Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with a series of measures aimed at enhancing people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and boosting economic momentum, as highlighted in the recent Central Political Bureau meeting [1][7]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Meanwhile, expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [1][3]. - Local general public budget revenue was 669.77 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting growth [1][2]. Investment and Consumption Promotion - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 7.88 trillion yuan issued in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 35.28%. Special bonds for consumption support have also been issued, with 690 billion yuan allocated for consumption upgrades [4][6]. - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has led to significant sales in various sectors, with total sales reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [5][6]. Social Welfare and Local Government Support - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments, with a total of 103.415 billion yuan allocated, reflecting an 8.4% increase year-on-year. This aims to enhance local financial capacity and support basic livelihood guarantees [7][8]. - New policies for early childhood education and direct cash subsidies for families with young children are set to benefit millions, with an estimated increase in national fiscal expenditure of around 200 billion yuan [6][7]. Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support, with a focus on maintaining spending strength to promote consumption and investment, thereby stabilizing and developing the macro economy [7][8].

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The meeting highlights the importance of accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to lower overall financing costs [1] - The focus for the second half of the year includes addressing key areas such as "bottleneck" technologies and promoting domestic demand growth under the "dual circulation" strategy [2][4] Group 2 - The meeting introduces the concept of "effective, orderly, and powerful" clearing of local financing platforms, with a timeline set for completion by June 2027 [2] - The number of local financing platforms has significantly decreased from over 15,000 to around 3,000, indicating a clear progress in the clearing process [2] - Future efforts will focus on increasing the speed and intensity of clearing, while ensuring that the process is orderly and does not lead to a resurgence of past issues [3] Group 3 - The economic growth in the first half of the year is attributed to several factors, including active fiscal policies, effective management of local government debt, and a series of industrial policies that have spurred productivity [4] - The narrowing gap in the urban-rural structure and between different regions is also noted, with significant investment opportunities in rural infrastructure and healthcare [4] - Financial support is needed in three key areas: market-oriented interest rates, loan securitization, and asset securitization, particularly in the real estate sector [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A series of policies have been introduced across various sectors, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies, aiming to promote economic stability, adjust industry structures, and manage international trade relationships [1][2][3] - The focus is on implementing existing policies, with an emphasis on policy continuity and stability, while also promoting new initiatives to support emerging industries and address social issues such as population growth [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Tone - A package of parenting subsidies and fertility support measures have been introduced. From 2025, a parenting subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year will be provided until the child is 3 years old. Free preschool education for the last year in public kindergartens will start in the fall of 2025, benefiting about 12 million people this fall and increasing government expenditure by about 20 billion yuan [11][16] - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, mainly focusing on implementing existing fiscal and monetary policies. The "moderately loose" monetary policy tone continues [12] - The list of "two - major" construction projects has been fully released. The third batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October. New policy - based financial instruments are to be established and launched soon [13] 2. Fiscal Policy - Use a more proactive fiscal policy, establish a debt - service reserve fund system to prevent risks, and accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds [17] - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. Natural persons with a monthly quota of no more than 1 million yuan will enjoy a VAT exemption until the end of 2027 [18] - The Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability, and some provinces have exited the high - risk area list [18][19] 3. Monetary Policy - Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, coordinate treasury management and national debt issuance and redemption with the fiscal department [21] - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a document to support the improvement of science and technology finance efficiency, and support the