5% [2] Trade and External Factors - The trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to the nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter [4] - A decline in container bookings to the U.S. by 67% in the first week of April indicates potential headwinds for exports in the second quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Recommendations to maintain a defensive investment strategy in light of ongoing global uncertainties, with a focus on safe assets such as gold and government bonds [5][21] - Emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand and those that have been undervalued due to market sentiment, particularly in the context of "China Special Valuation" and "Science and Technology Valuation" [6][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a need for further observation of policy impacts before a clear bullish trend can be established [7][19] - The potential for a gradual decrease in funding rates as macroeconomic stimulus measures are anticipated to be implemented [17]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the Chinese technology industry is injecting stability into global assets, transitioning from "point breakthroughs" to "system evolution" in its innovation system, which is crucial for transforming into an innovation-driven economy [1][18] - The capital market is expected to continuously provide stable liquidity support for the technology industry, with "KOT estimates" likely to inject further stability into the revaluation of China's economic transformation [1][19] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the investment value of technology bonds, noting that despite increased trading sentiment, the market's growth rate is more significant, indicating ample trading space for technology bonds [3] - Technology bonds generally have a credit spread slightly higher than ordinary credit bonds of the same rating, with a notable advantage in the 3-5 year maturity range, suggesting a larger capital gain potential compared to ordinary credit bonds [3] - The valuation yield of technology bonds predominantly falls within the 2%-2.5% range, with longer maturities showing a significant upward trend, making them attractive for investors seeking stable returns [3] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for revaluation in various industries, particularly in high-tech, consumer, and emerging service sectors, suggesting that investors should explore valuation discrepancies in technology bonds from an industry perspective [5] - The computer industry is highlighted as a significant area for growth, driven by policy support and the emergence of a trillion-dollar market, indicating a multi-dimensional value opportunity [6] Environmental Industry - The report discusses the renewable energy subsidy projects released by the State Grid, focusing on the importance of stable operations and self-control in the environmental sector [7] - It suggests that defensive assets driven by domestic demand, such as solid waste and water services, are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and dividend increases [7] Company-Specific Analysis - The report provides a detailed analysis of Zhongwei Co., predicting a net profit of 18.6 billion yuan for 2025, with a target price of 44 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - For Qianhe Flavor Industry, the report adjusts revenue expectations downward due to strategic adjustments but anticipates profit growth driven by cost advantages [9] - China XD Electric is projected to achieve a net profit of 17.0 billion yuan by 2025, with a "buy" rating maintained due to strong performance in its transformer and switch businesses [11]