2025.08. 22 本文字数：1631，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计 约15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支 出超出收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增速（9.3%） 明显高于经济增速（上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%），折射出更加积极财政政策的落地。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为，整体来看，前7个月财政数据总量和结构基本延续持续改善 趋势。在土地收入维持平稳、印花税（含证券交易印花税）大幅增长情形下，7月广义财政收入增速 改善、回暖。在政府债发行前置下，广义财政支出力度加快上行，对经济增长起到了重要支撑。 今年以来，广义财政收入降幅持续缩窄，直至今年前7个月这一数据与去年同期持平。这主要得益于 税收收入和地方政府土地出让收入降幅的缩窄。 财政部数据显示，今年一季度全国税收收入同比下降3.5%，此后四个月税 ...

Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first half of the year reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but showed a positive trend with three consecutive months of growth starting from April [1] - Key tax categories such as domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax exhibited stable growth, with significant increases in tax revenue from the equipment manufacturing and modern service industries [1] Expenditure Summary - Total national general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, education expenditures by 5.9%, health expenditures by 4.3%, and science and technology expenditures by 9.1%, indicating a strong focus on improving living standards [2] - The increase in expenditures is aligned with the government's commitment to enhance residents' consumption capacity and promote social equity [2] Debt and Investment Summary - The issuance of special government bonds has played a crucial role in stabilizing investment and promoting consumption, with 658.3 billion yuan allocated for special long-term bonds to support key projects [3] - A total of 26 billion yuan in new local government general and special bonds was issued to support major project construction [3] - The management of local government debt has shown positive results, with 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds issued by the end of June, effectively alleviating liquidity pressure [3] Overall Fiscal Performance - The fiscal performance for the first half of 2025 is characterized by a robust balance between revenue and expenditure, reflecting the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies [4] - Despite the positive indicators, challenges remain due to complex domestic and international economic conditions, necessitating continued proactive fiscal measures [4] - The government aims to enhance the efficiency of fiscal fund utilization and adapt policies to support consumer spending and living standards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant role of proactive fiscal policy in stabilizing China's economy in the first half of 2025, highlighting the unprecedented measures taken to stimulate growth amid challenging domestic and international conditions [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Overview - Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has implemented proactive fiscal policies for 17 consecutive years, utilizing increased spending, tax reductions, and government debt issuance to stimulate demand and promote economic recovery [2]. - This year, the government introduced a "more proactive fiscal policy," with a fiscal deficit target set at around 4% and a total new government debt scale reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. Economic Resilience - Despite pressures from trade wars, real estate market adjustments, and competitive challenges, China's economy has shown resilience, supported by consumer demand driven by "old-for-new" policies, high manufacturing investment, and robust infrastructure spending [3]. - The fiscal policy's effectiveness is reflected in the significant increase in government spending, which outpaced revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, indicating a strong fiscal response [5]. Fiscal Expenditure Data - In the first five months of 2025, broad fiscal expenditure reached 14.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6%, while expenditure exceeded revenue by 3.3 trillion yuan, marking a 46.5% increase [4]. - Social security, education, and healthcare accounted for 41.1% of total spending, up 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024, with science and technology spending growing by 6.5% [6]. Future Fiscal Policy Directions - Looking ahead, the second half of 2025 is expected to present greater economic challenges, including the impact of trade wars and ongoing real estate adjustments [9]. - The Ministry of Finance has outlined five key tasks for future fiscal work, focusing on accelerating policy implementation, supporting struggling enterprises, and enhancing investment in technology and innovation [9][10]. Investment and Consumption Promotion - The proactive fiscal measures are expected to continue, with an emphasis on accelerating the issuance of long-term special bonds and supporting consumption and investment [12][13]. - The fiscal space remains substantial, with over 7 trillion yuan available for broad fiscal measures, including a deficit and special bonds [13]. Recommendations for Fiscal Adjustments - It is suggested that fiscal policies be dynamically adjusted based on economic conditions, including potential measures to stabilize the real estate market and support families with multiple children [14]. - There is a possibility of increasing the fiscal deficit target and enhancing support for key sectors such as technology and innovation to further stabilize the economy [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in China, reflecting an evolution in macroeconomic governance and aiming to ensure stable economic operation amidst complex domestic and international conditions [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Strength - The more proactive fiscal policy is characterized by greater policy intensity, including a fiscal deficit rate set at around 4% for 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year [2]. - The national general public budget expenditure is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.4% compared to the previous year [2]. Policy Timing and Proactivity - The more proactive fiscal policy requires timely implementation, with a focus on early action to enhance policy effectiveness [2]. - The government aims to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating a more active approach in policy tools and intensity [2]. Focus on National Conditions - The fiscal deficit rate of around 4% is deemed a scientific