cultivation of emerging industries and forward - looking layout of future industries [22] - In August, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was operated earlier, and a second 6 - month operation may occur in the middle of the month, reflecting the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [23] 4. Financial Supervision - The maximum预定 interest rate of insurance products has been lowered. Ordinary insurance products decreased by 50BP to 2.0%, dividend - type insurance products decreased by 25BP to 1.75%, and universal insurance products decreased by 50BP to 1.0% [25] - The second batch of 12 new floating - rate funds have been approved, with the fee level linked to product returns [26] - Guotai Junan Asset Management initiated the absorption and merger of Haitong Asset Management [26] 5. Real Estate Policy - Coordinate to resolve real - estate enterprise bond default risks, improve real - estate financial macro - prudential management, and support the construction of a new real - estate development model [29] - Harbin increased the housing provident fund loan limit for "trade - in" home - buying families; Beijing strengthened support for multi - child families' housing; Kunming optimized the provident fund withdrawal policy [30] - Shanghai accelerated the "two - old and one - village" renovation, planning to start 25 village renovation projects this year. Some cities promoted the conversion of non - residential properties to rental housing [31][32] 6. Tariff Policy - The third round of Sino - US negotiations ended, and the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days, reducing export uncertainties [34] - Trump signed an executive order to set "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7 [35] - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors starting from August 1 and August 6 respectively [35]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a proactive approach to economic challenges [1] - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting positive trends in major economic indicators despite a complex external environment [1] - The meeting outlined the need for continuous and stable macro policies, with a focus on timely and flexible adjustments to support economic stability [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to create a conducive environment for economic recovery [2] - The monetary policy will maintain an appropriately loose stance in the second half of the year, aiming to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society [2] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [2] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, local governments issued new general and special bonds totaling 2.6 trillion yuan, with additional special bonds and long-term funding allocated to support economic stability [3] - The focus of fiscal policy will be on the issuance and utilization of government bonds, with an emphasis on accelerating government investment projects [3] - If economic performance meets expectations, fiscal policy will prioritize the effective implementation of existing policies and optimize budget allocations [3]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 60,877 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. After excluding special factors, the comparable growth was approximately 2.2% [1][2] - Tax revenue in the first quarter was 49,172 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. However, after accounting for special factors, tax revenue showed stable growth [1][2] - National general public budget expenditure increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security and employment (3.7%), education (2.5%), and urban-rural community spending (12.1%) [2][3] Group 2: Special Bonds and Government Investment - The Ministry of Finance plans to timely initiate the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds based on project allocation, ensuring alignment with project timelines and market demand [3][4] - The Ministry will guide local governments in optimizing the issuance rhythm of special bonds to enhance government investment effectiveness and support major project funding needs [3][4] - In 2024, the Ministry will adjust the focus of special bonds to include more areas such as new energy and new infrastructure, enhancing the leverage effect of special bonds [4][5] Group 3: Support for Economic Growth - The central government has introduced policies to support the cultivation of new economic growth drivers, particularly in high-quality manufacturing development [5][6] - A budget of 3 billion yuan will be allocated in 2024 to support pilot cities in upgrading their manufacturing sectors through digital transformation [6] - The Ministry will also support urban renewal actions in major cities and enhance infrastructure to better leverage government investment [6][7]

经济发展整体效能的"倍增器" 我国拟从今年开始连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建 设。5月13日国务院召开的支持"两重"建设部署动员视频会议指出，"发行超长期特别国债支持'两重'建 设，是党中央着眼强国建设和民族复兴全局作出的一项重大决策部署，是推进中国式现代化、推动高质 量发展、把握发展主动权的重要抓手"。 "超长期特别国债的发行和使用，将专项用于'两重'建设，无疑对我国经济发展整体效能可产生深远影 响。"中国信息协会常务理事、国研新经济研究院创始院长朱克力在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表 示，一方面，超长期特别国债的发行，有助于缓解国家财政短期压力；另一方面，通过专项支持"两 重"建设，超长期特别国债将推动关键领域技术突破和产业升级，从而带动整个产业链协同发展。 中国财政学会绩效管理专委会副主任委员张依群也对《证券日报》记者表示，当前我国经济正处于结构 转型、技术升级、能量积蓄的发展关键时期，经济要实现稳中求进、稳中求胜的高质量发展，必须要有 强力的政策和资金作为支撑，必须实施积极的财政政策提供坚实保障，财政需要灵活运用"一减一增"原 则，即在连续实施的大规模减税降费政 ...