judgment based on China's economic development stage, allowing for greater operational space in macroeconomic regulation [3]. - Compared to Western countries, China's government debt risk is manageable, with significant room for borrowing and a substantial amount of quality assets backing the debt [3]. Policy Effectiveness - The proactive fiscal policy aims not only to address short-term economic fluctuations but also to promote long-term high-quality economic development [4]. - The policy emphasizes targeted support for improving people's livelihoods, boosting consumption, and enhancing fiscal support for key sectors [4][7]. Systematic Integration - The article highlights the importance of coordinating fiscal policy with other areas such as monetary policy, employment, and trade to enhance overall policy effectiveness [5]. - A combination of policies is necessary to ensure a cohesive approach to macroeconomic management [5]. Areas of Focus for Implementation - The fiscal policy will focus on utilizing fiscal space effectively, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to guide social expectations, and expanding government debt to support growth and structural adjustments [6]. - The government plans to allocate 44 billion yuan in new local government special debt limits to support key areas [6]. Structural Optimization - The fiscal expenditure structure will be optimized to enhance support for major national strategic tasks, focusing on improving livelihoods and promoting domestic demand [7]. - The government aims to ensure sustainable fiscal operations while addressing risks in key areas [7]. Policy Coordination - There is a need for better coordination between national strategic planning and related policies to guide economic and social development effectively [8]. - The article stresses the importance of aligning fiscal and monetary policies to create a synergistic effect that supports effective demand growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy in China, as outlined by the Central Economic Work Conference, aiming for a deficit rate of 4% in 2023, the highest in recent years, to support economic growth and stability [1][15]. Policy Goals - The fiscal policy aims to integrate economic and social development goals, increase counter-cyclical adjustments, raise the deficit rate, and optimize expenditure structure while maintaining necessary spending intensity [15][16]. - The deficit scale is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [15]. Tools Arrangement - The government plans to utilize various fiscal tools, including government bonds, fiscal subsidies, special funds, and tax incentives, to enhance policy coordination across fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies [16]. - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government bonds will be issued, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year, to support investment and financial stability [16]. Focus Areas - The fiscal policy will target weak links in high-quality development and economic circulation, with increased support for education, science and technology, social security, and health care, all seeing budget increases of over 5% [2][16]. - Central government transfers to local governments will be increased to 10.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, enhancing local financial support [2][16]. Implementation Rhythm - The government emphasizes a proactive approach to policy implementation, ensuring timely execution of confirmed policies and preparing for new policies to align with market expectations [2][16]. Economic Context - The article highlights the challenges posed by external factors, such as the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs," which necessitate a robust fiscal response to mitigate adverse impacts on China's economy [3][18]. - The fiscal policy is seen as a critical tool to counteract these external risks and support sustainable economic growth [3][18]. Achievements and Future Directions - The implementation of fiscal policies has already shown positive effects, with GDP growth of 5% in the previous year and a strong start to the current year [9][18]. - The government aims to further enhance fiscal policy effectiveness through reforms and improved management practices, focusing on high-quality development and addressing key economic challenges [17][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 fiscal budget proposal, highlighting a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy with an emphasis on flexibility in deficit targets and a focus on key areas such as technology, security, and public welfare [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The 2025 fiscal budget sets a deficit rate of "around 4%", allowing for potential adjustments mid-year, which is a departure from the rigid numerical targets used in previous years [1]. - The budget reflects a more pragmatic approach to nominal GDP growth estimates, revising the implicit nominal GDP growth rate down from 7.4% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Spending Focus - The fiscal spending for 2025 will increasingly target technology, security, and public welfare, with notable increases in allocations for education, diplomacy, national defense, and scientific research [2]. - In contrast, spending related to infrastructure, rural community development, and transportation is expected to decrease in importance [2]. Group 3: Revenue Adjustments - The budget anticipates a significant reduction in non-tax revenue, with a projected year-on-year decline of 14.2%, reflecting a strategy to lessen reliance on unsustainable revenue sources [3]. - Tax revenue expectations remain high, with positive growth targets set for most tax categories, excluding specific taxes like the tonnage tax on ships and vehicle purchase tax [3]. Group 4: Debt Issuance - The central government's bond issuance is projected to rise, with central government bonds accounting for 56.2% of total government bond issuance, marking a shift where central debt issuance surpasses local [5]. - This indicates a greater responsibility for counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments being placed on the central government [5]. Group 5: Challenges in Fund Revenue - The budget acknowledges potential difficulties in meeting government fund revenue targets due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and declining land use rights revenue [6].