记者 刘 琪 韩 昱 今日（5月17日），财政部公开招标发行400亿元人民币30年期特别国债，票面利率通过竞争性招标确 定，这期国债从招标结束至2024年5月20日进行分销，5月22日起上市交易。本期国债也正式拉开了本次 万亿元超长期特别国债发行的序幕。 今年《政府工作报告》提出，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施 和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。根据财政部发布的2024年超长期特别国债发行有关安 排，今年拟发行超长期特别国债的期限分别为20年、30年、50年，付息方式均为按半年付息。 事实上，我国曾在1998年、2007年和2020年分别发行过三次特别国债，对经济社会稳定向好发展产生了 积极影响。那么，当前我国为何要发行超长期特别国债？本轮超长期特别国债"特别"之处在哪？货币政 策又将如何配合？《证券日报》记者就上述问题采访了多位业内专家。 "发行超长期特别国债既保增长，又促创新；既利当前，又惠长远；既可助力实体经济，又可推进国家 中长期战略布局。"中国商业经济学会副会长、华德榜创始人宋向清在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认 为，这次发行超长期特别国债具有战略性、综合性 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first re-issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total competitive bidding amount of 35 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 2.10% [1] - In July, three issues of ultra-long special government bonds were completed, totaling 206 billion yuan, making it the second-largest monthly issuance this year [1] - As of August 1, 2023, 7,960 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds have been issued, achieving 61% of the annual target of 13 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the project list for "two major" construction projects has been fully allocated, with a total of 800 billion yuan, and 6.9 billion yuan for the third batch of funds has been allocated [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and promote industrial chain expansion, thereby enhancing new productive forces [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds has effectively stimulated consumer willingness by providing direct subsidies, lowering costs for purchasing new products, and promoting consumption upgrades [3] Group 3 - The accelerated issuance of ultra-long special government bonds serves as a stabilizer for maintaining economic stability and acts as a catalyst for fostering long-term growth momentum [3]

记者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨周上祺 根据新华社报道，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议（以下简称"会议"），会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作， 包括"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""在保障和改善民生中扩大消费需求"等。如何理解中央政治局会议的有关部 署？下半年经济政策的侧重点在哪里？针对相关问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了银河证券首席经济学家章俊。 章俊表示，积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策仍将坚持，超长期特别国债、专项债、政策性金融工具等既定政策不会半途 退出，不搞"急转弯"，目的是稳住企业、就业、市场预期，避免政策摇摆放大经济波动。同时，调控政策并非一成不变，而是 会根据经济运行的实际情况、市场情绪的变动、外部环境的突发事件等因素，及时调整政策的方向和力度。 货币政策方面，章俊预计下半年的首要目标仍然是经济增长和充分就业，下半年降息降准依然有望适时落地，货币宽松力度或 将超出市场预期。另外，政策、资金向"投资于人"再深化，可以强化民生领域资金投入，继续加大教育、医疗、养老、育儿等 领域的财政支持力度。同时，加强人力资本投资。此外，持续优化财政资金支出结构，重点投向民生领域，向困难地区和欠发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for stable and flexible economic policies to address current challenges while maintaining growth and employment [1][5][6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of continuous and stable fiscal and monetary policies, with no abrupt changes to existing measures [6][7] - The focus for the second half of the year will be on enhancing consumer demand and improving living standards through targeted investments in education, healthcare, and social services [2][11] Group 2 - The economic growth target remains a priority, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support growth and employment [2][9] - The shift from "maximizing policy tool effectiveness" to "precise implementation" indicates a focus on quality over quantity in policy measures [8] - The emphasis on developing service consumption as a new growth point reflects a strategic pivot towards enhancing consumer spending in the service sector [10] Group 3 - The government aims to deepen investments in human capital and social welfare, with specific measures to increase funding for essential services and support disadvantaged regions [11] - The adjustment in policy regarding competition regulation signifies a broader approach to market governance, moving beyond just price control to encompass various forms of unfair competition [12][13]